OPLAN 5029
Encyclopedia
OPLAN 5029 is a proposed military operation plan by the United States
and South Korea
for dealing with "sudden change" in North Korea
, such as a coup d’etat, revolution
, large scale defection
s, outflow of weapons of mass destruction
, South Korean hostage incident within North Korea, or major natural disaster
. While no permanent version of OPLAN 5029 is known to be in effect, South Korea has repeatedly stated it adheres to the current conceptual plan (CONPLAN 5029) and the United States has said it is preparing concrete plans for collapse scenarios.
Online reports indicate that China
also has plans on the subject.
, commander of United States Forces Korea
, acknowledged the existence of a scenario and plan by ROK-US Combined Forces Command involving the collapse of North Korea, stating "it would be unusual if we didn't have one."
In early 2005, the South Korean National Security Council vetoed an American proposal to upgrade CONPLAN 5029's general course of action to the specific military plans of an operational plan, where the United States would have command over South Korean military assets in the event of a North Korean collapse. South Korean officials rejected the plan over fears it might limit "South Korea's exercise of its sovereignty," though American officials argued it would be necessarily for securing sensitive nuclear and military facilities as well as protecting the general public. In June 2005, South Korean Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung
and US Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld
agreed to further "improve and develop" the concept plan.
Throughout late 2008, in response to rumors of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
being in poor health, references were made to response plans. Discussions in October between US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Sang-hee
over the planned transition of wartime operations to South Korean forces also included continued formulation of an operation plan for a North Korean collapse, after a proposal made in an earlier meeting between the American
and South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff
. In a speech to the Korea Retired Generals and Admirals Association, U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Walter Sharp announced that response plans to a variety of situations involving North Korea, including instability and regime change, had been prepared. The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency
responded by claimed that "the U.S. and the South Korean war-like forces [had] openly held an anti-DPRK military confab at which they agreed to 'rapidly dispatch reinforcements in contingency'" and claimed "U.S. belligerent forces would be well advised not to misjudge the army of Songun
and the will of the DPRK but stop their reckless moves for a new war."
Many have speculated on the importance of securing North Korea's nuclear weapons program
to prevent their use against South Korea or being used towards nuclear terrorism
. South Korean and American officials have stated that American forces would most likely take the lead on securing nuclear material, before and after the planned transfer of wartime operations, though South Korean troops would also be able to aid in matters of nuclear, chemical, and biological materials.
Another unknown is what plans China is assumed to have prepared in the event of a North Korean collapse. With the different circumstances that could lead to either a gradual or sudden collapse, it is unknown whether a Chinese response would be to support the current regime, act in accordance with an international effort, or intervene militarily out of concern for refugees, unsecured nuclear technology, or regional influence.
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
and South Korea
South Korea
The Republic of Korea , , is a sovereign state in East Asia, located on the southern portion of the Korean Peninsula. It is neighbored by the People's Republic of China to the west, Japan to the east, North Korea to the north, and the East China Sea and Republic of China to the south...
for dealing with "sudden change" in North Korea
North Korea
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea , , is a country in East Asia, occupying the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. Its capital and largest city is Pyongyang. The Korean Demilitarized Zone serves as the buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea...
, such as a coup d’etat, revolution
Revolution
A revolution is a fundamental change in power or organizational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time.Aristotle described two types of political revolution:...
, large scale defection
Defection
In politics, a defector is a person who gives up allegiance to one state or political entity in exchange for allegiance to another. More broadly, it involves abandoning a person, cause or doctrine to whom or to which one is bound by some tie, as of allegiance or duty.This term is also applied,...
s, outflow of weapons of mass destruction
Weapons of mass destruction
A weapon of mass destruction is a weapon that can kill and bring significant harm to a large number of humans and/or cause great damage to man-made structures , natural structures , or the biosphere in general...
, South Korean hostage incident within North Korea, or major natural disaster
Natural disaster
A natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard . It leads to financial, environmental or human losses...
. While no permanent version of OPLAN 5029 is known to be in effect, South Korea has repeatedly stated it adheres to the current conceptual plan (CONPLAN 5029) and the United States has said it is preparing concrete plans for collapse scenarios.
Online reports indicate that China
People's Republic of China
China , officially the People's Republic of China , is the most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion citizens. Located in East Asia, the country covers approximately 9.6 million square kilometres...
also has plans on the subject.
History
In August 1999, General John H. Tilelli, Jr.John H. Tilelli, Jr.
John Harold Tilelli, Jr. is a retired United States Army four star general who served as Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Army from 1994 to 1995; Commanding General, United States Army Forces Command from 1995 to 1996; and Commander in Chief, United Nations Command/Commander in Chief,...
, commander of United States Forces Korea
United States Forces Korea
United States Forces Korea refers to the ground, air and naval divisions of the United States armed forces stationed in South Korea....
, acknowledged the existence of a scenario and plan by ROK-US Combined Forces Command involving the collapse of North Korea, stating "it would be unusual if we didn't have one."
In early 2005, the South Korean National Security Council vetoed an American proposal to upgrade CONPLAN 5029's general course of action to the specific military plans of an operational plan, where the United States would have command over South Korean military assets in the event of a North Korean collapse. South Korean officials rejected the plan over fears it might limit "South Korea's exercise of its sovereignty," though American officials argued it would be necessarily for securing sensitive nuclear and military facilities as well as protecting the general public. In June 2005, South Korean Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung
Yoon Kwang-ung
Yoon Kwang-ung is a former South Korean Minister of National Defense. He held the 39th to hold the post, which he entered in July 2004 after being appointed by president Roh Moo-hyun. He graduated from Busan Commercial High School in 1961 and from the ROK Naval Academy in 1966...
and US Secretary of Defense
United States Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of Defense is the head and chief executive officer of the Department of Defense of the United States of America. This position corresponds to what is generally known as a Defense Minister in other countries...
Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Rumsfeld
Donald Henry Rumsfeld is an American politician and businessman. Rumsfeld served as the 13th Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 under President Gerald Ford, and as the 21st Secretary of Defense from 2001 to 2006 under President George W. Bush. He is both the youngest and the oldest person to...
agreed to further "improve and develop" the concept plan.
Throughout late 2008, in response to rumors of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il
Kim Jong-il
Kim Jong-il, also written as Kim Jong Il, birth name Yuri Irsenovich Kim born 16 February 1941 or 16 February 1942 , is the Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea...
being in poor health, references were made to response plans. Discussions in October between US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Sang-hee
Lee Sang-Hee
General Lee Sang-hee, ROKA, was the 32nd Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces and the 41st Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense....
over the planned transition of wartime operations to South Korean forces also included continued formulation of an operation plan for a North Korean collapse, after a proposal made in an earlier meeting between the American
Joint Chiefs of Staff
The Joint Chiefs of Staff is a body of senior uniformed leaders in the United States Department of Defense who advise the Secretary of Defense, the Homeland Security Council, the National Security Council and the President on military matters...
and South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff
Joint Chiefs of Staff (Republic of Korea)
Joint Chiefs of Staff of Republic of Korea is a group of Chiefs from each major branch of the armed services in the Republic of Korea Armed Forces. Unlike his/her United States counterpart, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has Operational Control over all military personnel of the Armed...
. In a speech to the Korea Retired Generals and Admirals Association, U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Walter Sharp announced that response plans to a variety of situations involving North Korea, including instability and regime change, had been prepared. The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency
Korean Central News Agency
The Korean Central News Agency is the state news agency of North Korea and has existed since December 5, 1946. KCNA is headquartered in the capital city of Pyongyang...
responded by claimed that "the U.S. and the South Korean war-like forces [had] openly held an anti-DPRK military confab at which they agreed to 'rapidly dispatch reinforcements in contingency'" and claimed "U.S. belligerent forces would be well advised not to misjudge the army of Songun
Songun
Sŏn'gun, often spelled Songun, is North Korea's "Military First" policy, which prioritizes the Korean People's Army in the affairs of state and allocates national resources to the army first...
and the will of the DPRK but stop their reckless moves for a new war."
Scenarios
A great deal of speculation exists on the outcome of a North Korean collapse, owing to the lack of a detailed operational plan, the circumstances that would lead to an intervention in North Korea, and the choices available to a wide range of actors.Many have speculated on the importance of securing North Korea's nuclear weapons program
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
North Korea has declared that it has nuclear weapons and is believed by many to have nuclear weapons. The CIA assesses that North Korea also has a substantial arsenal of chemical weapons...
to prevent their use against South Korea or being used towards nuclear terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Nuclear terrorism denotes the use, or threat of the use, of nuclear weapons or radiological weapons in acts of terrorism, includingattacks against facilities where radioactive materials are present...
. South Korean and American officials have stated that American forces would most likely take the lead on securing nuclear material, before and after the planned transfer of wartime operations, though South Korean troops would also be able to aid in matters of nuclear, chemical, and biological materials.
Another unknown is what plans China is assumed to have prepared in the event of a North Korean collapse. With the different circumstances that could lead to either a gradual or sudden collapse, it is unknown whether a Chinese response would be to support the current regime, act in accordance with an international effort, or intervene militarily out of concern for refugees, unsecured nuclear technology, or regional influence.