Attractiveness principle
Encyclopedia
Attractiveness Principle is one of System Dynamics
archetypes. System archetypes describe common patterns of behavior in dynamic complex systems
. Attractiveness principle is a variation of Limits to Growth
archetype, with restrictions caused by multiple limits. The limiting factors here are each of different character and usually cannot be dealt with the same way and/or (and very likely) they cannot be all addressed.
. If managers are able to recognize the archetype in a problem it often helps them to solve it with less cost and they are also often able to change its structure
.
and stock and flow diagram for the insight into model fundamentals.
The Reinforcing Loop (R1 in Figure 1 and 2) represents accelerating growth – a growing action is producing results. This is a positive feedback loop – the more the growing action taken, the higher the results level, and yet the result itself produces even more of growing action.
Balancing loops (B1 and B2 in Figure 1 and 2) represent the way the system turns back to its original state. Result produced in the reinforcing loop is influenced within the balancing loop. There are (at least) two limits causing the slowing actions in the system and adding to them. Limiting actions start to influence the system at various levels of results, generally. Since that moment slowing actions act in the system simultaneously. Both the slowing actions contribute to the total slowing action. Total slowing action then inhibits the results (this process is delayed in time).
If we get back to the reinforcing loop then we can see the inhibited results are reducing growing action which is leading to the reduced results again.
s must be calculated to decide which ones of limits to focus on and address first. The one that is more attractive in terms of future benefit to the results should be chosen to be dealt with. It is necessary to compare the future situations after removing each of the slowing actions and their values in terms of reaching the desired result. But not only the one that will have a greater impact should be chosen but a possible synergetic effect
when removing interdependent limits should be considered when making a decision.
You can also run the Simgua Attractiveness principle model.
where they are all equally attractive, no matter the population class. Let attractivity be the overall rating of a city in terms of its desirability for potential inhabitants. If a city has high attractivity people move to this city, which increases the prices of housing which is getting scarce, cause overloading of job opportunities (leading to unemployment), the environmental stress is rising, city getting overcrowded etc. These changes demonstrate the impact of the movement as of an equalizing process which makes the mentioned city less and less attractive – to the (idealized) point when no one wants to move to it anymore.
We can illustrate this situation by Forester’s words:
As stated by Richard C. Duncan
, using Forrester’s Word dynamics model to predict the behavior of Third World
countries shows that it is not possible to stop the immigration from these countries to USA as these countries can never reach the USA’s level of geographical attractiveness (and so there always will be a tendency to immigrate).
It is important to have in mind that dynamic complexity is very often counterintuitive – cause and effect are distant in time and space, but decision-makers rather tend to look for causes “near” their effects. The solution is not to concentrate on the symptoms of the problem, but on its causes.
(1990). The Fifth Discipline. Currency. ISBN 0-385-26095-4.
Senge, P.
et al. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Doubleday Currency.
Forrester, J. W. (1971, 1973). World Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: Wright Allen Press.
Forrester, Jay W. (1969). Urban Dynamics. Pegasus Communications. ISBN 1883823390.
Forrester, J. W. (1975). Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.
Sterman, John D.
(2000). Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw Hill. 22. ISBN 0-07-231135-5.
Mildeová, Stanislava and Vojtko, Viktor (2003). Systémová dynamika. Oeconomica. 39. ISBN 80-245-0626-2.
The Systems Thinker. Pegasus Communications, Inc. Waltham, MA.
System dynamics
System dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system. What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use...
archetypes. System archetypes describe common patterns of behavior in dynamic complex systems
Complex systems
Complex systems present problems in mathematical modelling.The equations from which complex system models are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of systems of nature that are considered...
. Attractiveness principle is a variation of Limits to Growth
Limits to Growth
The Limits to Growth is a 1972 book modeling the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies, commissioned by the Club of Rome. Its authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The book used the World3 model to...
archetype, with restrictions caused by multiple limits. The limiting factors here are each of different character and usually cannot be dealt with the same way and/or (and very likely) they cannot be all addressed.
Brief Introduction to the Problem
Attractiveness principle is a concept that incorporates the fact that any product or kind of business cannot ever be “all things to all people” though companies very often strive to follow this way. One needs to make necessary decisions on the characteristics of the product as it cannot be perfect in all dimensions. If she doesn’t, the product is not going to be successful as of the natural constraints (limited resources) it will have to face – sooner or later. It is a fact of life that (assuming we know the relationships among the system’s elements) we can influence, inhibit or remove some of these limits through making expert changes in the system. The archetype can help us to get the insight into the system behavior so we could identify and decide which limiting factors to inhibit before they inhibit the results we want to achieve. But there will always be some limits we are not able to reduce and simply “we have to learn to live with them” and make compromises between our goals.Application Field
Knowledge of the attractiveness principle system archetype is essential in management of various projects and businesses. Managers decide which problem is more attractive in terms of possible future improvement of the company – the origin of the archetype’s name actually came from this point. Manager as a decision-maker needs efficient support in solving such complex problems, and system dynamics can play this role. Its main advantage is the ability to reach higher complexity and to provide simultaneous calculations. These can be used to determine the future possible behavior of the systemSystem
System is a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole....
. If managers are able to recognize the archetype in a problem it often helps them to solve it with less cost and they are also often able to change its structure
Structure
Structure is a fundamental, tangible or intangible notion referring to the recognition, observation, nature, and permanence of patterns and relationships of entities. This notion may itself be an object, such as a built structure, or an attribute, such as the structure of society...
.
History
The term attractiveness principle was first used by inventor of system dynamics Jay W. Forrester. According to Forrester, the only way to control growth is to control attractiveness. Other references on this topic can be found in The Systems Thinker and in The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook in articles and parts by Michael Goodman and Art Kleiner.The Structure
The system is made up of a reinforcing loop and at least two balancing loops. See causal loop diagramCausal loop diagram
A causal loop diagram is a causal diagram that aids in visualizing how interrelated variables affect one another. The diagram consists of a set of nodes representing the variables connected together...
and stock and flow diagram for the insight into model fundamentals.
The Reinforcing Loop (R1 in Figure 1 and 2) represents accelerating growth – a growing action is producing results. This is a positive feedback loop – the more the growing action taken, the higher the results level, and yet the result itself produces even more of growing action.
Balancing loops (B1 and B2 in Figure 1 and 2) represent the way the system turns back to its original state. Result produced in the reinforcing loop is influenced within the balancing loop. There are (at least) two limits causing the slowing actions in the system and adding to them. Limiting actions start to influence the system at various levels of results, generally. Since that moment slowing actions act in the system simultaneously. Both the slowing actions contribute to the total slowing action. Total slowing action then inhibits the results (this process is delayed in time).
If we get back to the reinforcing loop then we can see the inhibited results are reducing growing action which is leading to the reduced results again.
Trade-offs
Trade-offTrade-off
A trade-off is a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another quality or aspect...
s must be calculated to decide which ones of limits to focus on and address first. The one that is more attractive in terms of future benefit to the results should be chosen to be dealt with. It is necessary to compare the future situations after removing each of the slowing actions and their values in terms of reaching the desired result. But not only the one that will have a greater impact should be chosen but a possible synergetic effect
Synergy
Synergy may be defined as two or more things functioning together to produce a result not independently obtainable.The term synergy comes from the Greek word from , , meaning "working together".-Definitions and usages:...
when removing interdependent limits should be considered when making a decision.
System Behavior
Graphs in Figure 3 and 4 show the results of simulation in Simgua simulation tool.You can also run the Simgua Attractiveness principle model.
