Climate change, industry and society
Encyclopedia
This article is about climate change
, industry and society.
Vulnerabilities in developed areas are often focused on physical assets and infrastructures, with their associated economic value and replacement costs, and their linkages to global markets. In less developed areas, vulnerabilities are often focused on human populations and institutions. Compared with developed countries, the economic costs associated with vulnerabilities in developing countries might be larger as a proportion of the total economy. This is because the economies in developing countries tend to be based more heavily on climate-sensitive activities, like agriculture, than the economies of developed countries (Smith et al., 2001:938-941).
Not all implications of possible climate change are negative. For instance, many mid- and upper-latitude areas might see quality-of-life benefits from winter warming. Economic sectors, settlements and social groups can be affected by climate change response policies. For instance, efforts to reduce GHG emissions can affect economies whose development paths are dependent on abundant local fossil-fuel resources.
, many of the world's largest and most prosperous cities are on the coast
. In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplain
s, because it is the only available space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dyke
s and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit needed to recover from disasters.
In a journal paper, Nicholls and Tol
(2006) considered the effects of sea level rise:
Nicholls et al. (2007:338-339) assessed the literature on climate change impacts in coastal and low-lying areas. They concluded that the socioeconomic impacts of climate change would be overwhelmingly adverse. With very high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:
A study in the April 2007 issue of Environment and Urbanization reports that 634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9.1 m) of sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007, p. 24). The study also reported that about two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.
Melting Arctic
ice may open the Northwest Passage
in summer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia. This would be of particular benefit for supertankers which are too big to fit through the Panama Canal
and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's eastern Arctic Archipelago
decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.
In September 2007, the Arctic Ice Cap retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history.
In August, 2008, melting sea ice
simultaneously opened up the Northwest Passage
and the Northern Sea Route
, making it possible to sail around the Arctic ice cap. The Northwest Passage opened August 25, 2008, and the remaining tongue of ice blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Because of Arctic shrinkage
, the Beluga Shipping
group of Bremen
, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route
in 2009.
and fresh water shortages. Thirdly, another impact for thermal power plants is that increasing the temperatures in which they operate reduces their efficiency and hence their output. Fourthly, the source of oil often comes from areas prone to high natural disaster risks, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, cyclones and floods. An example is that of Hurricane Katrina
's impact on oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico
, as it destroyed 126 oil and gas platforms and damaged 183 more.
. However, the impact of water shortages on nuclear power plants is perhaps more visible than on other thermal power plants. Seawater is corrosive and so nuclear energy supply is likely to be negatively affected by the fresh water shortage. This generic problem may become increasingly significant over time. This can force nuclear reactors to be shut down, as happened in France during the 2003 and 2006 heat waves. Nuclear power supply was severely diminished by low river flow rates and droughts, which meant rivers had reached the maximum temperatures for cooling reactors. During the heat waves, 17 reactors had to limit output or shut down. 77% of French electricity is produced by nuclear power and in 2009 a similar situation created a 8GW shortage and forced the French government to import electricity. Other cases have been reported from Germany, where extreme temperatures have reduced nuclear power production 9 times due to high temperatures between 1979 and 2007. In particular:
Similar events have happened elsewhere in Europe during those same hot summers. If global warming
continues, this disruption is likely to increase.
. Studies from the Colorado River
in the United States suggest that modest climate changes, such as an increase in temperature in 2 degree Celsius resulting in a 10% decline in precipitation, might reduce river run-off by up to 40%. Brazil
in particular is vulnerable due to its heaving reliance on hydroelectricity, as increasing temperatures, lower water flow and alterations in the rainfall regime, could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century.
industry. According to a 2005 report from the Association of British Insurers, limiting carbon emissions could avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. A June 2004 report by the Association of British Insurers declared "Climate change is not a remote issue for future generations to deal with. It is, in various forms, here already, impacting on insurers' businesses now." It noted that weather risks for households and property were already increasing by 2–4 % per year due to changing weather, and that claims for storm and flood damages in the UK had doubled to over £6 billion over the period 1998–2003, compared to the previous five years. The results are rising insurance premiums, and the risk that in some areas flood insurance
will become unaffordable for some.
Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re
and Swiss Re
, warned in a 2002 study that "the increasing frequency of severe climatic events, coupled with social trends" could cost almost US$
150 billion each year in the next decade. These costs would, through increased costs related to insurance and disaster relief, burden customers, taxpayers, and industry alike.
In the United States, insurance losses have also greatly increased. According to Choi and Fisher (2003) each 1% increase in annual precipitation could enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. Gross increases are mostly attributed to increased population and property values in vulnerable coastal areas, though there was also an increase in frequency of weather-related events like heavy rainfalls since the 1950s.
s, water mains etc.) may require increased maintenance and renewal as they become subject to greater temperature variation. Regions already adversely affected include areas of permafrost
, which are subject to high levels of subsidence
, resulting in buckling roads, sunken foundations, and severely cracked runways.
in some regions, affecting drinking water and agriculture in coastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weather means more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of a replenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water supply.
The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different effects. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate
crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt. Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower.
Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.
In the Sahel
, there has been an unusually wet period from 1950 until 1970, followed by extremely dry years
from 1970 to 1990. From 1990 until 2004 rainfall returned to levels slightly below the 1898–1993 average, but year-to-year variability was high.
With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had:
With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education, health care, and public-health infrastructure.
According to a 2009 journal paper by UCL
academics, climate change and global warming
pose the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century.
s, doctors warn. Higher air temperature also increase the concentration of ozone at ground level. In the lower atmosphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant. It damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases.
Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality
: higher temperatures in winter reduce deaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths. The net local impact of these two direct effects depends on the current climate in a particular area. Palutikof et al. (1996) calculate that in England and Wales for a 1 °C temperature rise the reduced deaths from cold outweigh the increased deaths from heat, resulting in a reduction in annual average mortality of 7000, while Keatinge et al. (2000) “suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities.” Cold-related deaths are far more numerous than heat-related deaths in the United States, Europe, and almost all countries outside the tropics. During 1979–1999, a total of 3,829 deaths in the United States were associated with excessive heat due to weather conditions, while in that same period a total of 13,970 deaths were attributed to hypothermia
. In Europe, mean annual heat related mortalities are 304 in North Finland, 445 in Athens, and 40 in London, while cold related mortalities are 2457, 2533, and 3129 respectively. According to Keatinge et al. (2000), “populations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5°C to 24.1°C, and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality.”
A government report shows decreased mortality due to recent warming and predicts increased mortality due to future warming in the United Kingdom. The 2003 European heat wave
killed 22,000–35,000 people, based on normal mortality rates. Peter A. Stott from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
estimated with 90% confidence that past human influence on climate was responsible for at least half the risk of the 2003 European summer heat-wave.
such as dengue fever
, West Nile virus
, and malaria
. In poorer countries, this may simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. In richer countries, where such diseases have been eliminated or kept in check by vaccination
, draining swamps and using pesticides, the consequences may be felt more in economic than health terms. The World Health Organization
(WHO) says global warming could lead to a major increase in insect-borne diseases in Britain and Europe, as northern Europe becomes warmer, ticks—which carry encephalitis
and lyme disease
—and sandflies—which carry visceral leishmaniasis
—are likely to move in. However, malaria has always been a common threat in European past, with the last epidemic occurring in the Netherlands during the 1950s. In the United States, Malaria has been endemic in as much as 36 states (including Washington, North Dakota, Michigan and New York) until the 1940s. By 1949, the country was declared free of malaria as a significant public health problem, after more than 4,650,000 house DDT
spray applications had been made.
The World Health Organisation estimates 150,000 deaths annually "as a result of climate change", of which half are in the Asia-Pacific region. In April 2008, it reported that, as a result of increased temperatures, the number of malaria
infections is expected to increase in the highland
areas of Papua New Guinea
.
issued the policy statement Global Climate Change and Children's Health:
On 2008-04-29, a UNICEF UK
Report found that global warming is already reducing the quality of the world's most vulnerable children's lives and making it more difficult to meet the UN Millennium Development Goals
. Global warming will reduce access to clean water and food supplies
, particularly in Africa and Asia. Disasters, violence and disease are expected to be more frequent and intense, making the future of the world's poorest children more bleak.
limit of human survivability with global warming of about 6.7 °C (12 °F) while a warming of 11.7 °C (21 °F) would put half of the world's population in an uninhabitable environment. In practice the survivable limit of global warming in these areas is probably lower and in practice some areas may experience lethal wet bulb tempatures even earlier, because this study conservatively projected the survival limit for persons who are out of the sun, in gale-force winds, doused with water, wearing no clothing, and not working.
those effects. This may slow economic development
and poverty reduction
, and make it harder to achieve the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs).
In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environment NGO
s, issued a report
Up in Smoke on the effects of climate change on development. This report, and the July 2005 report Africa - Up in Smoke? predicted increased hunger and disease due to decreased rainfall and severe weather events, particularly in Africa. These are likely to have severe impacts on development for those affected.
In a literature assessment, Yohe et al. (2007:813) concluded that climate change would very likely make it more difficult for nations to achieve the MDGs for the middle of the century. In the short-term, it was judged very likely that climate change (as attributed with high confidence to human activities) would not be a significant extra impediment to nations reaching their 2015 Millennium Development Targets.
, Kiribati
, and the Maldives
, are concerned about the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become economically unviable for them, creating climate refugee
s. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation.
In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees
at around 25 million. (Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugee
s, which only includes migrants
fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the world’s governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050’s predicted 10 billion world population
).
Schneider et al. (2007:787) assessed the literature on key vulnerabilities to climate change. With high confidence, they predicted that stresses such as increased drought, water shortages, and riverine and coastal flooding would affect many local and regional populations. With medium confidence, it was predicted that these stresses would lead, in some cases, to relocation within or between countries. This might have the effect of exacerbating conflicts, and possibly impose migration pressures.
The Military Advisory Board
, a panel of retired U.S. generals and admirals released a report entitled "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change." The report predicts that global warming will have security implications, in particular serving as a "threat multiplier" in already volatile regions. Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett
argues that “An unstable climate will exacerbate some of the core drivers of conflict, such as migratory pressures and competition for resources.” And several weeks earlier, U.S. Senators Chuck Hagel
(R-NB) and Richard Durbin (D-IL) introduced a bill in the U.S. Congress that would require federal intelligence agencies to collaborate on a National Intelligence Estimate
to evaluate the security challenges presented by climate change.
In November 2007, two Washington think tanks, the established Center for Strategic and International Studies
and the newer Center for a New American Security
, published a report analysing the worldwide security implications of three different global warming scenarios. The report considers three different scenarios, two over a roughly 30 year perspective and one covering the time up to 2100. Its general results conclude that flooding "...has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities. Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely..." and that "Perhaps the most worrisome problems associated with rising temperatures and sea levels are from large-scale migrations of people — both inside nations and across existing national borders."
A 2009 study questions the assumption that rising temperatures and violence are linked. Richard Tol and Sebastian Wagner collected data on climate and conflict in Europe between the years 1000 and 2000. They concluded that until the mid-18th century, there was a significant negative correlation between the number of conflicts and average temperature, but after that no statistically meaningful relationship can be observed. Tol and Wagner argue that the relationship between warfare and colder weather disappears around the time of the industrial revolution, when agriculture and transport improve dramatically. The Economist
suggests that the lesson of their research is that climate-induced conflict can be minimised by continuing the process of crop improvement.
A study by Zhang et al. (2009) used paleoclimate data (paleoclimate is the study of past climate) to examine large scale effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. According to the study, long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes have followed cycles of temperature change.
