Asian Century - AbsoluteAstronomy.com

The Asian Century is a term used to describe the belief that, if certain demographic and economic trends persist, the 21st century will be dominated by Asia

Asia

Asia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres. It covers 8.7% of the Earth's total surface area and with approximately 3.879 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current human population...

n politics and culture, as the 20th century is sometimes referred to as the American Century

American Century

American Century is a term used to describe the United States' dominance of much of the 20th century, in political, economic and cultural terms. The United States' influence grew throughout the 20th century, but became especially dominant after the end of World War II, when only two superpowers...

, and the 19th century the British Century

British Empire

The British Empire comprised the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates and other territories ruled or administered by the United Kingdom. It originated with the overseas colonies and trading posts established by England in the late 16th and early 17th centuries. At its height, it was the...

Origin

The phrase Asian Century arose in the mid to late 1980s, and is attributed to a 1988 meeting with People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China

China , officially the People's Republic of China , is the most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion citizens. Located in East Asia, the country covers approximately 9.6 million square kilometres...

(PRC) leader Deng Xiaoping

Deng Xiaoping

Deng Xiaoping was a Chinese politician, statesman, and diplomat. As leader of the Communist Party of China, Deng was a reformer who led China towards a market economy...

and India

India

India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...

n Prime Minister

Prime Minister of India

The Prime Minister of India , as addressed to in the Constitution of India — Prime Minister for the Union, is the chief of government, head of the Council of Ministers and the leader of the majority party in parliament...

Rajiv Gandhi

Rajiv Ratna Gandhi was the sixth Prime Minister of India . He took office after his mother's assassination on 31 October 1984; he himself was assassinated on 21 May 1991. He became the youngest Prime Minister of India when he took office at the age of 40.Rajiv Gandhi was the elder son of Indira...

. Prior to this, it made an appearance in a 1985 US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

The United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations is a standing committee of the United States Senate. It is charged with leading foreign-policy legislation and debate in the Senate. The Foreign Relations Committee is generally responsible for overseeing and funding foreign aid programs as...

hearing. It has been subsequently reaffirmed by Asian political leaders, and is now a popularly used term in the media.

Reasons

Asia's robust economic performance over the three decades preceding 2010, compared to that in the rest of the world, made perhaps the strongest case yet for the possibility of an Asian Century. Although this difference in economic performance had been recognized for some time, specific individual setbacks (e.g., the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis) tended to hide the broad sweep and general tendency. By the early 21st century, however, a strong case could be made that this stronger Asian performance was not just sustainable but held a force and magnitude that could significantly alter the distribution of power on the planet. Coming in its wake, global leadership in a range of significant areas—international diplomacy, military strength, technology, and soft power

Soft power

Soft power is the ability to obtain what one wants through co-option and attraction. It can be contrasted with 'hard power', that is the use of coercion and payment...

—might also, as a consequence, be assumed by one or more of Asia's nation states.

Demographics

Population growth in Asia is expected to continue through at least the first half of the 21st century, though it has slowed significantly since the late 20th century. At four billion people in the beginning of the 21st century, the Asian population is predicted to grow to more than five billion by 2050. While its percent of the world population is not expected to greatly change, North American and European shares of the global population are expected to decline.

Economics

One major reason for the belief in a coming Asian Century is the remarkable economic growth in Asia, and the continuing growth rates. Since China's economic reforms in the late 1970s (in farm privatization) and early 1990s (in most cities), the Chinese economy

Economy of the People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China ranks since 2010 as the world's second largest economy after the United States. It has been the world's fastest-growing major economy, with consistent growth rates of around 10% over the past 30 years. China is also the largest exporter and second largest importer of...

has enjoyed three decades of economic growth rates between 8 and 10%

Historical GDP of the People's Republic of China

This article includes a list of China's historical gross domestic product values, the market value of all final goods and services produced by a nation in a given year. The GDP dollar estimates presented here are calculated at market or government official exchange rates and derived from...

. The Indian economy began a similar albeit slower ascent at the end of 1980s and early 1990s, and has averaged around 4% during this period, though growing slightly over 8% in 2005, and hitting 9.2% in 2006 before slowing to 6% in 2009, then reaching 8.9% in 2010.

Shujie Yao of Nottingham University explains that, "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's nominal GDP will likely overtake that of Japan by 2009 or 2010. Also Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is an American multinational bulge bracket investment banking and securities firm that engages in global investment banking, securities, investment management, and other financial services primarily with institutional clients...

report predicts that "from 2007 to 2020, India’s GDP per capita will quadruple," and that the Indian economy will surpass the United States by 2043, but India "will remain a low-income country for several decades, with per capita incomes well below its other BRIC

BRIC

In economics, BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development...

peers. If India

India

fulfills its growth potential, it can become a motor for the world economy, and a key contributor to generating spending growth".

Both of these developments involved policy of a degree of managed liberalisation of the economy as well as a turning outwards of the economy towards globalization

Globalization

Globalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...

(both exports and attracting inward investment). The magnitude of this liberalisation and globalisation is still subject to debate. They were part of conscious decisions by key political leaders, especially in India and the PRC. Also, the populations of the two countries offer a potential market of over two and a quarter billion. The development of the internal consumer market in these two countries has been a major basis for economic development. This has enabled much higher national growth rates for mainland China and India in comparison to Japan

Japan

Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...

, the EU and even the US

United States

The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

. The international cost advantage on goods and services, based on cheaper labor costs, has enabled these two countries to exert a global competitive pressure.

The term Easternization has been used to refer to the spread of oriental(mainly Japanese) management techniques to the West.

The trend for greater Asian economic dominance has also been based on the extrapolations of recent historic economic trends. Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

, in its BRIC

BRIC

In economics, BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development...

economic forecast, highlighted the trend towards mainland China becoming the largest and India the second largest economies by the year 2050 in terms of GDP. The report also predicted the type of industry that each nation would dominate, leading some to deem mainland China 'the industrial workshop of the world' and India 'one of the great service societies'. As of 2009, majority of the countries that are considered newly industrialized are in Asia

By 2050, the East Asian and South Asian economies will have increased by over 20 times. With that comes a rise in Human Development Index

Human Development Index

The Human Development Index is a composite statistic used to rank countries by level of "human development" and separate "very high human development", "high human development", "medium human development", and "low human development" countries...

, the index used to measure the standards of living. India's HDI will approach .8. East Asia's would approach .94 or fairly close to the living standards of the western nations such as the EU and the US

United States

The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

This would mean that it would be rather difficult to determine the difference in wealth of the two. Because of East Asian and Indian populations, their economy would be very large, and if current trends continue, India's long-term population could approach double that of China. East Asia could surpass all western nations' combined economies as early as 2030. South Asia could soon follow if the hundreds of millions in poverty continue to be lifted into middle class.

Construction projects

It is projected that the most groundbreaking construction projects will take place in Asia within the approaching years. As a symbol of economic power

Economic power

There is no agreed-upon definition of power in economics. At least five definitions of power have been used:*Purchasing power, i.e., the ability of any amount of money to buy goods and services. Those with more assets, or, more correctly, net worth, have more power of this sort...

, supertall skyscraper

Skyscraper

A skyscraper is a tall, continuously habitable building of many stories, often designed for office and commercial use. There is no official definition or height above which a building may be classified as a skyscraper...

s have been erected in Asia, and more projects are currently being conceived and begun in Asia than in any other region of the world. Completed projects include: the Petronas Towers of Kuala Lumpur

Kuala Lumpur

Kuala Lumpur is the capital and the second largest city in Malaysia by population. The city proper, making up an area of , has a population of 1.4 million as of 2010. Greater Kuala Lumpur, also known as the Klang Valley, is an urban agglomeration of 7.2 million...

, the Shanghai World Financial Center

Shanghai World Financial Center

The most distinctive feature in the design of the building is an aperture at the peak. The original design specified a circular aperture, in diameter, to reduce the stresses of wind pressure, as well as serve as a subtext for the design, since "Chinese mythology represents the earth with a square...

, International Finance Centre

International Finance Centre

The International Finance Centre is an integrated commercial development on the waterfront of Hong Kong's Central District....

in Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Hong Kong is one of two Special Administrative Regions of the People's Republic of China , the other being Macau. A city-state situated on China's south coast and enclosed by the Pearl River Delta and South China Sea, it is renowned for its expansive skyline and deep natural harbour...

, Taipei 101

Taipei 101

Taipei 101 , formerly known as the Taipei World Financial Center, is a landmark skyscraper located in Xinyi District, Taipei, Taiwan. The building ranked officially as the world's tallest from 2004 until the opening of the Burj Khalifa in Dubai in 2010...

in Taiwan

Taiwan

Taiwan , also known, especially in the past, as Formosa , is the largest island of the same-named island group of East Asia in the western Pacific Ocean and located off the southeastern coast of mainland China. The island forms over 99% of the current territory of the Republic of China following...

, and the Burj Khalifa in Dubai

Dubai

Dubai is a city and emirate in the United Arab Emirates . The emirate is located south of the Persian Gulf on the Arabian Peninsula and has the largest population with the second-largest land territory by area of all the emirates, after Abu Dhabi...

, UAE. Future buildings promise to be taller, like the Shanghai Tower India tower

India Tower

India Tower is a 126-storey, tall skyscraper that was under construction in the city of Mumbai, India. Construction was halted in 2011....

Culture

Culturally, the Asian century is symbolized by Indian

Cinema of India

The cinema of India consists of films produced across India, which includes the cinematic culture of Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. Indian films came to be followed throughout South Asia and...

genre films, Hong Kong

Cinema of Hong Kong

The cinema of Hong Kong is one of the three major threads in the history of Chinese language cinema, alongside the cinema of China, and the cinema of Taiwan...

genre films, Japanese Animation

Anime

is the Japanese abbreviated pronunciation of "animation". The definition sometimes changes depending on the context. In English-speaking countries, the term most commonly refers to Japanese animated cartoons....

, and the Korean Wave

Korean wave

The Korean Wave, also known as the Hallyu , refers to spread of South Korean culture around the world. The term was coined in China in mid-1999 by Beijing journalists surprised by the fast growing popularity of Korean entertainment and culture in China...

. The awareness of the different Asian cultures may be a part of a much more culturally aware world, as proposed in the Clash of Civilizations

Clash of Civilizations

The Clash of Civilizations is a theory, proposed by political scientist Samuel P. Huntington, that people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post-Cold War world....

thesis. Equally, the affirmation of Asian cultures has an impact on the identity politics of Asians in Asia and outside in the Asian diaspora

Diaspora

A diaspora is "the movement, migration, or scattering of people away from an established or ancestral homeland" or "people dispersed by whatever cause to more than one location", or "people settled far from their ancestral homelands".The word has come to refer to historical mass-dispersions of...

s.

The Gross National Cool of Japan is soaring; Japanese cultural products, including TV shows, are undoubtedly “in” among American audiences and have been for years. About 2.3 million people studied the language worldwide in 2003: 900,000 South Koreans, 389,000 Chinese, 381,000 Australians, and 140,000 Americans study Japanese in lower and higher educational institutions.

Feng Shui books topped the nonfiction best-seller lists and Feng Shui schools have multiplied. Major banks and multinational corporations admit to employing Feng Shui consultants to advise them on the organization of their offices. There has been a readiness to supplement eastern forms of medicine, therapy, and massage and reject traditional western medicine in favor of techniques, such as acupressure and acupuncture. And practices such as moxibustion

Moxibustion

Moxibustion is a traditional Chinese medicine therapy using moxa, or mugwort herb. It plays an important role in the traditional medical systems of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Tibet, and Mongolia. Suppliers usually age the mugwort and grind it up to a fluff; practitioners burn the fluff or...

and shiatsu

Shiatsu

Shiatsu is Japanese for "finger pressure;" it is a type of alternative medicine consisting of finger and palm pressure, stretches, and other massage techniques. There is no scientific evidence proving that shiatsu can treat any disease, but shiatsu practitioners promote it as a way to help people...

