The Real Majority
Encyclopedia
The Real Majority: An Extraordinary Examination of the American Electorate was a 1970 bestselling analysis of United States politics by Ben Wattenberg and Richard M. Scammon
. The book analyzed electoral data, especially from the 1968 presidential election
, to argue that the American electorate was centrist, and that parties or candidates, to be viable, must appeal to the "real majority" of the electorate at the center.
, who were both moderate Democrats
at that time. Wattenberg is now a prominent figure in the neo-conservative movement, although at the time of the book's publication he was a member of Social Democrats USA
.
"owned" "the Economic Issue" (a broad category encompassing such issues as Social Security
and employment
), the Republicans likewise "owned" "the Social Issue" (crime
, drugs
, and morality
). They argued that whichever party could exploit their own strengths, and neutralize their opponent's, would prevail.
The authors traced the dichotomy in part to voter concerns about "law and order" in the 1960s. The concern grew as disorder became associated with racial tension, activism and college radicalism; and the people associated with those issues generally had liberal attitudes on sexual behavior and drug use. The authors argued that the electorate at the time did not share this kind of liberalism.
The authors noticed many Democrats took a liberal stance on what they called issues of law and order and permissiveness, and said that this could be potentially disastrous. They intended the book to be a warning to Democrats about the danger. They argued that the "real majority" was still economically liberal, but socially conservative. They advised Democrats that Republicans would increasingly garner votes based on "the Social Issue".
The Real Majority is often compared and contrasted with The Emerging Republican Majority, a book by Republican strategist Kevin Phillips
which was released at the same time. Phillips concluded that the majority was inevitable, a conclusion Wattenberg and Scammon reject.
, said the book was superior to Phillips' and called the book "must reading" for the far-left of the Democratic party, as well as Republicans and "every thoughtful citizen".
", Nixon had already chosen this course of action before the book was published. Nevertheless, Nixon welcomed the book as a useful and interesting analysis of trends he had already observed, and encouraged Republicans to read it. Secondly, as the book was intended as a warning to Democrats, Nixon saw it as encouragement to deliver his own message all the more forcefully to ensure it succeeded despite political opponents who were now more aware of what he was doing.
Richard M. Scammon
Richard M. Scammon was an author, political scientist and elections scholar. He served as Director of the U.S. Bureau of the Census from 1961 to 1965. Afterwards, he worked for decades directing election analysis for NBC News....
. The book analyzed electoral data, especially from the 1968 presidential election
United States presidential election, 1968
The United States presidential election of 1968 was the 46th quadrennial United States presidential election. Coming four years after Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won in a historic landslide, it saw Johnson forced out of the race and Republican Richard Nixon elected...
, to argue that the American electorate was centrist, and that parties or candidates, to be viable, must appeal to the "real majority" of the electorate at the center.
Authors
The book was written by Ben Wattenberg and Richard M. ScammonRichard M. Scammon
Richard M. Scammon was an author, political scientist and elections scholar. He served as Director of the U.S. Bureau of the Census from 1961 to 1965. Afterwards, he worked for decades directing election analysis for NBC News....
, who were both moderate Democrats
Democratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
at that time. Wattenberg is now a prominent figure in the neo-conservative movement, although at the time of the book's publication he was a member of Social Democrats USA
Social Democrats USA
Social Democrats, USA was the principal association of U.S. social democrats from 1972–2005.SDUSA was founded in 1972 when the Socialist Party of America renamed itself Social Democrats, USA...
.
Summary
The authors argued that while the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
"owned" "the Economic Issue" (a broad category encompassing such issues as Social Security
Social Security (United States)
In the United States, Social Security refers to the federal Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program.The original Social Security Act and the current version of the Act, as amended encompass several social welfare and social insurance programs...
and employment
Employment
Employment is a contract between two parties, one being the employer and the other being the employee. An employee may be defined as:- Employee :...
), the Republicans likewise "owned" "the Social Issue" (crime
Crime
Crime is the breach of rules or laws for which some governing authority can ultimately prescribe a conviction...
, drugs
DRUGS
Destroy Rebuild Until God Shows are an American post-hardcore band formed in 2010. They released their debut self-titled album on February 22, 2011.- Formation :...
, and morality
Morality
Morality is the differentiation among intentions, decisions, and actions between those that are good and bad . A moral code is a system of morality and a moral is any one practice or teaching within a moral code...
). They argued that whichever party could exploit their own strengths, and neutralize their opponent's, would prevail.
The authors traced the dichotomy in part to voter concerns about "law and order" in the 1960s. The concern grew as disorder became associated with racial tension, activism and college radicalism; and the people associated with those issues generally had liberal attitudes on sexual behavior and drug use. The authors argued that the electorate at the time did not share this kind of liberalism.
The authors noticed many Democrats took a liberal stance on what they called issues of law and order and permissiveness, and said that this could be potentially disastrous. They intended the book to be a warning to Democrats about the danger. They argued that the "real majority" was still economically liberal, but socially conservative. They advised Democrats that Republicans would increasingly garner votes based on "the Social Issue".
The Real Majority is often compared and contrasted with The Emerging Republican Majority, a book by Republican strategist Kevin Phillips
Kevin Phillips (political commentator)
Kevin Price Phillips is an American writer and commentator on politics, economics, and history. Formerly a Republican Party strategist, Phillips has become disaffected with his former party over the last two decades, and is now one of its most scathing critics...
which was released at the same time. Phillips concluded that the majority was inevitable, a conclusion Wattenberg and Scammon reject.
Reviews
Ruth Silva, a professor of political science at Pennsylvania State UniversityPennsylvania State University
The Pennsylvania State University, commonly referred to as Penn State or PSU, is a public research university with campuses and facilities throughout the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Founded in 1855, the university has a threefold mission of teaching, research, and public service...
, said the book was superior to Phillips' and called the book "must reading" for the far-left of the Democratic party, as well as Republicans and "every thoughtful citizen".
Impact
This book is sometimes reported to have inspired the 1970 and 1972 political strategies of the Nixon administration. However, while many saw parallels between the book's thesis and Nixon's decision to use patriotism and anti-permissiveness to appeal to the so-called "silent majoritySilent majority
The silent majority is an unspecified large majority of people in a country or group who do not express their opinions publicly. The term was popularized by U.S...
", Nixon had already chosen this course of action before the book was published. Nevertheless, Nixon welcomed the book as a useful and interesting analysis of trends he had already observed, and encouraged Republicans to read it. Secondly, as the book was intended as a warning to Democrats, Nixon saw it as encouragement to deliver his own message all the more forcefully to ensure it succeeded despite political opponents who were now more aware of what he was doing.