As Maine goes, so goes the nation
Encyclopedia
"As Maine goes, so goes the nation" is a phrase that at one time was in wide currency in United States politics
. The phrase described Maine
's reputation as a bellwether
state for presidential elections. Specifically, Maine's September election
of a governor
predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in presidential election years from 1832 (if not earlier) through 1844, in 1852, from 1860 through 1876, in 1888, from 1896 through 1908 and from 1920 through 1932.
Beginning with its creation as a state in 1820 when it split off from Massachusetts
, Maine held its elections for statewide and congressional offices in September, not November as did most other states, due to warmer September weather and Maine's early harvest. (Maine did hold its presidential elections in November.)
Maine's reputation as a bellwether began in 1840, when it voted in Edward Kent
, the Whig Party
candidate, as Governor of Maine
. Two months later, the Whig party Presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison
, won the 1840 presidential election
. Again in 1888
Maine voted solidly for Republican Party
candidates, and Republican Benjamin Harrison
won the Presidential election despite losing the overall popular vote nationwide. The saying originated following this election, though it is unknown by whom. In subsequent election cycles, national political parties
often went to considerable lengths to win Maine's early Congressional and statewide elections, despite the state's relatively small population (and hence few seats in the House of Representatives
, and few electoral votes in the November presidential elections) and somewhat remote location.
Governor, Lewis O. Barrows
, an overwhelmingly Republican state legislature
, and an all-Republican congressional delegation
in its early balloting, and Republicans trumpeted the phrase. Maine had elected a Democratic
Governor and two Democratic congressmen in both 1932 (although the state had still been carried by Republican President Herbert Hoover
that November) and 1934, and the Democrats had been making gains in the Maine Legislature, so the Republican victories in Maine in September 1936 may have seemed indicative of a national Republican trend. That November, however, only Maine and Vermont
were carried by for Republican
nominee Alf Landon
over President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1936 Presidential election
, giving Landon only eight electoral votes (the three from Vermont and the five from Maine), equalling the smallest total ever won by a major-party nominee since the beginning of the current U.S. two-party system
in the 1850s, and destroying the credibility of the phrase permanently. (Landon had such a bad election that he did not even win his home state, Kansas
.) Democratic strategist and F.D.R. campaign manager James Farley
quipped "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont." From then on, the party whose nominee won Maine's September gubernatorial election in presidential election years went on to win the November Presidential election only once—in 1952, when Republican
Burton M. Cross
was elected Governor and Dwight D. Eisenhower
was elected to his first term as President
.
In 1957, Maine changed its election law to hold all general election
s in November. Beginning in 1960 it held elections at the same time as the rest of the United States, ending the tradition of early voting.
Since Maine relinquished its status as presidential bellwether, Delaware
, Missouri
, Kentucky
, Nevada
, Wisconsin
, and Ohio
have held the title over various spans of time.
Politics of the United States
The United States is a federal constitutional republic, in which the President of the United States , Congress, and judiciary share powers reserved to the national government, and the federal government shares sovereignty with the state governments.The executive branch is headed by the President...
. The phrase described Maine
Maine
Maine is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States, bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and south, New Hampshire to the west, and the Canadian provinces of Quebec to the northwest and New Brunswick to the northeast. Maine is both the northernmost and easternmost...
's reputation as a bellwether
Bellwether
A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram leading his flock of sheep.The movements of...
state for presidential elections. Specifically, Maine's September election
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
of a governor
Governor
A governor is a governing official, usually the executive of a non-sovereign level of government, ranking under the head of state...
predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in presidential election years from 1832 (if not earlier) through 1844, in 1852, from 1860 through 1876, in 1888, from 1896 through 1908 and from 1920 through 1932.
Beginning with its creation as a state in 1820 when it split off from Massachusetts
Massachusetts
The Commonwealth of Massachusetts is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. It is bordered by Rhode Island and Connecticut to the south, New York to the west, and Vermont and New Hampshire to the north; at its east lies the Atlantic Ocean. As of the 2010...
, Maine held its elections for statewide and congressional offices in September, not November as did most other states, due to warmer September weather and Maine's early harvest. (Maine did hold its presidential elections in November.)
Maine's reputation as a bellwether began in 1840, when it voted in Edward Kent
Edward Kent
Edward Kent was the 12th and 15th Governor of the U.S. state of Maine during the Aroostook War. Born in 1802 in Concord, New Hampshire, he later moved to Bangor, Maine and spent the rest of his life there. He was among the last prominent members of the Whig Party in Maine before it collapsed in...
, the Whig Party
Whig Party (United States)
The Whig Party was a political party of the United States during the era of Jacksonian democracy. Considered integral to the Second Party System and operating from the early 1830s to the mid-1850s, the party was formed in opposition to the policies of President Andrew Jackson and his Democratic...
candidate, as Governor of Maine
Governor of Maine
The governor of Maine is the chief executive of the State of Maine. Before Maine was admitted to the Union in 1820, Maine was part of Massachusetts and the governor of Massachusetts was chief executive....
. Two months later, the Whig party Presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison
William Henry Harrison
William Henry Harrison was the ninth President of the United States , an American military officer and politician, and the first president to die in office. He was 68 years, 23 days old when elected, the oldest president elected until Ronald Reagan in 1980, and last President to be born before the...
, won the 1840 presidential election
United States presidential election, 1840
The United States presidential election of 1840 saw President Martin Van Buren fight for re-election against an economic depression and a Whig Party unified for the first time behind war hero William Henry Harrison and his "log cabin campaign"...
. Again in 1888
United States presidential election, 1888
The 1888 election for President of the United States saw Grover Cleveland of New York, the incumbent president and a Democrat, try to secure a second term against the Republican nominee Benjamin Harrison, a former U.S. Senator from Indiana...
Maine voted solidly for Republican Party
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
candidates, and Republican Benjamin Harrison
Benjamin Harrison
Benjamin Harrison was the 23rd President of the United States . Harrison, a grandson of President William Henry Harrison, was born in North Bend, Ohio, and moved to Indianapolis, Indiana at age 21, eventually becoming a prominent politician there...
won the Presidential election despite losing the overall popular vote nationwide. The saying originated following this election, though it is unknown by whom. In subsequent election cycles, national political parties
Political Parties
Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of Modern Democracy is a book by sociologist Robert Michels, published in 1911 , and first introducing the concept of iron law of oligarchy...
often went to considerable lengths to win Maine's early Congressional and statewide elections, despite the state's relatively small population (and hence few seats in the House of Representatives
United States House of Representatives
The United States House of Representatives is one of the two Houses of the United States Congress, the bicameral legislature which also includes the Senate.The composition and powers of the House are established in Article One of the Constitution...
, and few electoral votes in the November presidential elections) and somewhat remote location.
As Maine goes, so goes Vermont
In 1936, Maine elected a RepublicanRepublican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
Governor, Lewis O. Barrows
Lewis O. Barrows
Lewis O. Barrows was an American politician and the 57th Governor of Maine.- Early life :Barrows was born in Newport, Maine on June 7, 1893. He studied in the local school of Maine. He later studied at the University of Maine.- Politics :Barrow became the treasurer of Newport and held that...
, an overwhelmingly Republican state legislature
Maine Legislature
The Maine Legislature is the state legislature of the U.S. state of Maine. It is a bicameral body composed of the lower house Maine House of Representatives and the upper house Maine Senate...
, and an all-Republican congressional delegation
United States Congressional Delegations from Maine
These are tables of congressional delegations from Maine to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives. Maine became a state on March 15, 1820.-United States Senate:-House of Representatives:-List of representatives:...
in its early balloting, and Republicans trumpeted the phrase. Maine had elected a Democratic
Democratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
Governor and two Democratic congressmen in both 1932 (although the state had still been carried by Republican President Herbert Hoover
Herbert Hoover
Herbert Clark Hoover was the 31st President of the United States . Hoover was originally a professional mining engineer and author. As the United States Secretary of Commerce in the 1920s under Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he promoted partnerships between government and business...
that November) and 1934, and the Democrats had been making gains in the Maine Legislature, so the Republican victories in Maine in September 1936 may have seemed indicative of a national Republican trend. That November, however, only Maine and Vermont
Vermont
Vermont is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The state ranks 43rd in land area, , and 45th in total area. Its population according to the 2010 census, 630,337, is the second smallest in the country, larger only than Wyoming. It is the only New England...
were carried by for Republican
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
nominee Alf Landon
Alf Landon
Alfred Mossman "Alf" Landon was an American Republican politician, who served as the 26th Governor of Kansas from 1933–1937. He was best known for being the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States, defeated in a landslide by Franklin D...
over President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1936 Presidential election
United States presidential election, 1936
The United States presidential election of 1936 was the most lopsided presidential election in the history of the United States in terms of electoral votes. In terms of the popular vote, it was the third biggest victory since the election of 1820, which was not seriously contested.The election took...
, giving Landon only eight electoral votes (the three from Vermont and the five from Maine), equalling the smallest total ever won by a major-party nominee since the beginning of the current U.S. two-party system
Two-party system
A two-party system is a system where two major political parties dominate voting in nearly all elections at every level of government and, as a result, all or nearly all elected offices are members of one of the two major parties...
in the 1850s, and destroying the credibility of the phrase permanently. (Landon had such a bad election that he did not even win his home state, Kansas
Kansas
Kansas is a US state located in the Midwestern United States. It is named after the Kansas River which flows through it, which in turn was named after the Kansa Native American tribe, which inhabited the area. The tribe's name is often said to mean "people of the wind" or "people of the south...
.) Democratic strategist and F.D.R. campaign manager James Farley
James Farley
James Aloysius Farley was the first Irish Catholic politician in American history to achieve success on a national level, serving as Chairman of the New York State Democratic Committee, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and as Postmaster General simultaneously under the first two...
quipped "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont." From then on, the party whose nominee won Maine's September gubernatorial election in presidential election years went on to win the November Presidential election only once—in 1952, when Republican
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
Burton M. Cross
Burton M. Cross
Burton Melvin Cross was a Maine Republican politician. Cross was Maine's 61st and 63rd Governor....
was elected Governor and Dwight D. Eisenhower
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower was the 34th President of the United States, from 1953 until 1961. He was a five-star general in the United States Army...
was elected to his first term as President
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
.
In 1957, Maine changed its election law to hold all general election
General election
In a parliamentary political system, a general election is an election in which all or most members of a given political body are chosen. The term is usually used to refer to elections held for a nation's primary legislative body, as distinguished from by-elections and local elections.The term...
s in November. Beginning in 1960 it held elections at the same time as the rest of the United States, ending the tradition of early voting.
Since Maine relinquished its status as presidential bellwether, Delaware
Delaware
Delaware is a U.S. state located on the Atlantic Coast in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. It is bordered to the south and west by Maryland, and to the north by Pennsylvania...
, Missouri
Missouri
Missouri is a US state located in the Midwestern United States, bordered by Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. With a 2010 population of 5,988,927, Missouri is the 18th most populous state in the nation and the fifth most populous in the Midwest. It...
, Kentucky
Kentucky
The Commonwealth of Kentucky is a state located in the East Central United States of America. As classified by the United States Census Bureau, Kentucky is a Southern state, more specifically in the East South Central region. Kentucky is one of four U.S. states constituted as a commonwealth...
, Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is a state in the western, mountain west, and southwestern regions of the United States. With an area of and a population of about 2.7 million, it is the 7th-largest and 35th-most populous state. Over two-thirds of Nevada's people live in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which contains its...
, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a U.S. state located in the north-central United States and is part of the Midwest. It is bordered by Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, Michigan to the northeast, and Lake Superior to the north. Wisconsin's capital is...
, and Ohio
Ohio
Ohio is a Midwestern state in the United States. The 34th largest state by area in the U.S.,it is the 7th‑most populous with over 11.5 million residents, containing several major American cities and seven metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more.The state's capital is Columbus...
have held the title over various spans of time.