War cycles
Encyclopedia
The theory of war cycles holds that war
s happen in cycle
s.
's monumental A Study of War adding impetus to the discipline. The credibility of the study of cycles was frequently questioned, as this type of inquiry attracts persons with marginal credibility and interest in paranormal issues. However, with advent of computer algorithms minimizing the dampening effect affecting the abstracted oscillations and facilitating the detection of stochastic drift
s, the study of cycles is subject to renewed interest (see, e.g., *History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by Peter Turchin et al.. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5484010020).
In the judgment of the Nuremberg Tribunal, war of aggression is the supreme crime
, and there is hardly any other issue that is more relevant to the social sciences
than the study of the decision-making process when a person or a group of persons decides that another group of people must face death. Historians speculated about this decision-making process for centuries without reaching consensus, as wars are complex phenomena
with multiple determinant
s. The decision to initiate a war marks an inflection point of the war-peace
cycle, and the decision to cease hostilities marks the end of a particular cycle. Comparative studies of war cycles can contribute to explication of facets of this decision-making process. Most relevant of these facets are those that help us to identify the preventable factors influencing the decision to initiate (and to terminate) a war.
and the Confucian civilization of the East was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson
. Richardson's studies led him to the conclusion that "Confucian-Taoist-Buddhist religion
of China
stands out conspicuously as being either itself a pacifier, or else associated with one" and that "it seems probable that the comparative peacefulness of China prior to 1911 was the result of instruction, and in particular of Confucian instruction."
Richardson's findings were based on data spanning about a century. Study by Krus, Nelsen, & Webb (1998) lengthened his perspective for the wars of the Western civilization by about three centuries (Fig. 1) and for the Eastern Civilization by about 17 centuries (Fig. 2). In Fig. 2, the 220–618 time interval corresponds to the period in Chinese history called the Period of Disunion (also called the Chinese Dark Ages or six dynasties
), when Confucius' teachings were abandoned. Krus et al. (1998) concluded that "In the Empire of China, when the Confucian philosophy was predominant, the peace lasted significantly longer than in the West. When Confucian teachings were abandoned, the frequency of warfare approximated that observed for the Western countries."
For another comparative study that specifies a mathematical model of war cycles and tests it cross-culturally and cross-historically see Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Note that this study tries to connect the war cycles with long-term trend dynamics.
teachings of monotheistic
religions. These religious canons perhaps are effective in preventing violence by individuals, but appear less successful in preventing the collective violence.
Results of the comparative studies of the war cycles support Lewis Richardson's
observations of the relative peacefulness of China prior to 1911. Richardson asks the question:
Richardson's conclusions are echoed by Krus and Webb (2001):
Experience of a large segment of humanity over a time interval spanning millennia indicates that a peaceful civilization can exist without subscribing to religious precepts of monotheistic religions and that a secular ethic system, epitomized by that of Confucius
, is likely one of the factors lessening the probability of a decision to initiate a war.
War
War is a state of organized, armed, and often prolonged conflict carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression, social disruption, and usually high mortality. War should be understood as an actual, intentional and widespread armed conflict between political...
s happen in cycle
Social cycle theory
Social cycle theories are among the earliest social theories in sociology. Unlike the theory of social evolutionism, which views the evolution of society and human history as progressing in some new, unique direction, sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history...
s.
The cycles of war
The forerunner of the study of war cycles was Edward R Dewey, with Quincy WrightQuincy Wright
Philip Quincy Wright was an American political scientist known for his pioneering work and expertise in international law and international relations.- Biography :...
's monumental A Study of War adding impetus to the discipline. The credibility of the study of cycles was frequently questioned, as this type of inquiry attracts persons with marginal credibility and interest in paranormal issues. However, with advent of computer algorithms minimizing the dampening effect affecting the abstracted oscillations and facilitating the detection of stochastic drift
Stochastic drift
In probability theory, stochastic drift is the change of the average value of a stochastic process. A related term is the drift rate which is the rate at which the average changes. This is in contrast to the random fluctuations about this average value...
s, the study of cycles is subject to renewed interest (see, e.g., *History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by Peter Turchin et al.. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5484010020).
Inflection points of war cycles
Supreme crime
The concept of supreme crime is a legal principle that to initiate war not in self defense, called war of aggression in international law, but with the intent to conquer territory and subjugate other people, is more egregious than a normal crime. The term was introduced by Justice Robert H...
, and there is hardly any other issue that is more relevant to the social sciences
Social sciences
Social science is the field of study concerned with society. "Social science" is commonly used as an umbrella term to refer to a plurality of fields outside of the natural sciences usually exclusive of the administrative or managerial sciences...
than the study of the decision-making process when a person or a group of persons decides that another group of people must face death. Historians speculated about this decision-making process for centuries without reaching consensus, as wars are complex phenomena
Phenomenon
A phenomenon , plural phenomena, is any observable occurrence. Phenomena are often, but not always, understood as 'appearances' or 'experiences'...
with multiple determinant
Determinant
In linear algebra, the determinant is a value associated with a square matrix. It can be computed from the entries of the matrix by a specific arithmetic expression, while other ways to determine its value exist as well...
s. The decision to initiate a war marks an inflection point of the war-peace
Peace
Peace is a state of harmony characterized by the lack of violent conflict. Commonly understood as the absence of hostility, peace also suggests the existence of healthy or newly healed interpersonal or international relationships, prosperity in matters of social or economic welfare, the...
cycle, and the decision to cease hostilities marks the end of a particular cycle. Comparative studies of war cycles can contribute to explication of facets of this decision-making process. Most relevant of these facets are those that help us to identify the preventable factors influencing the decision to initiate (and to terminate) a war.
Comparative studies
Quantitative studies of bellicosity of the Western civilizationWestern world
The Western world, also known as the West and the Occident , is a term referring to the countries of Western Europe , the countries of the Americas, as well all countries of Northern and Central Europe, Australia and New Zealand...
and the Confucian civilization of the East was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson
Lewis Fry Richardson
Lewis Fry Richardson, FRS was an English mathematician, physicist, meteorologist, psychologist and pacifist who pioneered modern mathematical techniques of weather forecasting, and the application of similar techniques to studying the causes of wars and how to prevent them...
. Richardson's studies led him to the conclusion that "Confucian-Taoist-Buddhist religion
Religion
Religion is a collection of cultural systems, belief systems, and worldviews that establishes symbols that relate humanity to spirituality and, sometimes, to moral values. Many religions have narratives, symbols, traditions and sacred histories that are intended to give meaning to life or to...
of China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
stands out conspicuously as being either itself a pacifier, or else associated with one" and that "it seems probable that the comparative peacefulness of China prior to 1911 was the result of instruction, and in particular of Confucian instruction."
Richardson's findings were based on data spanning about a century. Study by Krus, Nelsen, & Webb (1998) lengthened his perspective for the wars of the Western civilization by about three centuries (Fig. 1) and for the Eastern Civilization by about 17 centuries (Fig. 2). In Fig. 2, the 220–618 time interval corresponds to the period in Chinese history called the Period of Disunion (also called the Chinese Dark Ages or six dynasties
Six Dynasties
Six Dynasties is a collective noun for six Chinese dynasties during the periods of the Three Kingdoms , Jin Dynasty , and Southern and Northern Dynasties ....
), when Confucius' teachings were abandoned. Krus et al. (1998) concluded that "In the Empire of China, when the Confucian philosophy was predominant, the peace lasted significantly longer than in the West. When Confucian teachings were abandoned, the frequency of warfare approximated that observed for the Western countries."
For another comparative study that specifies a mathematical model of war cycles and tests it cross-culturally and cross-historically see Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Note that this study tries to connect the war cycles with long-term trend dynamics.
