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Hurricane Elida (2002)
Encyclopedia
Hurricane Elida was the first hurricane
of the 2002 Pacific hurricane season
to reach Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
. Forming on July 23 from a tropical wave, the storm rapidly intensified from a tropical depression into a Category 5 in two days and lasted for only six hours at that intensity before weakening. It was one of only fourteen known hurricanes in the East Pacific east of the International Date Line
to have reached such an intensity. Although heavy waves were able to reach the Mexican
coastline, no damages or casualties were reported in relation to the hurricane.
The hurricane moved westward due to a high pressure
ridge
while undergoing two eyewall replacement cycles
: the first was around peak intensity and was completed when the hurricane moved over cooler waters, and the second was a brief cycle shortly after the hurricane began to weaken. The last advisory was issued while the hurricane was west of Mexico, but it was not until the remnants were west of Los Angeles
, California
that they finally dissipated. Elida's rapid intensification and unsteady weakening after reaching its peak intensity caused large errors in the intensity forecasting of the hurricane. Although the intensity forecasts were off, the track forecasts were better than usual compared to the ten-year period prior to that year.
on July 13. The wave moved uneventfully through the Atlantic Ocean
and the Caribbean Sea
, emerging over the Pacific Ocean
on July 21. The wave began organizing the next day, becoming Tropical Depression Six-E on July 23 while 350 mi (563.3 km) south-southeast of Puerto Escondido
, Mexico
. The depression was predicted to move westward due to the presence of a ridge of high pressure
which was also controlling the movement of Hurricane Douglas. Due to low shear and warm ocean waters, it was predicted that the depression would reach hurricane strength in 48 hours. The depression began rapid intensification while moving westward, and only six hours after being recognized as a depression, the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Elida while displaying banding features and a central dense overcast
. The forecast was revised, now predicting the storm to attain hurricane strength the next day.
The storm continued to rapidly intensify and gradually developed a banding eye
feature and infrared
satellite images showed a possible eyewall in the central dense overcast. After six more hours, a small eye had formed and Elida was upgraded to a high-end Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
with 110 mi/h winds on July 24, only eighteen hours after having first been initiated as a 35 mi/h tropical depression. Elida continued to rapidly strengthen, breaking the Dvorak
estimates and reaching 135 mi/h six hours afterward, making it a Category 4 hurricane and resulting in a rare forecast for the hurricane to reach Category 5. The hurricane, moving at 16 mi/h, proceeded to make a west-northwestward turn while displaying an eye with an estimated diameter of 11 mi (17.7 km). On July 25, Elida reached the highest winds of a Category 4 at 155 mi/h, though the possibility that Elida was briefly a Category 5 just prior to the advisory issuance was indicated. Even though a later discussion mentioned that Elida had Category 5 status, it was not until the Tropical Cyclone Report that it was finally analyzed that Elida had Category 5 strength for only six hours. At this time, Elida was observed to have formed concentric eyewalls, but it was not until the hurricane moved over cooler waters that the eyewall replacement cycle
was completed.
Afterward, the hurricane began to weaken in an irregular fashion. After the inner eyewall dissolved, the intensity of the hurricane decreased to a low-level Category 3 with winds of 120 mi/h. By this time, Elida had reached the edge of the ridge that kept the cyclone from turning northwest, and a turn to the northwest was beginning. The hurricane proceeded to undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, lowering its intensity to Category 2. Late on July 26, the eye disappeared from satellite. The weakening trend continued, and Elida weakened to a tropical storm on July 27. At this time, a weakness in the subtropical ridge
allowed the storm to make a turn towards the north. Early on July 28, Elida began redeveloping, regaining moderate convection and possibly reintensifying, but eventually, the storm weakened back into a depression early on July 29, and the last advisory was issued while an area of convection was north of the center with 12 feet (3.7 m) seas in the area. The center was 805 mi (1,295.5 km) from Punta Eugenia, Mexico when the last advisory was issued. The remnant low from Elida moved northeast and eventually dissipated 535 mi (861 km) west of Los Angeles
, California
.
mentioned the likeliness that Elida caused swells and waves to hit the Mexican shore, but no reports of damage or casualties linked to Elida were ever received and no land advisories were ever needed for the hurricane. The only report anywhere near the storm came from the "New Century 1" vehicle carrier ship (call sign "H9LA"), which was 230 mi (370.1 km) from the center of the hurricane. The ship reported winds of 40 mi/h and a pressure of 1008.5.
While the track errors associated with forecasting the hurricane were lower than the errors in the period between 1992 and 2001, Elida's intensity proved to be hard to predict, leading to large errors in NHC forecasts. The errors in the forecast period except for the 72 hour period were worse than the long-term average. The large errors in intensity forecasts were blamed on the rapid intensification of the hurricane to 160 mi/h winds and the unsteady weakening after reaching peak intensity.
When the MERIS
sensor aboard the European Space Agency
's satellite Envisat
observed and recorded Hurricane Elida at peak intensity, it was the first time that the sensor had observed a hurricane. The sensor was originally designed primarily for recording oceanic biology and water quality as well as land vegetation, clouds, and water vapor.
Tropical cyclone
A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor...
of the 2002 Pacific hurricane season
2002 Pacific hurricane season
The 2002 Pacific hurricane season was an event in tropical cyclone meteorology. The most notable storm that year was Hurricane Kenna, which reached Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall near Puerto Vallarta, in the Mexican state of Jalisco, on October 25...
to reach Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale , or the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale , classifies hurricanes — Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms — into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds...
. Forming on July 23 from a tropical wave, the storm rapidly intensified from a tropical depression into a Category 5 in two days and lasted for only six hours at that intensity before weakening. It was one of only fourteen known hurricanes in the East Pacific east of the International Date Line
International Date Line
The International Date Line is a generally north-south imaginary line on the surface of the Earth, passing through the middle of the Pacific Ocean, that designates the place where each calendar day begins...
to have reached such an intensity. Although heavy waves were able to reach the Mexican
Mexico
The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...
coastline, no damages or casualties were reported in relation to the hurricane.
The hurricane moved westward due to a high pressure
High pressure
High pressure in science and engineering is studying the effects of high pressure on materials and the design and construction of devices, such as a diamond anvil cell, which can create high pressure...
ridge
Ridge (meteorology)
A ridge is an elongated region of relatively high atmospheric pressure, the opposite of a trough....
while undergoing two eyewall replacement cycles
Eye (cyclone)
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather found at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area and typically 30–65 km in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the second most severe weather of a cyclone...
: the first was around peak intensity and was completed when the hurricane moved over cooler waters, and the second was a brief cycle shortly after the hurricane began to weaken. The last advisory was issued while the hurricane was west of Mexico, but it was not until the remnants were west of Los Angeles
Los Ángeles
Los Ángeles is the capital of the province of Biobío, in the commune of the same name, in Region VIII , in the center-south of Chile. It is located between the Laja and Biobío rivers. The population is 123,445 inhabitants...
, California
California
California is a state located on the West Coast of the United States. It is by far the most populous U.S. state, and the third-largest by land area...
that they finally dissipated. Elida's rapid intensification and unsteady weakening after reaching its peak intensity caused large errors in the intensity forecasting of the hurricane. Although the intensity forecasts were off, the track forecasts were better than usual compared to the ten-year period prior to that year.
Meteorological history
Elida formed from a tropical wave that left the coast of AfricaAfrica
Africa is the world's second largest and second most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.2 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area...
on July 13. The wave moved uneventfully through the Atlantic Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's oceanic divisions. With a total area of about , it covers approximately 20% of the Earth's surface and about 26% of its water surface area...
and the Caribbean Sea
Caribbean Sea
The Caribbean Sea is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean located in the tropics of the Western hemisphere. It is bounded by Mexico and Central America to the west and southwest, to the north by the Greater Antilles, and to the east by the Lesser Antilles....
, emerging over the Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean
The Pacific Ocean is the largest of the Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic in the north to the Southern Ocean in the south, bounded by Asia and Australia in the west, and the Americas in the east.At 165.2 million square kilometres in area, this largest division of the World...
on July 21. The wave began organizing the next day, becoming Tropical Depression Six-E on July 23 while 350 mi (563.3 km) south-southeast of Puerto Escondido
Puerto Escondido
Puerto Escondido is a small port and tourist center in the municipality of San Pedro Mixtepec Distrito 22 in the Mexican state of Oaxaca. Prior to the 1930s, no real town existed. The bay had been used as a port intermittently to ship coffee, but there was no permanent settlement due to the lack...
, Mexico
Mexico
The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...
. The depression was predicted to move westward due to the presence of a ridge of high pressure
Ridge (meteorology)
A ridge is an elongated region of relatively high atmospheric pressure, the opposite of a trough....
which was also controlling the movement of Hurricane Douglas. Due to low shear and warm ocean waters, it was predicted that the depression would reach hurricane strength in 48 hours. The depression began rapid intensification while moving westward, and only six hours after being recognized as a depression, the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Elida while displaying banding features and a central dense overcast
Eye (cyclone)
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather found at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area and typically 30–65 km in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the second most severe weather of a cyclone...
. The forecast was revised, now predicting the storm to attain hurricane strength the next day.
The storm continued to rapidly intensify and gradually developed a banding eye
Eye (cyclone)
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather found at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area and typically 30–65 km in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the second most severe weather of a cyclone...
feature and infrared
Infrared
Infrared light is electromagnetic radiation with a wavelength longer than that of visible light, measured from the nominal edge of visible red light at 0.74 micrometres , and extending conventionally to 300 µm...
satellite images showed a possible eyewall in the central dense overcast. After six more hours, a small eye had formed and Elida was upgraded to a high-end Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale , or the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale , classifies hurricanes — Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms — into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds...
with 110 mi/h winds on July 24, only eighteen hours after having first been initiated as a 35 mi/h tropical depression. Elida continued to rapidly strengthen, breaking the Dvorak
Dvorak technique
The Dvorak technique is a widely used system to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite images. Several agencies issue Dvorak intensity numbers for cyclones of sufficient intensity...
estimates and reaching 135 mi/h six hours afterward, making it a Category 4 hurricane and resulting in a rare forecast for the hurricane to reach Category 5. The hurricane, moving at 16 mi/h, proceeded to make a west-northwestward turn while displaying an eye with an estimated diameter of 11 mi (17.7 km). On July 25, Elida reached the highest winds of a Category 4 at 155 mi/h, though the possibility that Elida was briefly a Category 5 just prior to the advisory issuance was indicated. Even though a later discussion mentioned that Elida had Category 5 status, it was not until the Tropical Cyclone Report that it was finally analyzed that Elida had Category 5 strength for only six hours. At this time, Elida was observed to have formed concentric eyewalls, but it was not until the hurricane moved over cooler waters that the eyewall replacement cycle
Eye (cyclone)
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather found at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area and typically 30–65 km in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the second most severe weather of a cyclone...
was completed.
Subtropical ridge
The subtropical ridge is a significant belt of high pressure situated around the latitudes of 30°N in the Northern Hemisphere and 30°S in the Southern Hemisphere. It is characterized by mostly calm winds, which acts to reduce air quality under its axis by causing fog overnight, and haze during...
allowed the storm to make a turn towards the north. Early on July 28, Elida began redeveloping, regaining moderate convection and possibly reintensifying, but eventually, the storm weakened back into a depression early on July 29, and the last advisory was issued while an area of convection was north of the center with 12 feet (3.7 m) seas in the area. The center was 805 mi (1,295.5 km) from Punta Eugenia, Mexico when the last advisory was issued. The remnant low from Elida moved northeast and eventually dissipated 535 mi (861 km) west of Los Angeles
Los Ángeles
Los Ángeles is the capital of the province of Biobío, in the commune of the same name, in Region VIII , in the center-south of Chile. It is located between the Laja and Biobío rivers. The population is 123,445 inhabitants...
, California
California
California is a state located on the West Coast of the United States. It is by far the most populous U.S. state, and the third-largest by land area...
.
Impact
Although the winds and rains associated with the storm remained far offshore, the Tropical Cyclone Report issued by the National Hurricane CenterNational Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...
mentioned the likeliness that Elida caused swells and waves to hit the Mexican shore, but no reports of damage or casualties linked to Elida were ever received and no land advisories were ever needed for the hurricane. The only report anywhere near the storm came from the "New Century 1" vehicle carrier ship (call sign "H9LA"), which was 230 mi (370.1 km) from the center of the hurricane. The ship reported winds of 40 mi/h and a pressure of 1008.5.
While the track errors associated with forecasting the hurricane were lower than the errors in the period between 1992 and 2001, Elida's intensity proved to be hard to predict, leading to large errors in NHC forecasts. The errors in the forecast period except for the 72 hour period were worse than the long-term average. The large errors in intensity forecasts were blamed on the rapid intensification of the hurricane to 160 mi/h winds and the unsteady weakening after reaching peak intensity.
When the MERIS
MERIS
MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer is one of the main instruments on board the European Space Agency 's Envisat platform.This instrument is composed of five cameras disposed side by side, each equipped with a pushbroom spectrometer. These spectrometers use two-dimensional CCDs...
sensor aboard the European Space Agency
European Space Agency
The European Space Agency , established in 1975, is an intergovernmental organisation dedicated to the exploration of space, currently with 18 member states...
's satellite Envisat
Envisat
Envisat is an Earth-observing satellite. It was launched on 1 March 2002 aboard an Ariane 5 from the Guyana Space Centre in Kourou, French Guyana into a Sun synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of...
observed and recorded Hurricane Elida at peak intensity, it was the first time that the sensor had observed a hurricane. The sensor was originally designed primarily for recording oceanic biology and water quality as well as land vegetation, clouds, and water vapor.
See also
- List of Pacific hurricanes
- List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes