Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an epidemic

Epidemic

In epidemiology, an epidemic , occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience...

, natural disaster

Natural disaster

A natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard . It leads to financial, environmental or human losses...

 or act of war such as the explosion of a nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapon

A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission or a combination of fission and fusion. Both reactions release vast quantities of energy from relatively small amounts of matter. The first fission bomb test released the same amount...

, chemical weapon or biological weapon. (Casualty estimation

Casualty estimation

Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred. On the other, casualty prediction is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths that might occur in a planned or potential battle or natural...

 is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.)

The New York University

New York University

New York University is a private, nonsectarian research university based in New York City. NYU's main campus is situated in the Greenwich Village section of Manhattan...

 Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project applies agent-based modelling to simulate the effects of a large-scale disaster. Their initial project focused on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths.

Blast casualty prediction is routinely performed in the planning of military operations. For example, a cruise missile

Cruise missile

A cruise missile is a guided missile that carries an explosive payload and is propelled, usually by a jet engine, towards a land-based or sea-based target. Cruise missiles are designed to deliver a large warhead over long distances with high accuracy...

 attack was considered by the United States in 1998 for Tarnak Farms

Tarnak Farms

Tarnak Farms refers to a former Afghan training camp near Kandahar.The camp is very near the Kandahar airport.The Al-Qaeda camp is alleged to have offered training constructing bombs, using poisons, urban warfare, and assassination...

 in order to kill Osama bin Laden

Osama bin Laden

Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden was the founder of the militant Islamist organization Al-Qaeda, the jihadist organization responsible for the September 11 attacks on the United States and numerous other mass-casualty attacks against civilian and military targets...

. However, not enough was known about the collateral damage

Collateral damage

Collateral damage is damage to people or property that is unintended or incidental to the intended outcome. The phrase is prevalently used as an euphemism for civilian casualties of a military action.-Etymology:...

 effects of cruise missiles on mud huts

Hut (dwelling)

A hut is a small and crude shelter, usually used for dwelling. Its design favors local techniques and materials to allow for swift and inexpensive construction.-Modern use:...

. At the time there were estimated to be 100 women and children in the area, and in order to spare these civilians, the attack was not approved.