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
, industry and society.
Vulnerability
The ability to predict how climate change may affect industry, settlement and society is limited by uncertainites about climate change and future developments in social and economic systems (Wilbanks et al., 2007:364). Research therefore often focuses on vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change, rather than predicting the actual impacts themselves. IPCC (2007d) defined vulnerability (to climate change) as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes" (p. 89).Vulnerabilities in developed areas are often focused on physical assets and infrastructures, with their associated economic value and replacement costs, and their linkages to global markets. In less developed areas, vulnerabilities are often focused on human populations and institutions. Compared with developed countries, the economic costs associated with vulnerabilities in developing countries might be larger as a proportion of the total economy. This is because the economies in developing countries tend to be based more heavily on climate-sensitive activities, like agriculture, than the economies of developed countries (Smith et al., 2001:938-941).
General effects
Gradual climate change, e.g., increased mean temperature, can be associated with thresholds at which the resilience of human systems switches from adequate to inadequate, such as water-supply infrastructures faced with shrinking water availability (Wilbanks et al., 2007:364). Climate change can also be associated with changes in extreme events, e.g., changes in the magnitude, frequency and/or intensity of storms. With very high confidence, Wilbanks et al. (2007:359) concluded that most of the vulnerabilities to climate change of industry, settlements and society were related to changes in extreme events, rather than to gradual climate change.Not all implications of possible climate change are negative. For instance, many mid- and upper-latitude areas might see quality-of-life benefits from winter warming. Economic sectors, settlements and social groups can be affected by climate change response policies. For instance, efforts to reduce GHG emissions can affect economies whose development paths are dependent on abundant local fossil-fuel resources.
Human settlement
A number of case studies indicate that climate change will likely increase heat stress in summers while reducing cold-weather stresses in winter (Wilbanks et al., 2007:371-373). Other likely changes include:- changes in precipitation patterns and water availability
- rising sea levels in coastal locations
- increased risk of extreme weather events, such as severe storms and flooding. Some kinds of extreme events could decrease, such as blizzards and ice storms.
Social issues
There are several serious issues for climate change impacts and response, including (Wilbanks et al., 2007:373-374):- The poor, who make up half of the world's population, cannot afford adaptation mechanisms to climate change, such as air conditioning or climate-risk insurance.
- Impacts in developing countries, where more than 90% of the deaths related to natural disasters occur, and 43% of the urban slums are located.
- Impacts of climate change are likely to be felt most acutely not only by the poor, but by certain segments of the population, such as the elderly, the very young, indigenous people, and recent immigrants. Impacts will also differ according to gender, particularly in developing countries.
Key vulnerabilities
Most of the key vulnerabilities to climate change are related to (a) climate phenomena that exceed thresholds for adaptation, i.e., extreme weather events and/or abrupt climate change, and (b) limited access to resources (financial, technical, human, institutional) to cope (Wilbanks et al., 2007:374-376). In a literature assessment, Wilbanks et al. (2007:374-376) described key vulnerabilities of industry, settlements and society to climate change. Based on their expert judgement, the authors of the assessment gave each key vulnerability a confidence level. These confidence levels reflect the degree of belief that the authors had in their conclusions being correct:- Very high confidence: Interactions between climate change and urbanization: this is most notable in developing countries, where urbanization is often focused in vulnerable areas, e.g., coastal areas.
- High confidence:
- Interactions between climate change and global economic growth: stresses due to climate change are not only linked to the impacts of climate change, but also to the impacts of climate change policies. For example, these policies might affect development paths by requiring high cost fuel choices.
- Fixed physical infrastructures that are important in meeting human needs: These include infrastructures that are susceptible to damage from extreme weather events or sea-level rise, and/or infrastructures that are already close to being inadequate.
- Medium confidence: Interactions with governmental and social/cultural structures that are already stressed in some places by other kinds of pressures, e.g., limited economic resources.
Coasts and low-lying areas
For historical reasons to do with tradeTrade
Trade is the transfer of ownership of goods and services from one person or entity to another. Trade is sometimes loosely called commerce or financial transaction or barter. A network that allows trade is called a market. The original form of trade was barter, the direct exchange of goods and...
, many of the world's largest and most prosperous cities are on the coast
Coast
A coastline or seashore is the area where land meets the sea or ocean. A precise line that can be called a coastline cannot be determined due to the dynamic nature of tides. The term "coastal zone" can be used instead, which is a spatial zone where interaction of the sea and land processes occurs...
. In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplain
Floodplain
A floodplain, or flood plain, is a flat or nearly flat land adjacent a stream or river that stretches from the banks of its channel to the base of the enclosing valley walls and experiences flooding during periods of high discharge...
s, because it is the only available space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dyke
Levee
A levee, levée, dike , embankment, floodbank or stopbank is an elongated naturally occurring ridge or artificially constructed fill or wall, which regulates water levels...
s and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit needed to recover from disasters.
In a journal paper, Nicholls and Tol
Richard Tol
Richard S. J. Tol is a Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland, where he works in the research areas of energy economics and environmental economics...
(2006) considered the effects of sea level rise:
[...] The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 [IPCC] scenariosSpecial Report on Emissions ScenariosThe Special Report on Emissions Scenarios was prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2000, based on data developed at the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The emissions scenarios described in the Report have been used to make projections of possible future climate...
, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic ProductGross domestic productGross domestic product refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living....
(GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible.
Nicholls et al. (2007:338-339) assessed the literature on climate change impacts in coastal and low-lying areas. They concluded that the socioeconomic impacts of climate change would be overwhelmingly adverse. With very high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:
- coastal and low-lying areas would be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea level rise.
- by the 2080s, many millions more people would experience floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected were projected to be largest in the densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa. Small islands were judged to be especially vulnerable.
