Roberta Wohlstetter
Encyclopedia
Roberta Mary Morgan, better known by her married name of Roberta Wohlstetter, (August 22, 1912 - January 6, 2007), was one of America's most important historians of military intelligence
. Her most influential work is Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. The former secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld
, is said to have required that his aides read it. Indeed, it was brought up during discussions of intelligence failures leading to the successful al-Qaeda
attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon
(Woodward, p.22).
She was the daughter of Edmund M. Morgan, Jr., a noted Harvard law professor who helped to simplify the federal rules of civil procedure and to modernize the U.S. code of military justice
. Her husband was the late nuclear strategist
Albert Wohlstetter
.
She was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom
by President Ronald Reagan
. Reagan said:
Mrs. Wohlstetter worked for the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization based in Santa Monica, California
, from 1948 to 1965 and continued to be a consultant through 2002.
Roberta Morgan Wohlstetter died at 4:00 a.m. on January 6, 2007 at New York Hospital
in New York City. She was 94 years old. She is survived by her daughter Joan Wohlstetter-Hall.
1941 surprise attack
. In the years preceding the attack, U.S. code breakers
were routinely reading much of the Japanese military and diplomatic traffic. However, a Japanese attack came as both a strategic and tactical surprise. On the strategic level, U.S. intelligence analysts
viewed the attack as unlikely because Japan could not expect to win the subsequent war (as it happens, Japanese planners had never completed a thorough strategic assessment. They were unwilling to abandon their expansion in east Asia and viewed the attack as the best way to start the inevitable confrontation). Furthermore, on several occasions during 1940-41 U.S. forces were put on high alert but no attack came, leading to fatigue. Finally, it was believed that the logical place for a Japanese attack would be in the Philippines
. The book argues, in part, that intelligence failures are to be expected because of the difficulty identifying "signals" from the background "noise" of raw facts, regardless of the quantity of the latter.
On a tactical level, the attack came as a surprise because warning mechanisms - radar stations and patrol planes - were not deployed, although senior officers came to believe that they were.
Military intelligence
Military intelligence is a military discipline that exploits a number of information collection and analysis approaches to provide guidance and direction to commanders in support of their decisions....
. Her most influential work is Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. The former secretary of defense, Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Henry Rumsfeld is an American politician and businessman. Rumsfeld served as the 13th Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 under President Gerald Ford, and as the 21st Secretary of Defense from 2001 to 2006 under President George W. Bush. He is both the youngest and the oldest person to...
, is said to have required that his aides read it. Indeed, it was brought up during discussions of intelligence failures leading to the successful al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is a global broad-based militant Islamist terrorist organization founded by Osama bin Laden sometime between August 1988 and late 1989. It operates as a network comprising both a multinational, stateless army and a radical Sunni Muslim movement calling for global Jihad...
attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon
September 11, 2001 attacks
The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks (also referred to as September 11, September 11th or 9/119/11 is pronounced "nine eleven". The slash is not part of the pronunciation...
(Woodward, p.22).
She was the daughter of Edmund M. Morgan, Jr., a noted Harvard law professor who helped to simplify the federal rules of civil procedure and to modernize the U.S. code of military justice
Uniform Code of Military Justice
The Uniform Code of Military Justice , is the foundation of military law in the United States. It is was established by the United States Congress in accordance with the authority given by the United States Constitution in Article I, Section 8, which provides that "The Congress shall have Power . ....
. Her husband was the late nuclear strategist
Nuclear strategy
Nuclear strategy involves the development of doctrines and strategies for the production and use of nuclear weapons.As a sub-branch of military strategy, nuclear strategy attempts to match nuclear weapons as means to political ends...
Albert Wohlstetter
Albert Wohlstetter
Albert Wohlstetter was an influential and controversial nuclear strategist during the Cold War. He was major intellectual force behind efforts to deter nuclear war and avoid the further spread of nuclear weapons to more nations...
.
