Flipism
Encyclopedia
Flipism, sometimes written as "Flippism," is a pseudophilosophy
under which all decisions
are made by flipping a coin
. It originally appeared in the Disney comic
"Flip Decision
" by Carl Barks
, published in 1953. Barks called a practitioner of "Flipism" a "Flippist" (with two P's).
Flipism can be seen as a normative
decision theory
, although it does not fulfill the criteria of rationality
.
meets Professor Batty, who persuades Donald to make decisions based on flipping a coin at every crossroad of life. "Life is but a gamble! Let flipism chart your ramble!" Donald soon gets into trouble when following this advice. He drives a one way road in the wrong direction and is fined $50. The reason for the fine is not the bad driving but letting the coin do the thinking. Indeed, there are those who view the resort to Flipism to be a disavowal of responsibility for making personal and societal decisions based upon rationality. However, in the end, flipism shows surprising efficiency in guiding some decisions.
in a sense that it prescribes how decisions should be made. In the cartoon, flipism shows remarkable ability to make right conclusions without any information – but only once in a while. Of course, in real life flipping a coin would only lead to random decisions. However, there is an article about benefits of some randomness in the decision-making process in certain conditions. It notes:
Commitment to a non-trivial mixed strategy can be beneficial for the informed party in a potential conflict under asymmetric information, as it allows the player to manipulate his opponent’s beliefs in an optimal fashion. Such a strategy also makes the player less inclined to enter into conflict when it is avoidable. Coins and "flipism" have been used to suggest mathematical outcomes to a variation of the Prisoners Dilemma.
Another way of seeing the utility of flipism in decision-making can be called revealed preference
s. In the traditional form, revealed preferences mean that the preferences of consumers can be revealed by their purchasing habits. With flipism, the preferences can be revealed to the decision-maker themselves. Decisions with conflicting preferences are especially difficult even in situations where there is only one decision-maker and no uncertainty. The decision options may be either all appealing or all unpleasant, and therefore the decision-maker is unable to choose. Flipism, i.e., flipping a coin can be used to find a solution. However, the decision-maker should not decide based on the coin but instead observe his or her own feelings about the outcome; whether it was relieving or agonizing. In this way, flipism removes the mental block related to the act of decision-making, and the post-decision preferences can be revealed before the decision is actually made. An example of revealed preferences is embodied in the Old Testament
story, the Judgment of Solomon
, wherein King Solomon offered to resolve a child custody
dispute by ordering the baby cut in two, and upon seeing the reactions made an award.
Still a third approach is to look at flipism as the endpoint of a continuum bounded on the other side by perfectly rational decision-making
. Flipism requires the minimum possible cognitive overhead to make decisions, at the price of making sub-optimized choices. Truly rational decision-making requires a tremendous investment in information and cognition to arrive at an optimum decision. However, the expected marginal value
of information gathered (discounted for risk and uncertainty) is often lower than the marginal cost
of the information or processing itself. The concept of bounded rationality
posits that people employ cognitive parsimony
, gathering only what they expect to be sufficient information to arrive at a satisfying (or "good enough") solution. Flipism is therefore a perfectly rational strategy to employ when the cost of information is very high relative to its expected value. Compare Motivated tactician
.
This is a commonly recognized decision making technique used in everyday life. Other methods include:
Pseudophilosophy
Pseudophilosophy is a term applied to philosophical ideas or systems which are claimed not to meet mainstream academic standards. The term is almost always used pejoratively and is often contentious...
under which all decisions
Decision making
Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.- Overview :Human performance in decision terms...
are made by flipping a coin
Coin flipping
Coin flipping or coin tossing or heads or tails is the practice of throwing a coin in the air to choose between two alternatives, sometimes to resolve a dispute between two parties...
. It originally appeared in the Disney comic
Disney comics
Disney comics are comic books and comic strips featuring Walt Disney characters.The first Disney comics were newspaper strips appearing from 1930 on . In 1940, Western Publishing began producing Disney comic books in the United States...
"Flip Decision
Flip Decision
"Flip Decision" is a Donald Duck comic book story written and illustrated by Carl Barks in June 1952. As with many other Barks stories, it was originally untitled...
" by Carl Barks
Carl Barks
Carl Barks was an American Disney Studio illustrator and comic book creator, who invented Duckburg and many of its inhabitants, such as Scrooge McDuck , Gladstone Gander , the Beagle Boys , The Junior Woodchucks , Gyro Gearloose , Cornelius Coot , Flintheart Glomgold , John D...
, published in 1953. Barks called a practitioner of "Flipism" a "Flippist" (with two P's).
Flipism can be seen as a normative
Normative
Normative has specialized contextual meanings in several academic disciplines. Generically, it means relating to an ideal standard or model. In practice, it has strong connotations of relating to a typical standard or model ....
decision theory
Decision theory
Decision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision...
, although it does not fulfill the criteria of rationality
Rationality
In philosophy, rationality is the exercise of reason. It is the manner in which people derive conclusions when considering things deliberately. It also refers to the conformity of one's beliefs with one's reasons for belief, or with one's actions with one's reasons for action...
.
Origin
In the comic book, Donald DuckDonald Duck
Donald Fauntleroy Duck is a cartoon character created in 1934 at Walt Disney Productions and licensed by The Walt Disney Company. Donald is an anthropomorphic white duck with a yellow-orange bill, legs, and feet. He typically wears a sailor suit with a cap and a black or red bow tie. Donald is most...
meets Professor Batty, who persuades Donald to make decisions based on flipping a coin at every crossroad of life. "Life is but a gamble! Let flipism chart your ramble!" Donald soon gets into trouble when following this advice. He drives a one way road in the wrong direction and is fined $50. The reason for the fine is not the bad driving but letting the coin do the thinking. Indeed, there are those who view the resort to Flipism to be a disavowal of responsibility for making personal and societal decisions based upon rationality. However, in the end, flipism shows surprising efficiency in guiding some decisions.
Flipism in decision-making
Flipism is a normative decision theoryDecision theory
Decision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision...
in a sense that it prescribes how decisions should be made. In the cartoon, flipism shows remarkable ability to make right conclusions without any information – but only once in a while. Of course, in real life flipping a coin would only lead to random decisions. However, there is an article about benefits of some randomness in the decision-making process in certain conditions. It notes:
Though the author himself may have intended this as a rejection of the idea that rationality (in the standard sense) has some special claim to superiority as a basis for making decisions, what he may really have discovered are the potential benefits of
strategic commitment to randomization.
Commitment to a non-trivial mixed strategy can be beneficial for the informed party in a potential conflict under asymmetric information, as it allows the player to manipulate his opponent’s beliefs in an optimal fashion. Such a strategy also makes the player less inclined to enter into conflict when it is avoidable. Coins and "flipism" have been used to suggest mathematical outcomes to a variation of the Prisoners Dilemma.
Another way of seeing the utility of flipism in decision-making can be called revealed preference
Revealed preference
Revealed preference theory, pioneered by American economist Paul Samuelson, is a method by which it is possible to discern the best possible option on the basis of consumer behavior. Essentially, this means that the preferences of consumers can be revealed by their purchasing habits...
s. In the traditional form, revealed preferences mean that the preferences of consumers can be revealed by their purchasing habits. With flipism, the preferences can be revealed to the decision-maker themselves. Decisions with conflicting preferences are especially difficult even in situations where there is only one decision-maker and no uncertainty. The decision options may be either all appealing or all unpleasant, and therefore the decision-maker is unable to choose. Flipism, i.e., flipping a coin can be used to find a solution. However, the decision-maker should not decide based on the coin but instead observe his or her own feelings about the outcome; whether it was relieving or agonizing. In this way, flipism removes the mental block related to the act of decision-making, and the post-decision preferences can be revealed before the decision is actually made. An example of revealed preferences is embodied in the Old Testament
Old Testament
The Old Testament, of which Christians hold different views, is a Christian term for the religious writings of ancient Israel held sacred and inspired by Christians which overlaps with the 24-book canon of the Masoretic Text of Judaism...
story, the Judgment of Solomon
Judgment of Solomon
The Judgment of Solomon refers to a story from the Hebrew Bible in which King Solomon of Israel ruled between two women both claiming to be the mother of a child. It has become a metaphor referring to a wise judge who uses a stratagem to determine the truth, tricking the parties into revealing...
, wherein King Solomon offered to resolve a child custody
Child custody
Child custody and guardianship are legal terms which are used to describe the legal and practical relationship between a parent and his or her child, such as the right of the parent to make decisions for the child, and the parent's duty to care for the child.Following ratification of the United...
dispute by ordering the baby cut in two, and upon seeing the reactions made an award.
Still a third approach is to look at flipism as the endpoint of a continuum bounded on the other side by perfectly rational decision-making
Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory, also known as choice theory or rational action theory, is a framework for understanding and often formally modeling social and economic behavior. It is the main theoretical paradigm in the currently-dominant school of microeconomics...
. Flipism requires the minimum possible cognitive overhead to make decisions, at the price of making sub-optimized choices. Truly rational decision-making requires a tremendous investment in information and cognition to arrive at an optimum decision. However, the expected marginal value
Marginal value
A marginal value is#a value that holds true given particular constraints,#the change in a value associated with a specific change in some independent variable, whether it be of that variable or of a dependent variable, or...
of information gathered (discounted for risk and uncertainty) is often lower than the marginal cost
Marginal cost
In economics and finance, marginal cost is the change in total cost that arises when the quantity produced changes by one unit. That is, it is the cost of producing one more unit of a good...
of the information or processing itself. The concept of bounded rationality
Bounded rationality
Bounded rationality is the idea that in decision making, rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision...
posits that people employ cognitive parsimony
Cognitive miser
Cognitive miser is a term which refers to the idea that only a small amount of information is actively perceived by individuals when making decisions, and many cognitive shortcuts are used instead to attend to relevant information and arrive at a decision. The term was coined by Susan T. Fiske and...
, gathering only what they expect to be sufficient information to arrive at a satisfying (or "good enough") solution. Flipism is therefore a perfectly rational strategy to employ when the cost of information is very high relative to its expected value. Compare Motivated tactician
Motivated tactician
The term "motivated tacticians" is used in social psychology to describe a human shifting from quick and dirty cognitively economical tactics to more thoughtful, thorough strategies when processing information depending on their type and degree of motivation...
.
This is a commonly recognized decision making technique used in everyday life. Other methods include:
- listing advantages and disadvantages of each option (an informal form of decision matrixDecision MatrixA decision matrix is a list of values in rows and columns that allows an ologist to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information. Elements of a decision matrix show decisions based on certain decision criteria...
); - coin flippingCoin flippingCoin flipping or coin tossing or heads or tails is the practice of throwing a coin in the air to choose between two alternatives, sometimes to resolve a dispute between two parties...
, cutting a deck of playing cards, finding a quotation in a holy bookBibliomancyBibliomancy is the use of books in divination. The method of employing sacred books for 'magical medicine', for removing negative entities, or for divination is widespread in many religions of the world:-Terminology:...
, consulting the Magic 8-ballMagic 8-ballThe Magic 8 Ball is a toy used for fortune-telling or seeking advice, manufactured by Mattel.-Origin:While Magic 8-Ball did not exist in its current form until 1950, the functional component was invented by Albert C. Carter, who was inspired by a "spirit writing" device used by his mother, Mary, a...
, rolling a die, and other random or coincidence methods; - accepting the first option that seems like it might achieve the desired result
- astrologyAstrologyAstrology consists of a number of belief systems which hold that there is a relationship between astronomical phenomena and events in the human world...
, augury, fortune cookiesFortune CookiesFortune Cookies is the second album by Alana Davis, released in 2001. It peaked at #34 on Billboard's Heatseekers Album chart at the time of its release.-Track listing:...
, prayerPrayerPrayer is a form of religious practice that seeks to activate a volitional rapport to a deity through deliberate practice. Prayer may be either individual or communal and take place in public or in private. It may involve the use of words or song. When language is used, prayer may take the form of...
, tarot cards, revelationRevelationIn religion and theology, revelation is the revealing or disclosing, through active or passive communication with a supernatural or a divine entity...
, Methods of divinationMethods of divinationInnumerable methods of divination can be found around the world, and many cultures practice the same methods under different names. During the Middle Ages, scholars coined terms for many of these methods — some of which had hitherto been unnamed — in Medieval Latin, very often utilizing the suffix...
or other forms of divinationDivinationDivination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual...
or oracular deviceOracleIn Classical Antiquity, an oracle was a person or agency considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic predictions or precognition of the future, inspired by the gods. As such it is a form of divination....
.
Similar concepts
- Alternatively, diceDiceA die is a small throwable object with multiple resting positions, used for generating random numbers...
or another random generator may be used for decision makingDecision makingDecision making can be regarded as the mental processes resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.- Overview :Human performance in decision terms...
. - In game theoryGame theoryGame theory is a mathematical method for analyzing calculated circumstances, such as in games, where a person’s success is based upon the choices of others...
, negotiations, nuclear deterrence, diplomacyDiplomacyDiplomacy is the art and practice of conducting negotiations between representatives of groups or states...
and other Conflict theoryConflict resolutionConflict resolution is conceptualized as the methods and processes involved in facilitating the peaceful ending of some social conflict. Often, committed group members attempt to resolve group conflicts by actively communicating information about their conflicting motives or ideologies to the rest...
– rationalityRationalityIn philosophy, rationality is the exercise of reason. It is the manner in which people derive conclusions when considering things deliberately. It also refers to the conformity of one's beliefs with one's reasons for belief, or with one's actions with one's reasons for action...
, realpolitikRealpolitikRealpolitik refers to politics or diplomacy based primarily on power and on practical and material factors and considerations, rather than ideological notions or moralistic or ethical premises...
or realism can themselves limit strategies and results. They can limit the ability of a player to make demands or get its own way through bluff, bully, instill fearFearFear is a distressing negative sensation induced by a perceived threat. It is a basic survival mechanism occurring in response to a specific stimulus, such as pain or the threat of danger...
, cause apprehension, or psychologically manipulatePsychological manipulationPsychological manipulation is a type of social influence that aims to change the perception or behavior of others through underhanded, deceptive, or even abusive tactics. By advancing the interests of the manipulator, often at the other's expense, such methods could be considered exploitative,...
or send a heeded warning—and therefore can increase the likelihood that an opposing party may engage in objectionable or unwelcome behavior. If one knows the lines and can predict the response, than predictabilityPredictabilityPredictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively.-Predictability and Causality:...
and proportionalityProportionalityProportionality may refer to:*Proportionality , the relationship of two variables whose ratio is constant*Proportionality , A legal principle under municipal law in which the punishment of a certain crime should be in proportion to the severity of the crime itself, and under international law an...
become a restraintRestraintRestraint may refer to:* A personal virtue. See self control.* Physical restraint, the practice of rendering people helpless or keeping them in captivity by means such as handcuffs, ropes, straps, etc....
, not a virtue. Consequently, 'taunting a junkyard dog is OK, if you know you are beyond the reach of its tetherTetherA tether is a cord, fixture, or signal that anchors something movable to a reference point which may be fixed or moving. There are a number of applications for tethers: balloons, kites, tethered wind-energy conversion systems, anchors, tethered water-flow energy conversion systems, towing, animal...
.' Thus irrationality (real or perceived) can be an important countervailing tool or strategy, particularly as a deterrent and if it engenders hesitation, fear, negotiation and resolution, or change of course. On the other hand, alternate strategies such as honestyHonestyHonesty refers to a facet of moral character and denotes positive, virtuous attributes such as integrity, truthfulness, and straightforwardness along with the absence of lying, cheating, or theft....
, building a climate of trust, respectRespectRespect denotes both a positive feeling of esteem for a person or other entity , and also specific actions and conduct representative of that esteem. Respect can be a specific feeling of regard for the actual qualities of the one respected...
, using intermediaries, mediationMediationMediation, as used in law, is a form of alternative dispute resolution , a way of resolving disputes between two or more parties. A third party, the mediator, assists the parties to negotiate their own settlement...
or other forms of conflict resolutionConflict resolutionConflict resolution is conceptualized as the methods and processes involved in facilitating the peaceful ending of some social conflict. Often, committed group members attempt to resolve group conflicts by actively communicating information about their conflicting motives or ideologies to the rest...
, sanctions, patiencePatiencePatience is the state of endurance under difficult circumstances, which can mean persevering in the face of delay or provocation without acting on annoyance/anger in a negative way; or exhibiting forbearance when under strain, especially when faced with longer-term difficulties. Patience is the...
, process and reasoning might still be available, as might strategies like so-called Win/win bargainingBargainingBargaining or haggling is a type of negotiation in which the buyer and seller of a good or service dispute the price which will be paid and the exact nature of the transaction that will take place, and eventually come to an agreement. Bargaining is an alternative pricing strategy to fixed prices...
(also called "interest-based" bargaining) – which tries to reach an accord based on interests, not necessarily on positionsPositionsPositions is a book by French philosopher Jacques Derrida, published in 1972. It consist of a collection of interviews. Derrida talks about his earlier works and their relationships. He said that his 1962 essay, Edmund Husserl's Origin of Geometry: An Introduction, already contained many elements...
, power, rightsRightsRights are legal, social, or ethical principles of freedom or entitlement; that is, rights are the fundamental normative rules about what is allowed of people or owed to people, according to some legal system, social convention, or ethical theory...
or distributionDistribution (economics)Distribution in economics refers to the way total output, income, or wealth is distributed among individuals or among the factors of production .. In general theory and the national income and product accounts, each unit of output corresponds to a unit of income...
.
In popular culture
- A record company named Flippist Records in Minneapolis, MNMinnesotaMinnesota is a U.S. state located in the Midwestern United States. The twelfth largest state of the U.S., it is the twenty-first most populous, with 5.3 million residents. Minnesota was carved out of the eastern half of the Minnesota Territory and admitted to the Union as the thirty-second state...
. - The story Flip Decision has been a subject of a linguisticLinguisticsLinguistics is the scientific study of human language. Linguistics can be broadly broken into three categories or subfields of study: language form, language meaning, and language in context....
research about translations from EnglishEnglish languageEnglish is a West Germanic language that arose in the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms of England and spread into what was to become south-east Scotland under the influence of the Anglian medieval kingdom of Northumbria...
to FinnishFinnish languageFinnish is the language spoken by the majority of the population in Finland Primarily for use by restaurant menus and by ethnic Finns outside Finland. It is one of the two official languages of Finland and an official minority language in Sweden. In Sweden, both standard Finnish and Meänkieli, a...
, and from English to the HelsinkiHelsinkiHelsinki is the capital and largest city in Finland. It is in the region of Uusimaa, located in southern Finland, on the shore of the Gulf of Finland, an arm of the Baltic Sea. The population of the city of Helsinki is , making it by far the most populous municipality in Finland. Helsinki is...
dialectDialectThe term dialect is used in two distinct ways, even by linguists. One usage refers to a variety of a language that is a characteristic of a particular group of the language's speakers. The term is applied most often to regional speech patterns, but a dialect may also be defined by other factors,...
. - Danish poet and scientist Piet HeinPiet Hein (Denmark)Piet Hein was a Danish scientist, mathematician, inventor, designer, author, and poet, often writing under the Old Norse pseudonym "Kumbel" meaning "tombstone"...
once wrote a poem—entitled A Psychological Tip describing the advantages of coin flipping in decision making. - Some of the notable characters in fiction who practice flippism (to varying degrees) include:
- The main character in the book The Dice ManThe Dice ManThe Dice Man is a novel published in 1971 by George Cockcroft under the pen name Luke Rhinehart and tells the story of a psychiatrist who begins making life decisions based on the casting of dice. Cockcroft wrote the book based on his own experiences of using dice to make decisions while studying...
by Luke Rhinehart (a.k.a author George Cockcroft) and later novels The Search for the Dice ManThe Search for the Dice ManThe Search for the Dice Man was written by George Cockcroft under the pen name Luke Rhinehart. It is the official sequel to The Dice Man, and was published in 1993....
, Adventures of WimAdventures of WimAdventures of Wim or Whim is a book by George Cockcroft, written under the pen name Luke Rhinehart. It was published in 1986, and was sold as "The sequel, well almost, to The Dice Man". This version is no longer in print...
and The Book of the Die. - Jake Nyman, the protagonist of the film American PerfektAmerican PerfektAmerican Perfekt is a 1997 road movie/thriller/drama film written and directed by Paul Chart, produced by Irvin Kershner. It was screened in the Un Certain Regard section at the 1997 Cannes Film Festival.-Plot:...
. - The main antagonist, Anton ChigurhAnton ChigurhAnton Chigurh is the main antagonist of the Cormac McCarthy novel No Country for Old Men and the film of the same name. He is portrayed by Javier Bardem in the film.- Background :...
, in the novel No Country for Old MenNo Country for Old MenNo Country for Old Men is a 2005 novel by U.S. author Cormac McCarthy. Set along the United States–Mexico border in 1980, the story concerns an illicit drug deal gone wrong in a remote desert location. The title comes from the poem "Sailing to Byzantium" by William Butler Yeats...
and the filmNo Country for Old Men (film)No Country for Old Men is a 2007 American crime thriller directed by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, and starring Tommy Lee Jones, Javier Bardem, and Josh Brolin. The film was adapted from the Cormac McCarthy novel of the same name...
. - The BatmanBatmanBatman is a fictional character created by the artist Bob Kane and writer Bill Finger. A comic book superhero, Batman first appeared in Detective Comics #27 , and since then has appeared primarily in publications by DC Comics...
villain Harvey Dent (a.k.a Two-FaceTwo-FaceTwo-Face is a fictional comic book supervillain who appears in comic books published by DC Comics. and is an enemy of Batman. The character first appeared in Detective Comics #66 , and was created by Bob Kane and Bill Finger....
). - Leela from the FuturamaFuturamaFuturama is an American animated science fiction sitcom created by Matt Groening and developed by Groening and David X. Cohen for the Fox Broadcasting Company. The series follows the adventures of a late 20th-century New York City pizza delivery boy, Philip J...
series.
- The main character in the book The Dice Man