A study in the April 2007 issue of Environment and Urbanization reports that 634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9.1 m) of sea level (McGranahan et al., 2007, p. 24). The study also reported that about two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.
Northwest Passage
Arctic
The Arctic is a region located at the northern-most part of the Earth. The Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean and parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, the United States, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. The Arctic region consists of a vast, ice-covered ocean, surrounded by treeless permafrost...
ice may open the Northwest Passage
Northwest Passage
The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans...
in summer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia. This would be of particular benefit for supertankers which are too big to fit through the Panama Canal
Panama Canal
The Panama Canal is a ship canal in Panama that joins the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean and is a key conduit for international maritime trade. Built from 1904 to 1914, the canal has seen annual traffic rise from about 1,000 ships early on to 14,702 vessels measuring a total of 309.6...
and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's eastern Arctic Archipelago
Canadian Arctic Archipelago
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago, also known as the Arctic Archipelago, is a Canadian archipelago north of the Canadian mainland in the Arctic...
decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.
In September 2007, the Arctic Ice Cap retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history.
In August, 2008, melting sea ice
Sea ice
Sea ice is largely formed from seawater that freezes. Because the oceans consist of saltwater, this occurs below the freezing point of pure water, at about -1.8 °C ....
simultaneously opened up the Northwest Passage
Northwest Passage
The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans...
and the Northern Sea Route
Northern Sea Route
The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane officially defined by Russian legislation from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean specifically running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East. The entire route lies in Arctic...
, making it possible to sail around the Arctic ice cap. The Northwest Passage opened August 25, 2008, and the remaining tongue of ice blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Because of Arctic shrinkage
Arctic shrinkage
Ongoing changes in the climate of the Arctic include rising temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Projections of sea ice loss suggest that the Arctic ocean will likely be free of summer sea ice sometime between 2060 and 2080, while another estimate puts this date at...
, the Beluga Shipping
Beluga Shipping
Beluga Shipping is the name of a German project and heavy-lift shipping company in the Hanseatic city of Bremen.- History :Beluga Shipping was founded in December 1995 in Bremen, initially as a mere cargo operator. In 1998 the first own vessel of the company was acquired, the multipurpose...
group of Bremen
Bremen
The City Municipality of Bremen is a Hanseatic city in northwestern Germany. A commercial and industrial city with a major port on the river Weser, Bremen is part of the Bremen-Oldenburg metropolitan area . Bremen is the second most populous city in North Germany and tenth in Germany.Bremen is...
, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route
Northern Sea Route
The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane officially defined by Russian legislation from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean specifically running along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea, along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East. The entire route lies in Arctic...
in 2009.
Oil, coal and natural gas
Oil and natural gas infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects and climate change and the increased risk of disasters such as storms, cyclones, flooding and long-term increases in sea level. Minising these risks by building in less-disaster prone areas can be expensive and impossible in countries with coastal locations or island states. Secondly, all thermal power plants depend on water to cool them. This has to be fresh water as salt water can be corrosive. Not only is there increased demand for fresh water, but climate change can increase the likelihood of droughtDrought
A drought is an extended period of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. Generally, this occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. It can have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of the affected region...
and fresh water shortages. Thirdly, another impact for thermal power plants is that increasing the temperatures in which they operate reduces their efficiency and hence their output. Fourthly, the source of oil often comes from areas prone to high natural disaster risks, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, cyclones and floods. An example is that of Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was a powerful Atlantic hurricane. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall...
's impact on oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico is a partially landlocked ocean basin largely surrounded by the North American continent and the island of Cuba. It is bounded on the northeast, north and northwest by the Gulf Coast of the United States, on the southwest and south by Mexico, and on the southeast by Cuba. In...
, as it destroyed 126 oil and gas platforms and damaged 183 more.
Nuclear
Climate change, extreme weather and natural disasters can affect nuclear power plants in a similar way to those using oil, coal and natural gas. The damage caused to nuclear power plants is most tragically demonstrated by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disasterFukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster
The is a series of equipment failures, nuclear meltdowns, and releases of radioactive materials at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, following the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. The plant comprises six separate boiling water reactors originally designed by General Electric ,...
. However, the impact of water shortages on nuclear power plants is perhaps more visible than on other thermal power plants. Seawater is corrosive and so nuclear energy supply is likely to be negatively affected by the fresh water shortage. This generic problem may become increasingly significant over time. This can force nuclear reactors to be shut down, as happened in France during the 2003 and 2006 heat waves. Nuclear power supply was severely diminished by low river flow rates and droughts, which meant rivers had reached the maximum temperatures for cooling reactors. During the heat waves, 17 reactors had to limit output or shut down. 77% of French electricity is produced by nuclear power and in 2009 a similar situation created a 8GW shortage and forced the French government to import electricity. Other cases have been reported from Germany, where extreme temperatures have reduced nuclear power production 9 times due to high temperatures between 1979 and 2007. In particular:
- the Unterweser nuclear power plantUnterweser Nuclear Power PlantThe nuclear power station Unterweser is a nuclear power plant in Kleinensiel , in close proximity to Nordenham.When it first started up, it was the largest nuclear reactor in the world. It has 193 fuel assemblies...
reduced output by 90% between June and September 2003 - the Isar nuclear power plant cut production by 60% for 14 days due to excess river temperatures and low stream flow in the river Isar in 2006
Similar events have happened elsewhere in Europe during those same hot summers. If global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
continues, this disruption is likely to increase.
