Hubbert curve
Encyclopedia
The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geophysicist M. King Hubbert
's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company
. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory
, which has led to the rise of peak oil
concerns.
Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which accurately predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.
The prototypical Hubbert curve is a probability density function
of a logistic distribution curve. It is not a gaussian function (which is used to plot normal distributions), but the two have a similar appearance. The density of a Hubbert curve approaches zero more slowly than a gaussian function:
The graph of a Hubbert curve consists of three key elements:
The actual shape of a graph of real world production trends is determined by various factors, such as development of enhanced production techniques, availability of competing resources, and government regulations on production or consumption. Because of such factors, real world Hubbert curves are often not symmetrical.
(Hubbert's attempt in the late 1970's resulted in an inaccurate prediction that natural gas production would fall dramatically in the 1980's), Coal
, fissionable materials
, Helium, transition metals (such as copper
), and water
. At least one researcher has attempted to create a Hubbert curve for the whaling
industry and caviar, while another applied it to cod
.
M. King Hubbert
Marion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company
Shell Oil Company
Shell Oil Company is the United States-based subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell, a multinational oil company of Anglo Dutch origins, which is amongst the largest oil companies in the world. Approximately 22,000 Shell employees are based in the U.S. The head office in the U.S. is in Houston, Texas...
. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory
Hubbert peak theory
The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
, which has led to the rise of peak oil
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
concerns.
Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which accurately predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.
Shape
Probability density function
In probability theory, a probability density function , or density of a continuous random variable is a function that describes the relative likelihood for this random variable to occur at a given point. The probability for the random variable to fall within a particular region is given by the...
of a logistic distribution curve. It is not a gaussian function (which is used to plot normal distributions), but the two have a similar appearance. The density of a Hubbert curve approaches zero more slowly than a gaussian function:
The graph of a Hubbert curve consists of three key elements:
- a gradual rise from zero resource production that then increases quickly
- a "Hubbert peakHubbert peak theoryThe Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
", representing the maximum production level - a drop from the peak that then follows a steep production decline.
The actual shape of a graph of real world production trends is determined by various factors, such as development of enhanced production techniques, availability of competing resources, and government regulations on production or consumption. Because of such factors, real world Hubbert curves are often not symmetrical.
Peak oil
Using the curve, Hubbert modeled the rate of petroleum production for several regions, determined by the rate of new oil well discovery, and extrapolated a world production curve. The relative steepness of decline in this projection is the main concern in Peak oil discussions. This is because a steep drop in the production implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the world will not have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil, possibly leading to drastic social and economic impacts.Other resources
Hubbert models have been used to predict the production trends of various resources, such as natural gasPeak gas
Peak gas is the point in time at which the maximum global natural gas production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. It is a finite resource and thus considered...
(Hubbert's attempt in the late 1970's resulted in an inaccurate prediction that natural gas production would fall dramatically in the 1980's), Coal
Peak coal
Peak coal is the point in time at which the maximum global coal production rate is reached, after which, according to the theory, the rate of production will enter to a terminal decline. Coal is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years...
, fissionable materials
Peak uranium
Peak uranium is the point in time that the maximum global uranium production rate is reached. After that peak, the rate of production enters a terminal decline. While uranium is used in nuclear weapons, its primary use is for energy generation via nuclear fission of uranium-235 isotope in a nuclear...
, Helium, transition metals (such as copper
Peak copper
Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from within the earth will diminish, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. When this will occur is a...
), and water
Peak water
The term Peak Water has been put forward as a concept to help understand growing constraints on the availability, quality, and use of freshwater resources...
. At least one researcher has attempted to create a Hubbert curve for the whaling
Whaling
Whaling is the hunting of whales mainly for meat and oil. Its earliest forms date to at least 3000 BC. Various coastal communities have long histories of sustenance whaling and harvesting beached whales...
industry and caviar, while another applied it to cod
Cod
Cod is the common name for genus Gadus, belonging to the family Gadidae, and is also used in the common name for various other fishes. Cod is a popular food with a mild flavor, low fat content and a dense, flaky white flesh. Cod livers are processed to make cod liver oil, an important source of...
.
See also
- Association for the Study of Peak Oil and GasAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil and GasThe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO, is a network of scientists, affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities, whose goal is to attempt to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource...
(ASPO) - BioeconomicsBioeconomicsBioeconomics is closely related to the early development of theories in fisheries economics, initially in the mid 1950s by Canadian economists Scott Gordon and Anthony Scott...
- Energy AccountingEnergy accountingEnergy accounting is a system used within industry, where measuring and analyzing the energy consumption of different activities is done to improve energy efficiency.-Energy management:...
- ThermoeconomicsThermoeconomicsThermoeconomics, also referred to as biophysical economics, is a school of heterodox economics that applies the laws of thermodynamics to economic theory. The term "thermoeconomics" was coined in 1962 by American engineer Myron Tribus, and developed by the statistician and economist Nicholas...
External links
- The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses article by Jean LaherrèreJean LaherrèreJean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled . Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of...
. - Hubbert Math further mathematical manipulations by a Stanford professor
- M. King Hubbert Bibliography