Igor Panarin
Encyclopedia
Igor Nikolaevich Panarin is a Russia
n professor
, academician
, political scientist, writer, intelligence analyst, strategic forecaster
, ideologist, and information warfare
expert. He is most notable for his hypothesis of possible disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010, conceived by him as long ago as 1998 but which only gained world attention 10 years later.
Igor Panarin has written 15 books and a number of articles on information warfare
, psychology
, and geopolitics
. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times
, CNN
, BBC
, Sky News
) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the USA, etc. Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme and is active on Twitter
.
He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his high-profile students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin
officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople. His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.
(now the Academy of Federal Security Guard Service of the Russian Federation) in Oryol
and the Division of Psychology of the Military-Political Academy (with a gold medal). In 1993 he defended his thesis for Candidate of Psychological Sciences, titled "Psychological Factors of the Officer's Activity in Conditions of Innovations". His Doctorate in Political Sciences was awarded by the Russian Academy of Public Administration in 1997 for a thesis titled "Informational-Psychological Support of the National Security of Russia".
Panarin began his career in the KGB
of the USSR in 1976. After 1991, he worked in the FAPSI
, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency
, reaching the Colonel
rank. His field of activity was strategic analysis and integration of closed and open information streams, information stream management in crisis situations, and situation modelling of global processes. He did strategic forecasts for the then President Boris Yeltsin
. From 1999 to 2003, he worked as the Head of the Analytical Division of the Central Election Commission of Russia. From 2006 to 2007, Panarin was the Press Secretary
of the Russian Federal Space Agency
(Roskosmos), the Russian analogue of the U.S. NASA
.
Prof. Panarin started his teaching career in 1989 and has taught in the Moscow State University
(MGU), the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), the Russian Academy of Public Administration, and the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
, where he has worked since 1999. He also carries out activities on his own. On 25 November 2004, he launched his official website. In April 2008, his first training seminar called "Information warfare
– technologies for success" was held. It was targeted at top managers of state and business structures, press service managers of authorities and large corporations, anti-crisis management experts, and decision makers in time-deficit situations. On 20 May 2009, Panarin started World politics – his own weekly radio programme on the Voice of Russia
radio. On 5 June 2009, he launched his user-generated content
blog
site, and on 7 September 2009, he started answering questions in English on Twitter
.
but nowadays Russia has no imperial ambitions
. He also supports Pan-Eurasia
n nationalism
of Nikolai Trubetzkoy
. Panarin criticises Vladimir Lenin
and Leon Trotsky
but praises Joseph Stalin
for, as he says, realising a geopolitical
project of his own – a synthesised historical Russian geopolitical idea of Joseph Volotsky
, Philotheus
, Nikolay Danilevsky
and Konstantin Leontiev
. In his view, after 1934 Stalin started a process
of recreation of the Rus doctrine
"Moscow – a Third Rome
" in new historical conditions.
Panarin condemns the activity of the last General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union – Mikhail Gorbachev
. On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the latter's rise to power (on 11 March 1985), Panarin called him "the Antihero of Russia". On Panarin's initiative, an action called a Public Tribunal against Gorbachev for the downfall of the USSR and crimes against its peoples was carried out at the web portal
KM.ru from 2 to 22 December 2005, resulting in 56,298 people condemning Gorbachev.
Panarin opposes the Houston programme of 1990 and criticises the Russian finance minister Alexey Kudrin for following it, saying the 2008 financial crisis in Russia is a part of it. He recommends selling oil and gas to Ukraine only for roubles (which in his view would automatically block its process of integration in NATO) and withdrawal of all Russian funds from the American "financial Titanic", buying gold and creating powerful Russian banks. He also recommends granting credits only in roubles.
", which in his view started forming in 1945 (later he said that the Dulles
brothers
created it) and consists of 7 levels, with the following structure (subordinate from top to bottom):
Panarin writes that the September 11 attacks in 2001 may have been aimed at replacing levels 2 and 3 of the New British Empire with China and the Chinese Commonwealth, respectively (see also his book "Information warfare and geopolitics"), accelerating the U.S. collapse, or preventing it.
data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow analysts at the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information (FAPSI
), Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008), following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government
, effectively seceding
from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers. Panarin sees the task of the world elite as not letting the USA follow the Yugoslavia
n model of disintegration; it is desirable that it follows the Czechoslovakia
n model of disintegration so that everything goes calmly and peacefully. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in 2008, Panarin said:
This hypothesis gained world attention a decade after its initial announcement due to the 2008 financial crisis and has been widely criticised since. This theory gained invalidity after 2010, as the United States has remained intact.
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
n professor
Professor
A professor is a scholarly teacher; the precise meaning of the term varies by country. Literally, professor derives from Latin as a "person who professes" being usually an expert in arts or sciences; a teacher of high rank...
, academician
Academician
The title Academician denotes a Full Member of an art, literary, or scientific academy.In many countries, it is an honorary title. There also exists a lower-rank title, variously translated Corresponding Member or Associate Member, .-Eastern Europe and China:"Academician" may also be a functional...
, political scientist, writer, intelligence analyst, strategic forecaster
Political forecasting
Political forecasting aims at predicting the outcome of elections. Models include:- Opinion polls :Polls are an integral part of political forecasting. However, incorporating poll results into political forecasting models can cause problems in predicting the outcome of elections...
, ideologist, and information warfare
Information warfare
The term Information Warfare is primarily an American concept involving the use and management of information technology in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent...
expert. He is most notable for his hypothesis of possible disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010, conceived by him as long ago as 1998 but which only gained world attention 10 years later.
Igor Panarin has written 15 books and a number of articles on information warfare
Information warfare
The term Information Warfare is primarily an American concept involving the use and management of information technology in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent...
, psychology
Psychology
Psychology is the study of the mind and behavior. Its immediate goal is to understand individuals and groups by both establishing general principles and researching specific cases. For many, the ultimate goal of psychology is to benefit society...
, and geopolitics
Geopolitics
Geopolitics, from Greek Γη and Πολιτική in broad terms, is a theory that describes the relation between politics and territory whether on local or international scale....
. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times
Financial Times
The Financial Times is an international business newspaper. It is a morning daily newspaper published in London and printed in 24 cities around the world. Its primary rival is the Wall Street Journal, published in New York City....
, CNN
CNN
Cable News Network is a U.S. cable news channel founded in 1980 by Ted Turner. Upon its launch, CNN was the first channel to provide 24-hour television news coverage, and the first all-news television channel in the United States...
, BBC
BBC
The British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
, Sky News
Sky News
Sky News is a 24-hour British and international satellite television news broadcaster with an emphasis on UK and international news stories.The service places emphasis on rolling news, including the latest breaking news. Sky News also hosts localised versions of the channel in Australia and in New...
) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the USA, etc. Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme and is active on Twitter
Twitter
Twitter is an online social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and read text-based posts of up to 140 characters, informally known as "tweets".Twitter was created in March 2006 by Jack Dorsey and launched that July...
.
He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his high-profile students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin
Moscow Kremlin
The Moscow Kremlin , sometimes referred to as simply The Kremlin, is a historic fortified complex at the heart of Moscow, overlooking the Moskva River , Saint Basil's Cathedral and Red Square and the Alexander Garden...
officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople. His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.
Biography
Panarin graduated from the Higher Military Command School of Telecommunications of the KGBKGB
The KGB was the commonly used acronym for the . It was the national security agency of the Soviet Union from 1954 until 1991, and was the premier internal security, intelligence, and secret police organization during that time.The State Security Agency of the Republic of Belarus currently uses the...
(now the Academy of Federal Security Guard Service of the Russian Federation) in Oryol
Oryol
Oryol or Orel is a city and the administrative center of Oryol Oblast, Russia, located on the Oka River, approximately south-southwest of Moscow...
and the Division of Psychology of the Military-Political Academy (with a gold medal). In 1993 he defended his thesis for Candidate of Psychological Sciences, titled "Psychological Factors of the Officer's Activity in Conditions of Innovations". His Doctorate in Political Sciences was awarded by the Russian Academy of Public Administration in 1997 for a thesis titled "Informational-Psychological Support of the National Security of Russia".
KGB
The KGB was the commonly used acronym for the . It was the national security agency of the Soviet Union from 1954 until 1991, and was the premier internal security, intelligence, and secret police organization during that time.The State Security Agency of the Republic of Belarus currently uses the...
of the USSR in 1976. After 1991, he worked in the FAPSI
FAPSI
FAPSI or Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information was a Russian government agency, which was responsible for signal intelligence and security of governmental communications...
, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency
National Security Agency
The National Security Agency/Central Security Service is a cryptologic intelligence agency of the United States Department of Defense responsible for the collection and analysis of foreign communications and foreign signals intelligence, as well as protecting U.S...
, reaching the Colonel
Colonel
Colonel , abbreviated Col or COL, is a military rank of a senior commissioned officer. It or a corresponding rank exists in most armies and in many air forces; the naval equivalent rank is generally "Captain". It is also used in some police forces and other paramilitary rank structures...
rank. His field of activity was strategic analysis and integration of closed and open information streams, information stream management in crisis situations, and situation modelling of global processes. He did strategic forecasts for the then President Boris Yeltsin
Boris Yeltsin
Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin was the first President of the Russian Federation, serving from 1991 to 1999.Originally a supporter of Mikhail Gorbachev, Yeltsin emerged under the perestroika reforms as one of Gorbachev's most powerful political opponents. On 29 May 1990 he was elected the chairman of...
. From 1999 to 2003, he worked as the Head of the Analytical Division of the Central Election Commission of Russia. From 2006 to 2007, Panarin was the Press Secretary
Press secretary
A press secretary or press officer is a senior advisor who provides advice on how to deal with the news media and, using news management techniques, helps their employer to maintain a positive public image and avoid negative media coverage....
of the Russian Federal Space Agency
Russian Federal Space Agency
The Russian Federal Space Agency , commonly called Roscosmos and abbreviated as FKA and RKA , is the government agency responsible for the Russian space science program and general aerospace research. It was previously the Russian Aviation and Space Agency .Headquarters of Roscosmos are located...
(Roskosmos), the Russian analogue of the U.S. NASA
NASA
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is the agency of the United States government that is responsible for the nation's civilian space program and for aeronautics and aerospace research...
.
Prof. Panarin started his teaching career in 1989 and has taught in the Moscow State University
Moscow State University
Lomonosov Moscow State University , previously known as Lomonosov University or MSU , is the largest university in Russia. Founded in 1755, it also claims to be one of the oldest university in Russia and to have the tallest educational building in the world. Its current rector is Viktor Sadovnichiy...
(MGU), the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), the Russian Academy of Public Administration, and the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
The Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation also known as State Educational Institution Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, is a diplomatic institution established in 1934 to teach and train the diplomatic and...
, where he has worked since 1999. He also carries out activities on his own. On 25 November 2004, he launched his official website. In April 2008, his first training seminar called "Information warfare
Information warfare
The term Information Warfare is primarily an American concept involving the use and management of information technology in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent...
– technologies for success" was held. It was targeted at top managers of state and business structures, press service managers of authorities and large corporations, anti-crisis management experts, and decision makers in time-deficit situations. On 20 May 2009, Panarin started World politics – his own weekly radio programme on the Voice of Russia
Voice of Russia
Voice of Russia is the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service owned by the All-Russia State Television and Radio Company. Its predecessor Radio Moscow was the official international broadcasting station of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.-Early years:Radio Moscow...
radio. On 5 June 2009, he launched his user-generated content
User-generated content
User generated content covers a range of media content available in a range of modern communications technologies. It entered mainstream usage during 2005 having arisen in web publishing and new media content production circles...
blog
Blog
A blog is a type of website or part of a website supposed to be updated with new content from time to time. Blogs are usually maintained by an individual with regular entries of commentary, descriptions of events, or other material such as graphics or video. Entries are commonly displayed in...
site, and on 7 September 2009, he started answering questions in English on Twitter
Twitter
Twitter is an online social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and read text-based posts of up to 140 characters, informally known as "tweets".Twitter was created in March 2006 by Jack Dorsey and launched that July...
.
Views and ideas
Panarin says he is a supporter of Russia as a superstateSuperstate
A superstate is an agglomeration of nations and/or states, often linguistically and ethnically diverse, under a single political-administrative structure. This is distinct from the concept of superpower, although these are frequently seen together...
but nowadays Russia has no imperial ambitions
Imperialism
Imperialism, as defined by Dictionary of Human Geography, is "the creation and/or maintenance of an unequal economic, cultural, and territorial relationships, usually between states and often in the form of an empire, based on domination and subordination." The imperialism of the last 500 years,...
. He also supports Pan-Eurasia
Eurasia
Eurasia is a continent or supercontinent comprising the traditional continents of Europe and Asia ; covering about 52,990,000 km2 or about 10.6% of the Earth's surface located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres...
n nationalism
Nationalism
Nationalism is a political ideology that involves a strong identification of a group of individuals with a political entity defined in national terms, i.e. a nation. In the 'modernist' image of the nation, it is nationalism that creates national identity. There are various definitions for what...
of Nikolai Trubetzkoy
Nikolai Trubetzkoy
Prince Nikolai Sergeyevich Trubetzkoy was a Russian linguist and historian whose teachings formed a nucleus of the Prague School of structural linguistics. He is widely considered to be the founder of morphophonology...
. Panarin criticises Vladimir Lenin
Vladimir Lenin
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin was a Russian Marxist revolutionary and communist politician who led the October Revolution of 1917. As leader of the Bolsheviks, he headed the Soviet state during its initial years , as it fought to establish control of Russia in the Russian Civil War and worked to create a...
and Leon Trotsky
Leon Trotsky
Leon Trotsky , born Lev Davidovich Bronshtein, was a Russian Marxist revolutionary and theorist, Soviet politician, and the founder and first leader of the Red Army....
but praises Joseph Stalin
Joseph Stalin
Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin was the Premier of the Soviet Union from 6 May 1941 to 5 March 1953. He was among the Bolshevik revolutionaries who brought about the October Revolution and had held the position of first General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union's Central Committee...
for, as he says, realising a geopolitical
Geopolitics
Geopolitics, from Greek Γη and Πολιτική in broad terms, is a theory that describes the relation between politics and territory whether on local or international scale....
project of his own – a synthesised historical Russian geopolitical idea of Joseph Volotsky
Joseph Volotsky
Joseph Volotsky — also known as Joseph of Volotsk or Joseph of Volokolamsk ; secular name Ivan Sanin — was a prominent caesaropapist ideologist of the Russian Orthodox Church who led the party defending monastic landownership.He is a saint ; his memory is celebrated on 9 September and 18...
, Philotheus
Philotheus of Pskov
Philotheus was a hegumen of the Yelizarov Monastery in Pskov in the 16th century. He is credited with authorship of the Legend of the White Cowl and the Third Rome prophecy....
, Nikolay Danilevsky
Nikolay Yakovlevich Danilevsky
Nikolay Yakovlevich Danilevsky was a Russian naturalist, economist, ethnologist, philosopher, historian, and ideologue of the pan-Slavism and Slavophile movement who expounded a view of world history as circular...
and Konstantin Leontiev
Konstantin Leontiev
Konstantin Nikolayevich Leontyev was a conservative, monarchist reactionary Russian philosopher who advocated closer cultural ties between Russia and the East in order to oppose the catastrophic egalitarian, utilitarian and revolutionary influences from the West...
. In his view, after 1934 Stalin started a process
Great Purge
The Great Purge was a series of campaigns of political repression and persecution in the Soviet Union orchestrated by Joseph Stalin from 1936 to 1938...
of recreation of the Rus doctrine
Doctrine
Doctrine is a codification of beliefs or a body of teachings or instructions, taught principles or positions, as the body of teachings in a branch of knowledge or belief system...
"Moscow – a Third Rome
Third Rome
The term Third Rome describes the idea that some European city, state, or country is the successor to the legacy of the Roman Empire and its successor state, the Byzantine Empire ....
" in new historical conditions.
Panarin condemns the activity of the last General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union – Mikhail Gorbachev
Mikhail Gorbachev
Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev is a former Soviet statesman, having served as General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1985 until 1991, and as the last head of state of the USSR, having served from 1988 until its dissolution in 1991...
. On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the latter's rise to power (on 11 March 1985), Panarin called him "the Antihero of Russia". On Panarin's initiative, an action called a Public Tribunal against Gorbachev for the downfall of the USSR and crimes against its peoples was carried out at the web portal
Web portal
A web portal or links page is a web site that functions as a point of access to information in the World Wide Web. A portal presents information from diverse sources in a unified way....
KM.ru from 2 to 22 December 2005, resulting in 56,298 people condemning Gorbachev.
Panarin opposes the Houston programme of 1990 and criticises the Russian finance minister Alexey Kudrin for following it, saying the 2008 financial crisis in Russia is a part of it. He recommends selling oil and gas to Ukraine only for roubles (which in his view would automatically block its process of integration in NATO) and withdrawal of all Russian funds from the American "financial Titanic", buying gold and creating powerful Russian banks. He also recommends granting credits only in roubles.
New British Empire
In 2005, Panarin coined the term "New British EmpireBritish Empire
The British Empire comprised the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates and other territories ruled or administered by the United Kingdom. It originated with the overseas colonies and trading posts established by England in the late 16th and early 17th centuries. At its height, it was the...
", which in his view started forming in 1945 (later he said that the Dulles
John Foster Dulles
John Foster Dulles served as U.S. Secretary of State under President Dwight D. Eisenhower from 1953 to 1959. He was a significant figure in the early Cold War era, advocating an aggressive stance against communism throughout the world...
brothers
Allen Welsh Dulles
Allen Welsh Dulles was an American diplomat, lawyer, banker, and public official who became the first civilian and the longest-serving Director of Central Intelligence and a member of the Warren Commission...
created it) and consists of 7 levels, with the following structure (subordinate from top to bottom):
- American-British transnational capital: Control centres – London and New York, analytical centre – RAND Corporation (USA, California).
- USA: Control centre – Washington DC, analytical centre – the State Department of the USA.
- British Commonwealth: Control centre – London, analytical centre – the BBCBBCThe British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
. - Trojan horseTrojan HorseThe Trojan Horse is a tale from the Trojan War about the stratagem that allowed the Greeks finally to enter the city of Troy and end the conflict. In the canonical version, after a fruitless 10-year siege, the Greeks constructed a huge wooden horse, and hid a select force of men inside...
states: PolandPolandPoland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north...
, Saudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaThe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , commonly known in British English as Saudi Arabia and in Arabic as as-Sa‘ūdiyyah , is the largest state in Western Asia by land area, constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula, and the second-largest in the Arab World... - Economically controlled states
- Politically controlled states
- Destabilisation states: Central AsiaCentral AsiaCentral Asia is a core region of the Asian continent from the Caspian Sea in the west, China in the east, Afghanistan in the south, and Russia in the north...
n states, AfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistan , officially the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, is a landlocked country located in the centre of Asia, forming South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. With a population of about 29 million, it has an area of , making it the 42nd most populous and 41st largest nation in the world...
, IraqIraqIraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
, IsraelIsraelThe State of Israel is a parliamentary republic located in the Middle East, along the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea...
, YugoslaviaYugoslaviaYugoslavia refers to three political entities that existed successively on the western part of the Balkans during most of the 20th century....
Panarin writes that the September 11 attacks in 2001 may have been aimed at replacing levels 2 and 3 of the New British Empire with China and the Chinese Commonwealth, respectively (see also his book "Information warfare and geopolitics"), accelerating the U.S. collapse, or preventing it.
Prediction of the USA's collapse in 2010
In the summer of 1998, based on classifiedClassified information
Classified information is sensitive information to which access is restricted by law or regulation to particular groups of persons. A formal security clearance is required to handle classified documents or access classified data. The clearance process requires a satisfactory background investigation...
data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow analysts at the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information (FAPSI
FAPSI
FAPSI or Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information was a Russian government agency, which was responsible for signal intelligence and security of governmental communications...
), Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008), following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government
Federal government of the United States
The federal government of the United States is the national government of the constitutional republic of fifty states that is the United States of America. The federal government comprises three distinct branches of government: a legislative, an executive and a judiciary. These branches and...
, effectively seceding
Secession
Secession is the act of withdrawing from an organization, union, or especially a political entity. Threats of secession also can be a strategy for achieving more limited goals.-Secession theory:...
from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers. Panarin sees the task of the world elite as not letting the USA follow the Yugoslavia
Yugoslav wars
The Yugoslav Wars were a series of wars, fought throughout the former Yugoslavia between 1991 and 1995. The wars were complex: characterized by bitter ethnic conflicts among the peoples of the former Yugoslavia, mostly between Serbs on the one side and Croats and Bosniaks on the other; but also...
n model of disintegration; it is desirable that it follows the Czechoslovakia
Dissolution of Czechoslovakia
The dissolution of Czechoslovakia, which took effect on 1 January 1993, was an event that saw the self-determined separation of the federal state of Czechoslovakia. The Czech Republic and Slovakia, entities which had arisen in 1969 within the framework of Czechoslovak federalisation, became...
n model of disintegration so that everything goes calmly and peacefully. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in 2008, Panarin said:
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur...One could rejoice in that process...But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S."
This hypothesis gained world attention a decade after its initial announcement due to the 2008 financial crisis and has been widely criticised since. This theory gained invalidity after 2010, as the United States has remained intact.
Other ideas
Panarin conceived a number of other ideas, given below in chronological order, which also reflect his views on the respective subjects. One of them (the rouble-denominated oil-trading exchange) has already been implemented.- Informational-psychological subunits in government and military directorates: proposed in 1997; would develop strategic and operational measures to prevent or neutralise attempts to control the psyche of Russian society (i.e. a strategy of psychological defence). A Chief Directorate in Support of Psychological Security would ensure the psychological component of Russian national security.
- Information Service for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with headquarters in Moscow: proposed in his book Information warfare and the world (2003) for more effective information-analytical support of SCO activities and more reliable presentation of analytical information to the leadership of SCO countries.
- Reforms of Russia's foreign policy propaganda system: proposed in February 2005. First steps – introduction of the post of Foreign Policy Propaganda and Informational Counteraction Advisor of the President of Russia, creation of a State Commission for Public Diplomacy of Russia (later renamed to a Council for Public Diplomacy; in December 2008 he amended an Information Security Committee and an Information Counter-intelligence Service among the others within it). Panarin also proposed the submission to Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Voice of RussiaVoice of RussiaVoice of Russia is the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service owned by the All-Russia State Television and Radio Company. Its predecessor Radio Moscow was the official international broadcasting station of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.-Early years:Radio Moscow...
radio and the RIA Novosti press agency (further, based on the so created structure, formation of a Foreign Policy Media Holding within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia) and creation of non-governmental organisations of Russia, acting on the territory of the CISCISCIS usually refers to the Commonwealth of Independent States, a modern political entity consisting of eleven former Soviet Union republics.The acronym CIS may also refer to:-Organizations:...
countries, the EU, and the USA.
- Doctrine of the New Eurasia: proposed in October 2005 to counter the New British EmpireBritish EmpireThe British Empire comprised the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates and other territories ruled or administered by the United Kingdom. It originated with the overseas colonies and trading posts established by England in the late 16th and early 17th centuries. At its height, it was the...
(see above). He viewed the Continental Arc ParisParisParis is the capital and largest city in France, situated on the river Seine, in northern France, at the heart of the Île-de-France region...
-BerlinBerlinBerlin is the capital city of Germany and is one of the 16 states of Germany. With a population of 3.45 million people, Berlin is Germany's largest city. It is the second most populous city proper and the seventh most populous urban area in the European Union...
-MoscowMoscowMoscow is the capital, the most populous city, and the most populous federal subject of Russia. The city is a major political, economic, cultural, scientific, religious, financial, educational, and transportation centre of Russia and the continent...
-BeijingBeijingBeijing , also known as Peking , is the capital of the People's Republic of China and one of the most populous cities in the world, with a population of 19,612,368 as of 2010. The city is the country's political, cultural, and educational center, and home to the headquarters for most of China's...
-DelhiDelhiDelhi , officially National Capital Territory of Delhi , is the largest metropolis by area and the second-largest by population in India, next to Mumbai. It is the eighth largest metropolis in the world by population with 16,753,265 inhabitants in the Territory at the 2011 Census...
-TehranTehranTehran , sometimes spelled Teheran, is the capital of Iran and Tehran Province. With an estimated population of 8,429,807; it is also Iran's largest urban area and city, one of the largest cities in Western Asia, and is the world's 19th largest city.In the 20th century, Tehran was subject to...
as its kernel and Russia and Germany as strategic partners and coordinators-bridges of the increasingly strengthening economic and humanitarian relations on the Eurasian space. He said that allying with France, Germany integrates the West European space (Berlin-Paris-MadridMadridMadrid is the capital and largest city of Spain. The population of the city is roughly 3.3 million and the entire population of the Madrid metropolitan area is calculated to be 6.271 million. It is the third largest city in the European Union, after London and Berlin, and its metropolitan...
-RomeRomeRome is the capital of Italy and the country's largest and most populated city and comune, with over 2.7 million residents in . The city is located in the central-western portion of the Italian Peninsula, on the Tiber River within the Lazio region of Italy.Rome's history spans two and a half...
-BrusselsBrusselsBrussels , officially the Brussels Region or Brussels-Capital Region , is the capital of Belgium and the de facto capital of the European Union...
-CopenhagenCopenhagenCopenhagen is the capital and largest city of Denmark, with an urban population of 1,199,224 and a metropolitan population of 1,930,260 . With the completion of the transnational Øresund Bridge in 2000, Copenhagen has become the centre of the increasingly integrating Øresund Region...
-OsloOsloOslo is a municipality, as well as the capital and most populous city in Norway. As a municipality , it was established on 1 January 1838. Founded around 1048 by King Harald III of Norway, the city was largely destroyed by fire in 1624. The city was moved under the reign of Denmark–Norway's King...
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) but it must restore its sovereignty by freeing ASAP from U.S. military as General Charles de GaulleCharles de GaulleCharles André Joseph Marie de Gaulle was a French general and statesman who led the Free French Forces during World War II. He later founded the French Fifth Republic in 1958 and served as its first President from 1959 to 1969....
did in France in 1966–1967. He saw Russia as integrator of the ByzantineByzantine EmpireThe Byzantine Empire was the Eastern Roman Empire during the periods of Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages, centred on the capital of Constantinople. Known simply as the Roman Empire or Romania to its inhabitants and neighbours, the Empire was the direct continuation of the Ancient Roman State...
, East European, and Central Asian space (Moscow-MinskMinsk- Ecological situation :The ecological situation is monitored by Republican Center of Radioactive and Environmental Control .During 2003–2008 the overall weight of contaminants increased from 186,000 to 247,400 tons. The change of gas as industrial fuel to mazut for financial reasons has worsened...
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-DushanbeDushanbe-Economy:Coal, lead, and arsenic are mined nearby in the cities of Nurek and Kulob allowing for the industrialization of Dushanbe. The Nurek Dam, the world's highest as of 2008, generates 95% of Tajikistan's electricity, and another dam, the Roghun Dam, is planned on the Vakhsh River...
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) and proposed the creation of a new Eurasian body – Information-Analytical Coordination Bureau based in Moscow. (In May 2009 he renamed the bureau to "Eurasian Bureau".)
- Media and terrorism: later the same month Panarin proposed imposition of severe limits on the media on showing violence acts and during terrorist acts, when the media and the authorities must cooperate. He said that the media must never give the terrorists a tribune or help them acquire operational information, and double media standardsDouble standardA double standard is the unjust application of different sets of principles for similar situations. The concept implies that a single set of principles encompassing all situations is the desirable ideal. The term has been used in print since at least 1895...
are intolerable. He proposed a contract on anti-terror between the authorities and the media with a behavioural codex of the journalists and the creation of a special state body for informational counteraction organisation and coordination of the information activities of all state structures operating to counter terror. In his view, the media are to a certain degree a catalyst for terrorism because terrorist acts of such a volume would be impossible without them; also, the press induces panic in the organs of state authority and affects the public negatively.
- Eurasian Union: proposed in January 2006 as EurasiaEurasiaEurasia is a continent or supercontinent comprising the traditional continents of Europe and Asia ; covering about 52,990,000 km2 or about 10.6% of the Earth's surface located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres...
n Rus – an interstate formation modelled after the European UnionEuropean UnionThe European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...
on the territory of the post-Soviet area headed by a Prince (after Machiavelli) that would restore and strengthen the economic integration, with gradual incorporation of a series of Balkan and other countries. He proposed Vladimir PutinVladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich Putin served as the second President of the Russian Federation and is the current Prime Minister of Russia, as well as chairman of United Russia and Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union of Russia and Belarus. He became acting President on 31 December 1999, when...
as the first Prince of the formation, which he renamed in 2009 to Eurasian Union and proposed St Petersburg as its capital by 2012, when in his view only 3 planetary centres of force would exist – the European Union (EU-1), the Eurasian Union (EU-2), and the Chinese Commonwealth. In April 2009 he proposed a second, Southern capital – Alma-Ata and in May 2009 – two more capitals: KievKievKiev or Kyiv is the capital and the largest city of Ukraine, located in the north central part of the country on the Dnieper River. The population as of the 2001 census was 2,611,300. However, higher numbers have been cited in the press....
in 2014 and Belgrade in 2020.
- Rouble-denominated oil-trading exchange in Russia: proposed in February 2006. Such an exchange was opened in St Petersburg on 24 September 2008, and as soon as in March 2009, RosneftRosneftRosneft is an integrated oil company majority owned by the Government of Russia. Rosneft is headquartered in Moscow’s Balchug district near the Kremlin, across the Moskva river...
(the leader in the Russian oil field and one of the largest public oil companies in the world) sold by auction 7.6 thousands of tonnes of oil products for 97 millions roubles. For March, the auction volume amounts to 15–20 thousands of tonnes of oil products monthly. Besides Rosneft, other major Russian oil companies like GazpromGazpromOpen Joint Stock Company Gazprom is the largest extractor of natural gas in the world and the largest Russian company. Its headquarters are in Cheryomushki District, South-Western Administrative Okrug, Moscow...
Oil, LukoilLUKoilLukoil/LUKoil ; ) is Russia's second largest oil company and its second largest producer of oil. In 2009, the company produced 97.615 million tons of oil; ....
, SurgutneftegasSurgutneftegasSurgutneftegas is a Russian major oil and gas company. It was created in 1993 by merging several previously state-owned companies with large oil and gas reserves in Western Siberia. The company's headquarters are located in Surgut, Tyumen Oblast....
, and TNK-BPTNK-BPTNK-BP is a major vertically integrated Russian oil company. It is Russia's third largest oil producer and among the ten largest private oil companies in the world. TNK-BP is Russia's third largest oil company in terms of reserves and crude oil production...
also plan to go to the exchange, and crude oil trade is expected to start in a few months.
- Information-ideological geopolitical development concept: proposed in 2008 in his book Information warfare for the future of Russia, where he develops the basic ideas of Eurasian integration. In his view, by 2012 Russia will have made a transition from sovereign democracy to a geopolitical project of Eurasian Integration.
- Quintilateral Commission (5 sides from the 5 continents; compare with the Trilateral CommissionTrilateral CommissionThe Trilateral Commission is a non-governmental, non-partisan discussion group founded by David Rockefeller in July 1973 to foster closer cooperation among the United States, Europe and Japan.-History:...
): proposed in January 2009 as an expert mechanism for international consultation on seeking ways out of the world crisis. In March 2009 he said that the commission's task would be to create powerful instruments of national and international forecasting.
- New world currency – ACURE: proposed in March 2009. To be based on the three leading world currencies: the Asian Currency Unit (a regional currency basket that was first proposed in 2006 based on the currencies of Japan, China, and South Korea along with the ASEAN group), the rouble, and the euro. In his view, the coordinated introduction of the ACURE in 20 countries would allow a painless transition to a new model of world development.
