The Singularity Is Near
Encyclopedia
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 update of Raymond Kurzweil
's 1999 book
, The Age of Spiritual Machines
and his 1990 book The Age of Intelligent Machines
. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near future. He proposes a coming technological singularity
, and how we would thus be able to augment our bodies and minds with technology. He describes the singularity as resulting from a combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence).
Four central postulates of the book are as follows:
Kurzweil's speculative reasoning and selective use of growth indicators has been heavily debated and challenged. (See criticisms at Technological Singularity) In response to this, in the last chapter he gives responses to some of the criticisms he has received.
" will be recognized as an achievable goal by humanity. Kurzweil acknowledges that belief in the singularity promotes the paradigm shift
necessary for its advancement. By promoting the "truth" of its coming through predictions that seem remarkable at the time but inevitable after the fact (a global computer network, a computer beating the chess champion, etc.), Kurzweil's popular series of books reinforces the belief that a singularity is unavoidable.
-Hameroff Microtubule
quantum processing (Orch-OR
) and states that if his calculations of the processing capability of the brain are off by a factor of a billion, the double-exponential growth of technology will still catch up to it twenty-four years after his original projections. The Orch-OR
theory is generally discredited among neuroscientists.
In a rebuttal paper, Hameroff asserts that the quantum processing power required for consciousness is at an order of magnitude greater than can be expressed through conventional systems of processing measurement. This argument seems to ignore Kurzweil's premise that accelerating returns in development of present technologies could, in a nominal period, overcome such a barrier. Additionally, other technologies could emerge which greatly lower the time required to reach the Singularity. A notable example would be more advanced forms of quantum computing capable of full neural emulation, which on a large enough scale, could function equivalently to the biological human brain.
s will eventually be able to repair and replace any part of the body that wears out, but relies on other methods of medical technology to prolong our lives long enough to reach the singularity. The usefulness of this medical postulate then becomes a function of how long it will take to reach the singularity, something that has been thrown into question due to the possibility of quantum brain processing explored in many recent books by scientists, such as Roger Penrose
's The Emperor's New Mind
.
es. These illnesses range from cancer
to Alzheimer's disease
and even Down syndrome
. 130 different nanotechnology-related devices were invented in 2006 that could possibly eliminate the DNA errors that cause cancer someday. A majority of the statements about nanobots eliminating DNA errors and pathogens were emphasized frequently in Kurzweil's futurist book The Singularity Is Near
; published in 2005 by an American publishing company.
The only permanent way to get rid of the DNA errors (that are a part of cancer cell
s and/or the various pathogen
s found in other illnesses) is by injecting nanobot
s (ideally multifunctional nanoparticles) into the patient's body. The high levels of SP2 protein that are found in cancer cells would be neutralized. The same nanobots that would lower the levels of SP2 protein inside the patient's stem cells could also repair the long-term damage to the person's DNA strand so that his/her descendants are less likely to acquire cancer and/other diseases in the first place. All methods of death
that are not caused by accidents are caused by a long line of DNA errors that are never corrected over a very long period of time. However, this method may not be possible or even affordable until the year 2025 (the Kanzius RF Therapy
is scheduled to begin testing in 2012 but will be extremely difficult to acquire for many years). All research about curing cancer with nanorobotics has been currently restricted to small animals like mice
. Thanks to the cost-performance ratio
, nanomedicine is becoming more affordable for the average person year by year. It may become possible to have extremely effective and extremely inexpensive treatments for AIDS
that will eliminate the DNA errors that are causing the disease through nanomedicine
.
Even with the developed countries of the world competing against each other to be the first to create a sustainable nanorobotics program that can cure cancers and other diseases caused by DNA errors, government oversight (in addition to further oversight by the United Nations
) will allow the DNA error-eliminating procedures to become increasingly affordable to everyone.
Underlying all of Kurzweil's ideas regarding the progress of technology and the Singularity is the Law of Accelerating Returns. The Law states that technological progress occurs exponentially instead of linearly, meaning that each new advancement enables several higher advancements instead of just one higher advancement, and concordantly, every year, more useful inventions and discoveries are made than were made in the last.
The Law of Accelerating Returns has a very important consequence in that extrapolation of exponentially improving technology trends into the future suggests, by Kurzweil's analysis, that highly advanced technologies will arrive far sooner than linear-thinking people assume. The creation of the modern Internet and the completion of the Human Genome Project are prominent examples illustrative of this point. Both were multi-year projects that relied on computer technology to reach completion. In both cases, critics derided them as hopeless since, in the beginning, both relied on computers that would have taken decades to process all of the necessary data. However, these critics had failed to take into account the exponentially improving nature of computer processing speeds and price-performance, and thus failed to see that, within a few years, the two projects would have access to vastly superior computers that would drastically shorten their timelines for completion.
Kurzweil lays forth his idea that the fate of the universe is to progress through six different epochs, characterized by the major paradigm shift
that takes place after each one. The universe has already passed through four of these epochs and we are entering epoch five. Each step indirectly produces the next through chemical-, biological-, and technological Evolution
(respectively). The Six Epochs are subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns, which states that each transition occurs more rapidly than the last. Kurzweil supports this final postulate with logarithmic graphs of the chronology of important events in the history of the Universe (i.e. - the Big Bang
, the origin of life, the birth of the human race, the creation of the first computer).
Epoch 1. Physics and Chemistry
This epoch starts at the beginning of the universe. In this epoch, information is mostly held in subatomic structures such as particles and atoms. That is, the most complicated stable objects in the universe do not exceed the molecular scale in size or complexity.
Epoch 2. Biology and DNA
This epoch starts with the beginning of life on Earth, suddenly giving rise to more complicated, yet stable, organisms that are capable of growth and self-sustainment. However, in this epoch organisms do not change within their lifetimes as evolution takes thousands of generations. Moreoever, in this stage, genetic information is stored in DNA molecules.
Epoch 3. Brains
The evolution of life gradually produced more and more complex organisms, necessitating the need for fast central control and thus giving rise to the evolution of brains. With brains, organisms can now change their behavior dynamically to suit changes in the environment and can also learn from past experiences. Evolutionary information is, in this stage, stored in neural patterns.
