Strong inference
Encyclopedia
In philosophy of science
, strong inference is a model of scientific inquiry that emphasises the need for alternative hypotheses, rather than a single hypothesis in order to avoid confirmation bias
.
Strong inference was developed by John R. Platt, a biophysicist
at the University of Chicago
. Platt notes that certain fields, such as molecular biology
and high-energy physics, seem to adhere strongly to strong inference, with very beneficial results for the rate of progress in those fields.
, was aptly described by Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin in 1897:
Despite the admonitions of Platt, reviewers of grant-applications often require "A Hypothesis" as part of the proposal (note the singular). Peer-review of research can help avoid the mistakes of single-hypotheses, but only so long as the reviewers are not in the thrall of the same hypothesis. If there is a shared enthrallment among the reviewers in a commonly believed hypothesis, then innovation becomes difficult because alternative hypotheses are not seriously considered, and sometimes not even permitted.
, is described as:
These phases create the critical seed observation(s) upon which one can base alternative hypotheses.
Philosophy of science
The philosophy of science is concerned with the assumptions, foundations, methods and implications of science. It is also concerned with the use and merit of science and sometimes overlaps metaphysics and epistemology by exploring whether scientific results are actually a study of truth...
, strong inference is a model of scientific inquiry that emphasises the need for alternative hypotheses, rather than a single hypothesis in order to avoid confirmation bias
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true.David Perkins, a geneticist, coined the term "myside bias" referring to a preference for "my" side of an issue...
.
Strong inference was developed by John R. Platt, a biophysicist
Biophysics
Biophysics is an interdisciplinary science that uses the methods of physical science to study biological systems. Studies included under the branches of biophysics span all levels of biological organization, from the molecular scale to whole organisms and ecosystems...
at the University of Chicago
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois, USA. It was founded by the American Baptist Education Society with a donation from oil magnate and philanthropist John D. Rockefeller and incorporated in 1890...
. Platt notes that certain fields, such as molecular biology
Molecular biology
Molecular biology is the branch of biology that deals with the molecular basis of biological activity. This field overlaps with other areas of biology and chemistry, particularly genetics and biochemistry...
and high-energy physics, seem to adhere strongly to strong inference, with very beneficial results for the rate of progress in those fields.
The single hypothesis problem
The problem with single hypotheses, confirmation biasConfirmation bias
Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true.David Perkins, a geneticist, coined the term "myside bias" referring to a preference for "my" side of an issue...
, was aptly described by Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin in 1897:
Despite the admonitions of Platt, reviewers of grant-applications often require "A Hypothesis" as part of the proposal (note the singular). Peer-review of research can help avoid the mistakes of single-hypotheses, but only so long as the reviewers are not in the thrall of the same hypothesis. If there is a shared enthrallment among the reviewers in a commonly believed hypothesis, then innovation becomes difficult because alternative hypotheses are not seriously considered, and sometimes not even permitted.
Strong Inference
The method, very similar to the scientific methodScientific method
Scientific method refers to a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of...
, is described as:
- Devising alternative hypotheses;
- Devising a crucial experimentExperimentAn experiment is a methodical procedure carried out with the goal of verifying, falsifying, or establishing the validity of a hypothesis. Experiments vary greatly in their goal and scale, but always rely on repeatable procedure and logical analysis of the results...
(or several of them), with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses; - Carrying out the experiment so as to get a clean result;
- Recycling the procedure, making subhypotheses or sequential hypotheses to refine the possibilities that remain, and so on.
Strong inference plus
The limitations of Strong-Inference can be corrected by having two preceding phases:- An exploratory phase: at this point information is inadequate so observations are chosen randomly or intuitively or based on scientific creativity.
- A pilot phase: in this phase statistical powerStatistical powerThe power of a statistical test is the probability that the test will reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is actually false . The power is in general a function of the possible distributions, often determined by a parameter, under the alternative hypothesis...
is determined by replicating experiments under identical experimental conditions.
These phases create the critical seed observation(s) upon which one can base alternative hypotheses.