Casualty estimation
Encyclopedia
Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred. On the other, casualty prediction
is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths that might occur in a planned or potential battle or natural disaster.
Measures used to imply casualties include:
can help localize metal and possibly bodies at that site. TECHINT
is needed if there are weapons or artifacts to analyze. IMINT has a role to play in tracking movements. These all have to combine with all-source analysis. Perhaps the losses of tanks and aircraft, if available, might better predict what actually happened in a battle. MASINT's mass graves capability is a means that has been used for remote sensing of clandestine mass graves.
Author Sam Adams' book, War of Numbers discusses, in great detail, a process of casualty estimation. Adams was a CIA analyst who eventually resigned over what he felt was political manipulation of casualty figures in the Vietnam War
. He explains how he came up with casualty figures for the NLF and PAVN. Adams, and other U.S. analysts dealing with a guerilla war in jungle, found there were better metrics than "body count". David Hackworth, for example, used number of enemy weapons captured after an engagement, and that turned out to be a good predictor of casualties, with certain limits.
Casualty prediction
Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an epidemic, natural disaster or act of war such as the explosion of a nuclear weapon, chemical weapon or biological weapon...
is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths that might occur in a planned or potential battle or natural disaster.
Measures used to imply casualties include:
- Reported number of kills
- Number of enemy individual weapons captured after engagement
- Number of tanks and aircraft lost
- Remote sensing of mass graves
Methods
Measures and Signals Intelligence alone cannot give a reasonable estimate of casualties. What Spectroscopic MASINT can do is help find mass graves. Geophysical MASINTGeophysical MASINT
Geophysical MASINT is a branch of Measurement and Signature Intelligence that involves phenomena transmitted through the earth and manmade structures including emitted or reflected sounds, pressure waves, vibrations, and magnetic field or ionosphere disturbances.According to the United States...
can help localize metal and possibly bodies at that site. TECHINT
Techint
Techint is a conglomerate multinational company founded in Milan in September 1945 by Italian industrialist Agostino Rocca and headquartered in Milan and Buenos Aires . Techint comprises more than 100 companies operating worldwide in the following areas of business: Engineering & Construction,...
is needed if there are weapons or artifacts to analyze. IMINT has a role to play in tracking movements. These all have to combine with all-source analysis. Perhaps the losses of tanks and aircraft, if available, might better predict what actually happened in a battle. MASINT's mass graves capability is a means that has been used for remote sensing of clandestine mass graves.
Author Sam Adams' book, War of Numbers discusses, in great detail, a process of casualty estimation. Adams was a CIA analyst who eventually resigned over what he felt was political manipulation of casualty figures in the Vietnam War
Vietnam War
The Vietnam War was a Cold War-era military conflict that occurred in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975. This war followed the First Indochina War and was fought between North Vietnam, supported by its communist allies, and the government of...
. He explains how he came up with casualty figures for the NLF and PAVN. Adams, and other U.S. analysts dealing with a guerilla war in jungle, found there were better metrics than "body count". David Hackworth, for example, used number of enemy weapons captured after an engagement, and that turned out to be a good predictor of casualties, with certain limits.