Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?"Forecasting

Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...

 is the process of predicting the future based on current trend analysis. Backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction.
Backcasting is a key component of the soft energy path

Soft energy path

In 1976 energy policy analyst Amory Lovins coined the term soft energy path to describe an alternative future where energy efficiency and appropriate renewable energy sources steadily replace a centralized energy system based on fossil and nuclear fuels....

, a concept developed by Amory Lovins

Amory Lovins

Amory Bloch Lovins is an American environmental scientist and writer, Chairman and Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute. He has worked in the field of energy policy and related areas for four decades...

 after the shock of the 1973 energy crisis in the United States.

Backcasting from Sustainability Principles, or System conditions of sustainability is a key concept of the 'Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development' pioneered by Karl-Henrik Robèrt

Karl-Henrik Robèrt

Karl-Henrik Robèrt, M.D., Ph.D. , is a Swedish cancer scientist and an important figure in the worldwide sustainability movement. He is known for The Natural Step, a framework that lays out the system conditions for sustainability, that arose from his consultations with municipalities, businesses,...

, founder of The Natural Step

The Natural Step

The Natural Step is a non-profit organization founded in Sweden in 1989 by scientist Karl-Henrik Robèrt. Following publication of the Brundtland Report in 1987, Robèrt developed The Natural Step framework, setting out the system conditions for the sustainability of human activities on Earth;...

, an international nonprofit dedicated to applied research for sustainability, in cooperation with a global alliance of universities, businesses, and other NGOs.

Practical applications

Backcasting is increasingly used in urban planning and resource management of water and energy. In 2006, the Capital Regional District Water Services, which services the greater Victoria

Victoria, British Columbia

Victoria is the capital city of British Columbia, Canada and is located on the southern tip of Vancouver Island off Canada's Pacific coast. The city has a population of about 78,000 within the metropolitan area of Greater Victoria, which has a population of 360,063, the 15th most populous Canadian...

 area in British Columbia

British Columbia

British Columbia is the westernmost of Canada's provinces and is known for its natural beauty, as reflected in its Latin motto, Splendor sine occasu . Its name was chosen by Queen Victoria in 1858...

, Canada

Canada

Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...

, committed to backcasting to the year 2050 as a formal element of all future strategic water planning initiatives.

Research groups that use backcasting

• Pacific Institute
  Pacific Institute
  The Pacific Institute is a non-profit research institute created in 1987 to provide independent research and policy analysis on issues at the intersection of development, environment, and security, with a particular focus on global and regional freshwater issues...
  
  
• POLIS Project on Ecological Governance
  POLIS Project on Ecological Governance
  The POLIS Project on Ecological Governance is a centre for trans-disciplinary research that investigates and promotes sustainability. POLIS was established in 2000 by the Eco-Research Chair of Environmental Law and Policy at the University of Victoria in Canada and fills a unique niche on campus as...
  
  
• The Natural Step
  The Natural Step
  The Natural Step is a non-profit organization founded in Sweden in 1989 by scientist Karl-Henrik Robèrt. Following publication of the Brundtland Report in 1987, Robèrt developed The Natural Step framework, setting out the system conditions for the sustainability of human activities on Earth;...
  
  
• POLIS Water Sustainability Project
• Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford, UK
• Institute for Sustainable Futures
• Global Scenario Group
  Global scenario group
  The Global Scenario Group was a team of environmental scholars, headed by Paul Raskin, who used scenario analysis to analyze future paths for world development in the face of environmental pressures and crises...
  
  
• Tellus Institute
  Tellus Institute
  The Tellus Institute is a non-profit research and policy organization based in Boston, Massachusetts, in the United States. Its mission is to advance the transition to a sustainable, equitable, and humane global civilization. The Tellus Institute was founded in 1976 by Paul Raskin, Richard Rosen,...
  
   - environmental research group that uses backcasting to develop strategies for sustainability

Other resources

• The Soft Path for Water in a Nutshell (2005). Oliver M Brandes and David B. Brooks. A joint publication of Friends of the Earth Canada and the POLIS Project on Ecological Governance
  POLIS Project on Ecological Governance
  The POLIS Project on Ecological Governance is a centre for trans-disciplinary research that investigates and promotes sustainability. POLIS was established in 2000 by the Eco-Research Chair of Environmental Law and Policy at the University of Victoria in Canada and fills a unique niche on campus as...
  
  . University of Victoria
  University of Victoria
  The University of Victoria, often referred to as UVic, is the second oldest public research university in British Columbia, Canada. It is a research intensive university located in Saanich and Oak Bay, about northeast of downtown Victoria. The University's annual enrollment is about 20,000 students...
  
  , Victoria BC.
• Backcasting Presentation from IA Summit 2007 - backcasting as a technique in Information Architecture
  Information Architecture
  Information architecture is the art of expressing a model or concept of information used in activities that require explicit details of complex systems. Among these activities are library systems, Content Management Systems, web development, user interactions, database development, programming,...
  
  
• Slides for backcasting workshop - IA Summit 2008