Hydroelectricity
Changes in the amount of river flow will correlate with the amount of energy produced by a dam. Lower river flows because of drought, climate change or upstream dams and diversions will reduce the amount of live storage in a reservoir therefore reducing the amount of water that can be used for hydroelectricity. The result of diminished river flow can be power shortages in areas that depend heavily on hydroelectric power. The risk of flow shortage may increase as a result of climate changeClimate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
. Studies from the Colorado River
Colorado River
The Colorado River , is a river in the Southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, approximately long, draining a part of the arid regions on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains. The watershed of the Colorado River covers in parts of seven U.S. states and two Mexican states...
in the United States suggest that modest climate changes, such as an increase in temperature in 2 degree Celsius resulting in a 10% decline in precipitation, might reduce river run-off by up to 40%. Brazil
Brazil
Brazil , officially the Federative Republic of Brazil , is the largest country in South America. It is the world's fifth largest country, both by geographical area and by population with over 192 million people...
in particular is vulnerable due to its heaving reliance on hydroelectricity, as increasing temperatures, lower water flow and alterations in the rainfall regime, could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century.
Insurance
An industry very directly affected by the risks is the insuranceInsurance
In law and economics, insurance is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss. Insurance is defined as the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity to another, in exchange for payment. An insurer is a company selling the...
industry. According to a 2005 report from the Association of British Insurers, limiting carbon emissions could avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. A June 2004 report by the Association of British Insurers declared "Climate change is not a remote issue for future generations to deal with. It is, in various forms, here already, impacting on insurers' businesses now." It noted that weather risks for households and property were already increasing by 2–4 % per year due to changing weather, and that claims for storm and flood damages in the UK had doubled to over £6 billion over the period 1998–2003, compared to the previous five years. The results are rising insurance premiums, and the risk that in some areas flood insurance
Flood insurance
Flood insurance denotes the specific insurance coverage against property loss from flooding. To determine risk factors for specific properties, insurers will often refer to topographical maps that denote lowlands, floodplains and floodways that are susceptible to flooding.-Hidden floods:Nationwide,...
will become unaffordable for some.
Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re
Munich Re
Munich Re Group is a reinsurance company based in Munich, Germany. It is one of the world’s leading reinsurers. ERGO, a Munich Re subsidiary, is the Group’s primary insurance arm....
and Swiss Re
Swiss Re
Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd , generally known as Swiss Re, is a Swiss reinsurance company. It is the world’s second-largest reinsurer, after having acquired GE Insurance Solutions. The company has its headquarters in Zurich...
, warned in a 2002 study that "the increasing frequency of severe climatic events, coupled with social trends" could cost almost US$
United States dollar
The United States dollar , also referred to as the American dollar, is the official currency of the United States of America. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents or pennies....
150 billion each year in the next decade. These costs would, through increased costs related to insurance and disaster relief, burden customers, taxpayers, and industry alike.
In the United States, insurance losses have also greatly increased. According to Choi and Fisher (2003) each 1% increase in annual precipitation could enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. Gross increases are mostly attributed to increased population and property values in vulnerable coastal areas, though there was also an increase in frequency of weather-related events like heavy rainfalls since the 1950s.
Transport
Roads, airport runways, railway lines and pipelines, (including oil pipelines, sewerSanitary sewer
A sanitary sewer is a separate underground carriage system specifically for transporting sewage from houses and commercial buildings to treatment or disposal. Sanitary sewers serving industrial areas also carry industrial wastewater...
s, water mains etc.) may require increased maintenance and renewal as they become subject to greater temperature variation. Regions already adversely affected include areas of permafrost
Permafrost
In geology, permafrost, cryotic soil or permafrost soil is soil at or below the freezing point of water for two or more years. Ice is not always present, as may be in the case of nonporous bedrock, but it frequently occurs and it may be in amounts exceeding the potential hydraulic saturation of...
, which are subject to high levels of subsidence
Subsidence
Subsidence is the motion of a surface as it shifts downward relative to a datum such as sea-level. The opposite of subsidence is uplift, which results in an increase in elevation...
, resulting in buckling roads, sunken foundations, and severely cracked runways.
Water resources
In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al. (2007:175) concluded, with high confidence, that:- the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems.
- Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.
Scarcity
Sea level rise is projected to increase salt-water intrusion into groundwaterGroundwater
Groundwater is water located beneath the ground surface in soil pore spaces and in the fractures of rock formations. A unit of rock or an unconsolidated deposit is called an aquifer when it can yield a usable quantity of water. The depth at which soil pore spaces or fractures and voids in rock...
in some regions, affecting drinking water and agriculture in coastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weather means more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of a replenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water supply.
The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different effects. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate
Irrigation
Irrigation may be defined as the science of artificial application of water to the land or soil. It is used to assist in the growing of agricultural crops, maintenance of landscapes, and revegetation of disturbed soils in dry areas and during periods of inadequate rainfall...
crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt. Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower.
Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.
In the Sahel
Sahel
The Sahel is the ecoclimatic and biogeographic zone of transition between the Sahara desert in the North and the Sudanian Savannas in the south.It stretches across the North African continent between the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea....
, there has been an unusually wet period from 1950 until 1970, followed by extremely dry years
Sahel drought
[[File:Greening Sahel 1982-1999.jpg|thumb|300px|Recent "Greening" of the Sahel: The results of trend analyses of time series over the Sahel region of seasonally integrated NDVI using NOAA AVHRR NDVI-data from 1982 to 1999...
from 1970 to 1990. From 1990 until 2004 rainfall returned to levels slightly below the 1898–1993 average, but year-to-year variability was high.
Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al., 2007:393). According to a literature assessment by Confalonieri et al. (2007:393), the effects of climate change to date have been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had:
- altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors
- increased heatwave-related deaths
With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:
- the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutritionMalnutritionMalnutrition is the condition that results from taking an unbalanced diet in which certain nutrients are lacking, in excess , or in the wrong proportions....
; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases. - climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC (2007d:48) expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries.
With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education, health care, and public-health infrastructure.
According to a 2009 journal paper by UCL
University College London
University College London is a public research university located in London, United Kingdom and the oldest and largest constituent college of the federal University of London...
academics, climate change and global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
pose the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century.
Direct effects of temperature rise
The most direct effect of climate change on humans might be the impacts of hotter temperatures themselves. Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die on a given day for many reasons: people with heart problems are vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool during hot weather, heat exhaustion, and some respiratory problems increase. Global warming could mean more cardiovascular diseaseCardiovascular disease
Heart disease or cardiovascular disease are the class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels . While the term technically refers to any disease that affects the cardiovascular system , it is usually used to refer to those related to atherosclerosis...
s, doctors warn. Higher air temperature also increase the concentration of ozone at ground level. In the lower atmosphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant. It damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases.
Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality
Death
Death is the permanent termination of the biological functions that sustain a living organism. Phenomena which commonly bring about death include old age, predation, malnutrition, disease, and accidents or trauma resulting in terminal injury....
: higher temperatures in winter reduce deaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths. The net local impact of these two direct effects depends on the current climate in a particular area. Palutikof et al. (1996) calculate that in England and Wales for a 1 °C temperature rise the reduced deaths from cold outweigh the increased deaths from heat, resulting in a reduction in annual average mortality of 7000, while Keatinge et al. (2000) “suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities.” Cold-related deaths are far more numerous than heat-related deaths in the United States, Europe, and almost all countries outside the tropics. During 1979–1999, a total of 3,829 deaths in the United States were associated with excessive heat due to weather conditions, while in that same period a total of 13,970 deaths were attributed to hypothermia
Hypothermia
Hypothermia is a condition in which core temperature drops below the required temperature for normal metabolism and body functions which is defined as . Body temperature is usually maintained near a constant level of through biologic homeostasis or thermoregulation...
. In Europe, mean annual heat related mortalities are 304 in North Finland, 445 in Athens, and 40 in London, while cold related mortalities are 2457, 2533, and 3129 respectively. According to Keatinge et al. (2000), “populations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5°C to 24.1°C, and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality.”
A government report shows decreased mortality due to recent warming and predicts increased mortality due to future warming in the United Kingdom. The 2003 European heat wave
2003 European heat wave
The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540. France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in Southern Europe...
killed 22,000–35,000 people, based on normal mortality rates. Peter A. Stott from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change — named in honour of George Hadley — is part of, and based at the headquarters of the Met Office in Exeter...
estimated with 90% confidence that past human influence on climate was responsible for at least half the risk of the 2003 European summer heat-wave.
Spread of disease
Global warming may extend the favourable zones for vectors conveying infectious diseaseInfectious disease
Infectious diseases, also known as communicable diseases, contagious diseases or transmissible diseases comprise clinically evident illness resulting from the infection, presence and growth of pathogenic biological agents in an individual host organism...
such as dengue fever
Dengue fever
Dengue fever , also known as breakbone fever, is an infectious tropical disease caused by the dengue virus. Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle and joint pains, and a characteristic skin rash that is similar to measles...
, West Nile virus
West Nile virus
West Nile virus is a virus of the family Flaviviridae. Part of the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of viruses, it is found in both tropical and temperate regions. It mainly infects birds, but is known to infect humans, horses, dogs, cats, bats, chipmunks, skunks, squirrels, domestic...
, and malaria
Malaria
Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease of humans and other animals caused by eukaryotic protists of the genus Plasmodium. The disease results from the multiplication of Plasmodium parasites within red blood cells, causing symptoms that typically include fever and headache, in severe cases...
. In poorer countries, this may simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. In richer countries, where such diseases have been eliminated or kept in check by vaccination
Vaccination
Vaccination is the administration of antigenic material to stimulate the immune system of an individual to develop adaptive immunity to a disease. Vaccines can prevent or ameliorate the effects of infection by many pathogens...
, draining swamps and using pesticides, the consequences may be felt more in economic than health terms. The World Health Organization
World Health Organization
The World Health Organization is a specialized agency of the United Nations that acts as a coordinating authority on international public health. Established on 7 April 1948, with headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, the agency inherited the mandate and resources of its predecessor, the Health...
(WHO) says global warming could lead to a major increase in insect-borne diseases in Britain and Europe, as northern Europe becomes warmer, ticks—which carry encephalitis
Encephalitis
Encephalitis is an acute inflammation of the brain. Encephalitis with meningitis is known as meningoencephalitis. Symptoms include headache, fever, confusion, drowsiness, and fatigue...
and lyme disease
Lyme disease
Lyme disease, or Lyme borreliosis, is an emerging infectious disease caused by at least three species of bacteria belonging to the genus Borrelia. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto is the main cause of Lyme disease in the United States, whereas Borrelia afzelii and Borrelia garinii cause most...
—and sandflies—which carry visceral leishmaniasis
Visceral leishmaniasis
Visceral leishmaniasis , also known as kala-azar, black fever, and Dumdum fever, is the most severe form of leishmaniasis. Leishmaniasis is a disease caused by protozoan parasites of the Leishmania genus. This disease is the second-largest parasitic killer in the world , responsible for an...
—are likely to move in. However, malaria has always been a common threat in European past, with the last epidemic occurring in the Netherlands during the 1950s. In the United States, Malaria has been endemic in as much as 36 states (including Washington, North Dakota, Michigan and New York) until the 1940s. By 1949, the country was declared free of malaria as a significant public health problem, after more than 4,650,000 house DDT
DDT
DDT is one of the most well-known synthetic insecticides. It is a chemical with a long, unique, and controversial history....
spray applications had been made.
The World Health Organisation estimates 150,000 deaths annually "as a result of climate change", of which half are in the Asia-Pacific region. In April 2008, it reported that, as a result of increased temperatures, the number of malaria
Malaria
Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease of humans and other animals caused by eukaryotic protists of the genus Plasmodium. The disease results from the multiplication of Plasmodium parasites within red blood cells, causing symptoms that typically include fever and headache, in severe cases...
infections is expected to increase in the highland
Highland (geography)
The term highland or upland is used to denote any mountainous region or elevated mountainous plateau. Generally speaking, the term upland tends to be used for ranges of hills, typically up to 500-600m, and highland for ranges of low mountains.The Scottish Highlands refers to the mountainous...
areas of Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea , officially the Independent State of Papua New Guinea, is a country in Oceania, occupying the eastern half of the island of New Guinea and numerous offshore islands...
.
Children
In 2007, the American Academy of PediatricsAmerican Academy of Pediatrics
The American Academy of Pediatrics is the major professional association of pediatricians in the United States. The AAP was founded in 1930 by 35 pediatricians to address pediatric healthcare standards. It currently has 60,000 members in primary care and sub-specialist areas...
issued the policy statement Global Climate Change and Children's Health:
- Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasterNatural disasterA natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard . It leads to financial, environmental or human losses...
s, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseaseInfectious diseaseInfectious diseases, also known as communicable diseases, contagious diseases or transmissible diseases comprise clinically evident illness resulting from the infection, presence and growth of pathogenic biological agents in an individual host organism...
s, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups.
On 2008-04-29, a UNICEF UK
UNICEF UK
UNICEF UK, also known as the United Kingdom Committee for UNICEF, is one of 36 UNICEF National Committees based in industrialised countries. The National Committees raise funds for the organisation's worldwide emergency and development work. In 2007, UNICEF UK raised £41.3 million for UNICEF’s work...
Report found that global warming is already reducing the quality of the world's most vulnerable children's lives and making it more difficult to meet the UN Millennium Development Goals
Millennium Development Goals
The Millennium Development Goals are eight international development goals that all 193 United Nations member states and at least 23 international organizations have agreed to achieve by the year 2015...
. Global warming will reduce access to clean water and food supplies
Food security
Food security refers to the availability of food and one's access to it. A household is considered food-secure when its occupants do not live in hunger or fear of starvation. According to the World Resources Institute, global per capita food production has been increasing substantially for the past...
, particularly in Africa and Asia. Disasters, violence and disease are expected to be more frequent and intense, making the future of the world's poorest children more bleak.
Limits of human survivability
Some areas of the world would start to surpass the wet-bulb temperatureWet-bulb temperature
The wet-bulb temperature is a type of temperature measurement that reflects the physical properties of a system with a mixture of a gas and a vapor, usually air and water vapor. Wet bulb temperature is the lowest temperature that can be reached by the evaporation of water only. It is the...
limit of human survivability with global warming of about 6.7 °C (12 °F) while a warming of 11.7 °C (21 °F) would put half of the world's population in an uninhabitable environment. In practice the survivable limit of global warming in these areas is probably lower and in practice some areas may experience lethal wet bulb tempatures even earlier, because this study conservatively projected the survival limit for persons who are out of the sun, in gale-force winds, doused with water, wearing no clothing, and not working.
Development
The combined effects of global warming may have particularly harsh effects on people and countries without the resources to mitigateMitigation of global warming
Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming. Mitigation is distinguished from adaptation to global warming, which involves acting to tolerate the effects of global warming...
those effects. This may slow economic development
Economic development
Economic development generally refers to the sustained, concerted actions of policymakers and communities that promote the standard of living and economic health of a specific area...
and poverty reduction
Poverty reduction
Poverty is the state of human beings who are poor. That is, they have little or no material means of surviving—little or no food, shelter, clothes, healthcare, education, and other physical means of living and improving one's life....
, and make it harder to achieve the Millennium Development Goals
Millennium Development Goals
The Millennium Development Goals are eight international development goals that all 193 United Nations member states and at least 23 international organizations have agreed to achieve by the year 2015...
(MDGs).
In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environment NGO
Non-governmental organization
A non-governmental organization is a legally constituted organization created by natural or legal persons that operates independently from any government. The term originated from the United Nations , and is normally used to refer to organizations that do not form part of the government and are...
s, issued a report
Up in Smoke on the effects of climate change on development. This report, and the July 2005 report Africa - Up in Smoke? predicted increased hunger and disease due to decreased rainfall and severe weather events, particularly in Africa. These are likely to have severe impacts on development for those affected.
In a literature assessment, Yohe et al. (2007:813) concluded that climate change would very likely make it more difficult for nations to achieve the MDGs for the middle of the century. In the short-term, it was judged very likely that climate change (as attributed with high confidence to human activities) would not be a significant extra impediment to nations reaching their 2015 Millennium Development Targets.
Migration
Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as TuvaluTuvalu
Tuvalu , formerly known as the Ellice Islands, is a Polynesian island nation located in the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and Australia. Its nearest neighbours are Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa and Fiji. It comprises four reef islands and five true atolls...
, Kiribati
Kiribati
Kiribati , officially the Republic of Kiribati, is an island nation located in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The permanent population exceeds just over 100,000 , and is composed of 32 atolls and one raised coral island, dispersed over 3.5 million square kilometres, straddling the...
, and the Maldives
Maldives
The Maldives , , officially Republic of Maldives , also referred to as the Maldive Islands, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean formed by a double chain of twenty-six atolls oriented north-south off India's Lakshadweep islands, between Minicoy Island and...
, are concerned about the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become economically unviable for them, creating climate refugee
Climate refugee
Environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and disruption of seasonal weather patterns...
s. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation.
Estimates
According to Wilbanks et al. (2007:365), estimates of the number of people who may become environmental migrants are, at best, guessword since:- migrations in areas impacted by climate change are not one-way and permanent
- the reasons for migration are often multiple and complex, and thus do not relate straightforwardly to climate change
- there are few reliable censuses or surveys in many parts of the world on which to base such estimates
- there is a lack of agreement on what an environmental migrant is.
In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees
Climate refugee
Environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and disruption of seasonal weather patterns...
at around 25 million. (Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugee
Refugee
A refugee is a person who outside her country of origin or habitual residence because she has suffered persecution on account of race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or because she is a member of a persecuted 'social group'. Such a person may be referred to as an 'asylum seeker' until...
s, which only includes migrants
Human migration
Human migration is physical movement by humans from one area to another, sometimes over long distances or in large groups. Historically this movement was nomadic, often causing significant conflict with the indigenous population and their displacement or cultural assimilation. Only a few nomadic...
fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the world’s governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050’s predicted 10 billion world population
World population
The world population is the total number of living humans on the planet Earth. As of today, it is estimated to be billion by the United States Census Bureau...
).
Security and conflict
An argument can be made that rising ethnic conflicts may be linked to competition over natural resources that are increasingly scarce as a result of climate change (Wilbanks et al., 2007:365). According to Wilbanks et al. (2007:365), other factors need to be taken into account. It was suggested that major environmentally-influenced conflicts in Africa have more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and diamonds, than with resource scarcity. On this basis, Wilbanks et al. (2007:365) suggested that predictions of future conflicts due climate change should be viewed with caution.Schneider et al. (2007:787) assessed the literature on key vulnerabilities to climate change. With high confidence, they predicted that stresses such as increased drought, water shortages, and riverine and coastal flooding would affect many local and regional populations. With medium confidence, it was predicted that these stresses would lead, in some cases, to relocation within or between countries. This might have the effect of exacerbating conflicts, and possibly impose migration pressures.
The Military Advisory Board
Military Advisory Board
The Military Advisory Board is a defense advisory group composed of eleven retired three-star and four-star generals and admirals who were convened to study the implications of global warming for U.S. national security....
, a panel of retired U.S. generals and admirals released a report entitled "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change." The report predicts that global warming will have security implications, in particular serving as a "threat multiplier" in already volatile regions. Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett
Margaret Beckett
Margaret Mary Beckett is a British Labour Party politician who has been the Member of Parliament for Derby South since 1983, rising to become the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party under John Smith, from 18 July 1992 to 12 May 1994, and briefly serving as Leader of the Party following Smith's death...
argues that “An unstable climate will exacerbate some of the core drivers of conflict, such as migratory pressures and competition for resources.” And several weeks earlier, U.S. Senators Chuck Hagel
Chuck Hagel
Charles Timothy "Chuck" Hagel is a former United States Senator from Nebraska. A member of the Republican Party, he was first elected in 1996 and was reelected in 2002...
(R-NB) and Richard Durbin (D-IL) introduced a bill in the U.S. Congress that would require federal intelligence agencies to collaborate on a National Intelligence Estimate
National Intelligence Estimate
National Intelligence Estimates are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence on intelligence related to a particular national security issue...
to evaluate the security challenges presented by climate change.
In November 2007, two Washington think tanks, the established Center for Strategic and International Studies
Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Center for Strategic and International Studies is a bipartisan Washington, D.C., foreign policy think tank. The center was founded in 1962 by Admiral Arleigh Burke and Ambassador David Manker Abshire, originally as part of Georgetown University...
and the newer Center for a New American Security
Center for a New American Security
The Center for a New American Security is a Washington, D.C.-based think tank established in 2007 by co-founders Michèle Flournoy and Kurt M. Campbell which specializes in U.S. national security issues...
, published a report analysing the worldwide security implications of three different global warming scenarios. The report considers three different scenarios, two over a roughly 30 year perspective and one covering the time up to 2100. Its general results conclude that flooding "...has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities. Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely..." and that "Perhaps the most worrisome problems associated with rising temperatures and sea levels are from large-scale migrations of people — both inside nations and across existing national borders."
A 2009 study questions the assumption that rising temperatures and violence are linked. Richard Tol and Sebastian Wagner collected data on climate and conflict in Europe between the years 1000 and 2000. They concluded that until the mid-18th century, there was a significant negative correlation between the number of conflicts and average temperature, but after that no statistically meaningful relationship can be observed. Tol and Wagner argue that the relationship between warfare and colder weather disappears around the time of the industrial revolution, when agriculture and transport improve dramatically. The Economist
The Economist
The Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
suggests that the lesson of their research is that climate-induced conflict can be minimised by continuing the process of crop improvement.
A study by Zhang et al. (2009) used paleoclimate data (paleoclimate is the study of past climate) to examine large scale effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. According to the study, long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes have followed cycles of temperature change.
See also
- Environmental Security and PeaceEnvironmental Security and PeaceEnvironmental Security and Peace is one of the one-year master's programs offered at the University for Peace. The Master of Arts Degree Programme in Environmental Security and Peace allows students to analyze the impacts of environmental stress and climate change on human livelihoods, health and...
(University for PeaceUniversity for PeaceThe University for Peace was established in Costa Rica in 1980 "to provide humanity with an international institution of higher education for peace and with the aim of promoting among all human beings the spirit of understanding, tolerance and peaceful coexistence."At present, the UPEACE Costa...
program) - Economics of global warmingEconomics of global warming-Definitions:In this article, the phrase “climate change” is used to describe a change in the climate, measured in terms of its statistical properties, e.g., the global mean surface temperature. In this context, “climate” is taken to mean the average weather. Climate can change over period of time...
External links
- List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change
- Climate change on the United Nations Economic and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website.
- Climate change on the United Nations Development ProgrammeUnited Nations Development ProgrammeThe United Nations Development Programme is the United Nations' global development network. It advocates for change and connects countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. UNDP operates in 177 countries, working with nations on their own solutions to...
(UNDP) website.
- "Social Development – Social Dimensions of Climate Change". The World BankWorld BankThe World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
. - The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website. This body assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.
- Health and environmental effects of climate change – US Environmental Protection AgencyUnited States Environmental Protection AgencyThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is an agency of the federal government of the United States charged with protecting human health and the environment, by writing and enforcing regulations based on laws passed by Congress...