Counterfactual thinking
Encyclopedia
Counterfactual thinking is a term of psychology
that describes the tendency people have to imagine alternatives to reality. Humans are predisposed to think about how things could have turned out differently if only..., and also to imagine what if?.
Counterfactual thinking is marked during the period immediately after a negotiation has ended. In this context, the participants are more likely to dwell on alternative outcomes which were plausibly missed rather than thinking about the unwanted consequences which were effectively avoided.
In fact, one of the most significant areas where counterfactuals arose was in social or political philosophy. Most treatments of society had to be limited to a strictly "logical" analysis, else they would be condemned to being viewed as "idealistic" or "unrealistic", certainly not "scientific". If one were to talk about how society might be different (for example, not based upon slavery), one was viewed as being hopelessly unscientific or even "romantic". How then to discuss a society not yet existent (a society without slavery, to continue the example)? Counterfactual reasoning provided such a way to escape the limits of a strictly "logical" analysis, yet not be idealistic. However, can counterfactual reasoning be viewed as "logical" (or scientific)?
The well known philosopher Nicholas Rescher
(as well as others) has written about the interrelationship between counterfactual reasoning and Modal logic
. The relationship between counterfactual reasoning based upon Modal logics may also be exploited in literature or Victorian Studies
, painting and poetry.
and Amos Tversky
(1982) pioneered the study of counterfactual thought, showing that people tend to think 'if only' more often about exceptional events than about normal events. Many related tendencies have since been examined, e.g., whether the event is an action or inaction, whether it is controllable, its place in the temporal order of events, or its causal relation to other events (Mandel, Hilton, & Catellani, 2005).
and Dale Miller (1986) proposed that the cognitive processes that give rise to counterfactual thoughts include memory retrieval processes by which exceptional events recruit their normal counterparts. Ruth M.J. Byrne (2005) proposed that the mental representations and cognitive processes that underlie the imagination of alternatives to reality are similar to those that underlie rational thought, including reasoning from counterfactual conditionals.
comedy series The Big Bang Theory
, Sheldon Cooper
and Amy Farrah Fowler develop a game called 'Counterfactuals' which is based on changing one accepted state of the universe and postulating the answer to a question based on such a change. For example: "In a world where Rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?"
Psychology
Psychology is the study of the mind and behavior. Its immediate goal is to understand individuals and groups by both establishing general principles and researching specific cases. For many, the ultimate goal of psychology is to benefit society...
that describes the tendency people have to imagine alternatives to reality. Humans are predisposed to think about how things could have turned out differently if only..., and also to imagine what if?.
Overview
A person may imagine how an outcome could have turned out differently, and they can reflect on how the antecedents that led to the event might have been different. For example, a person may reflect upon how a car accident could have turned out, and they can reflect on how some of the antecedents might have been different e.g., if only I hadn't been speeding... or the same even if I had been going slower.... People can imagine alternatives that are better or worse than reality, e.g., if only I hadn't been speeding, my car wouldn't have been wrecked or if I hadn't been wearing a seatbelt I would have been killed (Roese & Olson, 1995). People can contemplate the consequences of the alternative outcome. Their counterfactual thoughts can affect their emotions, such as regret, guilt, relief, or satisfaction; their social ascriptions such as blame and responsibility, and their causal judgments (Markman, Klein, & Suhr, 2009).Counterfactual thinking is marked during the period immediately after a negotiation has ended. In this context, the participants are more likely to dwell on alternative outcomes which were plausibly missed rather than thinking about the unwanted consequences which were effectively avoided.
In fact, one of the most significant areas where counterfactuals arose was in social or political philosophy. Most treatments of society had to be limited to a strictly "logical" analysis, else they would be condemned to being viewed as "idealistic" or "unrealistic", certainly not "scientific". If one were to talk about how society might be different (for example, not based upon slavery), one was viewed as being hopelessly unscientific or even "romantic". How then to discuss a society not yet existent (a society without slavery, to continue the example)? Counterfactual reasoning provided such a way to escape the limits of a strictly "logical" analysis, yet not be idealistic. However, can counterfactual reasoning be viewed as "logical" (or scientific)?
The well known philosopher Nicholas Rescher
Nicholas Rescher
Nicholas Rescher is an American philosopher at the University of Pittsburgh. In a productive research career extending over six decades, Rescher has established himself as a systematic philosopher of the old style and author of a system of pragmatic idealism which weaves together threads of...
(as well as others) has written about the interrelationship between counterfactual reasoning and Modal logic
Modal logic
Modal logic is a type of formal logic that extends classical propositional and predicate logic to include operators expressing modality. Modals — words that express modalities — qualify a statement. For example, the statement "John is happy" might be qualified by saying that John is...
. The relationship between counterfactual reasoning based upon Modal logics may also be exploited in literature or Victorian Studies
Victorian Studies
Victorian Studies is a peer-reviewed academic journal, published quarterly by Indiana University Press. It covers research on nineteenth-century Britain during the reign of Queen Victoria and publishes essays, forums, and reviews on a variety of topics concerning Victorianism, including...
, painting and poetry.
History
Daniel KahnemanDaniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate. He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology....
and Amos Tversky
Amos Tversky
Amos Nathan Tversky, was a cognitive and mathematical psychologist, a pioneer of cognitive science, a longtime collaborator of Daniel Kahneman, and a key figure in the discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk. Much of his early work concerned the foundations of measurement...
(1982) pioneered the study of counterfactual thought, showing that people tend to think 'if only' more often about exceptional events than about normal events. Many related tendencies have since been examined, e.g., whether the event is an action or inaction, whether it is controllable, its place in the temporal order of events, or its causal relation to other events (Mandel, Hilton, & Catellani, 2005).
Theories of Counterfactual Thinking
Daniel KahnemanDaniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate. He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology....
and Dale Miller (1986) proposed that the cognitive processes that give rise to counterfactual thoughts include memory retrieval processes by which exceptional events recruit their normal counterparts. Ruth M.J. Byrne (2005) proposed that the mental representations and cognitive processes that underlie the imagination of alternatives to reality are similar to those that underlie rational thought, including reasoning from counterfactual conditionals.
In Popular Culture
In the fourth series of the CBSCBS
CBS Broadcasting Inc. is a major US commercial broadcasting television network, which started as a radio network. The name is derived from the initials of the network's former name, Columbia Broadcasting System. The network is sometimes referred to as the "Eye Network" in reference to the shape of...
comedy series The Big Bang Theory
The Big Bang Theory
The Big Bang Theory is an American sitcom created by Chuck Lorre and Bill Prady, both of whom serve as executive producers on the show, along with Steven Molaro. All three also serve as head writers...
, Sheldon Cooper
Sheldon Cooper
Sheldon Lee Cooper, B.S., M.S., M.A., Ph.D., Sc.D. is a fictional character from Texas on the CBS television series The Big Bang Theory, portrayed by actor Jim Parsons...
and Amy Farrah Fowler develop a game called 'Counterfactuals' which is based on changing one accepted state of the universe and postulating the answer to a question based on such a change. For example: "In a world where Rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?"