Population decline
Encyclopedia
Population
decline can refer to the decline in population of any organism, but this article refers to population decline in humans. It is a term usually used to describe any great reduction in a human population. It can be used to refer to long-term demographic trends, as in urban decay
or rural flight
, but it is also commonly employed to describe large reductions in population due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.
. It can be caused for several reasons; notable ones include sub-replacement fertility
(along with limited immigration
), heavy emigration
, disease
, famine
, and war
. History is replete with examples of large scale depopulations. Many wars, for example, have been accompanied by significant depopulations. Prior to the 20th century, population decline was mostly observed due to disease, starvation and/or emigration. The Black Death
in Europe, the arrival of Old World
diseases to the Americas
, the tsetse fly
invasion of the Waterberg Massif in South Africa
, and the Great Irish Famine have all caused sizable population declines. In modern times, the AIDS
epidemic
has caused declines in the population of some African countries. Less frequently, population declines are caused by genocide
or mass execution; for example, in the 1970s, the population of Cambodia
underwent a period of decline due to wide-scale executions by the Khmer Rouge
.
Sometimes the term underpopulation is applied in the context of a specific economic system. It does not relate to carrying capacity, and is not a term in opposition to overpopulation
, which deals with the total possible population that can be sustained by available food, water, sanitation and other infrastructure. "Underpopulation" is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support its current economic system. Thus the term has nothing to do with the biological aspects of carrying capacity
, but is an economic term employed to imply that the transfer payment schemes of some developed countries might fail once the population declines to a certain point. An example would be if retirees were supported through a social security
system which does not invest savings, and then a large emigration movement occurred. In this case, the younger generation may not be able to support the older generation.
to which indigenous
peoples had no resistance. These factors, particularly the latter, sometimes had a devastating impact on the indigenous inhabitants.
Some notable historical examples of large depopulation of entire continents include:
Some examples of depopulation of large regions brought about mainly by warfare include:
Famine
has also frequently played a role in depopulation, whether as a result of war, climatic conditions, human incompetence and so on.
According to 2002 reports by the United Nations
Population Division and the US Census Bureau
, population decline is occurring today in some regions. According to the UN, below-replacement fertility
is expected in 75% of the developed world by the year 2050. The US Census Bureau notes that the 74 million people added to the world's population in 2002 were fewer than the high of 87 million people added in 1989–1990. The annual growth rate was 1.2 percent, down from the high of 2.2 percent in 1963-64.
"Census Bureau projections show this slowdown in population growth continuing into the foreseeable future," stated the Bureau's brief on the findings. "Census Bureau projections suggest that the level of fertility in many countries will drop below replacement level before 2050...
In 1990 the world's women, on average, were giving birth to 3.3 children over their lifetimes. By 2002 the average was 2.6, and by 2009, 2.5. This is marginally above the global replacement fertility of 2.33. This fall has been accompanied by a decline in the world's population growth rate and in the actual annual population increase.
rates as well as high death rates in the former Soviet Union and its former allies are the principal issues related to any regional population decline. However, governments can influence the speed of the decline, including measures to halt, slow or suspend decline. Among such measures include pro-birth policies and subsidies, media influence, immigration, bolstering healthcare and laws aimed at rooting out vice (lowering death rates). Such is the case in Russia and Armenia, as well as many Western European nations who have used immigration and other policies as a means of suspending or slowing population decline. Therefore although very long term trends may favor accelerating population decline, short term trends may slow decline or even reverse from decline to growth and back and so on, creating seemingly conflicting statistical data.
A great example of changing trends occurring over a century is Ireland
.
persons, indigenous people, and undocumented immigrants or long stay foreign residents. Political instability can render an area within a nation's count unreliable for comparison.
A common misreading is due to time. Populations on the verge of decline could rise in summer and decline in winter as deaths increase in winter in cold regions, similarly, census dates over too long a time range could show a rise when a country has already tipped into decline. Therefore, numerous sets of statistics should be interpreted to get an idea of a trend.
through to Eastern Europe through Russia
including Kazakhstan
, Ukraine
, Belarus
, Moldova
, Estonia
, Latvia
, Lithuania
, Bulgaria
, Georgia
, Armenia
, Bosnia
, Croatia
, Slovenia
, Germany
, Hungary
, and now Italy
. Countries rapidly approaching long term population declines (but currently still growing, albeit slowly) include Greece
, Spain
, Cuba
, Uruguay
, Denmark
, Finland
, Austria
and Lesotho
.