- Bi-currency basket to replace the USD for the SCO: in April 2009 Panarin proposed integration of EurasiaEurasiaEurasia is a continent or supercontinent comprising the traditional continents of Europe and Asia ; covering about 52,990,000 km2 or about 10.6% of the Earth's surface located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres...
and a new development model to faster overcome the global crisis, including working out a new Joint Anti-Crisis Programme for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and dropping the U.S. dollar in favour of a rouble-yuanChinese yuanThe yuan is the base unit of a number of modern Chinese currencies. The yuan is the primary unit of account of the Renminbi.A yuán is also known colloquially as a kuài . One yuán is divided into 10 jiǎo or colloquially máo...
bi-currency basket as the SCO currency. He proposed 3 mutual payment levels for the SCO: 1) national currencies, 2) rouble or yuan, and 3) bi-currency basket, and offered the SCO to propose the ACURE as the new world currencyWorld currencyIn the foreign exchange market and international finance, a world currency, supranational currency, or global currency refers to a currency in which the vast majority of international transactions take place and which serves as the world's primary reserve currency...
on the 2009 G-20 Pittsburgh summit2009 G-20 Pittsburgh summitThe 2009 G-20 Pittsburgh Summit was the third meeting of the G-20 heads of state in discussion of financial markets and the world economy.The G-20 is the premier forum for discussing, planning and monitoring international economiccooperation....
.
- Russian-American information-analytical anti-crisis centre: proposed later the same month, with expert-analytical and project-prognostic divisions, to offer the Russian and U.S. leaders joint proposals for finding the way out of the global financial crisis. Consisting of scientists, analysts, journalists, and civil societyCivil societyCivil society is composed of the totality of many voluntary social relationships, civic and social organizations, and institutions that form the basis of a functioning society, as distinct from the force-backed structures of a state , the commercial institutions of the market, and private criminal...
representatives, whose special analytical reports and prognoses would be systematically brought to the notice of the leaders of the UN Security Council member countries.
Books by Panarin
- Psychological security of the army, Moscow, 1996
- Psychological aspects of ensuring the national security of Russia, Moscow, 1995 (part I), 1996 (part II)
- Information warfare and Russia, School aid of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2000, (at Google Books)
- Information warfare and authority, Security World, 2001, ISBN 5-89258-033-4
- Information. Diplomacy. Psychology, Izvestia, 2002, ISBN 5-206-00606-8
- Information warfare technology, KSP+, 2003, ISBN 5-89692-084-9
- Information warfare and the world, OLMA-Press, 2003, ISBN 5-224-04397-2 (at Google Books)
- Information warfare and elections, Gorodets, 2003, ISBN 5-9584-0002-9 (at Google Books)
- Information warfare: victory in Bashkiria, Gorodets, 2004, ISBN 5-9584-0021-5
- Information warfare and diplomacy, Gorodets, 2004, ISBN 5-9584-0032-0
- Information warfare and the Third Rome, Cyril and Methodius, 2005, on-line bookOn-line bookAn on-line book is a resource in book-like form that is only available to read online. It differs from the common idea of an ebook, which is usually available to download and read locally or on an ebook reader.Book-like means:...
, - Information warfare, PR, and the world politics, Hotline – Telecom, 2006, ISBN 5-93517-297-6
- Information warfare and geopolitics, Generation, 2006, ISBN 5-9763-0001-4 (at Google Books)
- Information warfare for the future of Russia, Hotline – Telecom, 2008, ISBN 978-5-9912-0039-4
- The crash of the dollar and the disintegration of the USA, Hotline – Telecom, 2009, ISBN 978-5-9912-0113-1
- World after crisis, or what is next, Piter Publishing House, 2011, ISBN 978-5-459-00319-2
Articles by Panarin
- Psychological security of military personnel, Landmark, issue No. 8, 1995
- Information security problems in modern conditions, 1997
- Strengthening of the role of the informational factors in Russia's national security system, Authority, issue No. 1, 1998,
- Information warfare and financial crises, VIP, issue No. 1, 1999
- Is a collapse of the USA in 2010 possible?, Authority, issue No. 6, 1999,
- Unoccupied heights. Public opinion as an object of influence and struggle in the contemporary armed conflict, Security World, issue No. 7, 1999,
- Is Russia ready for the 21st century information warfare?, Authority, issue No. 2, 2000,
- Nontraditional view on the problem of foreign debt, Banking in Moscow, issue No. 3, 2001
- Information warfare: theory and practice, Human Resource Policies, issue No. 2, 2002
- An instrument of foreign policy, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 32, 2008,
- Secrets of 11 September, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 37, 2008,
- A system of informational counteraction, Military-industrial courier, issue No. 41, 2008,
- The Dollar as a world currency will vanish in the autumn of 2009, Metal buildings, issue No. 3, 2009,