Rally Round the Flag Syndrome
Encyclopedia
The rally 'round the flag effect (or syndrome) is a concept used in political science
and international relations
to explain increased short-run popular support of the President of the United States
during periods of international crisis
or war
. Because Rally 'Round The Flag syndrome reduces criticism of governmental policies, it is seen as a factor of Diversionary Foreign Policy
.
wrote his landmark paper Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson in 1970, where he conceived the idea of the effect. Mueller defined the effect as coming from an event with three qualities:
In addition, Mueller created five categories of rallies. These categories are considered dated by modern political scientists, as they rely heavily on Cold War
events. Mueller's five categories are:
. If opposition party members appear to support the president, the media has no conflict to report, thus it appears to the public that all is well with the performance of the president. The two theories have both been criticized, but it is generally accepted that the Patriotism School of thought is better to explain causes of rallies, while the Opinion Leadership School of thought is better to explain duration of rallies. It is also believed that the lower the presidential approval rating before the crisis, the larger the increase will be in terms of percentage points because it leaves the president more room for improvement. For example, Franklin Roosevelt only had a 12% increase in approval from 72% to 84% following the Attack on Pearl Harbor
, whereas George W. Bush had a 39% increase from 51% to 90% following the attacks on September 11.
Another theory about the cause of the syndrome is believed to be embedded in the US Constitution. Unlike in other countries, the constitution makes the President both head of government
and head of state
. Because of this, the president receives a temporary boost in popularity because his Head of State role gives him symbolic importance to the American people. However, as time goes on his duties as Head of Government require partisan decisions that polarize opposition parties and diminish popularity. This theory falls in line more with the Opinion Leadership School.
Due to the highly statistical nature of presidential polls, University of Alabama political scientist John O'Neal has approached the study of rally sound the flag using mathematics. O'Neal has postulated that the Opinion Leadership School is the more accurate of the two using mathematical equations. These equations are based on quantified factors such as the number of headlines from the New York Times about the crisis, the presence of bipartisan support or hostility, and prior popularity of the president.
The effect has been examined within the context of nearly every major foreign policy crises since World War II
. Some notable examples:
.
Political science
Political Science is a social science discipline concerned with the study of the state, government and politics. Aristotle defined it as the study of the state. It deals extensively with the theory and practice of politics, and the analysis of political systems and political behavior...
and international relations
International relations
International relations is the study of relationships between countries, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations , international nongovernmental organizations , non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations...
to explain increased short-run popular support of the President of the United States
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
during periods of international crisis
International crisis
An international crisis is a crisis between states. There are many definitions of an international crisis. Snyder "...a sequence of interactions between the governments of two or more sovereign states in severe conflict, short of actual war, but involving the perception of a dangerously high...
or war
War
War is a state of organized, armed, and often prolonged conflict carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression, social disruption, and usually high mortality. War should be understood as an actual, intentional and widespread armed conflict between political...
. Because Rally 'Round The Flag syndrome reduces criticism of governmental policies, it is seen as a factor of Diversionary Foreign Policy
Diversionary Foreign Policy
A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an International Relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife...
.
Mueller's definition
Political scientist John MuellerJohn Mueller
John E. Mueller is a political scientist in the field of international relations as well as a scholar of the history of dance. He is recognized for his ideas concerning "the banality of ethnic war" and the theory that major world conflicts are quickly becoming obsolete.-Career:He received his A.B...
wrote his landmark paper Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson in 1970, where he conceived the idea of the effect. Mueller defined the effect as coming from an event with three qualities:
- "Is international"
- "Involves the United States and particularly the President directly"
- "Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused"
In addition, Mueller created five categories of rallies. These categories are considered dated by modern political scientists, as they rely heavily on Cold War
Cold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
events. Mueller's five categories are:
- "Sudden US military intervention" (e.g., Korean WarKorean WarThe Korean War was a conventional war between South Korea, supported by the United Nations, and North Korea, supported by the People's Republic of China , with military material aid from the Soviet Union...
, Bay of Pigs InvasionBay of Pigs InvasionThe Bay of Pigs Invasion was an unsuccessful action by a CIA-trained force of Cuban exiles to invade southern Cuba, with support and encouragement from the US government, in an attempt to overthrow the Cuban government of Fidel Castro. The invasion was launched in April 1961, less than three months...
) - "Major diplomatic actions" (e.g., Truman DoctrineTruman DoctrineThe Truman Doctrine was a policy set forth by U.S. President Harry S Truman in a speech on March 12, 1947 stating that the U.S. would support Greece and Turkey with economic and military aid to prevent their falling into the Soviet sphere...
) - "Dramatic technological developments" (e.g., SputnikSputnik crisisThe Sputnik crisis is the name for the American reaction to the success of the Sputnik program. It was a key event during the Cold War that began on October 4, 1957 when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the first artificial Earth satellite....
) - "US-Soviet summit meetings" (e.g., Potsdam ConferencePotsdam ConferenceThe Potsdam Conference was held at Cecilienhof, the home of Crown Prince Wilhelm Hohenzollern, in Potsdam, occupied Germany, from 16 July to 2 August 1945. Participants were the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States...
) - "Major military developments in ongoing wars" (e.g., Tet Offensive)
Causes and durations
Since Mueller's original theories, two schools of thought have emerged to explain the causes of the syndrome. The first, "The Patriotism School of Thought" holds that in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity. The second, "The Opinion Leadership School" believes that the rally emerges from a lack of criticism from members of the opposition party, most often in the United States CongressUnited States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
. If opposition party members appear to support the president, the media has no conflict to report, thus it appears to the public that all is well with the performance of the president. The two theories have both been criticized, but it is generally accepted that the Patriotism School of thought is better to explain causes of rallies, while the Opinion Leadership School of thought is better to explain duration of rallies. It is also believed that the lower the presidential approval rating before the crisis, the larger the increase will be in terms of percentage points because it leaves the president more room for improvement. For example, Franklin Roosevelt only had a 12% increase in approval from 72% to 84% following the Attack on Pearl Harbor
Attack on Pearl Harbor
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise military strike conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of December 7, 1941...
, whereas George W. Bush had a 39% increase from 51% to 90% following the attacks on September 11.
Another theory about the cause of the syndrome is believed to be embedded in the US Constitution. Unlike in other countries, the constitution makes the President both head of government
Head of government
Head of government is the chief officer of the executive branch of a government, often presiding over a cabinet. In a parliamentary system, the head of government is often styled prime minister, chief minister, premier, etc...
and head of state
Head of State
A head of state is the individual that serves as the chief public representative of a monarchy, republic, federation, commonwealth or other kind of state. His or her role generally includes legitimizing the state and exercising the political powers, functions, and duties granted to the head of...
. Because of this, the president receives a temporary boost in popularity because his Head of State role gives him symbolic importance to the American people. However, as time goes on his duties as Head of Government require partisan decisions that polarize opposition parties and diminish popularity. This theory falls in line more with the Opinion Leadership School.
Due to the highly statistical nature of presidential polls, University of Alabama political scientist John O'Neal has approached the study of rally sound the flag using mathematics. O'Neal has postulated that the Opinion Leadership School is the more accurate of the two using mathematical equations. These equations are based on quantified factors such as the number of headlines from the New York Times about the crisis, the presence of bipartisan support or hostility, and prior popularity of the president.
Historical examples
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
. Some notable examples:
- Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile CrisisThe Cuban Missile Crisis was a confrontation among the Soviet Union, Cuba and the United States in October 1962, during the Cold War...
: President John F. KennedyJohn F. KennedyJohn Fitzgerald "Jack" Kennedy , often referred to by his initials JFK, was the 35th President of the United States, serving from 1961 until his assassination in 1963....
's approval rating in early October 1962 was at 61%. By November, after the crisis had passed, Kennedy's approval rose to 73%. The spike in approval peaked in December 1962 at 75%. Kennedy's approval rating slowly decreased again until it reached the pre-crisis level of 61% in June 1963. - Iran hostage crisisIran hostage crisisThe Iran hostage crisis was a diplomatic crisis between Iran and the United States where 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days from November 4, 1979 to January 20, 1981, after a group of Islamist students and militants took over the American Embassy in Tehran in support of the Iranian...
: President Jimmy CarterJimmy CarterJames Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. is an American politician who served as the 39th President of the United States and was the recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, the only U.S. President to have received the Prize after leaving office...
quickly gained 26 percentage points, jumping from 32 to 58% approval following the initial seizure of the U.S. embassy in TehranU.S. Embassy, TehranThe United States Embassy in Tehran is a building located in Tehran, Iran.-History:The embassy was designed in 1948 by the architect Ides van der Gracht. It was a long, low two-story brick building, similar to American high schools built in the 1930s and '40s. For this reason, the building was...
in November 1979. However, Carter's handling of the crisis caused popular support to decrease, and by November 1980 Carter had returned to his pre-crisis approval rating. - Operation Desert StormGulf WarThe Persian Gulf War , commonly referred to as simply the Gulf War, was a war waged by a U.N.-authorized coalition force from 34 nations led by the United States, against Iraq in response to Iraq's invasion and annexation of Kuwait.The war is also known under other names, such as the First Gulf...
(Persian Gulf War): President George H. W. BushGeorge H. W. BushGeorge Herbert Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 41st President of the United States . He had previously served as the 43rd Vice President of the United States , a congressman, an ambassador, and Director of Central Intelligence.Bush was born in Milton, Massachusetts, to...
was rated at 61% approval in December 1990, but following the success of Operation Desert Storm, Bush enjoyed a peak 89% approval rating in February 1991. From there, Bush's approval rating slowly decreased, reaching the pre-crisis level of 61% in October 1991. - Following the September 11 attacks in 2001, President George W. BushGeorge W. BushGeorge Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
received an unprecedented increase in his approval rating. On September 10, Bush had a Gallup Poll rating of 51%. By September 15, his approval rate had increased by 34% to 85%. Just a week later, Bush was at 90%, the highest presidential approval rating ever. Over a year after the attacks occurred, Bush still received higher approval than he did before 9/11 (68% in November 2002). Both the size and duration of Bush's popularity after 9/11 are believed to be the largest of any post-crisis boost. Many people believe that this popularity gave Bush a mandate and eventually the political leverage to begin the War in Iraq.
Controversy
The idea of the syndrome is seen as controversial because it implies that crises and more importantly, wars actually benefit presidents for political purposes. It is argued that because wars increase the popularity of a president, a president might be more willing to use military force if his approval rating is dropping. Because this diverts attention away from the handling of domestic policies, some believe the rally round the flag syndrome encourages diversionary foreign policyDiversionary Foreign Policy
A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an International Relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife...
.