Never at War
Encyclopedia
Never at War: Why Democracies Will Not Fight One Another is a book by the historian
and physicist
Spencer R. Weart
published by Yale University Press
in 1998. It examines political and military conflicts throughout human history and finds no exception to one of the claims made by the controversial democratic peace theory
: well-established liberal democracies have never made war on one another. In addition to the democratic peace, Weart argues that there is also an oligarchic
peace and provides a new explanation for both the democratic and oligarchic peace. The book is often mentioned in the academic debate and has received both praise and criticism.
), Italian (including the Tuscan dialect
), Spanish, Greek and Latin.
Looking at a borderline case, the Athenian democracy
that excluded metic
s and slave
s, Weart argues that it was a democracy since appearance alone could not decide who was a citizen, citizens could become slaves and slaves could become free, citizens could be poorer than slaves, and slaves could work for example as bankers. The metics were even harder to tell from the citizens. Typically the citizens and the non-citizens worked alongside under similar conditions. Thus, the non-citizens were so interwoven through the community that their views were probably represented by the citizens on most issues. Some aspects of the direct democracy
practiced in Athens may have been more open and democratic than the representative democracy used today. In contrast, the Confederate States of America
was an oligarchy.
In order to help differentiate between oligarchies and democracies, Weart requires that the classification should not differ from how the people at the time viewed the differences, the oligarchic elite should live in constant fear of a rebellion, and for democracies a war should not have been prevented if everyone had the vote. For example, it was the Greeks who first created the concepts of democracy and oligarchy and they classified Athens as a democracy while Sparta was an oligarchy. There is no mention in the historical record of fears of a revolt by the slaves in Athens, but such fears were frequent in Sparta and the Confederate States.
Weart uses a broader definition of war than is usual in research on the democratic peace theory and includes any conflict causing at least 200 deaths in organized battle by political units against one another. He requires that the democracies and the oligarchies should have tolerated dissent for at least 3 years, finding this time necessary for a political culture in a nation to change and be reflected in foreign policy.
The book argues that the pattern is sharply evident in for example 300 years of Ancient Greek
history, the Swiss Canton
s since 14th century, in the County of Flanders
during 14th century, in the three and a half centuries of the Hanseatic League
, and in Renaissance
Italy. These periods included numerous societies that frequently changed regime type. The societies abruptly stopped fighting other oligarchies if they became an oligarchy and abruptly stopped fighting other democracies if they became a democracy. This pattern immediately reversed if the regime type changed again.
Weart argues that the only clear case of war between oligarchies is a 1656 battle between Bern and Lucerne
, caused by religious fervor during the Reformation
. The War of the Pacific
may be another, but both Chile
and Peru
had strong anocratic tendencies where family and personal loyalty formed much of the power base of the leaders. Toleration of political dissent was at best limited.
Democracies have a few times issued formal declarations of war on other democracies, usually because of a war between a temporary allied nondemocracy and the other democracy. In these cases the democracies have carefully avoided engaging in almost any real battle with one another. There seems to have been almost no deaths during the 369-362 BC
war between Thebes and Athens
, while at the same time Sparta and Thebes fought numerous bloody battles. In the main battle in 362 BC, the Athenian infantry avoided joining the charge. Finland and the United Kingdom carefully avoided attacking one another during World War II despite a formal declaration of war.
and outgroup
, documented in many psychological studies. Members of the outgroup are seen as inherently inferior and thus exploitation of them is justified. Citizens of democracies include citizens of other democratic states in the ingroup; the elites of oligarchies include the elites of other oligarchies in the ingroup. However, the oligarchic elites and the democratic citizens view each other as outgroup, democracies viewing the elites as exploiting the rest of the population, the oligarchic elites viewing democracies as governed by inferior men and are afraid that the democratic ideals may spread to their state.
The democratic and oligarchic peace are also strengthened by the culture of arbitration and the respect for the ingroup opposition in both democracies and oligarchies. Similar policies are applied to foreign policy when dealing with states belonging to the ingroup. In contrast, the leaders of autocracies are the survivors of a culture of violence against opponents. They use similar methods when dealing with other states which often cause wars. The book presents earlier statistical studies and case studies showing that democracies and oligarchies conduct diplomacy
very differently from autocracies. Weart argues against explanations like more trade between democracies, finding the pattern to change too abruptly for this to be the case.
Earlier democracies and oligarchies did not include non-Europeans in the ingroup, perceiving them to be racially inferior people living in autocracies and anocracies. This allowed colonial
and imperialistic wars and exploitation.
The book also describes an "appeasement trap". The autocratic leaders misunderstand the conciliatory methods used by democracies and oligarchies, seeing it as an admission of weakness that can be exploited with little risk. When the conciliatory methods are suddenly abandoned and the war arrives the autocratic leaders are often surprised and then conclude that the other side planned the war from the beginning.
in order to hold free elections, but with little long-term success. Those attempts that succeeded, like the occupied Japan
after World War II, involved drastic change of the whole political culture. Weart argues that it is generally better to spread democracy by diplomacy and by slowly promoting internal political change.
to prove that the findings are statistically significant. This would be very difficult to do if including all of human history. The many statistical studies on this subject have almost always limited themselves to the period after 1815. For this period there are prefabricated data sets available which lists for example all battle deaths for all nations. Weart instead uses a well-tried method often used by historians: comparative case studies. Especially by looking at many ambiguous cases it is possible to sift out a set of features that decide if a pair of regimes makes war or avoids it.
: He excludes the earlier wars of Rome
, including the Punic Wars
, stating that there are no primary sources and no reliable secondary sources, for example by a historian who could understand Punic, from Carthage
, making it impossible to determine the exact form of government at the start of these wars. Yet he uses Xenophon
for other conflicts, who has also been doubted as a reliable source, although not for the same reason. Also, many modern classicists agree that Rome and Carthage were oligarchic republics, "which suggests that excluding them was a largely arbitrary judgment that just happened to leave Weart's central claim intact." However, Weart states that there have been some wars between oligarchies, so these wars would add to this list, not disprove his statement.
The Sicilian Expedition
is sometimes mentioned as a war between somewhat democratic states. Some democratic peace researchers have excluded the states in Ancient Greece due to the limited franchise and the use of allotment
to select many government leaders. As noted earlier, Weart classifies Athens as a democracy and argues that this war was actually an example of a war between a democracy and an oligarchy. However, he also states "The possibility that the Athenians were wrong suggests a qualification to our rule. Instead of saying that well-established democracies do not make war on their own kind, perhaps we should say that they do not make war on other states they perceive to be democracies." Critics argue that there is no ancient evidence for this perception, and that the major source on Syracuse democracy is Thucydides
, the Athenian. Weart states Aristotle
(an Athenian metic
), the only scholar who ever possessed the documents required to study the constitution of Syracuse, carefully avoided calling Syracuse a democracy. One of the main reason for the Sicilian Expedition
was that Syracuse was reported to have violent factional strife. Help from an inside group was essential since the Greeks lacked effective siege
machinery and the expedition was ill-suited for the alternative long wait in order to starve the defenders. In every other known case when cities were betrayed to an Athenian army, it was by a democratic faction. Furthermore, scholars have argued that Thucydides
had a distaste of democracy which affected his descriptions and evaluations. Weart's argument regarding the Sicilian Expedition is similar to the position of the prominent scholar G.E.M. de Ste. Croix.
The same review also includes a list of possible wars between Greek oligarchies, including the recurrent wars between Sparta
and Argos
. Weart mentions these wars in a footnote with references where he states that Argos was a democracy.
There are many other proposed explanations for the democratic peace. For example, a game-theoretic explanation for the democratic peace is that the public and the open debate in democracies send clear and reliable information regarding the intentions to other states. In contrast, it is difficult to know the intentions of nondemocratic leaders, what effect concessions will have, and if promises will be kept. Thus there will be mistrust and unwillingness to make concessions if at least one of the parties in a dispute is a nondemocracy.
Historian
A historian is a person who studies and writes about the past and is regarded as an authority on it. Historians are concerned with the continuous, methodical narrative and research of past events as relating to the human race; as well as the study of all history in time. If the individual is...
and physicist
Physicist
A physicist is a scientist who studies or practices physics. Physicists study a wide range of physical phenomena in many branches of physics spanning all length scales: from sub-atomic particles of which all ordinary matter is made to the behavior of the material Universe as a whole...
Spencer R. Weart
Spencer R. Weart
Spencer R. Weart was the director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics from 1971 until his retirement in 2009. Originally trained as a physicist, he is now a historian....
published by Yale University Press
Yale University Press
Yale University Press is a book publisher founded in 1908 by George Parmly Day. It became an official department of Yale University in 1961, but remains financially and operationally autonomous....
in 1998. It examines political and military conflicts throughout human history and finds no exception to one of the claims made by the controversial democratic peace theory
Democratic peace theory
Democratic peace theory is the theory that democracies don't go to war with each other. How well the theory matches reality depends a great deal on one's definition of "democracy" and "war"...
: well-established liberal democracies have never made war on one another. In addition to the democratic peace, Weart argues that there is also an oligarchic
Oligarchy
Oligarchy is a form of power structure in which power effectively rests with an elite class distinguished by royalty, wealth, family ties, commercial, and/or military legitimacy...
peace and provides a new explanation for both the democratic and oligarchic peace. The book is often mentioned in the academic debate and has received both praise and criticism.
Sources
Due to the long time period, Weart has often relied on the works of other historians but has consulted at least five works for even trivial crises involving democracies and oligarchies. Some cases have never been studied with this question in mind and he has then used primary sources which included reading works in French, German (including Alemannic GermanAlemannic German
Alemannic is a group of dialects of the Upper German branch of the Germanic language family. It is spoken by approximately ten million people in six countries: Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Liechtenstein, France and Italy...
), Italian (including the Tuscan dialect
Tuscan dialect
The Tuscan language , or the Tuscan dialect is an Italo-Dalmatian language spoken in Tuscany, Italy.Standard Italian is based on Tuscan, specifically on its Florentine variety...
), Spanish, Greek and Latin.
Definitions
The book classifies human societies into four broad groups:- Anocracies are societies where central authority is weak or nonexistent. Kinship bonds extended by personal allegiances to notable leaders are the principal relations. A society may in theory be a state but if the above applies, then Weart classifies it as an anocracy. Examples include tribeTribeA tribe, viewed historically or developmentally, consists of a social group existing before the development of, or outside of, states.Many anthropologists use the term tribal society to refer to societies organized largely on the basis of kinship, especially corporate descent groups .Some theorists...
s, SomaliaSomaliaSomalia , officially the Somali Republic and formerly known as the Somali Democratic Republic under Socialist rule, is a country located in the Horn of Africa. Since the outbreak of the Somali Civil War in 1991 there has been no central government control over most of the country's territory...
, and the medieval Italian cities where influential families fought street battles and lived in fortified keepKeepA keep is a type of fortified tower built within castles during the Middle Ages by European nobility. Scholars have debated the scope of the word keep, but usually consider it to refer to large towers in castles that were fortified residences, used as a refuge of last resort should the rest of the...
s. Importantly, there is no central authority which can effectively restrain personal violence such as raids which often escalate by involving friends and relatives to vendettas and wars. Some anocratic tribes may have a form of democracy in the extended kinship group but no effective control of personal raids against non-kin groups. Examples include the IroquoisIroquoisThe Iroquois , also known as the Haudenosaunee or the "People of the Longhouse", are an association of several tribes of indigenous people of North America...
who frequently raided and eventually destroyed most of the Hurons.
- Autocracies are states where opposition against the current rulers is suppressed. There may be frequent shifts back and forth between anocracy and autocracy when a leader temporarily gains enough power to suppress all opponents in a territory.
- Oligarchies are states where participation in government is restricted to an elite. Voting decides policy and opposition is accepted within the elite. Voting is usually restricted to less than 1/3 of the males. Examples include SpartaSpartaSparta or Lacedaemon, was a prominent city-state in ancient Greece, situated on the banks of the River Eurotas in Laconia, in south-eastern Peloponnese. It emerged as a political entity around the 10th century BC, when the invading Dorians subjugated the local, non-Dorian population. From c...
and the Polish-Lithuanian CommonwealthPolish-Lithuanian CommonwealthThe Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth was a dualistic state of Poland and Lithuania ruled by a common monarch. It was the largest and one of the most populous countries of 16th- and 17th‑century Europe with some and a multi-ethnic population of 11 million at its peak in the early 17th century...
.
- Democracies are states similar to oligarchies but there is not a sharp and clear distinction between an elite and the rest of the domestic population. Usually, more than 2/3 of the males have the right to vote.
Looking at a borderline case, the Athenian democracy
Athenian democracy
Athenian democracy developed in the Greek city-state of Athens, comprising the central city-state of Athens and the surrounding territory of Attica, around 508 BC. Athens is one of the first known democracies. Other Greek cities set up democracies, and even though most followed an Athenian model,...
that excluded metic
Metic
In ancient Greece, the term metic referred to a resident alien, one who did not have citizen rights in his or her Greek city-state of residence....
s and slave
Slavery
Slavery is a system under which people are treated as property to be bought and sold, and are forced to work. Slaves can be held against their will from the time of their capture, purchase or birth, and deprived of the right to leave, to refuse to work, or to demand compensation...
s, Weart argues that it was a democracy since appearance alone could not decide who was a citizen, citizens could become slaves and slaves could become free, citizens could be poorer than slaves, and slaves could work for example as bankers. The metics were even harder to tell from the citizens. Typically the citizens and the non-citizens worked alongside under similar conditions. Thus, the non-citizens were so interwoven through the community that their views were probably represented by the citizens on most issues. Some aspects of the direct democracy
Direct democracy
Direct democracy is a form of government in which people vote on policy initiatives directly, as opposed to a representative democracy in which people vote for representatives who then vote on policy initiatives. Direct democracy is classically termed "pure democracy"...
practiced in Athens may have been more open and democratic than the representative democracy used today. In contrast, the Confederate States of America
Confederate States of America
The Confederate States of America was a government set up from 1861 to 1865 by 11 Southern slave states of the United States of America that had declared their secession from the U.S...
was an oligarchy.
In order to help differentiate between oligarchies and democracies, Weart requires that the classification should not differ from how the people at the time viewed the differences, the oligarchic elite should live in constant fear of a rebellion, and for democracies a war should not have been prevented if everyone had the vote. For example, it was the Greeks who first created the concepts of democracy and oligarchy and they classified Athens as a democracy while Sparta was an oligarchy. There is no mention in the historical record of fears of a revolt by the slaves in Athens, but such fears were frequent in Sparta and the Confederate States.
Weart uses a broader definition of war than is usual in research on the democratic peace theory and includes any conflict causing at least 200 deaths in organized battle by political units against one another. He requires that the democracies and the oligarchies should have tolerated dissent for at least 3 years, finding this time necessary for a political culture in a nation to change and be reflected in foreign policy.
Results
Using these definitions, Weart finds numerous wars between the same and different kinds of societies but also two exceptions. Democracies have never fought one another and oligarchies have almost never fought one another. Wars between democracies and oligarchies have, however, been common.The book argues that the pattern is sharply evident in for example 300 years of Ancient Greek
Ancient Greek
Ancient Greek is the stage of the Greek language in the periods spanning the times c. 9th–6th centuries BC, , c. 5th–4th centuries BC , and the c. 3rd century BC – 6th century AD of ancient Greece and the ancient world; being predated in the 2nd millennium BC by Mycenaean Greek...
history, the Swiss Canton
Cantons of Switzerland
The 26 cantons of Switzerland are the member states of the federal state of Switzerland. Each canton was a fully sovereign state with its own borders, army and currency from the Treaty of Westphalia until the establishment of the Swiss federal state in 1848...
s since 14th century, in the County of Flanders
County of Flanders
The County of Flanders was one of the territories constituting the Low Countries. The county existed from 862 to 1795. It was one of the original secular fiefs of France and for centuries was one of the most affluent regions in Europe....
during 14th century, in the three and a half centuries of the Hanseatic League
Hanseatic League
The Hanseatic League was an economic alliance of trading cities and their merchant guilds that dominated trade along the coast of Northern Europe...
, and in Renaissance
Renaissance
The Renaissance was a cultural movement that spanned roughly the 14th to the 17th century, beginning in Italy in the Late Middle Ages and later spreading to the rest of Europe. The term is also used more loosely to refer to the historical era, but since the changes of the Renaissance were not...
Italy. These periods included numerous societies that frequently changed regime type. The societies abruptly stopped fighting other oligarchies if they became an oligarchy and abruptly stopped fighting other democracies if they became a democracy. This pattern immediately reversed if the regime type changed again.
Weart argues that the only clear case of war between oligarchies is a 1656 battle between Bern and Lucerne
Lucerne
Lucerne is a city in north-central Switzerland, in the German-speaking portion of that country. Lucerne is the capital of the Canton of Lucerne and the capital of the district of the same name. With a population of about 76,200 people, Lucerne is the most populous city in Central Switzerland, and...
, caused by religious fervor during the Reformation
Protestant Reformation
The Protestant Reformation was a 16th-century split within Western Christianity initiated by Martin Luther, John Calvin and other early Protestants. The efforts of the self-described "reformers", who objected to the doctrines, rituals and ecclesiastical structure of the Roman Catholic Church, led...
. The War of the Pacific
War of the Pacific
The War of the Pacific took place in western South America from 1879 through 1883. Chile fought against Bolivia and Peru. Despite cooperation among the three nations in the war against Spain, disputes soon arose over the mineral-rich Peruvian provinces of Tarapaca, Tacna, and Arica, and the...
may be another, but both Chile
Chile
Chile ,officially the Republic of Chile , is a country in South America occupying a long, narrow coastal strip between the Andes mountains to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west. It borders Peru to the north, Bolivia to the northeast, Argentina to the east, and the Drake Passage in the far...
and Peru
Peru
Peru , officially the Republic of Peru , is a country in western South America. It is bordered on the north by Ecuador and Colombia, on the east by Brazil, on the southeast by Bolivia, on the south by Chile, and on the west by the Pacific Ocean....
had strong anocratic tendencies where family and personal loyalty formed much of the power base of the leaders. Toleration of political dissent was at best limited.
Democracies have a few times issued formal declarations of war on other democracies, usually because of a war between a temporary allied nondemocracy and the other democracy. In these cases the democracies have carefully avoided engaging in almost any real battle with one another. There seems to have been almost no deaths during the 369-362 BC
362 BC
Year 362 BC was a year of the pre-Julian Roman calendar. At the time, it was known as the Year of the Consulship of Ahala and Aventinensis...
war between Thebes and Athens
Athens
Athens , is the capital and largest city of Greece. Athens dominates the Attica region and is one of the world's oldest cities, as its recorded history spans around 3,400 years. Classical Athens was a powerful city-state...
, while at the same time Sparta and Thebes fought numerous bloody battles. In the main battle in 362 BC, the Athenian infantry avoided joining the charge. Finland and the United Kingdom carefully avoided attacking one another during World War II despite a formal declaration of war.
Explanation
Weart's explanation for the democratic and the oligarchic peace is the human tendency to classify other humans into ingroupIngroup
In sociology and social psychology, ingroups and outgroups are social groups to which an individual feels as though he or she belongs as a member, or to which they feel contempt, opposition, or a desire to compete. People tend to hold positive attitudes towards members of their own groups, a...
and outgroup
Outgroup
In cladistics or phylogenetics, an outgroup is a group of organisms that serves as a reference group for determination of the evolutionary relationship among three or more monophyletic groups of organisms....
, documented in many psychological studies. Members of the outgroup are seen as inherently inferior and thus exploitation of them is justified. Citizens of democracies include citizens of other democratic states in the ingroup; the elites of oligarchies include the elites of other oligarchies in the ingroup. However, the oligarchic elites and the democratic citizens view each other as outgroup, democracies viewing the elites as exploiting the rest of the population, the oligarchic elites viewing democracies as governed by inferior men and are afraid that the democratic ideals may spread to their state.
The democratic and oligarchic peace are also strengthened by the culture of arbitration and the respect for the ingroup opposition in both democracies and oligarchies. Similar policies are applied to foreign policy when dealing with states belonging to the ingroup. In contrast, the leaders of autocracies are the survivors of a culture of violence against opponents. They use similar methods when dealing with other states which often cause wars. The book presents earlier statistical studies and case studies showing that democracies and oligarchies conduct diplomacy
Diplomacy
Diplomacy is the art and practice of conducting negotiations between representatives of groups or states...
very differently from autocracies. Weart argues against explanations like more trade between democracies, finding the pattern to change too abruptly for this to be the case.
Earlier democracies and oligarchies did not include non-Europeans in the ingroup, perceiving them to be racially inferior people living in autocracies and anocracies. This allowed colonial
Colonialism
Colonialism is the establishment, maintenance, acquisition and expansion of colonies in one territory by people from another territory. It is a process whereby the metropole claims sovereignty over the colony and the social structure, government, and economics of the colony are changed by...
and imperialistic wars and exploitation.
The book also describes an "appeasement trap". The autocratic leaders misunderstand the conciliatory methods used by democracies and oligarchies, seeing it as an admission of weakness that can be exploited with little risk. When the conciliatory methods are suddenly abandoned and the war arrives the autocratic leaders are often surprised and then conclude that the other side planned the war from the beginning.
Specific conflicts
Most of the book describes specific conflicts that are borderline cases where critical features might be expected to show up. The following presents some of the conflicts mentioned and Weart's arguments for why they are not wars between well-established liberal democracies.- American Revolutionary WarAmerican Revolutionary WarThe American Revolutionary War , the American War of Independence, or simply the Revolutionary War, began as a war between the Kingdom of Great Britain and thirteen British colonies in North America, and ended in a global war between several European great powers.The war was the result of the...
. The United States can be considered a liberal democracy after the Continental CongressContinental CongressThe Continental Congress was a convention of delegates called together from the Thirteen Colonies that became the governing body of the United States during the American Revolution....
but was less than three years old. The monarchy under George III was still the final arbiter of British policy in such matters as the appointment of colonial officials and the power to declare wars. The franchise was restricted to a small minority.
- Quasi-WarQuasi-WarThe Quasi-War was an undeclared war fought mostly at sea between the United States and French Republic from 1798 to 1800. In the United States, the conflict was sometimes also referred to as the Franco-American War, the Pirate Wars, or the Half-War.-Background:The Kingdom of France had been a...
. Less than 200 battle deaths: a few dozen. The franchise in the French DirectoryFrench DirectoryThe Directory was a body of five Directors that held executive power in France following the Convention and preceding the Consulate...
was restricted to a minority of wealthy Frenchmen. In 1797 there was a coup d'étatCoup d'étatA coup d'état state, literally: strike/blow of state)—also known as a coup, putsch, and overthrow—is the sudden, extrajudicial deposition of a government, usually by a small group of the existing state establishment—typically the military—to replace the deposed government with another body; either...
which used troops against the opposition, closed down opposing newspapers, cancelled election results, and condemned hundreds of opponents to exile or death.
- War of 1812War of 1812The War of 1812 was a military conflict fought between the forces of the United States of America and those of the British Empire. The Americans declared war in 1812 for several reasons, including trade restrictions because of Britain's ongoing war with France, impressment of American merchant...
. The franchise in the United States was denied to African-Americans and Women. The British prince regent still retained the final word on ministers and war. Open criticism was punishable as lèse majestéLèse majestéLese-majesty is the crime of violating majesty, an offence against the dignity of a reigning sovereign or against a state.This behavior was first classified as a criminal offence against the dignity of the Roman republic in Ancient Rome...
and dissidents were driven into exile. The franchise was restricted to a small minority.
- Trail of TearsTrail of TearsThe Trail of Tears is a name given to the forced relocation and movement of Native American nations from southeastern parts of the United States following the Indian Removal Act of 1830...
. The Cherokees had created a republican constitution in 1827 that in theory had many democratic rights. However, the nation allowed slaveholding and became increasingly authoritarian, in the end beating, censoring and even murdering those advocating a voluntary removal. The state of GeorgiaGeorgia (U.S. state)Georgia is a state located in the southeastern United States. It was established in 1732, the last of the original Thirteen Colonies. The state is named after King George II of Great Britain. Georgia was the fourth state to ratify the United States Constitution, on January 2, 1788...
decreed that the government was dissolved in 1828 which was before three years had passed since the creation of the constitution. No battle deaths.
- Mexican-American War. Mexican President Mariano ParedesMariano ParedesMariano Paredes y Arrillaga was a conservative Mexican general and president. He took power in a coup d'etat in 1846. He was the president at the start of the Mexican-American War.-Early career:...
was a general who took power in a coup d'étatCoup d'étatA coup d'état state, literally: strike/blow of state)—also known as a coup, putsch, and overthrow—is the sudden, extrajudicial deposition of a government, usually by a small group of the existing state establishment—typically the military—to replace the deposed government with another body; either...
.
- SonderbundSonderbundThe Sonderbund War of November 1847 was a civil war in Switzerland. It ensued after seven Catholic cantons formed the Sonderbund in 1845 in order to protect their interests against a centralization of power...
War. Less than 200 battle deaths: fewer than a hundred. Democracy was less than 3 years old in ZürichZürichZurich is the largest city in Switzerland and the capital of the canton of Zurich. It is located in central Switzerland at the northwestern tip of Lake Zurich...
which was the leading Protestant CantonCantons of SwitzerlandThe 26 cantons of Switzerland are the member states of the federal state of Switzerland. Each canton was a fully sovereign state with its own borders, army and currency from the Treaty of Westphalia until the establishment of the Swiss federal state in 1848...
. The Catholic Cantons restricted the suffrage to Catholic men and in many also to a group that descended from the original inhabitants. The Protestants and liberals attempted a rebellion in Catholic LucerneLucerneLucerne is a city in north-central Switzerland, in the German-speaking portion of that country. Lucerne is the capital of the Canton of Lucerne and the capital of the district of the same name. With a population of about 76,200 people, Lucerne is the most populous city in Central Switzerland, and...
but were defeated. Some fled what they called a Catholic "reign of terror". Lucerne announced that Jesuits would be responsible for the educational system. This was perceived as evidence that Lucerne was now a regime under the thumb of the autocratic Pope. A private expedition of volunteers tried to "liberate" Lucerne but failed. The perceptions of nondemocracy was strengthened when the Catholic Cantons refused to comply with the majority of the Swiss Federal Council and turned for aid to foreign Catholic powers like the Habsburgs.
- The war between the French Second RepublicFrench Second RepublicThe French Second Republic was the republican government of France between the 1848 Revolution and the coup by Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte which initiated the Second Empire. It officially adopted the motto Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité...
and the Roman Republic (19th century)Roman Republic (19th century)The Roman Republic was a state declared on February 9, 1849, when the government of Papal States was temporarily substituted by a republican government due to Pope Pius IX's flight to Gaeta. The republic was led by Carlo Armellini, Giuseppe Mazzini and Aurelio Saffi...
. Both young democracies less than 3 years old. The Pope had promised to excommunicate those that took part in the elections, leaving only inexperienced radicals in the Roman government during the few months it existed. The French President and later EmperorEmperorAn emperor is a monarch, usually the sovereign ruler of an empire or another type of imperial realm. Empress, the female equivalent, may indicate an emperor's wife or a woman who rules in her own right...
Louis Napoleon needed support from the conservative Catholics and the military. The young French assembly was led to believe that the French expedition was a simple police action in order to restore order in a chaotic regime and to protect Rome from foreign monarchies that planned an intervention. The army officers on the scene distrusted everything republican and despite the unexpected resistance launched an attack and conquered Rome without a mandate from the French assembly. The news of this caused violent uprisings in France. The critics called the military repression of these "the Roman expedition into the interior".
