Straw poll
Encyclopedia
A straw poll or straw vote is a vote
with nonbinding results. Straw polls provide dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation. In meetings subject to rules of order, impromptu straw polls often are taken to see if there is enough support for an idea to devote more meeting time to it, and (when not a secret ballot) for the attendees to see who is on which side of a question. However, Robert's Rules of Order
prohibits straw polls, calling them "meaningless and dilatory" because they subvert the deliberative charge of deliberative bodies. Among political bodies, straw polls often are scheduled for events at which many people interested in the polling question can be expected to vote. Sometimes polls conducted without ordinary voting controls in place (i.e., on an honor system, such as in online polls) are also called "straw polls".
The idiom
may allude to a straw (thin plant stalk) held up to see in what direction the wind blows, in this case, the wind of group opinion. Other possible origins include allusion to the insignificance of straw as in "straw man
".
before the actual (effective) vote.
political caucus
es. Such straw polls can be taken before selecting delegate
s and voting on resolution
s. The results of straw polls are taken by the media to influence delegates in caucus later (as well as delegates to political conventions), and thus serve as important precursors. Straw polls are also scheduled informally by other organizations interested in the U.S. presidential election.
Well-known American straw polls include the Ames Straw Poll
and the Texas Straw Poll
, both conducted on behalf of the Republican Party
. Being run by private organizations, they are not subject to public oversight or verifiability. However, they provide important interactive dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation.
The Ames, Iowa
, straw poll has achieved a reputation as a meaningful straw poll during the presidential campaign because of its large voter turnout and relatively high media recognition, as well as Iowa's being the first state to vote in caucuses before the primaries. This poll was last conducted on August 13, 2011 with a $30 entry fee per voter. The Texas Straw Poll conducted on 2007-09-01 required voters to have been former delegates or alternate delegates.
The meaning of results from the varying poll types is disputed. Opinion polls are generally conducted with statistical selection controls in place and are thus called "scientific", while straw polls and honor-system polls are conducted among self-selected populations and are called "unscientific". However, as predictors of poll results among larger populations (i.e., elections), each method has known flaws.
A margin of error
is intrinsic in any subset polling method, and is a mathematical function of the difference in size between the subset and the larger population; sampling error
is constant across different poll methods with the same sample sizes. Selection bias
, nonresponse bias, or coverage bias occurs when the conditions for subset polling significantly differ from the conditions for the larger poll or election; event-based straw polls, where registration often closely mirrors voter registration, suffer less from nonresponse bias than opinion polls, where inclusion generally means owning a landline phone, being the party that answers the phone, being willing to answer the poll questions, and being a "likely voter" based on pollster criteria. Response bias
occurs when respondents do not indicate their true beliefs, such as in bias due to intentional manipulation by respondents, haste, social pressure, or confusion; such biases may be present in any polling situation. Wording of questions may also inject bias, although this is more likely in a telephone setting than in an event-based ballot setting.
By relying on identity information, such as that publicly traceable to telephone numbers or voter registration addresses and that voluntarily provided by respondents such as age and gender, polls can be made more scientific. Straw polls may be improved by asking identity questions, tracing group-based trends, and publishing statistical studies of the data. Opinion polls may be improved by more closely mirroring the larger poll or election anticipated, such as in wording of questions and inclusion procedure. Honor-system polls may be improved by adding ordinary voting controls; for example, online polls may rely on established social-networking and identity providers for verification to minimize multiple voting.
Voting
Voting is a method for a group such as a meeting or an electorate to make a decision or express an opinion—often following discussions, debates, or election campaigns. It is often found in democracies and republics.- Reasons for voting :...
with nonbinding results. Straw polls provide dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation. In meetings subject to rules of order, impromptu straw polls often are taken to see if there is enough support for an idea to devote more meeting time to it, and (when not a secret ballot) for the attendees to see who is on which side of a question. However, Robert's Rules of Order
Robert's Rules of Order
Robert's Rules of Order is the short title of a book containing rules of order intended to be adopted as a parliamentary authority for use by a deliberative assembly written by Brig. Gen...
prohibits straw polls, calling them "meaningless and dilatory" because they subvert the deliberative charge of deliberative bodies. Among political bodies, straw polls often are scheduled for events at which many people interested in the polling question can be expected to vote. Sometimes polls conducted without ordinary voting controls in place (i.e., on an honor system, such as in online polls) are also called "straw polls".
The idiom
Idiom
Idiom is an expression, word, or phrase that has a figurative meaning that is comprehended in regard to a common use of that expression that is separate from the literal meaning or definition of the words of which it is made...
may allude to a straw (thin plant stalk) held up to see in what direction the wind blows, in this case, the wind of group opinion. Other possible origins include allusion to the insignificance of straw as in "straw man
Straw man
A straw man is a component of an argument and is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position, twisting his words or by means of [false] assumptions...
".
International politics
Straw polls are used in the selection process of the United Nations Secretary-GeneralUnited Nations Secretary-General
The Secretary-General of the United Nations is the head of the Secretariat of the United Nations, one of the principal organs of the United Nations. The Secretary-General also acts as the de facto spokesperson and leader of the United Nations....
before the actual (effective) vote.
