Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006
Encyclopedia
Liberal Party of Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada , colloquially known as the Grits, is the oldest federally registered party in Canada. In the conventional political spectrum, the party sits between the centre and the centre-left. Historically the Liberal Party has positioned itself to the left of the Conservative...
and opposition Conservative Party of Canada
Conservative Party of Canada
The Conservative Party of Canada , is a political party in Canada which was formed by the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada in 2003. It is positioned on the right of the Canadian political spectrum...
. Prior to and throughout much of the campaign, the Liberals held a small lead over the Conservatives; as of early January 2006, the Conservatives had taken the lead. This was confirmed on election day
Canadian federal election, 2006
The 2006 Canadian federal election was held on January 23, 2006, to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons of the 39th Parliament of Canada. The Conservative Party of Canada won the greatest number of seats: 40.3% of seats, or 124 out of 308, up from 99 seats in 2004, and 36.3% of votes:...
when the Conservatives won a plurality of votes and seats, being empowered to form a minority government
Minority government
A minority government or a minority cabinet is a cabinet of a parliamentary system formed when a political party or coalition of parties does not have a majority of overall seats in the parliament but is sworn into government to break a Hung Parliament election result. It is also known as a...
in the 39th Canadian Parliament
39th Canadian Parliament
The 39th Canadian Parliament was in session from April 3, 2006 until September 7, 2008. The membership was set by the 2006 federal election on January 23, 2006, and it has changed only somewhat due to resignations and by-elections...
.
Summary
In the leadup to the 2006 federal election, several opinion pollOpinion poll
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence...
s were commissioned to gauge the voting intentions of Canadians
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
, particularly in the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission
Gomery Commission
The Gomery Commission, formally the Commission of Inquiry into the Sponsorship Program and Advertising Activities, was a federal Canadian Royal Commission headed by the retired Justice John Gomery for the purpose of investigating the sponsorship scandal, which involved allegations of corruption...
on 7 April 2005. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals, which encouraged the Conservatives
Conservative Party of Canada
The Conservative Party of Canada , is a political party in Canada which was formed by the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada in 2003. It is positioned on the right of the Canadian political spectrum...
to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion
Motion of no confidence
A motion of no confidence is a parliamentary motion whose passing would demonstrate to the head of state that the elected parliament no longer has confidence in the appointed government.-Overview:Typically, when a parliament passes a vote of no...
. However, Liberal support recovered following an agreement with the New Democratic Party
New Democratic Party
The New Democratic Party , commonly referred to as the NDP, is a federal social-democratic political party in Canada. The interim leader of the NDP is Nycole Turmel who was appointed to the position due to the illness of Jack Layton, who died on August 22, 2011. The provincial wings of the NDP in...
(NDP) to support some changes to the federal budget and a number of incidents involving Conservative Member of Parliament
Member of Parliament
A Member of Parliament is a representative of the voters to a :parliament. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, the term applies specifically to members of the lower house, as upper houses often have a different title, such as senate, and thus also have different titles for its members,...
(MP) Gurmant Grewal
Gurmant Grewal
Gurmant Singh Grewal, is a Canadian politician and former Conservative Party of Canada Member of Parliament. Gurmant and his wife, Nina Grewal, were the first married couple to serve in the Canadian House of Commons at the same time...
that hurt the Conservatives. Consistently since the Brault testimony, the polls have indicated that an election would result in an increase in the number of seats for the Bloc Québécois
Bloc Québécois
The Bloc Québécois is a federal political party in Canada devoted to the protection of Quebec's interests in the House of Commons of Canada, and the promotion of Quebec sovereignty. The Bloc was originally a party made of Quebec nationalists who defected from the federal Progressive Conservative...
and NDP, and cyclical gains and losses for the Conservatives inversely to the Liberals.
In November 2005, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public; subsequently, the poll numbers for the Liberals again dropped. Just days later, a new poll (Strategic Counsel: 6 November 2005) showed the Liberals were already bouncing back. On 28 November 2005, the minority Liberal government succumbed to another Conservative non-confidence motion supported by the three opposition parties and the writs for an election were dropped. The Conservatives achieved near parity but, early in the campaign, again fell back behind the Liberals. Renewed accusations of corruption
Political corruption
Political corruption is the use of legislated powers by government officials for illegitimate private gain. Misuse of government power for other purposes, such as repression of political opponents and general police brutality, is not considered political corruption. Neither are illegal acts by...
and impropriety at the end of 2005 – amid Royal Canadian Mounted Police
Royal Canadian Mounted Police
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police , literally ‘Royal Gendarmerie of Canada’; colloquially known as The Mounties, and internally as ‘The Force’) is the national police force of Canada, and one of the most recognized of its kind in the world. It is unique in the world as a national, federal,...
