A priori probability
Encyclopedia
The term a priori probability is used in distinguishing the ways in which values for probabilities can be obtained. In particular, an "a priori probability" is derived purely by deductive reasoning
. One way of deriving a priori probabilities is the principle of indifference
, which has the character of saying that, if there are N mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and if they are equally likely, then the probability of a given event occurring is 1/N. Similarly the probability of one of a given collection of K events is K/N.
One disadvantage of defining probabilities in the above way is that it applies only to finite collections of events.
In Bayesian inference
, a priori probabilities are known as "uninformative priors" or "objective priors"; note that "prior probability
" is a broader concept.
Deductive reasoning
Deductive reasoning, also called deductive logic, is reasoning which constructs or evaluates deductive arguments. Deductive arguments are attempts to show that a conclusion necessarily follows from a set of premises or hypothesis...
. One way of deriving a priori probabilities is the principle of indifference
Principle of indifference
The principle of indifference is a rule for assigning epistemic probabilities.Suppose that there are n > 1 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive possibilities....
, which has the character of saying that, if there are N mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and if they are equally likely, then the probability of a given event occurring is 1/N. Similarly the probability of one of a given collection of K events is K/N.
One disadvantage of defining probabilities in the above way is that it applies only to finite collections of events.
In Bayesian inference
Bayesian inference
In statistics, Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference. It is often used in science and engineering to determine model parameters, make predictions about unknown variables, and to perform model selection...
, a priori probabilities are known as "uninformative priors" or "objective priors"; note that "prior probability
Prior probability
In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity p is the probability distribution that would express one's uncertainty about p before the "data"...
" is a broader concept.