enjoy enormous popularity in the west. So too for that matter, do virtually all the Eastern martial arts, such as Judo, Karate, Aikido, Taekwondo, Kendo, Jujitsu, Tai Ji, Qigong, Ba Gua, and Xing Yi, together with their many associated schools and subforms.
Even the smallest town in Britain, Scandinavia, or the United States generally has at least one Indian or Chinese restaurant

Though the use of English

English language

English is a West Germanic language that arose in the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms of England and spread into what was to become south-east Scotland under the influence of the Anglian medieval kingdom of Northumbria...

continues to spread, Asian languages are also becoming more popular to teach and study outside of the continent. The study of Chinese

Chinese language

The Chinese language is a language or language family consisting of varieties which are mutually intelligible to varying degrees. Originally the indigenous languages spoken by the Han Chinese in China, it forms one of the branches of Sino-Tibetan family of languages...

has recently gained greater attention in the United States, owing to a growing belief in the economic advantages of knowing it. It is also being encouraged through PRC's support of Confucius Institute

Confucius Institute

Confucius Institutes are non-profit public institutions that aim to promote Chinese language and culture, support local Chinese teaching internationally, as well as facilitating cultural exchanges. They are sometimes compared to language and culture promotion organizations such as France's...

s, which have opened in numerous nations to teach the Chinese language

Chinese language

and culture.

Chinese has been rated as the second most used language on the internet with nearly a quarter speaking Chinese, Japanese came as fourth, and Korean as the tenth as of 2010. According to the CIA, China is the country that hosts the most users, Japan the third, India the fourth, and South Korea as the tenth as of 2008.

India has the largest film industry in the world, Bollywood produces even more films than Hollywood. Bollywood sold 3.6 billion tickets, 1 billion more tickets than Hollywood. Bollywood's annual growth is at 12.6%, higher than Hollywood's 5.6%.

There has been a rapid rise of what has been called the animal rights movement, and also in the growth of vegetarianism which stem from the principle of Ahimsa in the religions of Hinduism, Buddhism, and especially Jainism. In the past popular sports of cockfighting and bull, bear, and badger baiting. What is more such conduct was not considered un-Christian or unethical in any way.

In the early years of the twentieth century very few people indeed were vegetarians. The figure given for the United Kingdom during World War 2 was a mere 100,000 out of a population of some 50 million...around 0.2 percent of the total. However, by the 1990s the figure was estimated as between 4.2 percent and 11 percent of the British population, and rising rapidly (Cohen, 1999). As Porritt and Winner observe, as recently as the sixties and early seventies, "being a vegetarian was considered distinctively odd", but "it is now both respectable and common place".

Religion

As recently as the 1950s, Crane Brinton, the distinguished historian of ideas, could dismiss "modern groups that appeal to Eastern wisdom" as being in effect "sectarian", "marginal", and "outside the main current of Western thought and feeling". Yet many westerners have converted to Eastern religions or at least have shown an interest in them. An example is Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, whom the Beatles followed, first to Bangor in Wales in 1967, and subsequently to India to study Transcendental Meditation in 1968. The Dalai Lama, whose book The Art of Happiness became a best-seller, can attract huge crowds in New York's Central Park or London's Wembley Stadium.

Buddhism in some countries is the second biggest religion.
FWBO is one of the biggest and fastest-growing Buddhist organizations in the West.

Belief in Reincarnation has never been a part of official Christian or Jewish teaching, or at least, in the former case, it has been a formal heresy since it was rejected by a narrow margin at the Second Council of Constantinople in AD 553. However nearly all polling in Western countries reveals quite high levels of this belief. "Puzzled People" undertaken in the 1940s suggested that only 4 percent of people in Britain believed in reincarnation. Geoffrey Gorer's survey, carried out a few years later, arrived at 5 percent (1955, p. 262). However, this figure had reached 18 percent by 1967 (Gallup, 1993), only to increase further to a sizable 29 percent by 1979, a good six-fold increase on the earlier "Puzzled People" figure. Eileen Barker has reported that around one-fifth of Europeans now say that they believe in reincarnation.