(RCMP) criminal probes concerning possible government leaks regarding income trust
Income trust
An income trust is an investment that may hold equities, debt instruments, royalty interests or real properties. The trust can receive interest, royalty or lease payments from an operating entity carrying on a business, as well as dividends and a return of capital.The main attraction of income...
tax changes and advertising sponsorships
Sponsorship scandal
The sponsorship scandal, "AdScam", "Sponsorship" or Sponsorgate, is a scandal that came as a result of a Canadian federal government "sponsorship program" in the province of Quebec and involving the Liberal Party of Canada, which was in power from 1993 to 2006...
– led to an upswing of Conservative support again and gave them a lead over the Liberals, portending a possible change in government.
Polling figures for the NDP increased slightly, while Bloc figures experienced a slight dip; figures for the Green Party
Green Party of Canada
The Green Party of Canada is a Canadian federal political party founded in 1983 with 10,000–12,000 registered members as of October 2008. The Greens advance a broad multi-issue political platform that reflects its core values of ecological wisdom, social justice, grassroots democracy and...
did not change appreciably throughout the campaign.
Poll results
The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.| Polling Firm | Date | Link | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | BQ | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election 2006 Canadian federal election, 2006 The 2006 Canadian federal election was held on January 23, 2006, to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons of the 39th Parliament of Canada. The Conservative Party of Canada won the greatest number of seats: 40.3% of seats, or 124 out of 308, up from 99 seats in 2004, and 36.3% of votes:... |
January 23, 2006 | HTML | 30.2 | 36.3 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 |
| | | |||||||
| Strategic Counsel | January 22, 2006 | 27 | 37 | 19 | 11 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 22 | 30.1 | 36.4 | 17.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | |
| Ipsos-Reid Ipsos-Reid Ipsos Reid is a research company based in Canada and is the Canadian arm of the global Ipsos Group. Founded in Winnipeg in 1979, the company expanded across the country and became part of the Ipsos Group in 2000.... |
January 22 | HTML | 27 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 4 |
| Nanos Research | January 21 | 28.1 | 37.0 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 21 | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 20 | 29.4 | 36.2 | 17.3 | 11.0 | 6.1 | |
| EKOS EKOS Research Associates EKOS Research Associates Inc. is a Canadian social and economic research company founded by Carleton University graduate Frank Graves. They specialize in market research, public opinion research, strategic communications advice, program evaluation and performance measurement, and human resources... |
January 20 | 26.9 | 37.1 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | |
| EKOS | January 20 | 24.4 | 38.4 | 19.8 | 11.9 | 5.4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid Ipsos-Reid Ipsos Reid is a research company based in Canada and is the Canadian arm of the global Ipsos Group. Founded in Winnipeg in 1979, the company expanded across the country and became part of the Ipsos Group in 2000.... |
January 19 | HTML | 26 | 38 | 19 | 11 | 5 |
| EKOS | January 19 | 27.0 | 37.1 | 19.7 | 11.2 | 4.5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 19 | 28 | 38 | 17 | 11 | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | January 19 | 29.0 | 35.5 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 5.6 | |
| EKOS | January 19 | 27.3 | 37.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 3.9 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 18 | 28 | 37 | 16 | 12 | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | January 18 | 30.7 | 37.0 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | |
| EKOS | January 18 | 29.3 | 35.1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | |
| Leger Marketing Léger Marketing Leger Marketing is the largest solely Canadian owned polling and market research firm in Canada with 650 employees, including 103 professionals. Leger Marketing provides access to Canadian and American markets... |
January 17 | 29 | 38 | 17 | 11 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | January 17 | 25 | 41 | 17 | 12 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 17 | 31.5 | 36.9 | 17.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | |
| EKOS | January 17 | 27.2 | 36.9 | 19.6 | 11.0 | 4.8 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 16 | 24 | 42 | 17 | 12 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 16 | 30 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 4 | |
| EKOS | January 16 | 29.6 | 35.8 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 3.4 | |
| Decima Research Decima Research Decima Research is a public opinion and market research company in Canada, founded in 1979 by Progressive Conservative Party of Canada strategist Allan Gregg.... |
January 15 | 27 | 37 | 18 | 11 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | January 15 | HTML | 26 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 5 |
| Strategic Counsel | January 15 | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 15 | 29 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 5 | |
| EKOS | January 15 | 27.2 | 38.6 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | |
| Nanos Research | January 14 | 30 | 38 | 17 | 10 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 14 | 27 | 40 | 16 | 11 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 13 | 29 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 7 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 12 | 28 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 6 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | January 12 | HTML | 29 | 37 | 18 | 10 | 5 |
| Nanos Research | January 12 | 31 | 40 | 14 | 10 | 6 | |
| EKOS | January 12 | 28.3 | 37.6 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 3.7 | |
| EKOS | January 12 | 27.4 | 38.1 | 18.1 | 11.5 | 4.5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 11 | 27 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 11 | 29 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 5 | |
| EKOS | January 11 | 28.8 | 36.3 | 17.9 | 13.3 | 2.8 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 10 | 28 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 10 | 30 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 4 | |
| EKOS | January 10 | 29.9 | 37.1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.2 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 9 | 28 | 38 | 16 | 12 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 9 | 31 | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | |
| EKOS | January 9 | 26.8 | 39.1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 5.4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | January 8 | HTML | 26 | 37 | 18 | 13 | 5 |
| Decima Research | January 8 | 27 | 36 | 20 | 11 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 8 | 31 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 8 | 29 | 37 | 15 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 7 | 32 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 6 | 32 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 6 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | January 5 | HTML | 31 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 5 |
| EKOS | January 5 | 30.8 | 36.0 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 4.7 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 5 | 31 | 33 | 17 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 5 | 33 | 34 | 17 | 11 | 5 | |
| Leger Marketing | January 4 | 32 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 4 | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 4 | 33 | 35 | 15 | 12 | 5 | |
| EKOS | January 4 | 30.4 | 36.2 | 17.9 | 10.4 | 4.7 | |
| Strategic Counsel | January 3 | 32 | 32 | 17 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 3 | 33 | 36 | 15 | 13 | 4 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 31, 2005 | |33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 30 | 35 | 35 | 14 | 13 | 4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 30 | HTML | 32 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 5 |
| Decima Research | December 30 | 32 | 30 | 18 | 14 | ||
| Nanos Research | December 29 | 35 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 28 | |38 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 23 | 38 | 31 | 15 | 12 | 5 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 22 | HTML | 33 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 5 |
| Strategic Counsel | December 22 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 22 | 39 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 5 | |
| Environics | December 21 | HTML | 35 | 30 | 17 | 12 | 5 |
| Strategic Counsel | December 21 | 33 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 5 | |
| Leger Marketing | December 21 | 36 | 28 | 17 | 12 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 21 | 37 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 20 | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 20 | 37 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 19 | 33 | 29 | 17 | 15 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 19 | 37 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 18 | 34 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 5 | |
| Pollara Pollara Pollara is a Canadian public opinion and research company. Founded as Insight Canada Research in the early 1980s by current owner and chairman, Michael Marzolini, the company name was changed in 1997 to Pollara.... |
December 19 | HTML | 37 | 34 | 17 | 10 | |
| Nanos Research | December 18 | |38 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 17 | |38 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 16 | |39 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 15 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 15 | |39 | 33 | 12 | 12 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 14 | 34 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 14 | |39 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 5 | |
| Leger Marketing | December 13 | 35 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 13 | 34 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 13 | 38 | 31 | 14 | 12 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 12 | 33 | 31 | 17 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 12 | |38 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 5 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 11 | HTML | 36 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 5 |
| Pollara | December 11 | HTML | 38 | 30 | 15 | 12 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 11 | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 11 | |39 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 4 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 10 | 35 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 10 | |39 | 32 | 14 | 13 | 4 | |
| Decima Research | December 9 | 36 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 9 | 39 | 30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 8 | 36 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 8 | 41 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 8 | HTML | 34 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 |
| Leger Marketing | December 7 | 39 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 7 | 36 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 7 | 40 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 4 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 6 | 35 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 6 | 40 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |
| Decima Research | December 5 | 34 | 26 | 20 | 14 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | December 5 | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 5 | 38 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 4 | 35 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 4 | 37 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 5 | |
| Strategic Counsel | December 3 | 34 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 3 | 38 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 2 | 36 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 5 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | December 1 | HTML | 33 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 5 |
| Strategic Counsel | December 1 | 35 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | December 1 | 37 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 5 | |
| EKOS | December 1 | 34.1 | 27.4 | 18.4 | 14.0 | 6.0 | |
| Strategic Counsel | November 30 | 35 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 5 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 28 | HTML | 31 | 31 | 18 | 15 | 5 |
| Decima Research | November 28 | 36 | 28 | 19 | 12 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | November 27 | 35 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 5 | |
| Pollara | November 27 | HTML | 36 | 31 | 16 | 14 | |
| Environics | November 25 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 1 | |
| EKOS | November 24 | 38.7 | 29.4 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 3.0 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 24 | HTML | 34 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 5 |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 15 | 36 | 27 | 16 | 13 | 6 | |
| Decima Research | November 14 | 33 | 26 | 22 | 13 | ||
| Pollara | November 13 | 36 | 28 | 20 | |||
| Nanos Research | November 13 | 34 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 10 | 34 | 28 | 19 | 14 | 4 | |
| EKOS | November 9 | 33.0 | 27.9 | 20.9 | 13.1 | 4.9 | |
| Leger Marketing | November 8 | 34 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 7 | |
| Decima Research | November 7 | 33 | 30 | 20 | 14 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | November 6 | 35 | 28 | 16 | 13 | 8 | |
| Strategic Counsel | November 3 | 28 | 31 | 20 | 13 | 7 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | November 2 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 13 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | October 27 | 40 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | October 27 | 38 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 5 | |
| Pollara | October 17 | 38 | 30 | 17 | |||
| Decima Research | October 17 | 35 | 29 | 17 | 13 | ||
| Environics | October 16 | 38 | 27 | 20 | 10 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | October 13 | 38 | 25 | 15 | 14 | ||
| Pollara | October 2 | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | September 29 | 37 | 27 | |17 | 14 | 4 | |
| Decima Research | September 26 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 13 | ||
| Praxicus | September 23 | 33 | 29 | 20 | |||
| Strategic Counsel | September 13 | 35 | 28 | 17 | 13 | 7 | |
| Leger Marketing | September 11 | 40 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 5 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | August 22 | 36 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | August 15 | 36 | 28 | 17 | |||
| Nanos Research | August 8 | 39 | 25 | 19 | 13 | ||
| Environics | July 28 | HTML | 34 | 31 | 20 | 11 | |
| Decima Research | July 25 | 39 | 24 | 19 | 14 | ||
| Pollara | July 18 | 38 | 27 | 15 | 13 | ||
| Strategic Counsel | July 16 | 35 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 7 | |
| Pollara | June 28 | 36 | 29 | 18 | 11 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | June 28 | 35 | 27 | 18 | 13 | 6 | |
| Decima Research | June 20 | 37 | 25 | 20 | 13 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | June 20 | 34 | 29 | 16 | 12 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | June 11 | 34 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 9 | |
| Pollara | June 6 | 38 | 27 | 19 | 13 | ||
| Decima Research | June 5 | 37 | 23 | 21 | 13 | ||
| Decima Research | May 22 | 36 | 27 | 21 | 13 | ||
| Leger Marketing | May 22 | HTML | 38 | 27 | 17 | 12 | 4 |
| Ipsos-Reid | May 20 | 34 | 28 | 17 | |||
| 6 | |||||||
| Strategic Counsel | May 18 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 6 | |
| COMPAS | May 17 | 29 | 38 | 17 | 13 | ||
| EKOS | May 17 | 34.7 | 28.3 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 5.6 | |
| Environics | May 17 | 33 | 31 | 22 | 10 | ||
| Decima Research | May 15 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 14 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | May 14 | 27 | 31 | 19 | 13 | 6 | |
| Strategic Counsel | May 10 | 27 | 31 | 20 | 14 | 7 | |
| Decima Research | May 8 | 37 | 28 | 18 | 12 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | May 7 | 32 | 31 | 16 | 12 | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | May 5 | 36.1 | 29.5 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.3 | |
| Pollara | May 4 | 31 | 36 | 17 | 15 | ||
| Decima Research | May 2 | 32 | 29 | 20 | 15 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | April 30 | 30 | 33 | 17 | 12 | 5 | |
| EKOS | April 28 | 32.5 | 30.5 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | |
| GPC P.A. | April 28 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 13 | 10 | |
| Strategic Counsel | April 28 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 10 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | April 26 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | |
| Decima Research | April 24 | 27 | 32 | 21 | 15 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | April 22 | 30 | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | |
| Pollara | April 21 | 31 | 35 | 18 | 12 | ||
| Nanos Research | April 18 | 31.6 | 37.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 3.8 | |
| Decima Research | April 17 | 28 | 35 | 18 | 14 | ||
| Ipsos-Reid | April 15 | 27 | 36 | 15 | 10 | 2 | |
| COMPAS | April 14 | 30 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 1 | |
| Environics | April 14 | 27 | 33 | 24 | 11 | 2 | |
| Environics | April 12 | 36 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 4 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | April 12 | 27 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 7 | |
| Decima Research | April 10 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 14 | ||
| EKOS | April 9 | 25.0 | 36.2 | 20.5 | 12.6 | 5.0 | |
| Ipsos-Reid | April 9 | 34 | 30 | 15 | 10 | ||
| | | |||||||
| Last election Canadian federal election, 2004 The Canadian federal election, 2004 , was held on June 28, 2004 to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons of the 38th Parliament of Canada. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Paul Martin lost its majority, but was able to form a minority government after the elections... |
28 June 2004 | HTML | 36.7 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 12.4 | 4.3 |
- Strategic Counsel polls from November 27 onwards are multi-day polls. Each new poll removes approximately 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
- Nanos polls from December onwards are 3-day polls. Each new poll removes the 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
- Various EKOS polls contain results from a single night of polling only. They have fewer respondents than most other polls and, thus, EKOS notes that they are not as credible; however, they are intended to provide a general indication of daily polling trends.
- This Compas poll was taken over the course of a single day.
- Polling for this data mostly occurred before Jean Brault's Gomery Inquiry testimony was released.
NB: The margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
in these surveys is typically between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys. Note also that because these figures are national percentages, they may not reflect the expected number of seats won by each party. Indeed, the sample size in many polls is not sufficient to give a statistically accurate prediction in individual ridings, and hence the expected number of seats.
All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone. The major companies claim a typical response rate is between 20 and 35 percent. link
Seat predictions
Several websites, polling firms and notable Canadians devised various method of projecting the final election result. Included below are those cited in Andrew CoyneAndrew Coyne
James Andrew Coyne is the national editor for Maclean's, a weekly national newsmagazine in Canada. Previously, he was a columnist with the National Post and an editor-in-chief of the University of Manitoba's newspaper, The Manitoban.-Background:Coyne was born in Ottawa, Ontario, the son of Hope...
's blog
Blog
A blog is a type of website or part of a website supposed to be updated with new content from time to time. Blogs are usually maintained by an individual with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video. Entries are commonly displayed in...
. http://andrewcoyne.com/2006/01/last-call.php
| Projector | Conservative | Liberal | NDP | BQ | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results HTML | 124 | 103 | 29 | 51 | 1 |
| ElectionPrediction.org | 118 | 104 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
| democraticSPACE.com | 128 | 94 | 29 | 56 | 1 |
| UBC University of British Columbia The University of British Columbia is a public research university. UBC’s two main campuses are situated in Vancouver and in Kelowna in the Okanagan Valley... Election Stock Market Stock market A stock market or equity market is a public entity for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price; these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion... http://esm.ubc.ca/CA06/index.php |
127 | 93 | 33 | 54 | 1 |
| jord.ca | 135 | 72 | 38 | 62 | 1 |
| Loblaw Election Pool | 136 | 89 | 26 | 57 | 0 |
| Laurier University Wilfrid Laurier University Wilfrid Laurier University is a university located in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. It also has campuses in Brantford, Ontario, Kitchener, Ontario and Toronto, Ontario and a future proposed campus in Milton, Ontario. It is named in honour of Sir Wilfrid Laurier, the seventh Prime Minister of Canada.... http://info.wlu.ca/lispop/main.htm |
140 | 78 | 33 | 56 | 1 |
| Andrew Coyne http://andrewcoyne.com/2006/01/what-it-is-what-it-shall-be.php | 140 | 81 | 31 | 54 | 2 |
| TrendLines Federal & Provincial Riding Projections | 140 | 75 | 35 | 57 | 1 |
| ElectionPolls | 141 | 79 | 30 | 58 | 1 |
| PinnacleSports.com | 146 | 74 | 31 | 57 | 0 |
| Ipsos-Reid Ipsos-Reid Ipsos Reid is a research company based in Canada and is the Canadian arm of the global Ipsos Group. Founded in Winnipeg in 1979, the company expanded across the country and became part of the Ipsos Group in 2000.... http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2949 |
148-152 | 62-66 | 34-38 | 56-60 | |
External links
- Letter from the Editor in ChiefTony BurmanTony Burman is the Velma Rogers Graham Research Chair at Ryerson University in Toronto, Canada.Previously, he served as Al Jazeera's chief strategic advisor for the Americas, 2010-2011, based in Washington DC. He also served as managing director of the Al Jazeera English network, based in Doha,...
of CBC NewsCBC NewsCBC News is the department within the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation responsible for the news gathering and production of news programs on CBC television, radio and online services...
entitled, "Beyond polls: Shining a light on public policy" (16 January 2006). Feedback requested. - Election Prediction Project
- Pollingreport.ca
- Election Almanac - Canada Federal Election
- democraticSPACE Poll Projections
- democraticSPACE Predictions
- Nomination Watch
- Politics Canada
- Hill and Knowlton election predictor
- Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online
- Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy: Votes Into Seats: House Projection