Project management example
There is a project with a negative impact of a risk. Some people were taken of off the team, there are unexpected changes in the project content and the economic circumstances have changed, too. The indicators of its quality, schedule and costs need to be kept up. Management’s task is to allocate the resources as well as possible in terms of the project’s indicators. Due to the fact he resources are limited it is necessary to make tradeoffs among opportunities.Attractiveness of geographical areas
Jay W. Forrester studied the attractiveness principle of geographical areas. He states that all the places in the world tend to the equilibriumEquilibrium
Equilibrium is the condition of a system in which competing influences are balanced. The word may refer to:-Biology:* Equilibrioception, the sense of a balance present in human beings and other animals...
where they are all equally attractive, no matter the population class. Let attractivity be the overall rating of a city in terms of its desirability for potential inhabitants. If a city has high attractivity people move to this city, which increases the prices of housing which is getting scarce, cause overloading of job opportunities (leading to unemployment), the environmental stress is rising, city getting overcrowded etc. These changes demonstrate the impact of the movement as of an equalizing process which makes the mentioned city less and less attractive – to the (idealized) point when no one wants to move to it anymore.
We can illustrate this situation by Forester’s words:
- To illustrate the attractiveness principle, imagine for a moment the ideal city. Perhaps the ideal city would be one with readily available housing at low cost, a surplus of jobs at high wages, excellent schools, no smoke or pollution, housing located near one's place of work, no crime, beautiful parks, cultural opportunities, and to this list the reader can add his own preferences. Suppose such a city existed. What would happen? It would be perceived as the ideal place to live. People from everywhere would move into the ideal city until the advantages had been so swamped by rising population that the city would offer no net attractiveness compared with other locations.
As stated by Richard C. Duncan
Richard C. Duncan
Richard Duncan is chief author of the Olduvai theory, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering and a PhD in Systems Engineering from the University of Washington. He has taught engineering, worked for Lear Jet and Boeing, and worked in...
, using Forrester’s Word dynamics model to predict the behavior of Third World
Third World
The term Third World arose during the Cold War to define countries that remained non-aligned with either capitalism and NATO , or communism and the Soviet Union...
countries shows that it is not possible to stop the immigration from these countries to USA as these countries can never reach the USA’s level of geographical attractiveness (and so there always will be a tendency to immigrate).
Effective Strategies
Here is a list of possible effective strategies to deal with Attractiveness principle in praxis based on.- Knowing the growth is limited is the first step.
- The insight is complicated by mutual interaction of limits, so analysis of their relation should be a priority. Such an analysis can also reveal possible synergies that can be achieved by allocating resources to carefully chosen limits.
- Consider replacing limited resources by another ones.
- Dominant strategy is to monitor the limits and using tradeoff analysis for deciding which of them it is convenient to reduce or remove to obtain desired results.
- Define the acceptable level of (un)attraction.
- Slowing actions are not usually appearing at the same time so it is important to manage them through the time.
- Try to inhibit the limits before they even start to act like limits.
- As limits start to have impact on various levels of results it is important to keep the right timing – intercept the moment when the limit starts playing its role but not waste the resources to avoid its impact unless it is necessary.
It is important to have in mind that dynamic complexity is very often counterintuitive – cause and effect are distant in time and space, but decision-makers rather tend to look for causes “near” their effects. The solution is not to concentrate on the symptoms of the problem, but on its causes.
Further reading
Senge, PeterPeter Senge
Peter Michael Senge is an American scientist and director of the Center for Organizational Learning at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He is known as author of the book The Fifth Discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization from 1990...
(1990). The Fifth Discipline. Currency. ISBN 0-385-26095-4.
Senge, P.
Peter Senge
Peter Michael Senge is an American scientist and director of the Center for Organizational Learning at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He is known as author of the book The Fifth Discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization from 1990...
et al. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Doubleday Currency.
Forrester, J. W. (1971, 1973). World Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: Wright Allen Press.
Forrester, Jay W. (1969). Urban Dynamics. Pegasus Communications. ISBN 1883823390.
Forrester, J. W. (1975). Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.
Sterman, John D.
John Sterman
John David Sterman is the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, and the current director of the MIT System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He is also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute. He is mostly considered as the current leader of the System...
(2000). Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw Hill. 22. ISBN 0-07-231135-5.
Mildeová, Stanislava and Vojtko, Viktor (2003). Systémová dynamika. Oeconomica. 39. ISBN 80-245-0626-2.
The Systems Thinker. Pegasus Communications, Inc. Waltham, MA.