Yet some of these very nations like Russia have claimed to have suspended or nearly suspended population decline as of 2010. Kazakhstan
's population is now growing, and the 2009 Census reported over 16 million people.
Many nations in Western Europe (and the EU as a whole) today would have declining populations if it were not for international immigration. The total population of the continent of Europe (including Russia and other non-EU countries) already peaked around the year 2000 and as of 2004 is falling.
AIDS
plays some role in population decline; however, data available suggests that, even with high AIDS mortality, fertility rates in Africa are sufficiently high, so that overpopulation
trends continue.
, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate the excess of deaths over births. A long-term decline is accompanied by population aging and creates an increase in the ratio of retirees
to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over time.
, Turkmenistan
, Tajikistan
, Kyrgyzstan
, Azerbaijan
) as high birth rates are traditional. Much of Eastern Europe has lost population due to migration to Western Europe. In Eastern Europe
and Russia
, natality fell abruptly after the end of the Soviet Union
, and death rates generally rose. Together these nations occupy over 8000000 square miles (20,719,904.9 km²) and are home to over 400 million people (less than six percent of the world population), but if current trends continue, more of the developed world and some of the developing world could join this trend.
, the population has fluctuated dramatically. The population was 6.53 million in 1841, and dropped due to the Irish famine to under 3 million by the 1930s, and began rising, in 2011 to 4.58 million.
recorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001.
This represents a 21.3% decline since the peak, and some 11.5% since 2001.
population declined from 15.8 million to 14.95 million, meanwhile the total population increased from 33 million to over 37 million from 2000 to 2010 censuses. In Western Europe, the population of people of local origins have been in absolute decline for a number of years while total populations have shown increases.
Populations of certain ethnic groups worldwide has slowed down considerably while others have marched on. In particular, 5 groups:
North American Whites (~230 million), Europeans in Europe (~700 million), Japanese (~128 million), Chinese (~1380 million), and Koreans (~73 million) population growth rates have declined sharply to very modest growth, and all these groups are expected to see population declines in the next 20–30 years, if they aren't seeing them already. Ethnic Thais (~65 million) are also expected to follow not far behind, although their cousins the ethnic Lao birth rates still in the high range.
which has borrowed extensively for repayment by younger generations.
Economically declining populations are thought to lead to deflation
, which has a number of effects. However, Russia, whose economy has been rapidly growing (8.1% in 2007) even as its population is shrinking, currently has high inflation (12% as of late 2007). For an agricultural or mining economy the average standard of living
in a declining population, at least in terms of material possessions, will tend to rise as the amount of land and resources per person will be higher.
But for many industrial economies, the opposite might be true as those economies often thrive on mortgaging the future by way of debt
and retirement transfer payments that originally assumed rising tax revenues from a continually expanding population base (i.e. there would be fewer taxpayers in a declining population). However, standard of living
does not necessarily correlate with quality of life
, which may increase as the population declines due to presumably reduced pollution and consumption of natural resources, and the decline of social pressures and overutilization of resources that can be linked to overpopulation. There may also be reduced pressure on infrastructure
, education, and other services as well.
The period immediately after the Black Death, for instance, was one of great prosperity, as people had inheritances from many different family members. However, that situation was not comparable, as it did not have a continually declining population, but rather a sudden shock, followed by population increase. Predictions of the net economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one.
A declining population due to low fertility rates will also be accompanied by population ageing
which can contribute problems for a society. This can adversely affect the quality of life for the young is an increased social and economic pressure in the sense that they have to increase per-capita output in order to support an infrastructure with costly, intensive care for the oldest among their population, removing focus from the planning of elder and future families and therefore further degrading rates of procreation. The decade-long economic malaise of Japan
and Germany
in the 1990s and early 2000s is often linked to these demographic problems, though there were also several other causes. The worst case scenario is a situation where the population falls too low a level to support a current social welfare economic system, which is more likely to occur with a rapid decline than with a more gradual one.
The economies of both Japan
and Germany
both went into recovery around the time their populations just began to decline (2003–2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before. Russia
's economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population has been shrinking since 1992-93 (the decline is now decelerating). In addition, many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline. However, it may be argued that this renewed growth is in spite of population decline rather than because of it, and economic growth in these countries would potentially be greater if they were not undergoing such demographic decline. For example, Russia has become quite wealthy selling fossil fuels such as oil, which are now high-priced, and in addition, its economy has expanded from a very low nadir due to the economic crisis of the late 1990s. And although Japan and Germany have recovered somewhat from having been in a deflationary recession and stagnation, respectively, for the past decade, their recoveries seem to have been quite tepid. Both countries fell into the global recession of 2008-2009, but are now recovering once again, being among the first countries to recover.
In a country with a declining population, the growth of GDP per capita is higher than the growth of GDP. For example, Japan has a higher growth per capita than the United States, even though the US GDP growth is higher than Japan's. Even when GDP growth is zero or negative, the GDP growth per capita can still be positive (by definition) if the population is shrinking faster than the GDP.
A declining population (regardless of the cause) can also create a labor shortage
, which can have a number of positive and negative effects. While some labor-intensive sectors of the economy may be hurt if the shortage is severe enough, others may adequately compensate by increased outsourcing and/or automation. Initially, the labor participation rates (which are low in many countries) can also be increased to temporarily reduce or delay the shortage. On the positive side, such a shortage increases the demand for labor, which can potentially result in a reduced unemployment rate as well as higher wages. Conversely, a high population means labour is in plentiful supply, which usually means wages will be lower. This is seen in countries like China and India.
A smaller national population can also have geo-strategic effects, but the correlation between population and power is a tenuous one, especially in today's world.
President Vladimir Putin
directed Parliament to adopt a 10-year program to stop the sharp decline in Russia
's population, principally by offering financial incentives and subsidies to encourage women to have children. Australia
currently offers a $5,000 bonus
for every baby plus additional fortnightly payments, a free immunization scheme and recently proposed to pay all child care costs for women who want to work. Many European countries, including France
, Italy
, Germany
and Poland
, have offered some combination of bonuses and monthly payments to families. Some Japan
ese localities, facing significant population loss, are offering economic incentives. Yamatsuri, a town of 7,000 just north of Tokyo
, offers parents $4,600 for the birth of a child and $460 a year for 10 years. The Republic of Singapore has a particularly lavish plan: $3,000 for the first child, $9,000 in cash and savings for the second; and up to $18,000 each for the third and fourth. The effectiveness of these policies is currently the subject of debate.
Paid maternity and paternity leave policies
can also be used as an incentive. Sweden built up an extensive welfare state
from the 1930s and onward, partly as a consequence of the debate following Crisis in the Population Question
, published in 1934. Today, Sweden has generous parental leave where parents are entitled to share 16 months paid leave per child, the cost divided between both employer and State.
, Bulgaria
and Russia
in the period starting about 1990.
Case studies:
Population
A population is all the organisms that both belong to the same group or species and live in the same geographical area. The area that is used to define a sexual population is such that inter-breeding is possible between any pair within the area and more probable than cross-breeding with individuals...
decline can refer to the decline in population of any organism, but this article refers to population decline in humans. It is a term usually used to describe any great reduction in a human population. It can be used to refer to long-term demographic trends, as in urban decay
Urban decay
Urban decay is the process whereby a previously functioning city, or part of a city, falls into disrepair and decrepitude...
or rural flight
Rural flight
Rural flight is a term used to describe the migratory patterns of peoples from rural areas into urban areas.In modern times, it often occurs in a region following the industrialization of agriculture when fewer people are needed to bring the same amount of agricultural output to market and related...
, but it is also commonly employed to describe large reductions in population due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.
Definition
Sometimes known as depopulation, population decline is the reduction over time in a region's censusCensus
A census is the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular population. The term is used mostly in connection with national population and housing censuses; other common...
. It can be caused for several reasons; notable ones include sub-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
(along with limited immigration
Immigration
Immigration is the act of foreigners passing or coming into a country for the purpose of permanent residence...
), heavy emigration
Emigration
Emigration is the act of leaving one's country or region to settle in another. It is the same as immigration but from the perspective of the country of origin. Human movement before the establishment of political boundaries or within one state is termed migration. There are many reasons why people...
, disease
Disease
A disease is an abnormal condition affecting the body of an organism. It is often construed to be a medical condition associated with specific symptoms and signs. It may be caused by external factors, such as infectious disease, or it may be caused by internal dysfunctions, such as autoimmune...
, famine
Famine
A famine is a widespread scarcity of food, caused by several factors including crop failure, overpopulation, or government policies. This phenomenon is usually accompanied or followed by regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality. Every continent in the world has...
, and war
War
War is a state of organized, armed, and often prolonged conflict carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression, social disruption, and usually high mortality. War should be understood as an actual, intentional and widespread armed conflict between political...
. History is replete with examples of large scale depopulations. Many wars, for example, have been accompanied by significant depopulations. Prior to the 20th century, population decline was mostly observed due to disease, starvation and/or emigration. The Black Death
Black Death
The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350. Of several competing theories, the dominant explanation for the Black Death is the plague theory, which attributes the outbreak to the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Thought to have...
in Europe, the arrival of Old World
Old World
The Old World consists of those parts of the world known to classical antiquity and the European Middle Ages. It is used in the context of, and contrast with, the "New World" ....
diseases to the Americas
Americas
The Americas, or America , are lands in the Western hemisphere, also known as the New World. In English, the plural form the Americas is often used to refer to the landmasses of North America and South America with their associated islands and regions, while the singular form America is primarily...
, the tsetse fly
Tsetse fly
Tsetse , sometimes spelled tzetze and also known as tik-tik flies, are large biting flies that inhabit much of mid-continental Africa between the Sahara and the Kalahari deserts. They live by feeding on the blood of vertebrate animals and are the primary biological vectors of trypanosomes, which...
invasion of the Waterberg Massif in South Africa
South Africa
The Republic of South Africa is a country in southern Africa. Located at the southern tip of Africa, it is divided into nine provinces, with of coastline on the Atlantic and Indian oceans...
, and the Great Irish Famine have all caused sizable population declines. In modern times, the AIDS
AIDS
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a disease of the human immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus...
epidemic
Epidemic
In epidemiology, an epidemic , occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is expected based on recent experience...
has caused declines in the population of some African countries. Less frequently, population declines are caused by genocide
Genocide
Genocide is defined as "the deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group", though what constitutes enough of a "part" to qualify as genocide has been subject to much debate by legal scholars...
or mass execution; for example, in the 1970s, the population of Cambodia
Cambodia
Cambodia , officially known as the Kingdom of Cambodia, is a country located in the southern portion of the Indochina Peninsula in Southeast Asia...
underwent a period of decline due to wide-scale executions by the Khmer Rouge
Khmer Rouge
The Khmer Rouge literally translated as Red Cambodians was the name given to the followers of the Communist Party of Kampuchea, who were the ruling party in Cambodia from 1975 to 1979, led by Pol Pot, Nuon Chea, Ieng Sary, Son Sen and Khieu Samphan...
.
Sometimes the term underpopulation is applied in the context of a specific economic system. It does not relate to carrying capacity, and is not a term in opposition to overpopulation
Overpopulation
Overpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth...
, which deals with the total possible population that can be sustained by available food, water, sanitation and other infrastructure. "Underpopulation" is usually defined as a state in which a country's population has declined too much to support its current economic system. Thus the term has nothing to do with the biological aspects of carrying capacity
Carrying capacity
The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment...
, but is an economic term employed to imply that the transfer payment schemes of some developed countries might fail once the population declines to a certain point. An example would be if retirees were supported through a social security
Social security
Social security is primarily a social insurance program providing social protection or protection against socially recognized conditions, including poverty, old age, disability, unemployment and others. Social security may refer to:...
system which does not invest savings, and then a large emigration movement occurred. In this case, the younger generation may not be able to support the older generation.
Historical Background
During the Age of Imperialism, Europeans migrating to new continents brought with them not only devastating new means of waging warfare but also, often inadvertently, infectious diseases such as smallpoxSmallpox
Smallpox was an infectious disease unique to humans, caused by either of two virus variants, Variola major and Variola minor. The disease is also known by the Latin names Variola or Variola vera, which is a derivative of the Latin varius, meaning "spotted", or varus, meaning "pimple"...
to which indigenous
Indigenous peoples
Indigenous peoples are ethnic groups that are defined as indigenous according to one of the various definitions of the term, there is no universally accepted definition but most of which carry connotations of being the "original inhabitants" of a territory....
peoples had no resistance. These factors, particularly the latter, sometimes had a devastating impact on the indigenous inhabitants.
Some notable historical examples of large depopulation of entire continents include:
- The Plague of JustinianPlague of JustinianThe Plague of Justinian was a pandemic that afflicted the Eastern Roman Empire , including its capital Constantinople, in 541–542 AD. It was one of the greatest plagues in history. The most commonly accepted cause of the pandemic is bubonic plague, which later became infamous for either causing or...
in EuropeEuropeEurope is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
and the Middle EastMiddle EastThe Middle East is a region that encompasses Western Asia and Northern Africa. It is often used as a synonym for Near East, in opposition to Far East...
; - The Black DeathBlack DeathThe Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350. Of several competing theories, the dominant explanation for the Black Death is the plague theory, which attributes the outbreak to the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Thought to have...
in EuropeEuropeEurope is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
, AsiaAsiaAsia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in the eastern and northern hemispheres. It covers 8.7% of the Earth's total surface area and with approximately 3.879 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current human population...
and the Middle EastMiddle EastThe Middle East is a region that encompasses Western Asia and Northern Africa. It is often used as a synonym for Near East, in opposition to Far East...
in the Middle AgesMiddle AgesThe Middle Ages is a periodization of European history from the 5th century to the 15th century. The Middle Ages follows the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476 and precedes the Early Modern Era. It is the middle period of a three-period division of Western history: Classic, Medieval and Modern...
; - The impact of European colonialismColonialismColonialism is the establishment, maintenance, acquisition and expansion of colonies in one territory by people from another territory. It is a process whereby the metropole claims sovereignty over the colony and the social structure, government, and economics of the colony are changed by...
and accompanying introduced infectious diseases in the AmericasAmericasThe Americas, or America , are lands in the Western hemisphere, also known as the New World. In English, the plural form the Americas is often used to refer to the landmasses of North America and South America with their associated islands and regions, while the singular form America is primarily...
and AustraliaAustraliaAustralia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is the world's sixth-largest country by total area...
.
Some examples of depopulation of large regions brought about mainly by warfare include:
- The Mongol ConquestsMongol EmpireThe Mongol Empire , initially named as Greater Mongol State was a great empire during the 13th and 14th centuries...
of ChinaChinaChinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
, Russia and the Middle EastMiddle EastThe Middle East is a region that encompasses Western Asia and Northern Africa. It is often used as a synonym for Near East, in opposition to Far East...
; - Tamurlane's military campaigns in the Middle and Near EastNear EastThe Near East is a geographical term that covers different countries for geographers, archeologists, and historians, on the one hand, and for political scientists, economists, and journalists, on the other...
; - The Thirty Years War in Europe;
Famine
Famine
A famine is a widespread scarcity of food, caused by several factors including crop failure, overpopulation, or government policies. This phenomenon is usually accompanied or followed by regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality. Every continent in the world has...
has also frequently played a role in depopulation, whether as a result of war, climatic conditions, human incompetence and so on.
According to 2002 reports by the United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
Population Division and the US Census Bureau
United States Census Bureau
The United States Census Bureau is the government agency that is responsible for the United States Census. It also gathers other national demographic and economic data...
, population decline is occurring today in some regions. According to the UN, below-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
is expected in 75% of the developed world by the year 2050. The US Census Bureau notes that the 74 million people added to the world's population in 2002 were fewer than the high of 87 million people added in 1989–1990. The annual growth rate was 1.2 percent, down from the high of 2.2 percent in 1963-64.
"Census Bureau projections show this slowdown in population growth continuing into the foreseeable future," stated the Bureau's brief on the findings. "Census Bureau projections suggest that the level of fertility in many countries will drop below replacement level before 2050...
In 1990 the world's women, on average, were giving birth to 3.3 children over their lifetimes. By 2002 the average was 2.6, and by 2009, 2.5. This is marginally above the global replacement fertility of 2.33. This fall has been accompanied by a decline in the world's population growth rate and in the actual annual population increase.
Changing trends
Today, emigration and sub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
rates as well as high death rates in the former Soviet Union and its former allies are the principal issues related to any regional population decline. However, governments can influence the speed of the decline, including measures to halt, slow or suspend decline. Among such measures include pro-birth policies and subsidies, media influence, immigration, bolstering healthcare and laws aimed at rooting out vice (lowering death rates). Such is the case in Russia and Armenia, as well as many Western European nations who have used immigration and other policies as a means of suspending or slowing population decline. Therefore although very long term trends may favor accelerating population decline, short term trends may slow decline or even reverse from decline to growth and back and so on, creating seemingly conflicting statistical data.
A great example of changing trends occurring over a century is Ireland
Irish Population Analysis
The population of Ireland in 2008 was approximately 6.1 million comprising 4.35 million in the Republic of Ireland with another 1.75 million in Northern Ireland. Although this is a significant growth over recent years, it is lower than historical figures....
.
Statistical misreadings
Statistical data, especially comparing only two sets of figures, can show an incorrect population trend. A nation's population could be increasing, but an one-off event could have resulted in decline and vice-versa. Nations can acquire territory or lose territory and people, consider people citizens they previously denied citizenship to, e.g. statelessStateless
- Society :* Anarchy* Stateless communism, which Karl Marx predicted would follow capitalism and socialism* Stateless nation, a group of people without a nation-state* Stateless society, a society that is not governed by a state...
persons, indigenous people, and undocumented immigrants or long stay foreign residents. Political instability can render an area within a nation's count unreliable for comparison.
A common misreading is due to time. Populations on the verge of decline could rise in summer and decline in winter as deaths increase in winter in cold regions, similarly, census dates over too long a time range could show a rise when a country has already tipped into decline. Therefore, numerous sets of statistics should be interpreted to get an idea of a trend.
Decline by nation
A number of nations today are facing long term population decline, stretching from North Asia (JapanJapan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
through to Eastern Europe through Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
including Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental country in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Ranked as the ninth largest country in the world, it is also the world's largest landlocked country; its territory of is greater than Western Europe...
, Ukraine
Ukraine
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It has an area of 603,628 km², making it the second largest contiguous country on the European continent, after Russia...
, Belarus
Belarus
Belarus , officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, bordered clockwise by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Its capital is Minsk; other major cities include Brest, Grodno , Gomel ,...
, Moldova
Moldova
Moldova , officially the Republic of Moldova is a landlocked state in Eastern Europe, located between Romania to the West and Ukraine to the North, East and South. It declared itself an independent state with the same boundaries as the preceding Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991, as part...
, Estonia
Estonia
Estonia , officially the Republic of Estonia , is a state in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea, to the south by Latvia , and to the east by Lake Peipsi and the Russian Federation . Across the Baltic Sea lies...
, Latvia
Latvia
Latvia , officially the Republic of Latvia , is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by Estonia , to the south by Lithuania , to the east by the Russian Federation , to the southeast by Belarus and shares maritime borders to the west with Sweden...
, Lithuania
Lithuania
Lithuania , officially the Republic of Lithuania is a country in Northern Europe, the biggest of the three Baltic states. It is situated along the southeastern shore of the Baltic Sea, whereby to the west lie Sweden and Denmark...
, Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a parliamentary democracy within a unitary constitutional republic in Southeast Europe. The country borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east...
, Georgia
Georgia (country)
Georgia is a sovereign state in the Caucasus region of Eurasia. Located at the crossroads of Western Asia and Eastern Europe, it is bounded to the west by the Black Sea, to the north by Russia, to the southwest by Turkey, to the south by Armenia, and to the southeast by Azerbaijan. The capital of...
, Armenia
Armenia
Armenia , officially the Republic of Armenia , is a landlocked mountainous country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia...
, Bosnia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina , sometimes called Bosnia-Herzegovina or simply Bosnia, is a country in Southern Europe, on the Balkan Peninsula. Bordered by Croatia to the north, west and south, Serbia to the east, and Montenegro to the southeast, Bosnia and Herzegovina is almost landlocked, except for the...
