ORB survey of Iraq War casualties
Encyclopedia
On Friday, 14 September 2007, ORB (Opinion Research Business), an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. At over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580), this estimate is the highest number published so far. From the poll margin of error of +/-2.5% ORB calculated a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths. The ORB estimate was performed by a random survey of 1,720 adults aged 18+, out of which 1,499 responded, in fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq, between August 12 and August 19, 2007. In comparison, the 2006 Lancet survey suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths) through the end of June 2006. The Lancet authors calculated a range of 392,979 to 942,636 deaths.
On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken September 20 to 24, 2007. As a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.
ORB reports that it has been "tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005."
This ORB estimate has been strongly criticised as exaggerated and ill-founded in peer reviewed literature
The revised results were
Their pollster was Dr. Munqeth Daghir, founding director of IIACSS. ORB reports: "IIACSS (Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies) is a polling/ research company established in Iraq in 2003 and which has a network of interviewers covering all regions of the country. Further information about IIACSS and its founding director Dr. Munqith Dagher can be found within the relevant news article in the Newsroom section of ORB’s website."
ORB is a member of the British Polling Council
.
Epidemiologist Francisco Checci recently echoed these conclusions in a BBC interview, stating that he thinks the ORB estimate was "too high" and "implausible". Checci, like the paper above, says that a “major weakness” of the poll was a failure to adequately distinguish between households and extended family.
The Iraq Body Count project
also rejected what they called the "hugely exaggerated death toll figures" of ORB, citing the Survey Research Methods paper. IBC concluded that, "The pressing need is for more truth rooted in real experience, not the manipulation of numbers disconnected from reality."
The Media Lens article added:
The trotskyist World Socialist Website has also criticized the media for underreporting this survey. A week after its release, in the USA, only the Los Angeles Times
carried the story, of the leading newspapers, although NPR
did a piece on it the following Tuesday. In the UK, BBC TV reported it in 81 words at the end of a 34 second segment about a bombing in Baghdad on its flagship news magazine Newsnight
. On the BBC
website, it was described in 131 words tagged on at the end of an unrelated article with no mention of the study in the title. The only report in the UK press was in The Observer
where it was appended to a story on Alan Greenspan
's saying Iraq was about oil.
After the 2008 ORB update, it was reported in a UK newspaper The Guardian in March 2008.
On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken September 20 to 24, 2007. As a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.
ORB reports that it has been "tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005."
This ORB estimate has been strongly criticised as exaggerated and ill-founded in peer reviewed literature
Survey question and results
Participants of the ORB survey were asked the following question:
"How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof."
The revised results were
| Number of deaths in household |
Percent of responders |
|---|---|
| None | 72% |
| One | 14% |
| Two | 3% |
| Three | 1% |
| Four or more | "figure more than zero but less than 0.5%" |
| Don't know | 2% |
| No answer | 8% |
Causes of death
ORB reported that "48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance."Methodology
From the September 14, 2007 ORB press release concerning the first set of interviews:
- Results are based on face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 1,720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq (1,499 agreed to answer the question on household deaths)
- The standard margin of error on the sample who answered (1,499) is +2.5%
- The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. For security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included. Irbil was excluded as the authorities refused the field team a permit.
Their pollster was Dr. Munqeth Daghir, founding director of IIACSS. ORB reports: "IIACSS (Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies) is a polling/ research company established in Iraq in 2003 and which has a network of interviewers covering all regions of the country. Further information about IIACSS and its founding director Dr. Munqith Dagher can be found within the relevant news article in the Newsroom section of ORB’s website."
ORB is a member of the British Polling Council
British Polling Council
The British Polling Council is an association of market research companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom...
.
Estimated range of deaths
The 2005 census reported 4,050,597 households. From this ORB calculated 1,220,580 deaths since the 2003 invasion. From the poll margin of error of 2.5% ORB came up with a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths.January 2008 update: 1,033,000 deaths
Opinion Research Business published an update to the survey on 28 January 2008, based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.Criticism
The ORB poll estimate has come under strong criticism in a peer reviewed paper entitled "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate", published in the journal Survey Research Methods. This paper "describes in detail how the ORB poll is riddled with critical inconsistencies and methodological shortcomings", and concludes that the ORB poll is "too flawed, exaggerated and ill-founded to contribute to discussion of the human costs of the Iraq war".Epidemiologist Francisco Checci recently echoed these conclusions in a BBC interview, stating that he thinks the ORB estimate was "too high" and "implausible". Checci, like the paper above, says that a “major weakness” of the poll was a failure to adequately distinguish between households and extended family.
The Iraq Body Count project
Iraq Body Count project
Iraq Body Count project is a web-based effort to record civilian deaths resulting from the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq. Included are deaths attributable to coalition and insurgent military action, sectarian violence and criminal violence, which refers to excess civilian deaths caused by criminal...
also rejected what they called the "hugely exaggerated death toll figures" of ORB, citing the Survey Research Methods paper. IBC concluded that, "The pressing need is for more truth rooted in real experience, not the manipulation of numbers disconnected from reality."
Media coverage
An 18 September 2007 an article on the Media Lens website titled "The Media Ignore Credible Poll Revealing 1.2 Million Violent Deaths In Iraq" commented:
"Another aspect of reality that has no place in the corporate media’s painted window was highlighted last Friday with the release (September 14) of a new report by the British polling organisation, Opinion Research Business (ORB). ORB is no dissident, anti-war outfit; it is a respected polling company that has conducted studies for customers as mainstream as the BBC and the Conservative Party."
The Media Lens article added:
"And yet, despite its obvious significance, the ORB study has been almost entirely blanked by the US-UK media. At time of writing, four days after the findings were announced, the poll has been mentioned in just one national UK newspaper - ironically, the pro-war Observer. It has been ignored by the Guardian and the Independent."
The trotskyist World Socialist Website has also criticized the media for underreporting this survey. A week after its release, in the USA, only the Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
The Los Angeles Times is a daily newspaper published in Los Angeles, California, since 1881. It was the second-largest metropolitan newspaper in circulation in the United States in 2008 and the fourth most widely distributed newspaper in the country....
carried the story, of the leading newspapers, although NPR
NPR
NPR, formerly National Public Radio, is a privately and publicly funded non-profit membership media organization that serves as a national syndicator to a network of 900 public radio stations in the United States. NPR was created in 1970, following congressional passage of the Public Broadcasting...
did a piece on it the following Tuesday. In the UK, BBC TV reported it in 81 words at the end of a 34 second segment about a bombing in Baghdad on its flagship news magazine Newsnight
Newsnight
Newsnight is a BBC Television current affairs programme noted for its in-depth analysis and often robust cross-examination of senior politicians. Jeremy Paxman has been its main presenter for over two decades....
. On the BBC
BBC
The British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
website, it was described in 131 words tagged on at the end of an unrelated article with no mention of the study in the title. The only report in the UK press was in The Observer
The Observer
The Observer is a British newspaper, published on Sundays. In the same place on the political spectrum as its daily sister paper The Guardian, which acquired it in 1993, it takes a liberal or social democratic line on most issues. It is the world's oldest Sunday newspaper.-Origins:The first issue,...
where it was appended to a story on Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan
Alan Greenspan is an American economist who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006. He currently works as a private advisor and provides consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC...
's saying Iraq was about oil.
After the 2008 ORB update, it was reported in a UK newspaper The Guardian in March 2008.
See also
- Casualties of the Iraq War. An overview of many casualty estimates.
- Iraq War. Infobox there has the most up-to-date casualty figures.
- Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties
- Iraq Family Health Survey