Paul the Octopus
Encyclopedia
Paul the Octopus was a common octopus
from Weymouth, England. Paul lived in a tank at a commercial attraction, the Sea Life Centre
in Oberhausen
, Germany and became internationally famous after his feeding behaviour was used to correctly predict the winner of each of the Germany national football team
's seven matches in the 2010 FIFA World Cup
, as well as the outcome of the final
.
The prediction process was designed so that Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel
, each box marked on the outside with the flag of a national football team in a forthcoming match. His choice of which mussel to eat first was interpreted as indicating his prediction of a win for the country whose flag was on that box.
Selections by the octopus were correct in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and were correct in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. The octopus also correctly selected a win for Spain
against the Netherlands
in the World Cup Final on 11 July
by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag
on it. These predictions were 100% (8/8) correct for the World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall.
However, the keeper at the aquarium stated that Paul was not the same octopus that predicted the results for the 2008 UEFA European Football Championships. Octopus Paul was retired after the 2010 World Cup, and died the following October.
reported claims made in a Bild article (later republished by the Italian press) that Paul the Octopus had in fact been caught in April 2010, by Verena Bartsch, off the island of Elba
in the Mediterranean Sea
. Another claim points to Sète
in Southern France, according to a French national TV channel.
His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen
: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.
According to DPA
, local businessmen in O Carballiño
, a town in Galicia, Spain, collectively raised around €30,000 as a "transfer fee" to have Paul as the main attraction of the local Festa do Polbo
festival. Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not as a menu item. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nonetheless.
After accusations of betrayal by the German newspaper Westfälische Rundschau, the Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
jokingly said he would send a team of bodyguards to protect Paul, while the environment minister Elena Espinosa
said she would give Paul protection under conservation laws so that Germans would not eat him.
. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany
, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first and ate the contents of, was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.
Paul's apparent success was considered by some academic commentators to be simply comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin
; this analogy was made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath
, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University
in Paris.
Assuming that the choices were not biased by a hidden variable, and assuming that the octopus was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw
, the octopus had a 1/2 chance of predicting any single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and of course only the successful animal gains public attention after the fact.
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final. Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%.
Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 World Cup
matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia
, Ghana
, England
, Argentina
, Spain
, and Uruguay
. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook. Paul's keeper, Oliver Walenciak, responded by saying "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."
Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed. The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten. In response, Spanish prime minister
José Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastián called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain. Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands
in the final
(beating several rival animal psychics, most notably Mani the Parakeet
who incorrectly predicted that the Netherlands would beat Spain) as well as Germany's win over Uruguay in the third-place playoff, and subsequently went into retirement.
Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England; after that he made four correct predictions. The chance of those final four predictions being correct is (1/2)4 = 6.25% (odds 16 to 1).
José Mérida, a data analyst from Guatemala City
, used a coin tossing model to calculate that only 178 individuals are needed to have a greater than 50% chance of someone correctly predicting all the winners from a series of 8 matches; and points out that there were certainly thousands and thousands of individuals all over the world attempting to make these predictions during the 2010 World Cup.
, it is necessary to first be sure that bias
of various kinds were not influencing Paul's choices. Etienne Roquain admitted that chance was not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices, and said that the octopus could have been choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on the animal's attraction to the design of the countries' flags, or the superior quality of individual food items that were offered.
The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue
. In this case, individuals would still be able to distinguish brightness
as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham, research lecturer at the School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University
, suggested that they are drawn to horizontal shapes. Daniel Fey, a Sea Life Aquarium spokesman suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on 6 July, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.
Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he's able to recognise flags." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag. Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle
Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."
Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and smell the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions. Bisikov states that Paul could be easily trained to choose the right box by smell though of course the "right" box is not apparent until after the match is completed, whereas all Paul's predictions are made before the match begins. According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose – although his choices were all made before each match began and while the result was not known.
Another potential bias may have been spatial preference or related factors such as light intensity. On six out of eight predictions for the World Cup the octopus chose the right-hand box (from the camera point of view), skipping the boxes with the Australian and, later, English flags.
Both of these flags are very distinctive from the horizontal stripes pattern he always chose. Also in both predictions of German loss, Paul chose the right-hand boxes with the flags of Serbia and Spain, which are very similar in shape to the German flag usually preferred. Thus a combination of spatial and shape preference may have formed the prediction bias. Paul's keepers put the first team as officially listed by FIFA
in the left-hand box, the second team listed by FIFA in the right-hand box, for all predictions.
Theories to explain his behavior could have been systematically tested if Paul had repeated his selection many times, but he only selected one box per game. A real scientific experiment would have been more vigilant about attempting to eliminate possible sources of bias, including the flag visuals and any differences in the preparation (such as for example the size or freshness) of the individual food items.
Another popular application called Pulpo Paul went online soon after the World Cup. A song for Paul was made on YouTube and was played on CNN
when they did a report on Paul.
Iran
ian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized the reporting of Paul several times during a speech in Tehran
, which took place in the weekend of 24–25 July 2010. Ahmadinejad accused the West of using the octopus to spread "western propaganda and superstition," and lamented western decadence
.
In December, Paul was placed 100th in BBC Three
's list of The Most Annoying People of 2010
for correctly predicting the 2010 FIFA World Cup results.
garnished with his favourite food – mussels.
On 20 August 2010, Paul was given the position as an official "ambassador" to England's 2018 World Cup bid.
Zoo
in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine
picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus
spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay
, Jimmy the Peruvian guinea-pig and Anton the tamarin
eating a raisin
representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet
of Singapore, Octopus Pauline of Holland, Octopus Xiaoge of Qingdao
China, Chimpanzee
Pino and Red River Hog
Apelsin in Tallinn zoo
Estonia picked the Netherlands to win the final. Crocodile Harry of Australia picked Spain to win.
Paul II was caught in the waters near Montpellier
, France. Paul II was kept in quarantine for two months before being moved into the tank which previously housed Paul. According to Stefan Porwoll, the aquarium manager, Paul II was meant to interact with Paul the Octopus, but Paul died while Paul II was still in quarantine. It had been hoped that Paul would "teach" Paul II how to predict the winners of football matches.
Given the relatively short lifespan of the common octopus, it is unlikely that Paul II will be alive to be used for predicting the outcomes of 2014 FIFA World Cup games. It is expected that Paul II will be used in attempts to predict the outcomes of Euro 2012 matches.
. He is the cousin of Paul the Octopus. The octopus, named after newly promoted Blackpool F.C.
boss Ian 'Ollie' Holloway
, will use the same method to guess scores, choosing between two boxes in his tank with team names on the side, both of which will contain fish or mussels.
Common Octopus
The Common Octopus is the most studied of all octopus species. Its natural range extends from the Mediterranean Sea and the southern coast of England to at least Senegal in Africa. It also occurs off the Azores, Canary Islands, and Cape Verde Islands.- Characteristics :O. vulgaris grows to 25 cm...
from Weymouth, England. Paul lived in a tank at a commercial attraction, the Sea Life Centre
Sea Life Centres
Sea Life Centres are a chain of commercial sealife-themed attractions. There are twenty-six centres located in Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom , and the United States...
in Oberhausen
Oberhausen
Oberhausen is a city on the river Emscher in the Ruhr Area, Germany, located between Duisburg and Essen . The city hosts the International Short Film Festival Oberhausen and its Gasometer Oberhausen is an anchor point of the European Route of Industrial Heritage. It is also well known for the...
, Germany and became internationally famous after his feeding behaviour was used to correctly predict the winner of each of the Germany national football team
Germany national football team
The Germany national football team is the football team that has represented Germany in international competition since 1908. It is governed by the German Football Association , which was founded in 1900....
's seven matches in the 2010 FIFA World Cup
2010 FIFA World Cup
The 2010 FIFA World Cup was the 19th FIFA World Cup, the world championship for men's national association football teams. It took place in South Africa from 11 June to 11 July 2010...
, as well as the outcome of the final
2010 FIFA World Cup Final
The 2010 FIFA World Cup Final was a football match that took place on 11 July 2010 at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, to determine the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Spain defeated the Netherlands 1–0 with a goal from Andrés Iniesta four minutes from the end of extra time...
.
The prediction process was designed so that Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel
Mussel
The common name mussel is used for members of several families of clams or bivalvia mollusca, from saltwater and freshwater habitats. These groups have in common a shell whose outline is elongated and asymmetrical compared with other edible clams, which are often more or less rounded or oval.The...
, each box marked on the outside with the flag of a national football team in a forthcoming match. His choice of which mussel to eat first was interpreted as indicating his prediction of a win for the country whose flag was on that box.
Selections by the octopus were correct in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and were correct in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. The octopus also correctly selected a win for Spain
Spain national football team
The Spain national football team represents Spain in international association football and is controlled by the Royal Spanish Football Federation, the governing body for football in Spain. The current head coach is Vicente del Bosque...
against the Netherlands
Netherlands national football team
The Netherlands National Football Team represents the Netherlands in association football and is controlled by the Royal Dutch Football Association , the governing body for football in the Netherlands...
in the World Cup Final on 11 July
2010 FIFA World Cup Final
The 2010 FIFA World Cup Final was a football match that took place on 11 July 2010 at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, to determine the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Spain defeated the Netherlands 1–0 with a goal from Andrés Iniesta four minutes from the end of extra time...
by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag
Flag of Spain
The flag of Spain , as it is defined in the Spanish Constitution of 1978, consists of three horizontal stripes: red, yellow and red, the yellow stripe being twice the size of each red stripe...
on it. These predictions were 100% (8/8) correct for the World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall.
However, the keeper at the aquarium stated that Paul was not the same octopus that predicted the results for the 2008 UEFA European Football Championships. Octopus Paul was retired after the 2010 World Cup, and died the following October.
Life
Paul was originally said to have been hatched from an egg in January 2008 at the Sea life Centre in Weymouth, Dorset, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany. American cable television network ESPNESPN
Entertainment and Sports Programming Network, commonly known as ESPN, is an American global cable television network focusing on sports-related programming including live and pre-taped event telecasts, sports talk shows, and other original programming....
reported claims made in a Bild article (later republished by the Italian press) that Paul the Octopus had in fact been caught in April 2010, by Verena Bartsch, off the island of Elba
Elba
Elba is a Mediterranean island in Tuscany, Italy, from the coastal town of Piombino. The largest island of the Tuscan Archipelago, Elba is also part of the National Park of the Tuscan Archipelago and the third largest island in Italy after Sicily and Sardinia...
in the Mediterranean Sea
Mediterranean Sea
The Mediterranean Sea is a sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean surrounded by the Mediterranean region and almost completely enclosed by land: on the north by Anatolia and Europe, on the south by North Africa, and on the east by the Levant...
. Another claim points to Sète
Sète
Sète is a commune in the Hérault department in Languedoc-Roussillon in southern France. Its inhabitants are called Sétois....
in Southern France, according to a French national TV channel.
His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen
Boy Lornsen
Boy Lornsen was a German sculptor and author of children's literature, writing both in Standard German and in Platt....
: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.
According to DPA
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH is a news agency founded in 1949 in Germany. Based in Hamburg, it has grown to be a major worldwide operation serving print media, radio, television, online, mobile phones, and national news agencies. News is available in German, English, Spanish, and Arabic.The DPA...
, local businessmen in O Carballiño
O Carballiño
O Carballiño is a municipality in the Spanish province of Ourense. It has a population of 12521 and an area of 54 km²....
, a town in Galicia, Spain, collectively raised around €30,000 as a "transfer fee" to have Paul as the main attraction of the local Festa do Polbo
Polbo á feira
Polbo á feira alternatively known as polbo estilo feira and pulpo á galega is a traditional Galician dish....
festival. Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not as a menu item. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nonetheless.
After accusations of betrayal by the German newspaper Westfälische Rundschau, the Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is a member of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party . He was elected for two terms as Prime Minister of Spain, in the 2004 and 2008 general elections. On 2 April 2011 he announced he will not stand for re-election in 2012...
jokingly said he would send a team of bodyguards to protect Paul, while the environment minister Elena Espinosa
Elena Espinosa
Elena Espinosa is a Spanish politician in the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party. She was the Spanish Minister of the Environment until 20 October 2010 when she was replaced by Rosa Aguilar...
said she would give Paul protection under conservation laws so that Germans would not eat him.
Career
It was at first claimed that Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament. In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: the soft parts of a musselMussel
The common name mussel is used for members of several families of clams or bivalvia mollusca, from saltwater and freshwater habitats. These groups have in common a shell whose outline is elongated and asymmetrical compared with other edible clams, which are often more or less rounded or oval.The...
. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany
Flag of Germany
The flag of Germany is a tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands displaying the national colours of Germany: black, red, and gold....
, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first and ate the contents of, was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.
Paul's apparent success was considered by some academic commentators to be simply comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin
Coin flipping
Coin flipping or coin tossing or heads or tails is the practice of throwing a coin in the air to choose between two alternatives, sometimes to resolve a dispute between two parties...
; this analogy was made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath
University of Bath
The University of Bath is a campus university located in Bath, United Kingdom. It received its Royal Charter in 1966....
, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University
Pierre and Marie Curie University
The Paris VI University , or the Pierre and Marie Curie University , is a university located on the Jussieu Campus in the Latin Quarter of the 5th arrondissement of Paris, France....
in Paris.
Assuming that the choices were not biased by a hidden variable, and assuming that the octopus was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw
Tie (draw)
To tie or draw is to finish a competition with identical or inconclusive results. The word "tie" is usually used in North America for sports such as American football. "Draw" is usually used in the United Kingdom, Ireland and the Commonwealth of Nations and it is usually used for sports such as...
, the octopus had a 1/2 chance of predicting any single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and of course only the successful animal gains public attention after the fact.
UEFA Euro 2008
| Teams | Stage | Date | Prediction | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage UEFA Euro 2008 Group B Group B of the 2008 UEFA European Championships was one of four groups of competing nations at UEFA Euro 2008. The first of the three rounds of matches were played on 8 June, and the final round was completed on 16 June. All six of the group's matches were played at venues in Austria, in Vienna and... |
Germany | ||||
| Group stage | Germany | ||||
| Group stage | Germany | ||||
| Quarter-finals UEFA Euro 2008 knockout stage The knockout stage of the 2008 UEFA European Championships began with the quarter-finals on 19 June 2008, and was completed on 29 June 2008 with the final at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna.... |
Germany | ||||
| Semi-finals | Germany | ||||
| Final | Germany |
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final. Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%.
2010 FIFA World Cup
| Teams | Stage | Date | Prediction | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage 2010 FIFA World Cup Group D Group D of the 2010 FIFA World Cup began on 13 June and ended on 23 June 2010. The group consisted of Germany, Australia, Serbia and Ghana. Along with Group G, it was considered to be a group of death.... |
Germany | ||||
| Group stage | Serbia | ||||
| Group stage | Germany | ||||
| Round of 16 2010 FIFA World Cup knockout stage The knockout stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup was the second and final stage of the World Cup, following the group stage. It began on 26 June with the round of 16 matches, and ended on 11 July with the final match of the tournament held at Soccer City, Johannesburg, in which Spain beat the... |
Germany | ||||
| Quarter-finals | Germany | ||||
| Semi-finals | Spain | ||||
| 3rd place play-off | Germany | ||||
| Final 2010 FIFA World Cup Final The 2010 FIFA World Cup Final was a football match that took place on 11 July 2010 at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, to determine the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Spain defeated the Netherlands 1–0 with a goal from Andrés Iniesta four minutes from the end of extra time... |
Spain |
Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 World Cup
2010 FIFA World Cup
The 2010 FIFA World Cup was the 19th FIFA World Cup, the world championship for men's national association football teams. It took place in South Africa from 11 June to 11 July 2010...
matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia
Serbia national football team
The Serbia national football team represents Serbia in association football and is controlled by the Football Association of Serbia, the governing body for football in Serbia. Serbia's home ground is Stadion Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade and their last head coach was Vladimir Petrović...
, Ghana
Ghana national football team
The Ghana national football team, popularly known as the Black Stars, is the national association football team of Ghana and is controlled by the Ghana Football Association...
, England
England national football team
The England national football team represents England in association football and is controlled by the Football Association, the governing body for football in England. England is the joint oldest national football team in the world, alongside Scotland, whom they played in the world's first...
, Argentina
Argentina national football team
The Argentina national football team represents Argentina in association football and is controlled by the Argentine Football Association , the governing body for football in Argentina. Argentina's home stadium is Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti and their head coach is Alejandro...
, Spain
Spain national football team
The Spain national football team represents Spain in international association football and is controlled by the Royal Spanish Football Federation, the governing body for football in Spain. The current head coach is Vicente del Bosque...
, and Uruguay
Uruguay national football team
The Uruguayan national football team represents Uruguay in international association football and is controlled by the Uruguayan Football Association, the governing body for football in Uruguay. The current head coach is Óscar Tabárez...
. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook. Paul's keeper, Oliver Walenciak, responded by saying "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."
Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed. The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten. In response, Spanish prime minister
Prime Minister of Spain
The President of the Government of Spain , sometimes known in English as the Prime Minister of Spain, is the head of Government of Spain. The current office is established under the Constitution of 1978...
José Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastián called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain. Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands
Netherlands national football team
The Netherlands National Football Team represents the Netherlands in association football and is controlled by the Royal Dutch Football Association , the governing body for football in the Netherlands...
in the final
2010 FIFA World Cup Final
The 2010 FIFA World Cup Final was a football match that took place on 11 July 2010 at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, to determine the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Spain defeated the Netherlands 1–0 with a goal from Andrés Iniesta four minutes from the end of extra time...
(beating several rival animal psychics, most notably Mani the Parakeet
Mani the parakeet
Mani the parakeet , also called Mani the parrot, is a Malaysian-born Rose-ringed Parakeet who resides in Singapore. It has been an astrologer 'assistant' to M. Muniyappan since 2005, working from his Little India fortune-telling shop along Serangoon Road. M...
who incorrectly predicted that the Netherlands would beat Spain) as well as Germany's win over Uruguay in the third-place playoff, and subsequently went into retirement.
Odds
Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of at least 12 successful predictions from 14 attempts is p = 0.0065, or 0.65%. (154 to 1). And the probability of his 8 successful World Cup predictions out of 8 attempts is 1/28 = 0.0039, or 0.39% (256 to 1). The first three matches were in the group stage where the outcome could have been a win, loss, or draw, resulting in a less than 50% probability of getting the result correct. Assuming a probability of 33.3% in 6 out of 14 matches instead, the probability for 12 or more successes can be simulated numerically to be 0.11% (corresponding to 3.2 standard deviations in gaussian statistics).Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England; after that he made four correct predictions. The chance of those final four predictions being correct is (1/2)4 = 6.25% (odds 16 to 1).
José Mérida, a data analyst from Guatemala City
Guatemala City
Guatemala City , is the capital and largest city of the Republic of Guatemala and Central America...
, used a coin tossing model to calculate that only 178 individuals are needed to have a greater than 50% chance of someone correctly predicting all the winners from a series of 8 matches; and points out that there were certainly thousands and thousands of individuals all over the world attempting to make these predictions during the 2010 World Cup.
Possible biases
Although the Sea Life Center aquarium is commercial rather than a scientific establishment, Paul the octopus appeared to be part of what might be described as a blind experiment, albeit under intense media scrutiny, to predict the outcome of football matches. In order to accept the idea that the octopus somehow had access to information about future events, a seemingly paranormal ability known as precognitionPrecognition
In parapsychology, precognition , also called future sight, and second sight, is a type of extrasensory perception that would involve the acquisition or effect of future information that cannot be deduced from presently available and normally acquired sense-based information or laws of physics...
, it is necessary to first be sure that bias
Bias
Bias is an inclination to present or hold a partial perspective at the expense of alternatives. Bias can come in many forms.-In judgement and decision making:...
of various kinds were not influencing Paul's choices. Etienne Roquain admitted that chance was not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices, and said that the octopus could have been choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on the animal's attraction to the design of the countries' flags, or the superior quality of individual food items that were offered.
The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue
Hue
Hue is one of the main properties of a color, defined technically , as "the degree to which a stimulus can be describedas similar to or different from stimuli that are described as red, green, blue, and yellow,"...
. In this case, individuals would still be able to distinguish brightness
Brightness
Brightness is an attribute of visual perception in which a source appears to be radiating or reflecting light. In other words, brightness is the perception elicited by the luminance of a visual target...
as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham, research lecturer at the School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University
Bangor University
Bangor University is a university based in the city of Bangor in the county of Gwynedd in North Wales-United Kingdom.It was officially known for most of its history as the University College of North Wales...
, suggested that they are drawn to horizontal shapes. Daniel Fey, a Sea Life Aquarium spokesman suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on 6 July, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.
Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he's able to recognise flags." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag. Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle
La Rochelle
La Rochelle is a city in western France and a seaport on the Bay of Biscay, a part of the Atlantic Ocean. It is the capital of the Charente-Maritime department.The city is connected to the Île de Ré by a bridge completed on 19 May 1988...
Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."
Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and smell the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions. Bisikov states that Paul could be easily trained to choose the right box by smell though of course the "right" box is not apparent until after the match is completed, whereas all Paul's predictions are made before the match begins. According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose – although his choices were all made before each match began and while the result was not known.
Another potential bias may have been spatial preference or related factors such as light intensity. On six out of eight predictions for the World Cup the octopus chose the right-hand box (from the camera point of view), skipping the boxes with the Australian and, later, English flags.
Both of these flags are very distinctive from the horizontal stripes pattern he always chose. Also in both predictions of German loss, Paul chose the right-hand boxes with the flags of Serbia and Spain, which are very similar in shape to the German flag usually preferred. Thus a combination of spatial and shape preference may have formed the prediction bias. Paul's keepers put the first team as officially listed by FIFA
FIFA
The Fédération Internationale de Football Association , commonly known by the acronym FIFA , is the international governing body of :association football, futsal and beach football. Its headquarters are located in Zurich, Switzerland, and its president is Sepp Blatter, who is in his fourth...
in the left-hand box, the second team listed by FIFA in the right-hand box, for all predictions.
Theories to explain his behavior could have been systematically tested if Paul had repeated his selection many times, but he only selected one box per game. A real scientific experiment would have been more vigilant about attempting to eliminate possible sources of bias, including the flag visuals and any differences in the preparation (such as for example the size or freshness) of the individual food items.
Public reaction
Paul and his predictions have been spoofed by various segments of the media from across the world. On the web, applications and websites exist that support and spoof Paul. A website called Paul Predicts went online soon after the World Cup.Another popular application called Pulpo Paul went online soon after the World Cup. A song for Paul was made on YouTube and was played on CNN
CNN
Cable News Network is a U.S. cable news channel founded in 1980 by Ted Turner. Upon its launch, CNN was the first channel to provide 24-hour television news coverage, and the first all-news television channel in the United States...
when they did a report on Paul.
Iran
Iran
Iran , officially the Islamic Republic of Iran , is a country in Southern and Western Asia. The name "Iran" has been in use natively since the Sassanian era and came into use internationally in 1935, before which the country was known to the Western world as Persia...
ian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized the reporting of Paul several times during a speech in Tehran
Tehran
Tehran , sometimes spelled Teheran, is the capital of Iran and Tehran Province. With an estimated population of 8,429,807; it is also Iran's largest urban area and city, one of the largest cities in Western Asia, and is the world's 19th largest city.In the 20th century, Tehran was subject to...
, which took place in the weekend of 24–25 July 2010. Ahmadinejad accused the West of using the octopus to spread "western propaganda and superstition," and lamented western decadence
Decadence
Decadence can refer to a personal trait, or to the state of a society . Used to describe a person's lifestyle. Concise Oxford Dictionary: "a luxurious self-indulgence"...
.
In December, Paul was placed 100th in BBC Three
BBC Three
BBC Three is a television network from the BBC broadcasting via digital cable, terrestrial, IPTV and satellite platforms. The channel's target audience includes those in the 16-34 year old age group, and has the purpose of providing "innovative" content to younger audiences, focusing on new talent...
's list of The Most Annoying People of 2010
The Most Annoying People of 2010
The Most Annoying People of 2010 was broadcast on BBC Three on 27-28 Dcember 2010 and narrated by Richard Bacon.-The top ten:...
for correctly predicting the 2010 FIFA World Cup results.
Retirement and ambassadorship
On 12 July 2010, Paul was retired from making predictions. Paul's owners stated "He won't give any more oracle predictions – either in football, or in politics, lifestyle or economy. Paul will get back to his former job, namely making children laugh." As a reward for his accurate predictions, aquarium staff presented him with his very own replica World Cup trophyFIFA World Cup Trophy
The World Cup is a gold trophy that is awarded to the winners of the FIFA World Cup. Since the advent of the World Cup in 1930, two trophies have represented victory: the Jules Rimet Trophy from 1930 to 1970, and the FIFA World Cup Trophy from 1974 to the present day.The trophy, originally named...
garnished with his favourite food – mussels.
On 20 August 2010, Paul was given the position as an official "ambassador" to England's 2018 World Cup bid.
Death
It was expected that Paul the Octopus would die before the UEFA Euro 2012, as common octopuses live on average no more than two years. On 26 October 2010, Paul died in his aquarium in Germany. His remains were cremated and he was given a small burial plot within the grounds of the Oberhausen Sea Life Centre. A modest permanent shrine was erected. Paul's agent, Chris Davies, said "It's a sad day, Paul was rather special, but we managed to film [him] before he left this mortal Earth."Similar oracles
Some other oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the ChemnitzChemnitz
Chemnitz is the third-largest city of the Free State of Saxony, Germany. Chemnitz is an independent city which is not part of any county and seat of the government region Direktionsbezirk Chemnitz. Located in the northern foothills of the Ore Mountains, it is a part of the Saxon triangle...
Zoo
Zoo
A zoological garden, zoological park, menagerie, or zoo is a facility in which animals are confined within enclosures, displayed to the public, and in which they may also be bred....
in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine
Porcupine
Porcupines are rodents with a coat of sharp spines, or quills, that defend or camouflage them from predators. They are indigenous to the Americas, southern Asia, and Africa. Porcupines are the third largest of the rodents, behind the capybara and the beaver. Most porcupines are about long, with...
picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus
Pygmy Hippopotamus
The pygmy hippopotamus is a large mammal native to the forests and swamps of western Africa . The pygmy hippo is reclusive and nocturnal...
spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay
Hay
Hay is grass, legumes or other herbaceous plants that have been cut, dried, and stored for use as animal fodder, particularly for grazing livestock such as cattle, horses, goats, and sheep. Hay is also fed to pets such as rabbits and guinea pigs...