She was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom
Presidential Medal of Freedom
The Presidential Medal of Freedom is an award bestowed by the President of the United States and is—along with thecomparable Congressional Gold Medal bestowed by an act of U.S. Congress—the highest civilian award in the United States...
by President Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
. Reagan said:
Roberta Wohlstetter, a generation ahead of her time, asserted her influence in areas dominated by and, in some cases, reserved for men. She rose above all obstacles and has had a profound influence. Her inquiries went to the heart of the system of our society, focusing on essential questions. Her analysis of the problems of terrorism, intelligence, and warning and, with Albert [Wohlstetter], the problem of nuclear deterrence broke new ground and opened new alternatives for policymakers. I daresay that she has blankly enjoyed posing the same penetrating questions to her husband that she has to the intellectual and political leaders of the country. And that is certainly one explanation for the clarity and persuasiveness of his own voluminous words on strategy, politics, and world affairs.
Mrs. Wohlstetter worked for the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization based in Santa Monica, California
Santa Monica, California
Santa Monica is a beachfront city in western Los Angeles County, California, US. Situated on Santa Monica Bay, it is surrounded on three sides by the city of Los Angeles — Pacific Palisades on the northwest, Brentwood on the north, West Los Angeles on the northeast, Mar Vista on the east, and...
, from 1948 to 1965 and continued to be a consultant through 2002.
Roberta Morgan Wohlstetter died at 4:00 a.m. on January 6, 2007 at New York Hospital
New York Hospital
New York Hospital or “Old New York Hospital” or “City Hospital” was the oldest hospital in New York City and the second oldest hospital in the United States.-Early History:...
in New York City. She was 94 years old. She is survived by her daughter Joan Wohlstetter-Hall.
Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision
This classic study of military intelligence attempts to explain the causes of the U.S. intelligence failures that led to Imperial Japan'sEmpire of Japan
The Empire of Japan is the name of the state of Japan that existed from the Meiji Restoration on 3 January 1868 to the enactment of the post-World War II Constitution of...
1941 surprise attack
Pearl Harbor
Pearl Harbor, known to Hawaiians as Puuloa, is a lagoon harbor on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, west of Honolulu. Much of the harbor and surrounding lands is a United States Navy deep-water naval base. It is also the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet...
. In the years preceding the attack, U.S. code breakers
Cryptanalysis
Cryptanalysis is the study of methods for obtaining the meaning of encrypted information, without access to the secret information that is normally required to do so. Typically, this involves knowing how the system works and finding a secret key...
were routinely reading much of the Japanese military and diplomatic traffic. However, a Japanese attack came as both a strategic and tactical surprise. On the strategic level, U.S. intelligence analysts
Intelligence analysis
Intelligence analysis is the process of taking known information about situations and entities of strategic, operational, or tactical importance, characterizing the known, and, with appropriate statements of probability, the future actions in those situations and by those entities...
viewed the attack as unlikely because Japan could not expect to win the subsequent war (as it happens, Japanese planners had never completed a thorough strategic assessment. They were unwilling to abandon their expansion in east Asia and viewed the attack as the best way to start the inevitable confrontation). Furthermore, on several occasions during 1940-41 U.S. forces were put on high alert but no attack came, leading to fatigue. Finally, it was believed that the logical place for a Japanese attack would be in the Philippines
Philippines
The Philippines , officially known as the Republic of the Philippines , is a country in Southeast Asia in the western Pacific Ocean. To its north across the Luzon Strait lies Taiwan. West across the South China Sea sits Vietnam...
. The book argues, in part, that intelligence failures are to be expected because of the difficulty identifying "signals" from the background "noise" of raw facts, regardless of the quantity of the latter.
On a tactical level, the attack came as a surprise because warning mechanisms - radar stations and patrol planes - were not deployed, although senior officers came to believe that they were.
Works
- Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, Stanford University PressStanford University PressThe Stanford University Press is the publishing house of Stanford University. In 1892, an independent publishing company was established at the university. The first use of the name "Stanford University Press" in a book's imprinting occurred in 1895...
, Stanford, CA. Paperback. ISBN 0-804-70598-4. (1962). - Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and foresight, Rand Corporation. Memorandum. (1965).
- International terrorism: Kidnapping to win friends and influence people. (1974).
Books
- Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, edited by Robert Zarate and Henry SokolskiHenry D. SokolskiHenry D. Sokolski is the Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based nonprofit organization founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues among policymakers, scholars and the media. He was appointed by the U.S...
(Strategic Studies InstituteStrategic Studies InstituteThe Strategic Studies Institute is the U.S. Army's institute for strategic and national security research and analysis. It is part of the U.S. Army War College. SSI conducts strategic research and analysis to support the U.S. Army War College curricula, provides direct analysis for Army and...
, January 26, 2009), with commentaries by Henry S. RowenHenry RowenHenry S. Rowen is an American politician, economist, and academician.- Early years :Rowen was born in Boston in 1925. He attended M.I.T. and graduated with a bachelor's in industrial management in 1949...
, Alain C. EnthovenAlain EnthovenAlain C. Enthoven is an American economist. He was a Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense from 1961 to 1965, and from 1965 to 1969 he was the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Systems Analysis. Currently he is Marriner S. Eccles Professor of Public and Private Management, Emeritus, at Stanford...
, Richard PerleRichard PerleRichard Norman Perle is an American political advisor, consultant, and lobbyist who began his career in government, a senior staff member to Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson on the Senate Armed Services Committee in the 1970’s...
, Stephen J. Lukasik and Andrew W. MarshallAndrew Marshall (foreign policy strategist)Andrew W. Marshall is the director of the United States Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment. Appointed to the position in 1973 by United States President Richard Nixon, Marshall has been re-appointed by every president that followed....
.
External links
- Remarks at the Presentation Ceremony for the Presidential Medal of Freedom, The White House, November 7, 1985.
- SourceWatch: Roberta Wohlstetter
- Bob WoodwardBob WoodwardRobert Upshur Woodward is an American investigative journalist and non-fiction author. He has worked for The Washington Post since 1971 as a reporter, and is currently an associate editor of the Post....
, Bush at War, Simon and Schuster. ISBN 0-743-20473-5. (2002). - James Johnson and Robert Zarate, A Slow Pearl Harbor: Some Foreign Policy Disasters are a Long Time in the Making, The Weekly StandardThe Weekly StandardThe Weekly Standard is an American neoconservative opinion magazine published 48 times per year. Its founding publisher, News Corporation, debuted the title September 18, 1995. Currently edited by founder William Kristol and Fred Barnes, the Standard has been described as a "redoubt of...
, December 19, 2005. - RAND Corporation Press Release, Obituary: Roberta Wohlstetter: Pioneering RAND Policy Analyst and Historian of Military Intelligence, January 9, 2007.
- Richard Pyle, Intelligence Expert who Analyzed Pearl Harbor Dies in NYC at 94, Associated PressAssociated PressThe Associated Press is an American news agency. The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations in the United States, which both contribute stories to the AP and use material written by its staff journalists...
(via Newsday), January 9, 2007. - Stephen Miller, Roberta Wohlstetter, 94, Defense Analyst, The New York Sun, January 10, 2007.
- Patricia Sullivan, Roberta M. Wohlstetter; Military Intelligence Expert, Washington Post, January 10, 2007.
- Elaine Woo, Roberta Wohlstetter, 94; Wrote Pearl Harbor Study, Los Angeles TimesLos Angeles TimesThe Los Angeles Times is a daily newspaper published in Los Angeles, California, since 1881. It was the second-largest metropolitan newspaper in circulation in the United States in 2008 and the fourth most widely distributed newspaper in the country....
, January 11, 2007. - Dennis Hevesi, Roberta Wohlstetter, 94, Military Policy Analyst Dies, The New York TimesThe New York TimesThe New York Times is an American daily newspaper founded and continuously published in New York City since 1851. The New York Times has won 106 Pulitzer Prizes, the most of any news organization...
, January 11, 2007. - ABC NewsABC NewsABC News is the news gathering and broadcasting division of American broadcast television network ABC, a subsidiary of The Walt Disney Company...
, In Memoriam: Lives of Note 01.14.07, This Week with George StephanopoulosGeorge StephanopoulosGeorge Robert Stephanopoulos is an American television journalist and a former political advisor.Stephanopoulos is most well known as the chief political correspondent for ABC News – the news division of the broadcast television network ABC – and a co-anchor of ABC News's morning news...
, January 14, 2007. - Robert Zarate, First Lady of Intelligence: Roberta Wohlstetter, 1912-2007, The Weekly Standard, January 22, 2007.
- Albert Wohlstetter Dot Com, a website that examines the careers and writings of the late Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter.