David Spiegelhalter
Encyclopedia
David John Spiegelhalter OBE, FRS, (16 August 1953–) is a distinguished British
statistician
. In 2007 he was elected Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk
in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge
. He divides his work between the Statistical Laboratory (three fifths) and the Medical Research Council
Biostatistics
Unit (two fifths). Spiegelhalter is an ISI highly cited researcher
and is the 34th most-cited mathematical scientist in the world over the last ten years .
(Bachelor of Arts
1974) and University College London
(Master of Science
1975, PhD
1978; supervised by Adrian Smith ).
in 1976 and then visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley
, 1977–8. After his PhD, he was a research assistant for the Royal College of Physicians
; he was based at the University of Nottingham
, where his PhD supervisor, Adrian Smith, had been appointed a professor.
Since 1981, he has been at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge. He has been an honorary lecturer at the University of Hong Kong since 1991. He has also been a consultant for GlaxoSmithKline
, Novartis
and the World Anti-Doping Agency
. He played a leading role in the public inquiries into children's heart surgery at the Bristol Royal Infirmary
and the murders by Harold Shipman
.
His main interests outside work are his stained glass
work, samba
drumming and treks in various parts of the world .
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
statistician
Statistician
A statistician is someone who works with theoretical or applied statistics. The profession exists in both the private and public sectors. The core of that work is to measure, interpret, and describe the world and human activity patterns within it...
. In 2007 he was elected Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk
Winton Professorship of the Public Understanding of Risk
The Winton Professorship of the Public Understanding of Risk is a professorship within the Statistical Laboratory of the University of Cambridge. It was established in 2007 in perpetuity by a benefaction of £3.3m from the Winton Charitable Foundation, and is the only professorship of its type in...
in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge
Churchill College, Cambridge
Churchill College is a constituent college of the University of Cambridge, England.In 1958, a Trust was established with Sir Winston Churchill as its Chairman of Trustees, to build and endow a college for 60 fellows and 540 Students as a national and Commonwealth memorial to Winston Churchill; its...
. He divides his work between the Statistical Laboratory (three fifths) and the Medical Research Council
Medical Research Council (UK)
The Medical Research Council is a publicly-funded agency responsible for co-ordinating and funding medical research in the United Kingdom. It is one of seven Research Councils in the UK and is answerable to, although politically independent from, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
Biostatistics
Biostatistics
Biostatistics is the application of statistics to a wide range of topics in biology...
Unit (two fifths). Spiegelhalter is an ISI highly cited researcher
ISI highly cited researcher
ISI Highly Cited is a database of "highly cited researchers"—scientific researchers whose publications are most often cited in academic journals over the past decade, published by the Institute for Scientific Information...
and is the 34th most-cited mathematical scientist in the world over the last ten years .
Education
Spiegelhalter studied at the University of OxfordUniversity of Oxford
The University of Oxford is a university located in Oxford, United Kingdom. It is the second-oldest surviving university in the world and the oldest in the English-speaking world. Although its exact date of foundation is unclear, there is evidence of teaching as far back as 1096...
(Bachelor of Arts
Bachelor of Arts
A Bachelor of Arts , from the Latin artium baccalaureus, is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate course or program in either the liberal arts, the sciences, or both...
1974) and University College London
University College London
University College London is a public research university located in London, United Kingdom and the oldest and largest constituent college of the federal University of London...
(Master of Science
Master of Science
A Master of Science is a postgraduate academic master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is typically studied for in the sciences including the social sciences.-Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay:...
1975, PhD
PHD
PHD may refer to:*Ph.D., a doctorate of philosophy*Ph.D. , a 1980s British group*PHD finger, a protein sequence*PHD Mountain Software, an outdoor clothing and equipment company*PhD Docbook renderer, an XML renderer...
1978; supervised by Adrian Smith ).
Career
Spiegelhalter was research assistant in Brunel UniversityBrunel University
Brunel University is a public research university located in Uxbridge, London, United Kingdom. The university is named after the Victorian engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel....
in 1976 and then visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley
University of California, Berkeley
The University of California, Berkeley , is a teaching and research university established in 1868 and located in Berkeley, California, USA...
, 1977–8. After his PhD, he was a research assistant for the Royal College of Physicians
Royal College of Physicians
The Royal College of Physicians of London was founded in 1518 as the College of Physicians by royal charter of King Henry VIII in 1518 - the first medical institution in England to receive a royal charter...
; he was based at the University of Nottingham
University of Nottingham
The University of Nottingham is a public research university based in Nottingham, United Kingdom, with further campuses in Ningbo, China and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia...
, where his PhD supervisor, Adrian Smith, had been appointed a professor.
Since 1981, he has been at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge. He has been an honorary lecturer at the University of Hong Kong since 1991. He has also been a consultant for GlaxoSmithKline
GlaxoSmithKline
GlaxoSmithKline plc is a global pharmaceutical, biologics, vaccines and consumer healthcare company headquartered in London, United Kingdom...
, Novartis
Novartis
Novartis International AG is a multinational pharmaceutical company based in Basel, Switzerland, ranking number three in sales among the world-wide industry...
and the World Anti-Doping Agency
World Anti-Doping Agency
The World Anti-Doping Agency , , is an independent foundation created through a collective initiative led by the International Olympic Committee . It was set up on November 10, 1999 in Lausanne, Switzerland, as a result of what was called the "Declaration of Lausanne", to promote, coordinate and...
. He played a leading role in the public inquiries into children's heart surgery at the Bristol Royal Infirmary
Bristol Royal Infirmary
The Bristol Royal Infirmary, also known as the BRI, is a large teaching hospital situated in the centre of Bristol, England. It has links with the medical faculty of the nearby University of Bristol, and the Faculty of Health and Social Care at the University of the West of England, also in...
and the murders by Harold Shipman
Harold Shipman
Harold Fredrick Shipman was an English doctor and one of the most prolific serial killers in recorded history with 218 murders being positively ascribed to him....
.
His main interests outside work are his stained glass
Stained glass
The term stained glass can refer to coloured glass as a material or to works produced from it. Throughout its thousand-year history, the term has been applied almost exclusively to the windows of churches and other significant buildings...
work, samba
Samba
Samba is a Brazilian dance and musical genre originating in Bahia and with its roots in Brazil and Africa via the West African slave trade and African religious traditions. It is recognized around the world as a symbol of Brazil and the Brazilian Carnival...
drumming and treks in various parts of the world .
Research interests
- BayesianBayesian statisticsBayesian statistics is that subset of the entire field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of degrees of belief or, more specifically, Bayesian probabilities...
approach to clinical trials, expert systems and complex modelling and epidemiology. - Graphical modelGraphical modelA graphical model is a probabilistic model for which a graph denotes the conditional independence structure between random variables. They are commonly used in probability theory, statistics—particularly Bayesian statistics—and machine learning....
s of conditional independence. He wrote several papers in the 1980s that showed how probability could be incorporated into expert systems, a problem that seemed intractable at the time. Spiegelhalter showed that while frequentist probability did not lend itself to expert systems, Bayesian probability most certainly did.
- Markov chain Monte CarloMarkov chain Monte CarloMarkov chain Monte Carlo methods are a class of algorithms for sampling from probability distributions based on constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution. The state of the chain after a large number of steps is then used as a sample of the...
methods. In the 1990s Spiegelhalter led the Medical Research CouncilMedical Research Council (UK)The Medical Research Council is a publicly-funded agency responsible for co-ordinating and funding medical research in the United Kingdom. It is one of seven Research Councils in the UK and is answerable to, although politically independent from, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
team that developed BUGSWinBUGSWinBUGS is statistical software for Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.It is based on the BUGS project started in 1989...
, a general-purpose statistical program for computing non-conjugate multi-level modelMultilevel modelMultilevel models are statistical models of parameters that vary at more than one level...
s using the newly discovered MCMC methods. At the time, this was the only general purpose software for non-conjugate Bayesian inference and it was crucial to the explosive growth of Bayesian analysis that occurred at this time. - General issues in clinical trials, including cluster randomisation, meta-analysis and ethical monitoring.
- Monitoring and comparing clinical and public health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators.
- Public understanding of risk, including promoting concepts such as the micromortMicromortA micromort is a unit of risk measuring a one-in-a-million probability of death . Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was...
(a one in a million chance of death). Media reporting of statistics, risk and probability and the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable.
Honours
- 1975 Fellow, Royal Statistical SocietyRoyal Statistical SocietyThe Royal Statistical Society is a learned society for statistics and a professional body for statisticians in the UK.-History:It was founded in 1834 as the Statistical Society of London , though a perhaps unrelated London Statistical Society was in existence at least as early as 1824...
- 1985 Guy Medal in Bronze, Royal Statistical Society
- 1989 Award for Outstanding Application Paper, American Statistical AssociationAmerican Statistical AssociationThe American Statistical Association , is the main professional US organization for statisticians and related professions. It was founded in Boston, Massachusetts on November 27, 1839, and is the second oldest, continuously operating professional society in the United States...
- 1993 Chartered Statistician, Royal Statistical Society
- 1994 Guy Medal in Silver, Royal Statistical Society
- 1994 Honorary Doctorate, University of AalborgUniversity of AalborgAalborg University is located in Aalborg, Denmark. With its opening in 1974 it became the fifth university in Denmark. In 1995 Esbjerg Engineering College was integrated in the university followed by the creation of the School of Architecture & Design in 1996, the inauguration of the Copenhagen...
, DenmarkDenmarkDenmark is a Scandinavian country in Northern Europe. The countries of Denmark and Greenland, as well as the Faroe Islands, constitute the Kingdom of Denmark . It is the southernmost of the Nordic countries, southwest of Sweden and south of Norway, and bordered to the south by Germany. Denmark... - 2005 Fellow, elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of London
- 2006 Received an OBE in the Queen's Birthday HonoursQueen's Birthday HonoursThe Queen's Birthday Honours is a part of the British honours system, being a civic occasion on the celebration of the Queen's Official Birthday in which new members of most Commonwealth Realms honours are named. The awards are presented by the reigning monarch or head of state, currently Queen...
- 2006 Appointed Honorary Professor of Biostatistics at University of CambridgeUniversity of CambridgeThe University of Cambridge is a public research university located in Cambridge, United Kingdom. It is the second-oldest university in both the United Kingdom and the English-speaking world , and the seventh-oldest globally...
- 2009 Weldon Memorial Prize and MedalWeldon Memorial PrizeThe Weldon Memorial Prize, also known as the Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal, is given yearly by the University of Oxford. The prize is to be awarded...