, Jimmy the Peruvian guinea-pig and Anton the tamarin
Tamarin
The tamarins are squirrel-sized New World monkeys from the family Callitrichidae in the genus Saguinus. They are closely related to the lion tamarins in the genus Leontopithecus.- Range :...
eating a raisin
Raisin
Raisins are dried grapes. They are produced in many regions of the world. Raisins may be eaten raw or used in cooking, baking and brewing...
representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet
Mani the parakeet
Mani the parakeet , also called Mani the parrot, is a Malaysian-born Rose-ringed Parakeet who resides in Singapore. It has been an astrologer 'assistant' to M. Muniyappan since 2005, working from his Little India fortune-telling shop along Serangoon Road. M...
of Singapore, Octopus Pauline of Holland, Octopus Xiaoge of Qingdao
Qingdao
' also known in the West by its postal map spelling Tsingtao, is a major city with a population of over 8.715 million in eastern Shandong province, Eastern China. Its built up area, made of 7 urban districts plus Jimo city, is home to about 4,346,000 inhabitants in 2010.It borders Yantai to the...
China, Chimpanzee
Chimpanzee
Chimpanzee, sometimes colloquially chimp, is the common name for the two extant species of ape in the genus Pan. The Congo River forms the boundary between the native habitat of the two species:...
Pino and Red River Hog
Red River Hog
The red river hog , also known as the bush pig , is a wild member of the pig family living in Africa, with most of its distribution in the Guinean and Congolian forests...
Apelsin in Tallinn zoo
Tallinn Zoo
Tallinn Zoo is a zoo in Tallinn, Estonia that was founded in 1939. It is the only zoo in Estonia, and as of 2008 it housed 7158 animals representing 619 species.-History:...
Estonia picked the Netherlands to win the final. Crocodile Harry of Australia picked Spain to win.
Paul II
Paul II is also a common octopus at the Sea life Centre in Oberhausen, who is intended to succeed Paul the Octopus.Paul II was caught in the waters near Montpellier
Montpellier
-Neighbourhoods:Since 2001, Montpellier has been divided into seven official neighbourhoods, themselves divided into sub-neighbourhoods. Each of them possesses a neighbourhood council....
, France. Paul II was kept in quarantine for two months before being moved into the tank which previously housed Paul. According to Stefan Porwoll, the aquarium manager, Paul II was meant to interact with Paul the Octopus, but Paul died while Paul II was still in quarantine. It had been hoped that Paul would "teach" Paul II how to predict the winners of football matches.
Given the relatively short lifespan of the common octopus, it is unlikely that Paul II will be alive to be used for predicting the outcomes of 2014 FIFA World Cup games. It is expected that Paul II will be used in attempts to predict the outcomes of Euro 2012 matches.
Ollie the Octopus
Ollie the Octopus is a common octopus from Weymouth, England, who lives in a tank at the Sea Life Centre in BlackpoolBlackpool
Blackpool is a borough, seaside town, and unitary authority area of Lancashire, in North West England. It is situated along England's west coast by the Irish Sea, between the Ribble and Wyre estuaries, northwest of Preston, north of Liverpool, and northwest of Manchester...
. He is the cousin of Paul the Octopus. The octopus, named after newly promoted Blackpool F.C.
Blackpool F.C.
Blackpool Football Club are an English football club founded in 1887 from the Lancashire seaside town of Blackpool. They are competing in the 2011–12 season of the The Championship, the second tier of professional football in England, having been relegated from the Premier League at the end of the...
boss Ian 'Ollie' Holloway
Ian Holloway
Ian Scott Holloway is an English football manager and former player. He became the manager of Blackpool in May 2009. Holloway is well-known amongst football fans for his off-the-wall interviews, with a wide selection of quotes and soundbites being printed. Holloway's playing career spanned 18...
, will use the same method to guess scores, choosing between two boxes in his tank with team names on the side, both of which will contain fish or mussels.
See also
- Cephalopod intelligenceCephalopod intelligenceCephalopod intelligence has an important comparative aspect in the understanding of intelligence because it relies on a nervous system fundamentally different from that of vertebrates...
- Sonny WoolSonny WoolSonny Wool is a sheep from the North Island of New Zealand. Born in Dannevirke circa 2008, he is named after All Black Sonny Bill Williams. He has become famous since his feeding behaviour has been used to correctly predict the winner of each of the New Zealand national rugby union team's matches...
, psychic sheep of the 2011 Rugby World Cup