- The Confederate States of AmericaConfederate States of AmericaThe Confederate States of America was a government set up from 1861 to 1865 by 11 Southern slave states of the United States of America that had declared their secession from the U.S...
was less than 3 years old at the start of the war. Less than 2/3 of the adult male population could vote in the Confederacy. The state was created in order to continue the suppression of the black slaveSlaverySlavery is a system under which people are treated as property to be bought and sold, and are forced to work. Slaves can be held against their will from the time of their capture, purchase or birth, and deprived of the right to leave, to refuse to work, or to demand compensation...
population. Wealthy planters played on racial fears in order to avoid criticism from poor whites. Abolitionists were censored and imprisoned even before Lincoln was elected and he was not on the ballot in most parts of the South. In the first elections in the confederacy, voters in many areas again had no choice of candidates.
- War of the PacificWar of the PacificThe War of the Pacific took place in western South America from 1879 through 1883. Chile fought against Bolivia and Peru. Despite cooperation among the three nations in the war against Spain, disputes soon arose over the mineral-rich Peruvian provinces of Tarapaca, Tacna, and Arica, and the...
. Only one man in fifty could vote in ChileChileChile ,officially the Republic of Chile , is a country in South America occupying a long, narrow coastal strip between the Andes mountains to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west. It borders Peru to the north, Bolivia to the northeast, Argentina to the east, and the Drake Passage in the far...
and PeruPeruPeru , officially the Republic of Peru , is a country in western South America. It is bordered on the north by Ecuador and Colombia, on the east by Brazil, on the southeast by Bolivia, on the south by Chile, and on the west by the Pacific Ocean....
.
- First Boer WarFirst Boer WarThe First Boer War also known as the First Anglo-Boer War or the Transvaal War, was fought from 16 December 1880 until 23 March 1881-1877 annexation:...
. Britain was not a liberal democracy before Representation of the People Act 1884Representation of the People Act 1884In the United Kingdom, the Representation of the People Act 1884 and the Redistribution Act of the following year were laws which further extended the suffrage in Britain after the Disraeli Government's Reform Act 1867...
. The new Boer state was less than 3 years old and the Black population was excluded from the franchise.
- Spanish-American WarSpanish-American WarThe Spanish–American War was a conflict in 1898 between Spain and the United States, effectively the result of American intervention in the ongoing Cuban War of Independence...
. In Spain all males could vote and the constitution in theory protected many civil liberties. However, there was the TurnoTurnoAfter almost a whole century of political instability and many civil wars, the aim of the Restoration was to ensure political stability in Spain. Under this plan, El Turno Pacífico was a system put in place by Antonio Cánovas del Castillo whereby the two "official" parties of the Cánovas...
system where corrupt officials manipulated the elections to return to office as many of their own party as they wished, dissidents were jailed, the monarchy retained important powers, and a military coup d'étatCoup d'étatA coup d'état state, literally: strike/blow of state)—also known as a coup, putsch, and overthrow—is the sudden, extrajudicial deposition of a government, usually by a small group of the existing state establishment—typically the military—to replace the deposed government with another body; either...
was feared if Spain would compromise in the negotiations.
- Fashoda IncidentFashoda IncidentThe Fashoda Incident was the climax of imperial territorial disputes between Britain and France in Eastern Africa. A French expedition to Fashoda on the White Nile sought to gain control of the Nile River and thereby force Britain out of Egypt. The British held firm as Britain and France were on...
. No battle deaths.
- Philippine-American WarPhilippine-American WarThe Philippine–American War, also known as the Philippine War of Independence or the Philippine Insurrection , was an armed conflict between a group of Filipino revolutionaries and the United States which arose from the struggle of the First Philippine Republic to gain independence following...
. No democratic elections in the PhilippinesPhilippinesThe Philippines , officially known as the Republic of the Philippines , is a country in Southeast Asia in the western Pacific Ocean. To its north across the Luzon Strait lies Taiwan. West across the South China Sea sits Vietnam...
. The Philippine regime was less than 3 years old. One group of Filipinos had proclaimed a constitution which explicitly gave the power to a small group of landowners and professionals. Emilio AguinaldoEmilio AguinaldoEmilio Aguinaldo y Famy was a Filipino general, politician, and independence leader. He played an instrumental role during the Philippines' revolution against Spain, and the subsequent Philippine-American War or War of Philippine Independence that resisted American occupation...
was declared president without elections. He was suspected of killing two of his main political rivals and nearly all foreign observers saw no chance for genuine self-government, but only different regional groups and bandits. US president William McKinleyWilliam McKinleyWilliam McKinley, Jr. was the 25th President of the United States . He is best known for winning fiercely fought elections, while supporting the gold standard and high tariffs; he succeeded in forging a Republican coalition that for the most part dominated national politics until the 1930s...
stated that it would be immoral to withdraw and leave the Filipinos to fight one another or be occupied by a European power.
- Second Boer WarSecond Boer WarThe Second Boer War was fought from 11 October 1899 until 31 May 1902 between the British Empire and the Afrikaans-speaking Dutch settlers of two independent Boer republics, the South African Republic and the Orange Free State...
. Only males from the minority White population had the right to vote in the Boer states. White Uitlanders were excluded from the franchise in TransvaalSouth African RepublicThe South African Republic , often informally known as the Transvaal Republic, was an independent Boer-ruled country in Southern Africa during the second half of the 19th century. Not to be confused with the present-day Republic of South Africa, it occupied the area later known as the South African...
.
- World War I. The German ReichstagReichstag (German Empire)The Reichstag was the parliament of the North German Confederation , and of the German Reich ....
was elected by all adult males and it did vote overwhelmingly to fund the war. However, German KaiserKaiserKaiser is the German title meaning "Emperor", with Kaiserin being the female equivalent, "Empress". Like the Russian Czar it is directly derived from the Latin Emperors' title of Caesar, which in turn is derived from the personal name of a branch of the gens Julia, to which Gaius Julius Caesar,...
retained most of the power. All the appointments to bureaucracy, the armed forces, and the diplomatic forces were made at his sole discretion. It was common knowledge that the army strongly supported him and would arrest his opponents if he so desired. Open criticisms could be and were punished as lese majesty. The German ChancellorChancellorChancellor is the title of various official positions in the governments of many nations. The original chancellors were the Cancellarii of Roman courts of justice—ushers who sat at the cancelli or lattice work screens of a basilica or law court, which separated the judge and counsel from the...
in 1913 ignored a vote of no confidence, explaining that he served at the discretion of the Kaiser alone. The Reichstag was not consulted regarding the declaration of war, but only informed after the fact that its support was required to approve the allocation of funds for the defence against the Tsarist Russia.
- Anglo-Irish War. The Irish state was less than 3 years old. The initial violence involved rebels acting on their own outside democratic control. Later democratic control of the Irish Republican ArmyIrish Republican ArmyThe Irish Republican Army was an Irish republican revolutionary military organisation. It was descended from the Irish Volunteers, an organisation established on 25 November 1913 that staged the Easter Rising in April 1916...
was doubtful and immediately after the war one part of the IRA tried to overthrow the government in the Irish Civil WarIrish Civil WarThe Irish Civil War was a conflict that accompanied the establishment of the Irish Free State as an entity independent from the United Kingdom within the British Empire....
.
- Occupation of the RuhrOccupation of the RuhrThe Occupation of the Ruhr between 1923 and 1925, by troops from France and Belgium, was a response to the failure of the German Weimar Republic under Chancellor Cuno to pay reparations in the aftermath of World War I.-Background:...
. No battle deaths.
- Continuation WarContinuation WarThe Continuation War was the second of two wars fought between Finland and the Soviet Union during World War II.At the time of the war, the Finnish side used the name to make clear its perceived relationship to the preceding Winter War...
. Eventually the United Kingdom reluctantly issued a formal declaration of warDeclaration of warA declaration of war is a formal act by which one nation goes to war against another. The declaration is a performative speech act by an authorized party of a national government in order to create a state of war between two or more states.The legality of who is competent to declare war varies...
on Finland due to pressure from Soviet Union. Britain sent bombers to impede mining under German control but the British were not attacking Finns. The formal declaration meant nothing but some financial restrictions and the seizure of shipping. Also, Weart argues that Finland had become so authoritarian during the war that it was not a clear democracy anymore: it had imprisoned opposition leaders in a secret prison, and most decisions were taken by a tiny clique of leaders.
- Cod Wars. No battle deaths.
- Turkish Invasion of CyprusTurkish invasion of CyprusThe Turkish invasion of Cyprus, launched on 20 July 1974, was a Turkish military invasion in response to a Greek military junta backed coup in Cyprus...
. Initial hostilities after a coup d'étatCoup d'étatA coup d'état state, literally: strike/blow of state)—also known as a coup, putsch, and overthrow—is the sudden, extrajudicial deposition of a government, usually by a small group of the existing state establishment—typically the military—to replace the deposed government with another body; either...
in Cyprus. Both the later formally democratic regime in Cyprus and that in Turkey were less than 3 years old. The military retained significant influence in both.
- Paquisha Incident. Both young democracies less than 3 years old. Lacking democratic control over the military on both nations. About two hundred battle deaths.
Crusade for democracy
Weart finds that nations have often tried to spread their political system to other nations. He finds many failed attempts to impose democracy by military intervention. For example, during the early part of the 20th century the United States sent soldiers to many nations in Central AmericaCentral America
Central America is the central geographic region of the Americas. It is the southernmost, isthmian portion of the North American continent, which connects with South America on the southeast. When considered part of the unified continental model, it is considered a subcontinent...
in order to hold free elections, but with little long-term success. Those attempts that succeeded, like the occupied Japan
Occupied Japan
At the end of World War II, Japan was occupied by the Allied Powers, led by the United States with contributions also from Australia, India, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. This foreign presence marked the first time in its history that the island nation had been occupied by a foreign power...
after World War II, involved drastic change of the whole political culture. Weart argues that it is generally better to spread democracy by diplomacy and by slowly promoting internal political change.
Statistically-based critiques
One is that Weart makes no attempt to use statisticsStatistics
Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....
to prove that the findings are statistically significant. This would be very difficult to do if including all of human history. The many statistical studies on this subject have almost always limited themselves to the period after 1815. For this period there are prefabricated data sets available which lists for example all battle deaths for all nations. Weart instead uses a well-tried method often used by historians: comparative case studies. Especially by looking at many ambiguous cases it is possible to sift out a set of features that decide if a pair of regimes makes war or avoids it.
Critiques of methodology
Some find Weart's use of sources questionable, in particular regarding the conflicts in antiquityClassical antiquity
Classical antiquity is a broad term for a long period of cultural history centered on the Mediterranean Sea, comprising the interlocking civilizations of ancient Greece and ancient Rome, collectively known as the Greco-Roman world...
: He excludes the earlier wars of Rome
Roman Republic
The Roman Republic was the period of the ancient Roman civilization where the government operated as a republic. It began with the overthrow of the Roman monarchy, traditionally dated around 508 BC, and its replacement by a government headed by two consuls, elected annually by the citizens and...