Epoch 4. Technology
Evolution of brains culminates with the evolution of humans, which possess the ability to create technology. In this stage, technological designs are also subject to evolution and information is held in hardware and software designs.
Epoch 5. The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence
This epoch, which Kurzweil argues we are in the process of entering, is where technology reaches a level of sophistication and fine-structuring comparable with that of biology, allowing the two to merge to create higher forms of life and intelligence.
Epoch 6. The Universe Wakes Up
After mastering the methods of technology and biology, Kurzweil predicts that human/machine civilization will expand its frontiers into the universe, gradually (or perhaps explosively) consuming the contents of the cosmos until the universe reaches a 'saturated' state where all inanimate matter has been converted to substrates for computation and intelligence, and a truly universal super-intelligence takes form.
Next, Kurzweil briefly lays out a number of postulates and consequences in the first chapter as they relate to the Singularity. As stated, the Law of Accelerating Returns implies exponential- and non-linear growth in technological capabilities and human knowledge. Information technologies are experiencing superexponential growth since human economic investment in them increases as they become more powerful.
Human brain-scanning techniques are reliant upon computers and advanced machines, which are all subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns. Therefore, our ability to understand the way the human brain works is improving tremendously every year. Based on the current trends, brain scans should give us a sound understanding of how the human brain works by the mid-2020s. Using that information, scientists should be able to create simulated human brains inside of computers, leading to the first Artificial Intelligence (a thinking computer capable of passing the Turing Test
) by 2029. The computer hardware of that era should also be powerful enough to meet the cognitive needs of a simulated human mind.
Artificial Intelligence would inevitably prove superior to human intelligence since the former would combine the fast speeds, memory capacity and recall, and instant downloading/learning abilities of computers with the creativity and pattern-recognition abilities of the human mind, effectively constituting a being with the strengths of both and the weaknesses of neither. Artificial Intelligences would also have the ability to edit their own software at will to instantly improve themselves, which is an ability humans naturally lack and can only approximate through laborious genetic engineering techniques.
Biology presents inherent and insurmountable limitations that originate at the molecular level. These limitations handicap both potential mental abilities and physical abilities. This reality will inevitably lead to the creation of synthetic replacement parts that are far more durable and capable than natural human organs, limbs and cells. Some humans will choose to incorporate these engineered prostheses into their bodies, becoming cybernetically enhanced.
Nanotechnology will play a major role in human brain augmentation with the advent of brain nanomachines designed specifically for interacting with human neurons. Brain cybernetics of this type would allow human users to vastly expand their cognitive abilities, to experience full-immersion virtual reality, and to directly interface with computers and other mentally augmented humans. Being naturally more powerful, the cybernetic portion of augmented human minds will come to predominate.
A very broad range of advanced nanomachines will also be created, allowing the humans and machines of the future to alter their world with incredible power. Aside from the aforementioned brain augmentation role, nanotechnology could be used for a variety of tasks including a total repair of the Earth's environment and the near instantaneous manipulation of physical objects via foglets
so as to blur the distinction between "real" and "virtual" reality.
Kurzweil foresees the computers of the future using three-dimensional computer chips composed of nanotubes. This architecture will allow them to operate at terahertz speeds. Computer advances like this will eventually make A.I.'s so powerful that they will completely take over the cutting edge of all scientific research and development, and will generate new advancements (including improvements to their own programming) so quickly that normal humans will not be able to follow what is going on. By this point, the Singularity will definitely have been reached.
In the far future, A.I.'s and cybernetic humans will live almost exclusively in full-immersion virtual reality worlds, which will themselves be contained in advanced computers. Computers will grow ever more advanced, but at some point, the bottom limit to transistor size as defined by the laws of Physics will be reached, and performance improvements will only be possible through the creation of new computers or the expansion of existing ones. More and more inanimate matter on the Earth will be restructured to form useful computer substrate, but it will eventually prove insufficient, and the future machine race will radiate out from the Earth in all directions, "saturating" first the solar system
, then the Milky Way galaxy, and eventually the entire cosmos
with "intelligence" by converting unstructured, inanimate "dumb" matter (e.g., Moon rocks, dead gas giant planets, meteoroids) into structured "smart" matter that lives in the sense that it supports thinking, feeling A.I.'s. Entire celestial bodies of countless number across the universe will be totally converted into computer substrate. The length of time it will take to finish the task of "waking up" the universe depends heavily on whether the speed of light can be surpassed or circumvented—the maximum rate of travel of course limiting the speed at which the advanced Earth civilization can spread across space to new locations.
Kurzweil concludes the chapter by stating his belief that, while A.I.'s will inevitably prove vastly superior to humans in every way, he expects them to respect human life and to embody human values.
An increase in order also generally correlates with an increase in complexity. Getting back to the previous example, a modern car has more moving parts than a Model T, and the newer car's parts are also more precisely and elaborately made. Thus, the modern car is more complex. The overall trend towards increasing complexity can also be observed in biology, where genomes of living species have gradually grown in size along with levels of physical diversity and specialization.
Of course, greater order does not necessarily always entail greater complexity. Sometimes, the simpler solution proves superior both in biology and technology, but the general trends in both have been towards more complexity and more order.
The Law of Accelerating Returns states that biological and technological evolution utilize positive feedback, with each improvement building upon the last and enabling the next.
Technological progress in any field consists of a series of "paradigms"—particular methods used to solve certain problems. A given example of a paradigm would be the shrinking of computer transistors to make the computers more powerful. While there are innumerable technological paradigms, all share the same basic life cycles. The advances in the cost-performance of a particular technology, or the Life Cycle of the Paradigm, if graphed, will appear as a sigmoidal S-shape with three distinct phases.
Slow Growth Phase: At this point, the kinks in the technology are still being worked out, and it is still struggling to establish a market base. Growth in price-performance and capabilities is exponential, but still at such an early stage that the growth appears deceptively flat and linear.
Rapid Growth Phase: Begins after the exponential growth passes the "knee of the curve" and explosive growth in the technology's capabilities and user base starts.
