Risk homeostasis
Encyclopedia
Risk homeostasis is a hypothesis
about risk
, developed by Gerald J.S. Wilde, a professor emeritus of psychology at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario
, Canada
. This hypothesis is elucidated in Wilde's book. The idea of risk homeostasis has garnered criticism.
The hypothesis of risk homeostasis
holds that everyone has his or her own fixed level of acceptable risk. When the level of risk in one part of the individual's life changes, there will be a corresponding rise or fall in risk elsewhere to bring the overall risk back to that individual's equilibrium. Wilde argues that the same is true of larger human systems, e.g. a population of drivers.
For example, in a Munich
study, half a fleet of taxicab
s were equipped with anti-lock brakes (ABS), while the other half had conventional brake systems. The crash rate was the same for both types of cab, and Wilde concludes this was owing to drivers of ABS-equipped cabs taking more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them, while the non-ABS drivers drove more carefully since ABS would not be there to help in case of a dangerous situation.
Likewise, it's been found that drivers behave less carefully around bicyclists wearing helmets than around unhelmeted riders.
Critics of risk homeostasis theory point out that the fatality rate from car crashes has fallen dramatically following the introduction of seat belt laws, directly contradicting Wilde's ideas.(Andreassen, Broughton, Oppe, and Ameen & Naji).
Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. The term derives from the Greek, ὑποτιθέναι – hypotithenai meaning "to put under" or "to suppose". For a hypothesis to be put forward as a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it...
about risk
Risk
Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity will lead to a loss . The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists . Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks"...
, developed by Gerald J.S. Wilde, a professor emeritus of psychology at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario
Kingston, Ontario
Kingston, Ontario is a Canadian city located in Eastern Ontario where the St. Lawrence River flows out of Lake Ontario. Originally a First Nations settlement called "Katarowki," , growing European exploration in the 17th Century made it an important trading post...
, Canada
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
. This hypothesis is elucidated in Wilde's book. The idea of risk homeostasis has garnered criticism.
The hypothesis of risk homeostasis
Homeostasis
Homeostasis is the property of a system that regulates its internal environment and tends to maintain a stable, constant condition of properties like temperature or pH...
holds that everyone has his or her own fixed level of acceptable risk. When the level of risk in one part of the individual's life changes, there will be a corresponding rise or fall in risk elsewhere to bring the overall risk back to that individual's equilibrium. Wilde argues that the same is true of larger human systems, e.g. a population of drivers.
For example, in a Munich
Munich
Munich The city's motto is "" . Before 2006, it was "Weltstadt mit Herz" . Its native name, , is derived from the Old High German Munichen, meaning "by the monks' place". The city's name derives from the monks of the Benedictine order who founded the city; hence the monk depicted on the city's coat...
study, half a fleet of taxicab
Taxicab
A taxicab, also taxi or cab, is a type of vehicle for hire with a driver, used by a single passenger or small group of passengers, often for a non-shared ride. A taxicab conveys passengers between locations of their choice...
s were equipped with anti-lock brakes (ABS), while the other half had conventional brake systems. The crash rate was the same for both types of cab, and Wilde concludes this was owing to drivers of ABS-equipped cabs taking more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them, while the non-ABS drivers drove more carefully since ABS would not be there to help in case of a dangerous situation.
Likewise, it's been found that drivers behave less carefully around bicyclists wearing helmets than around unhelmeted riders.
Critics of risk homeostasis theory point out that the fatality rate from car crashes has fallen dramatically following the introduction of seat belt laws, directly contradicting Wilde's ideas.(Andreassen, Broughton, Oppe, and Ameen & Naji).
External links
- Target Risk - web version of the first edition of Wilde's book