United States politics
A formal straw poll is common in AmericanUnited States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
political caucus
Caucus
A caucus is a meeting of supporters or members of a political party or movement, especially in the United States and Canada. As the use of the term has been expanded the exact definition has come to vary among political cultures.-Origin of the term:...
es. Such straw polls can be taken before selecting delegate
Delegate
A delegate is a person who speaks or acts on behalf of an organization at a meeting or conference between organizations of the same level A delegate is a person who speaks or acts on behalf of an organization (e.g., a government, a charity, an NGO, or a trade union) at a meeting or conference...
s and voting on resolution
Resolution (law)
A resolution is a written motion adopted by a deliberative body. The substance of the resolution can be anything that can normally be proposed as a motion. For long or important motions, though, it is often better to have them written out so that discussion is easier or so that it can be...
s. The results of straw polls are taken by the media to influence delegates in caucus later (as well as delegates to political conventions), and thus serve as important precursors. Straw polls are also scheduled informally by other organizations interested in the U.S. presidential election.
Well-known American straw polls include the Ames Straw Poll
Ames Straw Poll
The Ames Straw Poll is a presidential straw poll taken by Iowa Republicans. It occurs in Ames, Iowa on the campus of Iowa State University, on a Saturday in August of years in an election cycle in which the Republican presidential nomination seems to be undecided...
and the Texas Straw Poll
Texas Straw Poll
The Texas Straw Poll is a straw poll for the United States Republican presidential primary elections that was started in 2007 through promotion by Townhall.com. The first poll was held on Saturday, September 1, 2007, in Fort Worth, Texas...
, both conducted on behalf of the Republican Party
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
. Being run by private organizations, they are not subject to public oversight or verifiability. However, they provide important interactive dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation.
The Ames, Iowa
Ames, Iowa
Ames is a city located in the central part of the U.S. state of Iowa in Story County, and approximately north of Des Moines. The U.S. Census Bureau designates that Ames, Iowa metropolitan statistical area as encompassing all of Story County, and which, when combined with the Boone, Iowa...
, straw poll has achieved a reputation as a meaningful straw poll during the presidential campaign because of its large voter turnout and relatively high media recognition, as well as Iowa's being the first state to vote in caucuses before the primaries. This poll was last conducted on August 13, 2011 with a $30 entry fee per voter. The Texas Straw Poll conducted on 2007-09-01 required voters to have been former delegates or alternate delegates.
Other types of polls
Straw polls are contrasted with opinion polls, usually conducted by telephone and based on samples of the voting public. Straw polls can also be contrasted with honor-system polls (such as online polls), in which ordinary voting controls are absent. In an ordinary event-based straw poll, controls common to elections are enforced: voting twice is prohibited; polls are not open for inordinately long periods of time; interim results are not publicized before polls close; etc. Honor-system polls may be conducted wholly online, conducted at one location over a period of months, conducted with interim results publicized, or even conducted with explicit permission to vote multiple times.The meaning of results from the varying poll types is disputed. Opinion polls are generally conducted with statistical selection controls in place and are thus called "scientific", while straw polls and honor-system polls are conducted among self-selected populations and are called "unscientific". However, as predictors of poll results among larger populations (i.e., elections), each method has known flaws.
A margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
is intrinsic in any subset polling method, and is a mathematical function of the difference in size between the subset and the larger population; sampling error
Sampling error
-Random sampling:In statistics, sampling error or estimation error is the error caused by observing a sample instead of the whole population. The sampling error can be found by subtracting the value of a parameter from the value of a statistic...
is constant across different poll methods with the same sample sizes. Selection bias
Selection bias
Selection bias is a statistical bias in which there is an error in choosing the individuals or groups to take part in a scientific study. It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The term "selection bias" most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, resulting from the...
, nonresponse bias, or coverage bias occurs when the conditions for subset polling significantly differ from the conditions for the larger poll or election; event-based straw polls, where registration often closely mirrors voter registration, suffer less from nonresponse bias than opinion polls, where inclusion generally means owning a landline phone, being the party that answers the phone, being willing to answer the poll questions, and being a "likely voter" based on pollster criteria. Response bias
Response bias
Response bias is a type of cognitive bias which can affect the results of a statistical survey if respondents answer questions in the way they think the questioner wants them to answer rather than according to their true beliefs...
occurs when respondents do not indicate their true beliefs, such as in bias due to intentional manipulation by respondents, haste, social pressure, or confusion; such biases may be present in any polling situation. Wording of questions may also inject bias, although this is more likely in a telephone setting than in an event-based ballot setting.
By relying on identity information, such as that publicly traceable to telephone numbers or voter registration addresses and that voluntarily provided by respondents such as age and gender, polls can be made more scientific. Straw polls may be improved by asking identity questions, tracing group-based trends, and publishing statistical studies of the data. Opinion polls may be improved by more closely mirroring the larger poll or election anticipated, such as in wording of questions and inclusion procedure. Honor-system polls may be improved by adding ordinary voting controls; for example, online polls may rely on established social-networking and identity providers for verification to minimize multiple voting.