Leveling Off Phase: The technology matures as scientists find it increasingly more difficult to make improvements to the same technology in an effort to further address the original need. Growth in usefulness levels off.
Once a technology has reached maturity, it is replaced by a newer, totally different technology, meaning a paradigm shift occurs. This occurred during the 1960s when scientists found it impractical to shrink computer vacuum tubes any further and instead switched to transistors, which were newer and allowed the process of miniaturization to continue.
This process of periodic exponential growth parallels biological evolution in two ways. First, biological evolution also occurs in spurts
and, second, some biological innovations make organisms exponentially better or speed up evolution from that point onwards in an exponential manner. For example, the advent of DNA allowed life forms to evolve much higher levels of complexity and order.
Society's acceptance of new technologies is speeding up exponentially
Technologies experiencing exponential changes:
While Gordon Moore first observed in 1965 that the transistor densities of integrated circuits were doubling every two years, an extended analysis shows that computers have been experiencing exponential improvements to their cost-performance (maximum number of calculations per second per $1,000) since at least 1900, when the very first electromechanical computers were invented. This trend in increasing performance has held steady across five computer paradigm shifts (electromechanical, relay-based, vacuum tube, transistor, and integrated circuit) and is now encapsulated by Moore's Law
. While integrated circuits will—like all paradigms—ultimately reach the limits of their possible capabilities, the exponentially growing performance trend will likely continue via a paradigm shift to a newer technology like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing.
Extrapolating this rate of improvement, supercomputers should be capable of the same number of calculations per second as a human brain by 2010, and personal computers should be at this level around the year 2020. The amount of improvement in nanoscience at the same rate also see 2020 as a nexus point.
and his production company Ptolemaic Productions licensed the rights to The Singularity Is Near from Kurzweil. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy would direct and produce the film Transcendent Man, which would go on to critical and commercial success in 2011, bringing more attention to the book. Kurzweil considers Doug Wolen's coming documentary "The Singularity" to be closer to form to Kurzweil's own views
Raymond Kurzweil
Raymond "Ray" Kurzweil is an American author, inventor and futurist. He is involved in fields such as optical character recognition , text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments...
's 1999 book
Prophecy
Prophecy is a process in which one or more messages that have been communicated to a prophet are then communicated to others. Such messages typically involve divine inspiration, interpretation, or revelation of conditioned events to come as well as testimonies or repeated revelations that the...
, The Age of Spiritual Machines
The Age of Spiritual Machines
The Age of Spiritual Machines is a book by futurist Ray Kurzweil about the future course of humanity, particularly relating to the development of artificial intelligence and its impact on human consciousness...
and his 1990 book The Age of Intelligent Machines
The Age of Intelligent Machines
The Age Of Intelligent Machines is the title of an artificial intelligence documentary and book by futurist Ray Kurzweil; this was his first book and it won the Most Outstanding Computer Science Book of 1990 award by the Association of American Publishers.Many guest "A.I. experts" were...
. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near future. He proposes a coming technological singularity
Technological singularity
Technological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
, and how we would thus be able to augment our bodies and minds with technology. He describes the singularity as resulting from a combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence).
Four central postulates of the book are as follows:
- A technological-evolutionary point known as "the singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
" exists as an achievable goal for humanity. - Through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing toward the singularity at an exponential rateExponential growthExponential growth occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value...
. - The functionality of the human brainHuman brainThe human brain has the same general structure as the brains of other mammals, but is over three times larger than the brain of a typical mammal with an equivalent body size. Estimates for the number of neurons in the human brain range from 80 to 120 billion...
is quantifiable in terms of technology that we can build in the near future. - Medical advancements make it possible for a significant number of his generation (Baby Boomers) to live long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain.
Kurzweil's speculative reasoning and selective use of growth indicators has been heavily debated and challenged. (See criticisms at Technological Singularity) In response to this, in the last chapter he gives responses to some of the criticisms he has received.
Acceptance and striving for the idea of living forever
Kurzweil asserts that a technological-evolutionary jump known as "the singularityTechnological singularity
Technological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
" will be recognized as an achievable goal by humanity. Kurzweil acknowledges that belief in the singularity promotes the paradigm shift
Paradigm shift
A Paradigm shift is, according to Thomas Kuhn in his influential book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , a change in the basic assumptions, or paradigms, within the ruling theory of science...
necessary for its advancement. By promoting the "truth" of its coming through predictions that seem remarkable at the time but inevitable after the fact (a global computer network, a computer beating the chess champion, etc.), Kurzweil's popular series of books reinforces the belief that a singularity is unavoidable.
The law of accelerating returns
Kurzweil asserts in his Law of Accelerating Returns that technology is progressing toward the Singularity at an exponential rate, relying almost entirely on empirical data. He expands on Moore's Law with models showing that not only the return, but the rate of return is increasing exponentially.An objective measurement of cerebral processing power
Kurzweil asserts that the functionality of the brain is quantifiable in terms of technology that we can build in the near future. Kurzweil's earlier books showed cerebral processing power as primarily the number of computations in a square inch multiplied by the area of the brain. In this update, however, he acknowledges the possibility of PenroseRoger Penrose
Sir Roger Penrose OM FRS is an English mathematical physicist and Emeritus Rouse Ball Professor of Mathematics at the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford and Emeritus Fellow of Wadham College...
-Hameroff Microtubule
Microtubule
Microtubules are a component of the cytoskeleton. These rope-like polymers of tubulin can grow as long as 25 micrometers and are highly dynamic. The outer diameter of microtubule is about 25 nm. Microtubules are important for maintaining cell structure, providing platforms for intracellular...
quantum processing (Orch-OR
Orch-OR
Orch-OR is a theory of consciousness, which is the joint work of theoretical physicist Sir Roger Penrose and anesthesiologist Stuart Hameroff. Mainstream theories assume that consciousness emerges from the brain, and focus particularly on complex computation at synapses that allow communication...
) and states that if his calculations of the processing capability of the brain are off by a factor of a billion, the double-exponential growth of technology will still catch up to it twenty-four years after his original projections. The Orch-OR
Orch-OR
Orch-OR is a theory of consciousness, which is the joint work of theoretical physicist Sir Roger Penrose and anesthesiologist Stuart Hameroff. Mainstream theories assume that consciousness emerges from the brain, and focus particularly on complex computation at synapses that allow communication...
theory is generally discredited among neuroscientists.
In a rebuttal paper, Hameroff asserts that the quantum processing power required for consciousness is at an order of magnitude greater than can be expressed through conventional systems of processing measurement. This argument seems to ignore Kurzweil's premise that accelerating returns in development of present technologies could, in a nominal period, overcome such a barrier. Additionally, other technologies could emerge which greatly lower the time required to reach the Singularity. A notable example would be more advanced forms of quantum computing capable of full neural emulation, which on a large enough scale, could function equivalently to the biological human brain.
Sufficient medical advancements
Kurzweil asserts that medical advancements will keep his generation alive long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain. Kurzweil explains how nanobotNanorobotics
Nanorobotics is the emerging technology field of creating machines or robots whose components are at or close to the scale of a nanometer . More specifically, nanorobotics refers to the nanotechnology engineering discipline of designing and building nanorobots, with devices ranging in size from...
s will eventually be able to repair and replace any part of the body that wears out, but relies on other methods of medical technology to prolong our lives long enough to reach the singularity. The usefulness of this medical postulate then becomes a function of how long it will take to reach the singularity, something that has been thrown into question due to the possibility of quantum brain processing explored in many recent books by scientists, such as Roger Penrose
Roger Penrose
Sir Roger Penrose OM FRS is an English mathematical physicist and Emeritus Rouse Ball Professor of Mathematics at the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford and Emeritus Fellow of Wadham College...
's The Emperor's New Mind
The Emperor's New Mind
The Emperor's New Mind: Concerning Computers, Minds and The Laws of Physics is a 1989 book by mathematical physicist Sir Roger Penrose.Penrose presents the argument that human consciousness is non-algorithmic, and thus is not capable of being modeled by a conventional Turing machine-type of digital...
.
DNA errors
According to Ray Kurzweil, DNA errors (in the form of either pathogens, viruses, and/or cancer cells) are the causes of most major illnessIllness
Illness is a state of poor health. Illness is sometimes considered another word for disease. Others maintain that fine distinctions exist...
es. These illnesses range from cancer
Cancer
Cancer , known medically as a malignant neoplasm, is a large group of different diseases, all involving unregulated cell growth. In cancer, cells divide and grow uncontrollably, forming malignant tumors, and invade nearby parts of the body. The cancer may also spread to more distant parts of the...
to Alzheimer's disease
Alzheimer's disease
Alzheimer's disease also known in medical literature as Alzheimer disease is the most common form of dementia. There is no cure for the disease, which worsens as it progresses, and eventually leads to death...
and even Down syndrome
Down syndrome
Down syndrome, or Down's syndrome, trisomy 21, is a chromosomal condition caused by the presence of all or part of an extra 21st chromosome. It is named after John Langdon Down, the British physician who described the syndrome in 1866. The condition was clinically described earlier in the 19th...
. 130 different nanotechnology-related devices were invented in 2006 that could possibly eliminate the DNA errors that cause cancer someday. A majority of the statements about nanobots eliminating DNA errors and pathogens were emphasized frequently in Kurzweil's futurist book The Singularity Is Near
The Singularity Is Near
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 update of Raymond Kurzweil's 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines and his 1990 book The Age of Intelligent Machines. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near future...
; published in 2005 by an American publishing company.
The only permanent way to get rid of the DNA errors (that are a part of cancer cell
Cancer cell
Cancer cells are cells that grow and divide at an unregulated, quickened pace. Although cancer cells can be quite common in a person they are only malignant when the other cells fail to recognize and/or destroy them. In the past a common belief was that cancer cells failed to be recognized and...
s and/or the various pathogen
Pathogen
A pathogen gignomai "I give birth to") or infectious agent — colloquially, a germ — is a microbe or microorganism such as a virus, bacterium, prion, or fungus that causes disease in its animal or plant host...
s found in other illnesses) is by injecting nanobot
Nanorobotics
Nanorobotics is the emerging technology field of creating machines or robots whose components are at or close to the scale of a nanometer . More specifically, nanorobotics refers to the nanotechnology engineering discipline of designing and building nanorobots, with devices ranging in size from...
s (ideally multifunctional nanoparticles) into the patient's body. The high levels of SP2 protein that are found in cancer cells would be neutralized. The same nanobots that would lower the levels of SP2 protein inside the patient's stem cells could also repair the long-term damage to the person's DNA strand so that his/her descendants are less likely to acquire cancer and/other diseases in the first place. All methods of death
Death
Death is the permanent termination of the biological functions that sustain a living organism. Phenomena which commonly bring about death include old age, predation, malnutrition, disease, and accidents or trauma resulting in terminal injury....
that are not caused by accidents are caused by a long line of DNA errors that are never corrected over a very long period of time. However, this method may not be possible or even affordable until the year 2025 (the Kanzius RF Therapy
Kanzius RF Therapy
Kanzius RF Therapy is a patented technology of ThermMed LLC, enterprise created by the late John Kanzius. The therapy aims to insert metallic nanoparticles in or around cancerous cells and then exciting these particles using radio waves; the energy from the radio waves creates heat which burns the...
is scheduled to begin testing in 2012 but will be extremely difficult to acquire for many years). All research about curing cancer with nanorobotics has been currently restricted to small animals like mice
Mouse
A mouse is a small mammal belonging to the order of rodents. The best known mouse species is the common house mouse . It is also a popular pet. In some places, certain kinds of field mice are also common. This rodent is eaten by large birds such as hawks and eagles...
. Thanks to the cost-performance ratio
Price/performance ratio
In economics and engineering, the price/performance ratio refers to a product's ability to deliver performance, of any sort, for its price. Generally speaking, products with a higher price/performance ratio are more desirable, excluding other factors....
, nanomedicine is becoming more affordable for the average person year by year. It may become possible to have extremely effective and extremely inexpensive treatments for AIDS
AIDS
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a disease of the human immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus...
that will eliminate the DNA errors that are causing the disease through nanomedicine
Nanomedicine
Nanomedicine is the medical application of nanotechnology. Nanomedicine ranges from the medical applications of nanomaterials, to nanoelectronic biosensors, and even possible future applications of molecular nanotechnology. Current problems for nanomedicine involve understanding the issues related...
.
Even with the developed countries of the world competing against each other to be the first to create a sustainable nanorobotics program that can cure cancers and other diseases caused by DNA errors, government oversight (in addition to further oversight by the United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
) will allow the DNA error-eliminating procedures to become increasingly affordable to everyone.
Organization
- Prologue: The Power of Ideas
- Chapter 1: The Six Epochs
- Chapter 2: A Theory of Technology Evolution
- Chapter 3: Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
- Chapter 4: Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence
- Chapter 5: GNR (genetics, nanotech, robots)
- Chapter 6: The Impact
- Chapter 7: Ich bin ein Singularitarian
- Chapter 8: The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR
- Chapter 9: Response to critics
- Epilogue
Chapter One: The Six Epochs
Kurzweil first defines the Singularity as a point in the future when technological advances begin to happen so rapidly that normal humans cannot keep pace, and are "cut out of the loop." Kurzweil emphasizes that this will have a profound, disruptive effect on human societies and on everyday life, and will mark the end of human history as we know it. In place of normal humans, Strong Artificial Intelligences and cybernetically augmented humans will become the dominant forms of sentient life on the Earth. The Singularity will be initiated once self-improving Artificial Intelligences (sentient, highly intelligent computer programs capable of quickly redesigning themselves and their offspring to improve performance) come into existence.Underlying all of Kurzweil's ideas regarding the progress of technology and the Singularity is the Law of Accelerating Returns. The Law states that technological progress occurs exponentially instead of linearly, meaning that each new advancement enables several higher advancements instead of just one higher advancement, and concordantly, every year, more useful inventions and discoveries are made than were made in the last.
The Law of Accelerating Returns has a very important consequence in that extrapolation of exponentially improving technology trends into the future suggests, by Kurzweil's analysis, that highly advanced technologies will arrive far sooner than linear-thinking people assume. The creation of the modern Internet and the completion of the Human Genome Project are prominent examples illustrative of this point. Both were multi-year projects that relied on computer technology to reach completion. In both cases, critics derided them as hopeless since, in the beginning, both relied on computers that would have taken decades to process all of the necessary data. However, these critics had failed to take into account the exponentially improving nature of computer processing speeds and price-performance, and thus failed to see that, within a few years, the two projects would have access to vastly superior computers that would drastically shorten their timelines for completion.
Kurzweil lays forth his idea that the fate of the universe is to progress through six different epochs, characterized by the major paradigm shift
Paradigm shift
A Paradigm shift is, according to Thomas Kuhn in his influential book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , a change in the basic assumptions, or paradigms, within the ruling theory of science...
that takes place after each one. The universe has already passed through four of these epochs and we are entering epoch five. Each step indirectly produces the next through chemical-, biological-, and technological Evolution
Evolution
Evolution is any change across successive generations in the heritable characteristics of biological populations. Evolutionary processes give rise to diversity at every level of biological organisation, including species, individual organisms and molecules such as DNA and proteins.Life on Earth...
(respectively). The Six Epochs are subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns, which states that each transition occurs more rapidly than the last. Kurzweil supports this final postulate with logarithmic graphs of the chronology of important events in the history of the Universe (i.e. - the Big Bang
Big Bang
The Big Bang theory is the prevailing cosmological model that explains the early development of the Universe. According to the Big Bang theory, the Universe was once in an extremely hot and dense state which expanded rapidly. This rapid expansion caused the young Universe to cool and resulted in...
, the origin of life, the birth of the human race, the creation of the first computer).
Epoch 1. Physics and Chemistry
This epoch starts at the beginning of the universe. In this epoch, information is mostly held in subatomic structures such as particles and atoms. That is, the most complicated stable objects in the universe do not exceed the molecular scale in size or complexity.
Epoch 2. Biology and DNA
This epoch starts with the beginning of life on Earth, suddenly giving rise to more complicated, yet stable, organisms that are capable of growth and self-sustainment. However, in this epoch organisms do not change within their lifetimes as evolution takes thousands of generations. Moreoever, in this stage, genetic information is stored in DNA molecules.
Epoch 3. Brains
The evolution of life gradually produced more and more complex organisms, necessitating the need for fast central control and thus giving rise to the evolution of brains. With brains, organisms can now change their behavior dynamically to suit changes in the environment and can also learn from past experiences. Evolutionary information is, in this stage, stored in neural patterns.
Epoch 4. Technology
Evolution of brains culminates with the evolution of humans, which possess the ability to create technology. In this stage, technological designs are also subject to evolution and information is held in hardware and software designs.
Epoch 5. The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence
This epoch, which Kurzweil argues we are in the process of entering, is where technology reaches a level of sophistication and fine-structuring comparable with that of biology, allowing the two to merge to create higher forms of life and intelligence.
Epoch 6. The Universe Wakes Up
After mastering the methods of technology and biology, Kurzweil predicts that human/machine civilization will expand its frontiers into the universe, gradually (or perhaps explosively) consuming the contents of the cosmos until the universe reaches a 'saturated' state where all inanimate matter has been converted to substrates for computation and intelligence, and a truly universal super-intelligence takes form.
Next, Kurzweil briefly lays out a number of postulates and consequences in the first chapter as they relate to the Singularity. As stated, the Law of Accelerating Returns implies exponential- and non-linear growth in technological capabilities and human knowledge. Information technologies are experiencing superexponential growth since human economic investment in them increases as they become more powerful.
Human brain-scanning techniques are reliant upon computers and advanced machines, which are all subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns. Therefore, our ability to understand the way the human brain works is improving tremendously every year. Based on the current trends, brain scans should give us a sound understanding of how the human brain works by the mid-2020s. Using that information, scientists should be able to create simulated human brains inside of computers, leading to the first Artificial Intelligence (a thinking computer capable of passing the Turing Test
Turing test
The Turing test is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour. In Turing's original illustrative example, a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with a human and a machine designed to generate performance indistinguishable from that of a human being. All...
) by 2029. The computer hardware of that era should also be powerful enough to meet the cognitive needs of a simulated human mind.
Artificial Intelligence would inevitably prove superior to human intelligence since the former would combine the fast speeds, memory capacity and recall, and instant downloading/learning abilities of computers with the creativity and pattern-recognition abilities of the human mind, effectively constituting a being with the strengths of both and the weaknesses of neither. Artificial Intelligences would also have the ability to edit their own software at will to instantly improve themselves, which is an ability humans naturally lack and can only approximate through laborious genetic engineering techniques.
Biology presents inherent and insurmountable limitations that originate at the molecular level. These limitations handicap both potential mental abilities and physical abilities. This reality will inevitably lead to the creation of synthetic replacement parts that are far more durable and capable than natural human organs, limbs and cells. Some humans will choose to incorporate these engineered prostheses into their bodies, becoming cybernetically enhanced.
Nanotechnology will play a major role in human brain augmentation with the advent of brain nanomachines designed specifically for interacting with human neurons. Brain cybernetics of this type would allow human users to vastly expand their cognitive abilities, to experience full-immersion virtual reality, and to directly interface with computers and other mentally augmented humans. Being naturally more powerful, the cybernetic portion of augmented human minds will come to predominate.
A very broad range of advanced nanomachines will also be created, allowing the humans and machines of the future to alter their world with incredible power. Aside from the aforementioned brain augmentation role, nanotechnology could be used for a variety of tasks including a total repair of the Earth's environment and the near instantaneous manipulation of physical objects via foglets
Utility fog
Utility fog is a hypothetical collection of tiny robots that can replicate a physical structure. As such, it is a form of self-reconfiguring modular robotics.-Conception:...
so as to blur the distinction between "real" and "virtual" reality.
Kurzweil foresees the computers of the future using three-dimensional computer chips composed of nanotubes. This architecture will allow them to operate at terahertz speeds. Computer advances like this will eventually make A.I.'s so powerful that they will completely take over the cutting edge of all scientific research and development, and will generate new advancements (including improvements to their own programming) so quickly that normal humans will not be able to follow what is going on. By this point, the Singularity will definitely have been reached.
In the far future, A.I.'s and cybernetic humans will live almost exclusively in full-immersion virtual reality worlds, which will themselves be contained in advanced computers. Computers will grow ever more advanced, but at some point, the bottom limit to transistor size as defined by the laws of Physics will be reached, and performance improvements will only be possible through the creation of new computers or the expansion of existing ones. More and more inanimate matter on the Earth will be restructured to form useful computer substrate, but it will eventually prove insufficient, and the future machine race will radiate out from the Earth in all directions, "saturating" first the solar system
Solar System
The Solar System consists of the Sun and the astronomical objects gravitationally bound in orbit around it, all of which formed from the collapse of a giant molecular cloud approximately 4.6 billion years ago. The vast majority of the system's mass is in the Sun...
, then the Milky Way galaxy, and eventually the entire cosmos
Cosmos
In the general sense, a cosmos is an orderly or harmonious system. It originates from the Greek term κόσμος , meaning "order" or "ornament" and is antithetical to the concept of chaos. Today, the word is generally used as a synonym of the word Universe . The word cosmos originates from the same root...
with "intelligence" by converting unstructured, inanimate "dumb" matter (e.g., Moon rocks, dead gas giant planets, meteoroids) into structured "smart" matter that lives in the sense that it supports thinking, feeling A.I.'s. Entire celestial bodies of countless number across the universe will be totally converted into computer substrate. The length of time it will take to finish the task of "waking up" the universe depends heavily on whether the speed of light can be surpassed or circumvented—the maximum rate of travel of course limiting the speed at which the advanced Earth civilization can spread across space to new locations.
Kurzweil concludes the chapter by stating his belief that, while A.I.'s will inevitably prove vastly superior to humans in every way, he expects them to respect human life and to embody human values.
Chapter Two: A Theory of Technology Evolution
Each stage of biological evolution and technological innovation increases the level of biological or technological order and enables entry into the next stage. Order in this case is defined as how well the form (genetic or physical) suits the given function. For example, a modern car is better suited for transporting human occupants than a Model T because the newer vehicle possesses numerous design improvements the older one lacks.An increase in order also generally correlates with an increase in complexity. Getting back to the previous example, a modern car has more moving parts than a Model T, and the newer car's parts are also more precisely and elaborately made. Thus, the modern car is more complex. The overall trend towards increasing complexity can also be observed in biology, where genomes of living species have gradually grown in size along with levels of physical diversity and specialization.
Of course, greater order does not necessarily always entail greater complexity. Sometimes, the simpler solution proves superior both in biology and technology, but the general trends in both have been towards more complexity and more order.
The Law of Accelerating Returns states that biological and technological evolution utilize positive feedback, with each improvement building upon the last and enabling the next.
Technological progress in any field consists of a series of "paradigms"—particular methods used to solve certain problems. A given example of a paradigm would be the shrinking of computer transistors to make the computers more powerful. While there are innumerable technological paradigms, all share the same basic life cycles. The advances in the cost-performance of a particular technology, or the Life Cycle of the Paradigm, if graphed, will appear as a sigmoidal S-shape with three distinct phases.
Slow Growth Phase: At this point, the kinks in the technology are still being worked out, and it is still struggling to establish a market base. Growth in price-performance and capabilities is exponential, but still at such an early stage that the growth appears deceptively flat and linear.
Rapid Growth Phase: Begins after the exponential growth passes the "knee of the curve" and explosive growth in the technology's capabilities and user base starts.
Leveling Off Phase: The technology matures as scientists find it increasingly more difficult to make improvements to the same technology in an effort to further address the original need. Growth in usefulness levels off.
Once a technology has reached maturity, it is replaced by a newer, totally different technology, meaning a paradigm shift occurs. This occurred during the 1960s when scientists found it impractical to shrink computer vacuum tubes any further and instead switched to transistors, which were newer and allowed the process of miniaturization to continue.
This process of periodic exponential growth parallels biological evolution in two ways. First, biological evolution also occurs in spurts
Punctuated equilibrium
Punctuated equilibrium is a theory in evolutionary biology which proposes that most species will exhibit little net evolutionary change for most of their geological history, remaining in an extended state called stasis...
and, second, some biological innovations make organisms exponentially better or speed up evolution from that point onwards in an exponential manner. For example, the advent of DNA allowed life forms to evolve much higher levels of complexity and order.
Society's acceptance of new technologies is speeding up exponentially
- U.S. Phone company revenues and daily number of American phone calls (increasing exponentially)
- Number of U.S. cell phone subscribers (increasing exponentially)
- Time until major new inventions reach mass use by American consumers (decreasing exponentially)
Technologies experiencing exponential changes:
- Increasing exponentially:
- Microprocessor clock speeds
- Transistors per microprocessor
- Processor performance
- Dynamic RAM price performance (improving exponentially)
- Random Access Memory bits per dollar
- Magnetic data storage bits per dollar
- Wireless Internet and phone services price performance
- Number of Internet hosts
- Bytes of Internet traffic
- Internet backbone bandwidth (increasing in a very terraced, quasi-exponential manner)
- Number of scientific citations for nanotechnology research
- Number of U.S. nanotech patents
- Decreasing exponentially:
- Average Transistor price
- Transistor Manufacturing costs
- Dynamic RAM size (smallest feature sizes decreasing exponentially)
- Microprocessor costs
- DNA sequencing costs per base pair
- Mechanical device sizes
While Gordon Moore first observed in 1965 that the transistor densities of integrated circuits were doubling every two years, an extended analysis shows that computers have been experiencing exponential improvements to their cost-performance (maximum number of calculations per second per $1,000) since at least 1900, when the very first electromechanical computers were invented. This trend in increasing performance has held steady across five computer paradigm shifts (electromechanical, relay-based, vacuum tube, transistor, and integrated circuit) and is now encapsulated by Moore's Law
Moore's Law
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
. While integrated circuits will—like all paradigms—ultimately reach the limits of their possible capabilities, the exponentially growing performance trend will likely continue via a paradigm shift to a newer technology like memristors or three-dimensional molecular computing.
Extrapolating this rate of improvement, supercomputers should be capable of the same number of calculations per second as a human brain by 2010, and personal computers should be at this level around the year 2020. The amount of improvement in nanoscience at the same rate also see 2020 as a nexus point.
2010
- Supercomputers will have the same raw power as human brains (although not yet the equivalently flexible software).
- Computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, being embedded in clothing and in everyday objects.
- Displays built into our eyeglasses will provide full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality.
2010s
- More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation.
- High-quality broadband Internet access will become available almost everywhere.
- Eyeglasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce virtual reality will be developed. They will also come with speakers or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with sounds. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for advertisingAdvertisingAdvertising is a form of communication used to persuade an audience to take some action with respect to products, ideas, or services. Most commonly, the desired result is to drive consumer behavior with respect to a commercial offering, although political and ideological advertising is also common...
as advertising will be wirelessly transmitted to them as one walks by various business establishments. - The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. (see Augmented RealityAugmented realityAugmented reality is a live, direct or indirect, view of a physical, real-world environment whose elements are augmented by computer-generated sensory input such as sound, video, graphics or GPS data. It is related to a more general concept called mediated reality, in which a view of reality is...
) - Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
- Cell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project sounds directly into the ears of their users.
- Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point, delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can hear. This was fictionalized in the films Minority ReportMinority Report (film)Minority Report is a 2002 American neo-noir science fiction film directed by Steven Spielberg and loosely based on the short story "The Minority Report" by Philip K. Dick. It is set primarily in Washington, D.C...
and Back to the Future Part IIBack to the Future Part IIBack to the Future Part II is a 1989 American science fiction comedy film and the second installment of the Back to the Future trilogy. It was directed by Robert Zemeckis, written by Zemeckis and Bob Gale, and starred Michael J. Fox, Christopher Lloyd, Thomas F. Wilson and Lea Thompson...
. See Sound from ultrasoundSound from ultrasoundSound from ultrasound is the name given here to situations when modulated ultrasound can make its carried signal audible without needing a receiver set...
.
2018
- 10 Terabits (1013 bits) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory (RAM) space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.
2020s
- Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
- As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines will be used for medical purposes.
- Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscansNeuroimagingNeuroimaging includes the use of various techniques to either directly or indirectly image the structure, function/pharmacology of the brain...
on live patients. - Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
- Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete. Thus, humans who have injected these nanobots into their bloodstream will evolve from having a normal human metabolismMetabolismMetabolism is the set of chemical reactions that happen in the cells of living organisms to sustain life. These processes allow organisms to grow and reproduce, maintain their structures, and respond to their environments. Metabolism is usually divided into two categories...
and become humanoid cyborgCyborgA cyborg is a being with both biological and artificial parts. The term was coined in 1960 when Manfred Clynes and Nathan S. Kline used it in an article about the advantages of self-regulating human-machine systems in outer space. D. S...
s. Eventually, according to Kurzweil, a large percentage of humans will evolve by this process into cyborgs. - By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount of time it takes to download the design schematics.
- Also by the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from reality.
- The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—far more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced.
- A computer will pass the Turing testTuring testThe Turing test is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour. In Turing's original illustrative example, a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with a human and a machine designed to generate performance indistinguishable from that of a human being. All...
by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AIStrong AIStrong AI is artificial intelligence that matches or exceeds human intelligence — the intelligence of a machine that can successfully perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It is a primary goal of artificial intelligence research and an important topic for science fiction writers and...
and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a kindergartner). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
2025
- The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
- Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
2030s
- Mind uploading becomes possible.
- Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual realityVirtual realityVirtual reality , also known as virtuality, is a term that applies to computer-simulated environments that can simulate physical presence in places in the real world, as well as in imaginary worlds...
could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerveAfferent nerveIn the nervous system, afferent neurons , carry nerve impulses from receptors or sense organs towards the central nervous system. This term can also be used to describe relative connections between structures. Afferent neurons communicate with specialized interneurons...
pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the real world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience. - Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
- Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John MalkovichBeing John MalkovichBeing John Malkovich is a 1999 American black comedy-fantasy film written by Charlie Kaufman and directed by Spike Jonze. It stars John Cusack, Cameron Diaz, Catherine Keener, and John Malkovich, who plays a fictional version of himself...
were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes. - Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in people's brainHuman brainThe human brain has the same general structure as the brains of other mammals, but is over three times larger than the brain of a typical mammal with an equivalent body size. Estimates for the number of neurons in the human brain range from 80 to 120 billion...
s will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to telepathically communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networkWireless networkWireless network refers to any type of computer network that is not connected by cables of any kind. It is a method by which homes, telecommunications networks and enterprise installations avoid the costly process of introducing cables into a building, or as a connection between various equipment...
s. - The economy transits in GDP percentage to more meta services such as reality fabrication, mind enhancement, mental software.
- The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connectionsNeural pathwayA neural pathway, neural tract, or neural face, connects one part of the nervous system with another and usually consists of bundles of elongated, myelin-insulated neurons, known collectively as white matter...
within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
2040s
- Human body 3.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) comes into existence. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Organs are also replaced by superior cybernetic implants.
- There will be social splitting into different levels of use of reality augmentation, from those who want to live in a life of imagined harems, or those who dedicate their thoughts to philosophical extension. Human society will drift apart in its focus, but with ever increasing capabilities to make imagined things occur.
- People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual realitySimulated realitySimulated reality is the proposition that reality could be simulated—perhaps by computer simulation—to a degree indistinguishable from "true" reality. It could contain conscious minds which may or may not be fully aware that they are living inside a simulation....
(Kurzweil has cited The MatrixThe MatrixThe Matrix is a 1999 science fiction-action film written and directed by Larry and Andy Wachowski, starring Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne, Carrie-Anne Moss, Joe Pantoliano, and Hugo Weaving...
as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist). - FogletUtility fogUtility fog is a hypothetical collection of tiny robots that can replicate a physical structure. As such, it is a form of self-reconfiguring modular robotics.-Conception:...
s are in use.
2045: The Singularity
- $1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than the human brain. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
- The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
- The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
- The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
- Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer (but some areas will remain set aside as nature preserves).
- At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any further is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting intelligence, or a form of synthetic life.
- Kurzweil predicts that machines will have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
- The process of "waking up" the universe will be complete as early as 2199.
- With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, A.I./human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this will open up all sorts of new possibilities, including manipulation of the physical constants, inter-dimensional travel, and controlling the fate of the universe.
Some indeterminate point within a few decades from now
- Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
- The antitechnology "Luddite"Neo-luddismNeo-Luddism is a personal world view opposing any modern technology. Its name is based on the historical legacy of the British Luddites which were active between 1811 and 1816...
movement will grow increasingly vocal and possibly resort to violence, possibly a new World WarHugo de GarisHugo de Garis is a researcher in the sub-field of artificial intelligence known as evolvable hardware. He became known in the 1990s for his research on the use of genetic algorithms to evolve neural networks using three dimensional cellular automata inside field programmable gate arrays...
, as these people become enraged over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind (artificial intelligence). Though the Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen at a fixed level of development. However, some nature preserves may be set aside for them to live in. - The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommutingTelecommutingTelecommuting or telework is a work arrangement in which employees enjoy flexibility in working location and hours. In other words, the daily commute to a central place of work is replaced by telecommunication links...
. This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will make societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.
Film adaptations
In 2006, Barry PtolemyBarry Ptolemy
Robert Barry Ptolemy is an American film director, producer and writer. Ptolemy directed Transcendent Man a documentary film about futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil.-Life:...
and his production company Ptolemaic Productions licensed the rights to The Singularity Is Near from Kurzweil. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy would direct and produce the film Transcendent Man, which would go on to critical and commercial success in 2011, bringing more attention to the book. Kurzweil considers Doug Wolen's coming documentary "The Singularity" to be closer to form to Kurzweil's own views
Translations
- Chinese translation: 奇点迫近[奇点临近]
- Italian translation: La singolarità è vicina
- Korean translation: 특이점이 온다
See also
- SingularitarianismSingularitarianismSingularitarianism is a technocentric ideology and social movement defined by the belief that a technological singularity—the creation of a superintelligence—will likely happen in the medium future, and that deliberate action ought to be taken to ensure that the Singularity benefits...
- TranshumanismTranshumanismTranshumanism, often abbreviated as H+ or h+, is an international intellectual and cultural movement that affirms the possibility and desirability of fundamentally transforming the human condition by developing and making widely available technologies to eliminate aging and to greatly enhance human...
- Limits to computationLimits to computationThere are several physical and practical limits to the amount of computation or data storage that can be performed with a given amount of mass, volume, or energy:...
- Paradigm shiftParadigm shiftA Paradigm shift is, according to Thomas Kuhn in his influential book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , a change in the basic assumptions, or paradigms, within the ruling theory of science...
- Simulated realitySimulated realitySimulated reality is the proposition that reality could be simulated—perhaps by computer simulation—to a degree indistinguishable from "true" reality. It could contain conscious minds which may or may not be fully aware that they are living inside a simulation....
- Technological singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
- Timeline of the future in forecastsTimeline of the future in forecastsThis timeline of the future in forecasts is a list of credible forecasts of near-future events and developments in all areas of science, technology, society and the environment....
- Transcendent Man
External links
- Singularity.com, including reviews of the book and articles about Kurzweil
- Vice Magazine interview with Ray Kurzweil
- Documentary- The Singularity of Ray Kurzweil on YouTube
- Hameroff at KurzweilAI.net (links to essays related to Singularity)
- Wall Street Journal review by Glenn Harlan Reynolds
- Brain Chips and Other Dreams of the Cyber-Evangelists by John Horgan
- IEEE Spectrum details the topic (6/2008) includes his keynote
- Aubrey de Gray, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging.