David Orrell
Encyclopedia
David John Orrell is a Canadian
mathematician
and author who is living in Oxford
, England
. He received his doctorate in mathematics
from the University of Oxford
. His work in the prediction of complex systems
such as the weather
, genetics
and the economy
has been featured in New Scientist
, London’s Financial Times
, Adbusters
, BBC Radio
, and CBC TV. His theory that errors in weather forecasts are due not to chaos (the "butterfly effect
") but to model error stirred up a storm of debate in meteorological circles. He now conducts research and writes in the areas of systems biology
and economics
, and runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. He is the son of theatre historian and English professor John Orrell
.
His book Apollo's Arrow : The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything was a national bestseller and finalist for the 2007 Canadian Science Writers' Award. Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong was a finalist for the 2011 National Business Book Award.
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
mathematician
Mathematician
A mathematician is a person whose primary area of study is the field of mathematics. Mathematicians are concerned with quantity, structure, space, and change....
and author who is living in Oxford
Oxford
The city of Oxford is the county town of Oxfordshire, England. The city, made prominent by its medieval university, has a population of just under 165,000, with 153,900 living within the district boundary. It lies about 50 miles north-west of London. The rivers Cherwell and Thames run through...
, England
England
England is a country that is part of the United Kingdom. It shares land borders with Scotland to the north and Wales to the west; the Irish Sea is to the north west, the Celtic Sea to the south west, with the North Sea to the east and the English Channel to the south separating it from continental...
. He received his doctorate in mathematics
Mathematics
Mathematics is the study of quantity, space, structure, and change. Mathematicians seek out patterns and formulate new conjectures. Mathematicians resolve the truth or falsity of conjectures by mathematical proofs, which are arguments sufficient to convince other mathematicians of their validity...
from the University of Oxford
University of Oxford
The University of Oxford is a university located in Oxford, United Kingdom. It is the second-oldest surviving university in the world and the oldest in the English-speaking world. Although its exact date of foundation is unclear, there is evidence of teaching as far back as 1096...
. His work in the prediction of complex systems
Complex systems
Complex systems present problems in mathematical modelling.The equations from which complex system models are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of systems of nature that are considered...
such as the weather
Weather
Weather is the state of the atmosphere, to the degree that it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. Most weather phenomena occur in the troposphere, just below the stratosphere. Weather refers, generally, to day-to-day temperature and precipitation activity, whereas climate...
, genetics
Genetics
Genetics , a discipline of biology, is the science of genes, heredity, and variation in living organisms....
and the economy
Economy
An economy consists of the economic system of a country or other area; the labor, capital and land resources; and the manufacturing, trade, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area...
has been featured in New Scientist
New Scientist
New Scientist is a weekly non-peer-reviewed English-language international science magazine, which since 1996 has also run a website, covering recent developments in science and technology for a general audience. Founded in 1956, it is published by Reed Business Information Ltd, a subsidiary of...
, London’s Financial Times
Financial Times
The Financial Times is an international business newspaper. It is a morning daily newspaper published in London and printed in 24 cities around the world. Its primary rival is the Wall Street Journal, published in New York City....
, Adbusters
AdBusters
The Adbusters Media Foundation is a Canadian-based not-for-profit, anti-consumerist, pro-environment organization founded in 1989 by Kalle Lasn and Bill Schmalz in Vancouver, British Columbia...
, BBC Radio
BBC Radio
BBC Radio is a service of the British Broadcasting Corporation which has operated in the United Kingdom under the terms of a Royal Charter since 1927. For a history of BBC radio prior to 1927 see British Broadcasting Company...
, and CBC TV. His theory that errors in weather forecasts are due not to chaos (the "butterfly effect
Butterfly effect
In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions; where a small change at one place in a nonlinear system can result in large differences to a later state...
") but to model error stirred up a storm of debate in meteorological circles. He now conducts research and writes in the areas of systems biology
Systems biology
Systems biology is a term used to describe a number of trends in bioscience research, and a movement which draws on those trends. Proponents describe systems biology as a biology-based inter-disciplinary study field that focuses on complex interactions in biological systems, claiming that it uses...
and economics
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
, and runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. He is the son of theatre historian and English professor John Orrell
John Orrell
John Orrell was an author, theatre historian, and English professor at the University of Alberta. The New York Times described him as the “historian whose intellectual detective work laid the groundwork for the 1997 re-creation of Shakespeare’s original Globe Theater.”-Life and work:Orrell was...
.
His book Apollo's Arrow : The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything was a national bestseller and finalist for the 2007 Canadian Science Writers' Award. Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong was a finalist for the 2011 National Business Book Award.
Books
- Introducing Economics, with graphics by Borin Van LoonBorin Van LoonBorin Van Loon is a freelance illustrator . He is an author, collagist and surrealist painter and has worked for a wide variety of clients in editorial, publishing and promotion...
(2011). - Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong (2010).
- The Other Side of the Coin: The Emerging Vision of Economics and Our Place in The World (2008).
- Gaia (2008).
- Apollo's Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything (2007). Published in the U.S. as The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction.
See also
- Anticipatory science forecasts
- Complex systemsComplex systemsComplex systems present problems in mathematical modelling.The equations from which complex system models are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of systems of nature that are considered...
- Mathematical modelMathematical modelA mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used not only in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines A mathematical model is a...
- Computer model
- Chaos theoryChaos theoryChaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including physics, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, an effect which is popularly referred to as the...
- Systems BiologySystems biologySystems biology is a term used to describe a number of trends in bioscience research, and a movement which draws on those trends. Proponents describe systems biology as a biology-based inter-disciplinary study field that focuses on complex interactions in biological systems, claiming that it uses...
External links
- http://www.postpythagorean.com David Orrell's homepage
- http://www.systemsforecasting.com Systems Forecasting
- http://fora.tv/2010/12/01/David_Orrell_The_Science_of_Prediction#The_Science_of_Prediction_and_the_Future_of_Everything Video of talk given at the 2010 World Technology Summit in New York
- http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/taking-stock/economists-and-their-fairy-tale-world-of-prognostication/article1713851/ Interview with The Globe and Mail
- http://www.financialpost.com/news/predictable+economists+think/3541885/story.html Interview with the National Post
- http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Technology/story?id=2628804&page=1 ABC News - Good Morming America (excerpts from Apollo's Arrow)
- http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=07407be3-1f9f-4f41-a16a-5a286a5b374c&k=53926 National Post's review of Apollo's Arrow