Market trends
Encyclopedia
Financial market
In economics, a financial market is a mechanism that allows people and entities to buy and sell financial securities , commodities , and other fungible items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect supply and demand.Both general markets and...
to move in a particular direction over time. These trends are classified as secular for long time frames, primary for medium time frames, and secondary for short time frames. Traders identify market trends using technical analysis
Technical analysis
In finance, technical analysis is security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis incorporate technical analysis, which being an aspect of active management stands...
, a framework which characterizes market trends as a predictable price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time.
The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.
Secular market trend
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.In a secular bull market the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward-moving. The United States stock market was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.
In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward-moving. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold
Gold
Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au and an atomic number of 79. Gold is a dense, soft, shiny, malleable and ductile metal. Pure gold has a bright yellow color and luster traditionally considered attractive, which it maintains without oxidizing in air or water. Chemically, gold is a...
during the period between January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom
Brown Bottom
The sale of UK gold reserves was a policy pursued by HM Treasury over the period between 1999 and 2002, when gold prices were at their lowest in 20 years, following an extended bear market...
. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g), and became part of the Great Commodities Depression.
Secondary market trend
Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction within a primary trend. The duration is a few weeks or a few months.One type of secondary market trend is called a market correction. A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so. A correction is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post).
Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally
Rally (stock market)
A rally is a period of sustained increases in the prices of stocks, bonds or indexes. This type of price movement can happen during either a bull or a bear market, when it is known as either a bull market rally or a bear market rally, respectively...
(sometimes called "sucker's rally" or "dead cat bounce") which consist of a market price increase of only 10% or 20% and then the prevailing, bear market trend resumes. Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , also called the Industrial Average, the Dow Jones, the Dow 30, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index, and one of several indices created by Wall Street Journal editor and Dow Jones & Company co-founder Charles Dow...
index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
ese Nikkei 225
Nikkei 225
The , more commonly called the Nikkei, the Nikkei index, or the Nikkei Stock Average , is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange . It has been calculated daily by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper since 1950. It is a price-weighted average , and the components are reviewed once a year...
has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.
Primary market trend
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market (most sectors) and lasts for a year or more.Bull market
A bull market is associated with increasing investor confidence, and increased investing in anticipation of future price increases (capital gainCapital gain
A capital gain is a profit that results from investments into a capital asset, such as stocks, bonds or real estate, which exceeds the purchase price. It is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price, resulting in a financial gain for the investor...
s). A bullish trend in the stock market often begins before the general economy shows clear signs of recovery.
Examples
India's Bombay Stock ExchangeBombay Stock Exchange
The Bombay Stock Exchange is a stock exchange located on Dalal Street, Mumbai and is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. The equity market capitalization of the companies listed on the BSE was 1.63 trillion as of December 2010, making it the 4th largest stock exchange in Asia and the 8th largest...
Index, SENSEX, was in a bull market trend for about five years from April 2003 to January 2008 as it increased from 2,900 points to 21,000 points. A notable bull market was in the 1990s and most of the 1980s when the U.S. and many other stock markets rose; the end of this time period sees the dot-com bubble
Dot-com bubble
The dot-com bubble was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2000 during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the more...
.
Bear market
A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time. It is a transition from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. According to The Vanguard GroupThe Vanguard Group
The Vanguard Group is an American investment management company based in Malvern, Pennsylvania, that manages approximately $1.6 trillion in assets. It offers mutual funds and other financial products and services to individual and institutional investors in the United States and abroad. Founder...
, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period." It is sometimes referred to as "The Heifer Market" due to the paradox with the above subject.
Examples
A bear market followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929Wall Street Crash of 1929
The Wall Street Crash of 1929 , also known as the Great Crash, and the Stock Market Crash of 1929, was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its fallout...
and erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , also called the Industrial Average, the Dow Jones, the Dow 30, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index, and one of several indices created by Wall Street Journal editor and Dow Jones & Company co-founder Charles Dow...
's market capitalization by July 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half. Another long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the 1970s energy crisis
1970s energy crisis
The 1970s energy crisis was a period in which the major industrial countries of the world, particularly the United States, faced substantial shortages, both perceived and real, of petroleum...
and the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Yet another bear market occurred between March 2000 and October 2002. The most recent examples occurred between October 2007 and March 2009.
Market top
A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time (usually a few years). It is retroactively defined as market participants are not aware of it as it happens.A decline then follows, usually gradually at first and later with more rapidity.
William J. O'Neil and company report that since the 1950s a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major market index occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.
Examples
The peak of the dot-com bubbleDot-com bubble
The dot-com bubble was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2000 during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the more...
(as measured by the NASDAQ-100
NASDAQ-100
The NASDAQ-100 is a stock market index of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. The companies' weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations, with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components...
) occurred on March 24, 2000. The index closed at 4,704.73 and has not since returned to that level. The Nasdaq peaked at 5,132.50 and the S&P 500 at 1525.20.
A recent peak for the broad U.S. market was October 9, 2007. The S&P 500
S&P 500
The S&P 500 is a free-float capitalization-weighted index published since 1957 of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. The stocks included in the S&P 500 are those of large publicly held companies that trade on either of the two largest American stock...
index closed at 1,576 and the Nasdaq at 2861.50.
Market bottom
A market bottom is a trend reversal, the end of a market downturn, and precedes the beginning of an upward moving trend (bull market).It is very difficult to identify a bottom (referred to by investors as "bottom picking") while it is occurring. The upturn following a decline is often short-lived and prices might resume their decline. This would bring a loss for the investor who purchased stock(s) during a misperceived or "false" market bottom.
Baron Rothschild
Baron Rothschild
Baron Rothschild, of Tring in the County of Hertford, is a title in the Peerage of the United Kingdom. It was created in 1885 for Sir Nathan Rothschild, 2nd Baronet, a member of the Rothschild banking family. He was the first person of the Jewish faith to be raised to the peerage...
is said to have advised that the best time to buy is when there is "blood in the streets", i.e., when the markets have fallen drastically and investor sentiment is extremely negative.
Examples
Some examples of market bottoms, in terms of the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) include:- The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a bottom at 1738.74 on 19 October 1987, as a result of the decline from 2722.41 on 25 August 1987. This day was called Black Monday (chart).
- A bottom of 7286.27 was reached on the DJIA on 9 October 2002 as a result of the decline from 11722.98 on 14 January 2000. This included an intermediate bottom of 8235.81 on 21 September 2001 (a 14% change from 10 September) which led to an intermediate top of 10635.25 on 19 March 2002 (chart). The "tech-heavy" Nasdaq fell a more precipitous 79% from its 5132 peak (10 March 2000) to its 1108 bottom (10 October 2002).
- A bottom of 6,440.08 (DJIA) on 9 March 2009 was reached after a decline associated with the subprime mortgage crisisSubprime mortgage crisisThe U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was one of the first indicators of the late-2000s financial crisis, characterized by a rise in subprime mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and the resulting decline of securities backed by said mortgages....
starting at 14164.41 on 9 October 2007 (chart).
Investor sentiment
Investor sentiment is a contrarianContrarian
In finance, a contrarian is one who attempts to profit by investing in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion appears to be wrong....
stock market indicator.
By definition, the market balances buyers and sellers, so it's impossible to literally have 'more buyers than sellers' or vice versa, although that is a common expression. The market comprises investors and traders. The investors may own a stock for many years; traders put on a position for several weeks down to seconds.
Generally, the investors follow a buy-low, sell-high strategy. Traders attempt to "fade" the investors' actions (buy when they are selling, sell when they are buying). A surge in demand from investors lifts the traders' asks, while a surge in supply hits the traders' bids.
When a high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some analysts consider it to be a strong signal that a market bottom may be near. The predictive capability of such a signal (see also market sentiment
Market sentiment
Market sentiment is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events.For...
) is thought to be highest when investor sentiment reaches extreme values. Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include:
- Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index: If the Bull-Bear spread (% of Bulls - % of Bears) is close to a historic low, it may signal a bottom. Typically, the number of bears surveyed would exceed the number of bulls. However, if the number of bulls is at an extreme high and the number of bears is at an extreme low, historically, a market top may have occurred or is close to occurring. This contrarian measure is more reliable for its coincidental timing at market lows than tops.
- American Association of Individual InvestorsAmerican Association of Individual InvestorsThe American Association of Individual Investors is a nonprofit organization with about 150,000 members whose purpose is to educate individual investors regarding stock market portolios, financial planning, and retirement accounts...
(AAII) sentiment indicator: Many feel that the majority of the decline has already occurred once this indicator gives a reading of minus 15% or below. - Other sentiment indicators include the Nova-Ursa ratio, the Short Interest/Total Market Float, and the Put/Call ratioPut/call ratioPut/call ratio is a technical indicator demonstrating investors' sentiment. The ratio represents a proportion between all the put options and all the call options purchased on any given day. The put/call ratio can be calculated for any individual stock, as well as for any index, or can be aggregated...
.
Changes with consumer behavior
Market trends are fluctuated on the demographics and technology. In a macro economical view, the current state of consumer trust in spending will vary the circulation of currency. In a micro economical view, demographics within a market will change the advancement of businesses and companies. With the introduction of the internet, consumers have access to different vendors as well as substitute products and services changing the direction of which a market will go.Despite that, it is believed that market trends follow one direction over a matter of time, there are many different factors that can change this idea. Technology s-curves as is explained in the book The Innovator's Dilemma. It states that technology will start slow then increase in users once better understood, eventually leveling off once another technology replaces it. This proves that change in the market is actually consistent.
Etymology
The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" are obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market". In French "bulle spéculative" refers to a speculative market bubble. The Online Etymology Dictionary relates the word "bull" to "inflate, swell", and dates its stock market connotation to 1714.The fighting styles of both animals may have a major impact on the names. When a bull fights it swipes its horns up; when a bear fights it swipes down on its opponents with its paws. When the market is going up, it is similar to a bull swiping up with its horns. When the market is going down it is similar to a bear swinging its paws down.
One hypothetical etymology
Etymology
Etymology is the study of the history of words, their origins, and how their form and meaning have changed over time.For languages with a long written history, etymologists make use of texts in these languages and texts about the languages to gather knowledge about how words were used during...
points to London
London
London is the capital city of :England and the :United Kingdom, the largest metropolitan area in the United Kingdom, and the largest urban zone in the European Union by most measures. Located on the River Thames, London has been a major settlement for two millennia, its history going back to its...
bear
Bear
Bears are mammals of the family Ursidae. Bears are classified as caniforms, or doglike carnivorans, with the pinnipeds being their closest living relatives. Although there are only eight living species of bear, they are widespread, appearing in a wide variety of habitats throughout the Northern...
skin "jobbers" (market maker
Market maker
A market maker is a company, or an individual, that quotes both a buy and a sell price in a financial instrument or commodity held in inventory, hoping to make a profit on the bid-offer spread, or turn. From a market microstructure theory standpoint, market makers are net sellers of an option to be...
s), who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb
Proverb
A proverb is a simple and concrete saying popularly known and repeated, which expresses a truth, based on common sense or the practical experience of humanity. They are often metaphorical. A proverb that describes a basic rule of conduct may also be known as a maxim...
ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism. By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling
Short selling
In finance, short selling is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party...
; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.
Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or contract. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. However in a falling market, the counterparties—the "bearers" of the commodity to be delivered—win because they have locked in a future delivery price that is higher than the current price.
Some analogies that have been used as mnemonic
Mnemonic
A mnemonic , or mnemonic device, is any learning technique that aids memory. To improve long term memory, mnemonic systems are used to make memorization easier. Commonly encountered mnemonics are often verbal, such as a very short poem or a special word used to help a person remember something,...
devices:
- Bull is short for 'bully', in its now mostly obsolete meaning of 'excellent'.
- It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are thought of as lazy and cautious movers —a misconception because a bear, under the right conditions, can outrun a horse.
- They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the BaringsBarings BankBarings Bank was the oldest merchant bank in London until its collapse in 1995 after one of the bank's employees, Nick Leeson, lost £827 million due to speculative investing, primarily in futures contracts, at the bank's Singapore office.-History:-1762–1890:Barings Bank was founded in 1762 as the...
and the Bulstrodes. - The word "bull" plays off the market's returns being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".
- "Bull" symbolizes charging ahead with excessive confidence whereas "bear" symbolizes preparing for winter and hibernation in doubt.
In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as the herd
Herd behavior
Herd behavior describes how individuals in a group can act together without planned direction. The term pertains to the behavior of animals in herds, flocks and schools, and to human conduct during activities such as stock market bubbles and crashes, street demonstrations, sporting events,...
. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run. Dow Theory
Dow Theory
The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation. The theory was derived from 255 Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow , journalist, founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow...
attempts to describe the character of these market movements.
International sculpture team Mark and Diane Weisbeck were chosen to re-design Wall Street's Bull Market. Their winning sculpture, the "Bull Market Rocket" was chosen as the modern, 21st century symbol of the up-trending Bull Market.
See also
- Black MondayBlack Monday (1987)In finance, Black Monday refers to Monday October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin...
- Bull-bear lineBull-bear lineBull-bear line is the index average line that indicates bull market or bear market in stock market. The 250-day moving average line of certain index for previous 250 trading days is treated to be the bull-bear line, which provides reference value for mid-term and long-term investment...
- Business cycleBusiness cycleThe term business cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years...
- Don't fight the tapeDon't fight the tapeDon't fight the tape is a term used in finance. It means do not bet or trade against the trend in the financial markets, e.g. if the broad market is moving up, do not bet on a downward move. The term tape here refers to the ticker tape used to transmit the price of stocks....
- October 27, 1997 mini-crashOctober 27, 1997 mini-crashThe October 27, 1997 mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The points loss that the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest point loss in its 114-year existence...
- September 11, 2001
- Stock market downturn of 2002Stock market downturn of 2002The stock market downturn of 2002 is the sharp drop in stock prices during 2002 in stock exchanges across the United States, Canada, Asia, and Europe...
- Trend followingTrend followingTrend following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of long-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. The strategy aims to work on the market trend mechanism and take benefit from both sides of the market, enjoying the profits from the ups and downs of the stock or...
- RecessionRecessionIn economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way...
- Economic expansionEconomic expansionAn economic expansion is an increase in the level of economic activity, and of the goods and services available in the market place. It is a period of economic growth as measured by a rise in real GDP.The explanation of such fluctuations in aggregate economic activity is one of the primary...
- Market sentimentMarket sentimentMarket sentiment is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events.For...
External links
- Market trend definition, explanations, and examples provided in simple terms
- Braze, David. What Is a Bear Market? The Motley Fool.
- Stock Market Dictionary