British Polling Council
Encyclopedia
The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of market research
companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom. The objective of the BPC is to ensure standards of disclosure, designed to provide readers of published quantitative
survey results with an adequate basis for judging the reliability
and validity
of the presented statistical findings.
In practice this means that within a few days of a member organisation's poll being published in a newspaper, or reported in the broadcast media, the members must provide a website address where detailed statistical tables may be viewed. The full methodology
used must also be available to the public. The aim is to increase the level of confidence that the general public can place on published polls.
The BPC is modelled on the National Council on Public Polls in the United States
. The BPC was established in 2004, twelve years after the perceived failure of opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result of the United Kingdom general election, 1992
. This had led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society, and most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory Factor
' affected the polling. However, the BPC does not aim to dictate which methodologies its members use, and indeed they employ a wide range of fieldwork methods (telephone, door-to-door, and internet) and statistical tools, eg. most companies now weight by 'past vote', but this technique is rejected by some.
The BPC is concerned only with polls and surveys that set out to measure the opinions of representative samples
, for example the views of an explicitly stated population, for example 'all adults', or 'all voters' in a given area. They do not concern themselves with qualitative research
.
Membership is limited to organisations who can show to the satisfaction of the BPC that the sampling methods and weighting
procedures used are designed to accurately represent the views of all people within designated target groups (such as all adults, or voters etc).
Journalists and academics with expertise in polling are appointed as officers of the BPC.
Market research
Market research is any organized effort to gather information about markets or customers. It is a very important component of business strategy...
companies whose opinion polls are regularly published or broadcast in media in the United Kingdom. The objective of the BPC is to ensure standards of disclosure, designed to provide readers of published quantitative
Quantitative research
In the social sciences, quantitative research refers to the systematic empirical investigation of social phenomena via statistical, mathematical or computational techniques. The objective of quantitative research is to develop and employ mathematical models, theories and/or hypotheses pertaining to...
survey results with an adequate basis for judging the reliability
Reliability (statistics)
In statistics, reliability is the consistency of a set of measurements or of a measuring instrument, often used to describe a test. Reliability is inversely related to random error.-Types:There are several general classes of reliability estimates:...
and validity
Validity (statistics)
In science and statistics, validity has no single agreed definition but generally refers to the extent to which a concept, conclusion or measurement is well-founded and corresponds accurately to the real world. The word "valid" is derived from the Latin validus, meaning strong...
of the presented statistical findings.
In practice this means that within a few days of a member organisation's poll being published in a newspaper, or reported in the broadcast media, the members must provide a website address where detailed statistical tables may be viewed. The full methodology
Methodology
Methodology is generally a guideline for solving a problem, with specificcomponents such as phases, tasks, methods, techniques and tools . It can be defined also as follows:...
used must also be available to the public. The aim is to increase the level of confidence that the general public can place on published polls.
The BPC is modelled on the National Council on Public Polls in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
. The BPC was established in 2004, twelve years after the perceived failure of opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result of the United Kingdom general election, 1992
United Kingdom general election, 1992
The United Kingdom general election of 1992 was held on 9 April 1992, and was the fourth consecutive victory for the Conservative Party. This election result was one of the biggest surprises in 20th Century politics, as polling leading up to the day of the election showed Labour under leader Neil...
. This had led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society, and most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory Factor
Shy Tory Factor
Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon observed in the 1990s, where the share of the vote won by the Conservative Party in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.In the...
' affected the polling. However, the BPC does not aim to dictate which methodologies its members use, and indeed they employ a wide range of fieldwork methods (telephone, door-to-door, and internet) and statistical tools, eg. most companies now weight by 'past vote', but this technique is rejected by some.
Full disclosure
Through full disclosure the BPC aims to encourage the highest professional standards, and to advance the understanding, among politicians, the media and general public, of how opinion polls are conducted, and how to interpret poll results. The BPC also provides advice on best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls.The BPC is concerned only with polls and surveys that set out to measure the opinions of representative samples
Sample (statistics)
In statistics, a sample is a subset of a population. Typically, the population is very large, making a census or a complete enumeration of all the values in the population impractical or impossible. The sample represents a subset of manageable size...
, for example the views of an explicitly stated population, for example 'all adults', or 'all voters' in a given area. They do not concern themselves with qualitative research
Qualitative research
Qualitative research is a method of inquiry employed in many different academic disciplines, traditionally in the social sciences, but also in market research and further contexts. Qualitative researchers aim to gather an in-depth understanding of human behavior and the reasons that govern such...
.
Membership is limited to organisations who can show to the satisfaction of the BPC that the sampling methods and weighting
Weighting
The process of weighting involves emphasizing the contribution of some aspects of a phenomenon to a final effect or result — giving them 'more weight' in the analysis. That is, rather than each variable in the data contributing equally to the final result, some data are adjusted to contribute...
procedures used are designed to accurately represent the views of all people within designated target groups (such as all adults, or voters etc).
Journalists and academics with expertise in polling are appointed as officers of the BPC.
Members
The following organisations are members of the BPC:- Ipsos MORI
- Dods Polling
- Populus LtdPopulus LtdPopulus is a market research company in the United Kingdom formed in 2003. Populus co-founded the British Polling Council in 2004 and regularly publishes opinion polls on voting intention and as well as other political and commercial issues. Clients have included national brands such as the AA and...
- TNS System 3
- ComresComResComRes is a polling and research consultancy with British origins. The company has its registered company headquarters in London, United Kingdom and also has offices in Brussels, Edinburgh and Cardiff...
- Opinion Research Business
- Marketing Means
- Opinium
- YouGovYouGovYouGov, formerly known as PollingPoint in the United States, is an international internet-based market research firm launched in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare, now Chief Executive Officer, and Nadhim Zahawi...
- CELLO mruk research
- GfK NOPGfK NOPGfK NOP is a leading market research agency based in London, providing business insight through quantitative and qualitative research.- History :...
- Angus Reid Public OpinionAngus Reid Public OpinionAngus Reid Public Opinion is an international public affairs practice. It was established in 2006 under the name Angus Reid Strategies by Dr Angus Reid, a Canadian sociologist who founded his first research company in 1979. Reid sold the Angus Reid Group to Paris-based Ipsos SA in 2000...
- ICM Research
- Harris InteractiveHarris InteractiveHarris Interactive , headquartered in New York, New York, is a custom market research firm, known for the Harris Poll. Harris works in a wide range of industries...
See also
- EvaluationEvaluationEvaluation is systematic determination of merit, worth, and significance of something or someone using criteria against a set of standards.Evaluation often is used to characterize and appraise subjects of interest in a wide range of human enterprises, including the arts, criminal justice,...
- Quantitative researchQuantitative researchIn the social sciences, quantitative research refers to the systematic empirical investigation of social phenomena via statistical, mathematical or computational techniques. The objective of quantitative research is to develop and employ mathematical models, theories and/or hypotheses pertaining to...
- PsephologyPsephologyPsephology is that branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in the United Kingdom in 1952 by...
- Social researchSocial researchSocial research refers to research conducted by social scientists. Social research methods may be divided into two broad categories:* Quantitative designs approach social phenomena through quantifiable evidence, and often rely on statistical analysis of many cases to create valid and reliable...
- StatisticsStatisticsStatistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....
- Statistical surveyStatistical surveySurvey methodology is the field that studies surveys, that is, the sample of individuals from a population with a view towards making statistical inferences about the population using the sample. Polls about public opinion, such as political beliefs, are reported in the news media in democracies....
- Voodoo pollVoodoo pollAn open access poll is a type of opinion poll in which participants are self-selected. The term includes call-in, mail-in, and some online polls....
- Elections in the United KingdomElections in the United KingdomThere are five types of elections in the United Kingdom: United Kingdom general elections, elections to devolved parliaments and assemblies, elections to the European Parliament, local elections and mayoral elections. Elections are held on Election Day, which is conventionally a Thursday...
- Politics of the United KingdomPolitics of the United KingdomThe politics of the United Kingdom takes place within the framework of a constitutional monarchy, in which the Monarch is the head of state and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is the head of government...