Ethical canons
Pacific ethics of the Western civilization are based to a degree on ethicalEthics
Ethics, also known as moral philosophy, is a branch of philosophy that addresses questions about morality—that is, concepts such as good and evil, right and wrong, virtue and vice, justice and crime, etc.Major branches of ethics include:...
teachings of monotheistic
Monotheism
Monotheism is the belief in the existence of one and only one god. Monotheism is characteristic of the Baha'i Faith, Christianity, Druzism, Hinduism, Islam, Judaism, Samaritanism, Sikhism and Zoroastrianism.While they profess the existence of only one deity, monotheistic religions may still...
religions. These religious canons perhaps are effective in preventing violence by individuals, but appear less successful in preventing the collective violence.
Results of the comparative studies of the war cycles support Lewis Richardson's
Lewis Fry Richardson
Lewis Fry Richardson, FRS was an English mathematician, physicist, meteorologist, psychologist and pacifist who pioneered modern mathematical techniques of weather forecasting, and the application of similar techniques to studying the causes of wars and how to prevent them...
observations of the relative peacefulness of China prior to 1911. Richardson asks the question:
Richardson's conclusions are echoed by Krus and Webb (2001):
Experience of a large segment of humanity over a time interval spanning millennia indicates that a peaceful civilization can exist without subscribing to religious precepts of monotheistic religions and that a secular ethic system, epitomized by that of Confucius
Confucius
Confucius , literally "Master Kong", was a Chinese thinker and social philosopher of the Spring and Autumn Period....
, is likely one of the factors lessening the probability of a decision to initiate a war.
See also
- Alexander ChizhevskyAlexander ChizhevskyAlexander Chizhevsky was a Soviet-era interdisciplinary scientist, a biophysicist who founded “heliobiology” and “aero-ionization”...
- Dampening effect
- HistoriometryHistoriometryHistoriometry is the historical study of human progress or individual personal characteristics, using statistics to analyze references to geniuses, their statements, behavior and discoveries in relatively neutral texts...
- List of cycles
- Quantitative historyQuantitative historyQuantitative History is an approach to historical research that makes use of quantitative, statistical and computer tools. It is considered a branch of social science history and has three leading journals: Historical Methods , Social Science History , and the Journal of Interdisciplinary History...
- Social cycle theorySocial cycle theorySocial cycle theories are among the earliest social theories in sociology. Unlike the theory of social evolutionism, which views the evolution of society and human history as progressing in some new, unique direction, sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history...
- SociocyberneticsSociocyberneticsSociocybernetics is an independent chapter of science in sociology based upon the General Systems Theory and cybernetics.It also has a basis in Organizational Development consultancy practice and in Theories of Communication, theories of psychotherapies and computer sciences...
- Stochastic driftStochastic driftIn probability theory, stochastic drift is the change of the average value of a stochastic process. A related term is the drift rate which is the rate at which the average changes. This is in contrast to the random fluctuations about this average value...
- Supreme crimeSupreme crimeThe concept of supreme crime is a legal principle that to initiate war not in self defense, called war of aggression in international law, but with the intent to conquer territory and subjugate other people, is more egregious than a normal crime. The term was introduced by Justice Robert H...
- World systems theoryWorld Systems TheoryThe world-systems theory is a multidisciplinary, macro-scale approach to world history and social change....
Primary sources
- Krus, D.J., Nelsen, E.A. & Webb, J.M. (1998) "Recurrence of war in classical East and West civilizations". Psychological Reports 83, 139–143 (Request reprint).
- Krus, D. J. & Webb, J. M. (2001) "Für oder gegen ein militarisches Eingreifen: Ist die Einstellung zum Krieg eine Variable der Gesinnung oder des sitationsbedingten Gemütszustands?" Zeitschrift fur Sozialpsychologie und Gruppendynamik in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 26.Jg. Heft 2, 3–8 (Request reprint in English, in German).
- Richardson, L.F. (1960) Statistics of deadly quarrels. Pacific Grove, CA: Boxwood Press.
- Turchin, P. (2006) War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations. Pi Press.
- Wright, Q. (1965) A study of war (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.