, including the Punic Wars
Punic Wars
The Punic Wars were a series of three wars fought between Rome and Carthage from 264 B.C.E. to 146 B.C.E. At the time, they were probably the largest wars that had ever taken place...
, stating that there are no primary sources and no reliable secondary sources, for example by a historian who could understand Punic, from Carthage
Carthage
Carthage , implying it was a 'new Tyre') is a major urban centre that has existed for nearly 3,000 years on the Gulf of Tunis, developing from a Phoenician colony of the 1st millennium BC...
, making it impossible to determine the exact form of government at the start of these wars. Yet he uses Xenophon
Xenophon
Xenophon , son of Gryllus, of the deme Erchia of Athens, also known as Xenophon of Athens, was a Greek historian, soldier, mercenary, philosopher and a contemporary and admirer of Socrates...
for other conflicts, who has also been doubted as a reliable source, although not for the same reason. Also, many modern classicists agree that Rome and Carthage were oligarchic republics, "which suggests that excluding them was a largely arbitrary judgment that just happened to leave Weart's central claim intact." However, Weart states that there have been some wars between oligarchies, so these wars would add to this list, not disprove his statement.
The Sicilian Expedition
Sicilian Expedition
The Sicilian Expedition was an Athenian expedition to Sicily from 415 BC to 413 BC, during the Peloponnesian War. The expedition was hampered from the outset by uncertainty in its purpose and command structure—political maneuvering in Athens swelled a lightweight force of twenty ships into a...
is sometimes mentioned as a war between somewhat democratic states. Some democratic peace researchers have excluded the states in Ancient Greece due to the limited franchise and the use of allotment
Sortition
In politics, sortition is the selection of decision makers by lottery. The decision-makers are chosen as a random sample from a larger pool of candidates....
to select many government leaders. As noted earlier, Weart classifies Athens as a democracy and argues that this war was actually an example of a war between a democracy and an oligarchy. However, he also states "The possibility that the Athenians were wrong suggests a qualification to our rule. Instead of saying that well-established democracies do not make war on their own kind, perhaps we should say that they do not make war on other states they perceive to be democracies." Critics argue that there is no ancient evidence for this perception, and that the major source on Syracuse democracy is Thucydides
Thucydides
Thucydides was a Greek historian and author from Alimos. His History of the Peloponnesian War recounts the 5th century BC war between Sparta and Athens to the year 411 BC...
, the Athenian. Weart states Aristotle
Aristotle
Aristotle was a Greek philosopher and polymath, a student of Plato and teacher of Alexander the Great. His writings cover many subjects, including physics, metaphysics, poetry, theater, music, logic, rhetoric, linguistics, politics, government, ethics, biology, and zoology...
(an Athenian metic
Metic
In ancient Greece, the term metic referred to a resident alien, one who did not have citizen rights in his or her Greek city-state of residence....
), the only scholar who ever possessed the documents required to study the constitution of Syracuse, carefully avoided calling Syracuse a democracy. One of the main reason for the Sicilian Expedition
Sicilian Expedition
The Sicilian Expedition was an Athenian expedition to Sicily from 415 BC to 413 BC, during the Peloponnesian War. The expedition was hampered from the outset by uncertainty in its purpose and command structure—political maneuvering in Athens swelled a lightweight force of twenty ships into a...
was that Syracuse was reported to have violent factional strife. Help from an inside group was essential since the Greeks lacked effective siege
Siege
A siege is a military blockade of a city or fortress with the intent of conquering by attrition or assault. The term derives from sedere, Latin for "to sit". Generally speaking, siege warfare is a form of constant, low intensity conflict characterized by one party holding a strong, static...
machinery and the expedition was ill-suited for the alternative long wait in order to starve the defenders. In every other known case when cities were betrayed to an Athenian army, it was by a democratic faction. Furthermore, scholars have argued that Thucydides
Thucydides
Thucydides was a Greek historian and author from Alimos. His History of the Peloponnesian War recounts the 5th century BC war between Sparta and Athens to the year 411 BC...
had a distaste of democracy which affected his descriptions and evaluations. Weart's argument regarding the Sicilian Expedition is similar to the position of the prominent scholar G.E.M. de Ste. Croix.
The same review also includes a list of possible wars between Greek oligarchies, including the recurrent wars between Sparta
Sparta
Sparta or Lacedaemon, was a prominent city-state in ancient Greece, situated on the banks of the River Eurotas in Laconia, in south-eastern Peloponnese. It emerged as a political entity around the 10th century BC, when the invading Dorians subjugated the local, non-Dorian population. From c...
and Argos
Argos
Argos is a city and a former municipality in Argolis, Peloponnese, Greece. Since the 2011 local government reform it is part of the municipality Argos-Mykines, of which it is a municipal unit. It is 11 kilometres from Nafplion, which was its historic harbour...
. Weart mentions these wars in a footnote with references where he states that Argos was a democracy.
Alternate explanations for democratic peace
JM Owen, in a generally friendly review, questions Weart's conclusion that universal democracy will mean lasting peace. If Weart's explanation for the democratic peace is true and this also depends on perception, then democratic leaders may misperceive each other as authoritarian. More seriously, if the outgroup of oligarchs disappears, what will prevent the democracies from dividing into a new ingroup and outgroup? (Weart later suggested there would be a tendency to promote an internal outgroup such as criminals, perverts, or terrorists.)There are many other proposed explanations for the democratic peace. For example, a game-theoretic explanation for the democratic peace is that the public and the open debate in democracies send clear and reliable information regarding the intentions to other states. In contrast, it is difficult to know the intentions of nondemocratic leaders, what effect concessions will have, and if promises will be kept. Thus there will be mistrust and unwillingness to make concessions if at least one of the parties in a dispute is a nondemocracy.