Politics

The global political position of China and to a lesser extent India has risen in international bodies and amongst the world powers, leading the United States

United States

The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...

and European Union

European Union

The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...

to become more active in the process of engagement with these two countries. China is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Although India is not a permanent member, it is possible that it will become one or at the least gain a more influential position. Japan is also attempting to become a permanent member, though the attempts of both are opposed by other Asian countries (i.e. India's bid is opposed by Pakistan; Japan's bid is opposed by China, South Korea, North Korea).

An Asian regional bloc may be further developed in the 21st century around ASEAN and other bodies on the basis of free trade agreements. However, there is some political concern amongst the national leaderships of different Asian countries about PRC's hegemonic ambitions in the region. Another new organization, the East Asian Summit, could also possibly create an EU-like trade zone.

The Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov

Yevgeny Primakov

Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov is a Russian politician and diplomat. During his long career, he served as the Russian Foreign Minister, Prime Minister of Russia, Speaker of the Soviet of the Union of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, and chief of intelligence service...

encouraged the idea of a triple alliance between Russia

Russia

Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...

, the PRC and India first formulated by Indian strategist Madhav Das Nalapat

Madhav Das Nalapat

Madhav Das Nalapat , holds the UNESCO Peace Chair and is Professor of Geopolitics at Manipal University, an international private university headquartered in Southern India. The former Coordinating Editor of the Times of India, Prof. Nalapat writes extensively on security, policy and international...

in 1983, and supported the idea of a multipolar

Polarity in international relations

Polarity in international relations is any of the various ways in which power is distributed within the international system. It describes the nature of the international system at any given period of time. One generally distinguishes four types of systems: Unipolarity, Bipolarity, Tripolarity, and...

world. With the November 2006 visit of Hu Jintao

Hu Jintao

Hu Jintao is the current Paramount Leader of the People's Republic of China. He has held the titles of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China since 2002, President of the People's Republic of China since 2003, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission since 2004, succeeding Jiang...

to India, the idea seems to be gaining some momentum.

Criticism

Despite forecasts that predict the rising economic and political strength of Asia, the idea of an Asian Century has faced criticism. This has included the possibility that the continuing high rate of growth could lead to revolution

Revolution

A revolution is a fundamental change in power or organizational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time.Aristotle described two types of political revolution:...

, economic slumps

Recession

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way...

, and environmental problems, especially in mainland China. Some believe that the 21st century will be multipolar

Polarity in international relations

, and no one country or continent will have such a concentration of influence. However some proponents of the Asian Century respond that since the two most populous countries (China and India) are in Asia then it's only natural that they will play a bigger role in the world's affairs than smaller countries and thus it won't be a multipolar century. Finally, although the British Empire was a superpower during the nineteenth century, controlling nearly a quarter of the world's area and population, during the 20th century there was still a balance of political power with the British

British Empire

and other European colonial empires from 1900 until 1945, and with the US and the Soviet Union

Soviet Union

The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....

from 1945 until 1991. However, this is why proponents of the Asian Century don't think one country will dominate world affairs, just that Asia will, primarily China and India. But even today Japan and South Korea are also rather important partly because both are world leaders in information technology

External links

Speeches and Political Statements

2003 Speech by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee

growth 2005 Speech by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

"Strong China-India relations to usher in true Asian century: Premier Wen" Comment by PRC Premier Wen Jiabao
"President Addresses Asia Society, Discusses India and Pakistan" US President George Bush calls 21st century not Asian Century, but Freedom's Century
"India's power is infinite" PRC Commerce Minister Bo Xilai the future growth and cooperation of India and mainland China, 2006

Forecasts

NIC 2020 Mapping the Global Future
BRIC Thesis-pdf
"Welcome To The Asian Century..." by Jeffrey Sachs

Criticism

"China, India Superpower? Not so Fast!"
"Asian Century" an editorial contrasting the American Century versus the Asian Century.

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Origin

Reasons

Demographics

Economics

Construction projects

Culture

Religion

Politics

Criticism

See also

External links