Overshoot (ecology)
Encyclopedia
In ecology
Ecology
Ecology is the scientific study of the relations that living organisms have with respect to each other and their natural environment. Variables of interest to ecologists include the composition, distribution, amount , number, and changing states of organisms within and among ecosystems...

, overshoot occurs when a population exceeds the long term carrying capacity
Carrying capacity
The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment...

 of its environment. The consequence of overshoot is called a crash or die-off. An attempt to apply this concept to human experience is Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, by William R. Catton, Jr.
William R. Catton, Jr.
William R. Catton, Jr. is an American sociologist best known for his scholarly work inenvironmental sociology and human ecology. His intellectual approach is broad and interdisciplinary. Catton's repute extends beyond academic social science due primarily to his 1980 book, . Catton has written...

 Also see Limits to growth: The 30-year update, by Meadows, Randers & Meadows, which updates the 1974 book, The Limits to Growth. The Limits to Growth simulation showed in several scenarios how overshoot could happen based on an assumption of hard limits to resources, but did not deal with questions of substitution of limited resources with renewable resource
Renewable resource
A renewable resource is a natural resource with the ability of being replaced through biological or other natural processes and replenished with the passage of time...

s.

Compare to the overshoot of a signal
Overshoot (signal)
In signal processing, control theory, electronics, and mathematics, overshoot is when a signal or function exceeds its target. It arises especially in the step response of bandlimited systems such as low-pass filters...

, where a signal exceeds its steady state
Steady state
A system in a steady state has numerous properties that are unchanging in time. This implies that for any property p of the system, the partial derivative with respect to time is zero:...

 value.

The eradication of disease can trigger overshoot when a population suddenly exceeds the land's carrying capacity. An example of this occurred on the Horn of Africa
Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa is a peninsula in East Africa that juts hundreds of kilometers into the Arabian Sea and lies along the southern side of the Gulf of Aden. It is the easternmost projection of the African continent...

 when smallpox
Smallpox
Smallpox was an infectious disease unique to humans, caused by either of two virus variants, Variola major and Variola minor. The disease is also known by the Latin names Variola or Variola vera, which is a derivative of the Latin varius, meaning "spotted", or varus, meaning "pimple"...

 was eliminated. A region that had supported around 1 million pastoralists for centuries was suddenly expected to support 14 million people. The result was overgrazing
Overgrazing
Overgrazing occurs when plants are exposed to intensive grazing for extended periods of time, or without sufficient recovery periods. It can be caused by either livestock in poorly managed agricultural applications, or by overpopulations of native or non-native wild animals.Overgrazing reduces the...

, which led to soil erosion.
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