, Croatia
Croatia
Croatia , officially the Republic of Croatia , is a unitary democratic parliamentary republic in Europe at the crossroads of the Mitteleuropa, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean. Its capital and largest city is Zagreb. The country is divided into 20 counties and the city of Zagreb. Croatia covers ...
, Slovenia
Slovenia
Slovenia , officially the Republic of Slovenia , is a country in Central and Southeastern Europe touching the Alps and bordering the Mediterranean. Slovenia borders Italy to the west, Croatia to the south and east, Hungary to the northeast, and Austria to the north, and also has a small portion of...
, Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
, Hungary
Hungary
Hungary , officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in Central Europe. It is situated in the Carpathian Basin and is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine and Romania to the east, Serbia and Croatia to the south, Slovenia to the southwest and Austria to the west. The...
, and now Italy
Italy
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
. Countries rapidly approaching long term population declines (but currently still growing, albeit slowly) include Greece
Greece
Greece , officially the Hellenic Republic , and historically Hellas or the Republic of Greece in English, is a country in southeastern Europe....
, Spain
Spain
Spain , officially the Kingdom of Spain languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Spain's official name is as follows:;;;;;;), is a country and member state of the European Union located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula...
, Cuba
Cuba
The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...
, Uruguay
Uruguay
Uruguay ,officially the Oriental Republic of Uruguay,sometimes the Eastern Republic of Uruguay; ) is a country in the southeastern part of South America. It is home to some 3.5 million people, of whom 1.8 million live in the capital Montevideo and its metropolitan area...
, Denmark
Denmark
Denmark is a Scandinavian country in Northern Europe. The countries of Denmark and Greenland, as well as the Faroe Islands, constitute the Kingdom of Denmark . It is the southernmost of the Nordic countries, southwest of Sweden and south of Norway, and bordered to the south by Germany. Denmark...
, Finland
Finland
Finland , officially the Republic of Finland, is a Nordic country situated in the Fennoscandian region of Northern Europe. It is bordered by Sweden in the west, Norway in the north and Russia in the east, while Estonia lies to its south across the Gulf of Finland.Around 5.4 million people reside...
, Austria
Austria
Austria , officially the Republic of Austria , is a landlocked country of roughly 8.4 million people in Central Europe. It is bordered by the Czech Republic and Germany to the north, Slovakia and Hungary to the east, Slovenia and Italy to the south, and Switzerland and Liechtenstein to the...
and Lesotho
Lesotho
Lesotho , officially the Kingdom of Lesotho, is a landlocked country and enclave, surrounded by the Republic of South Africa. It is just over in size with a population of approximately 2,067,000. Its capital and largest city is Maseru. Lesotho is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. The name...
.
Yet some of these very nations like Russia have claimed to have suspended or nearly suspended population decline as of 2010. Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan , officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental country in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Ranked as the ninth largest country in the world, it is also the world's largest landlocked country; its territory of is greater than Western Europe...
's population is now growing, and the 2009 Census reported over 16 million people.
Many nations in Western Europe (and the EU as a whole) today would have declining populations if it were not for international immigration. The total population of the continent of Europe (including Russia and other non-EU countries) already peaked around the year 2000 and as of 2004 is falling.
AIDS
AIDS
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a disease of the human immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus...
plays some role in population decline; however, data available suggests that, even with high AIDS mortality, fertility rates in Africa are sufficiently high, so that overpopulation
Overpopulation
Overpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth...
trends continue.
| Country | Year | Population | Rate of natural decrease in percent |
Main reason for decrease |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmeniaArmenia Armenia , officially the Republic of Armenia , is a landlocked mountainous country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia... |
2009 | 2,967,004 Demographics of Armenia The Demographics of Armenia is about the demographic features of the population of Armenia, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population.... |
0.03 | emigration |
 BelarusBelarus Belarus , officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, bordered clockwise by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Its capital is Minsk; other major cities include Brest, Grodno , Gomel ,... |
2009 | 9,648,533 Demographics of Belarus The Demographics of Belarus is about the demographic features of the population of Belarus, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population... |
0.378 | low birth rate |
 BulgariaBulgaria Bulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a parliamentary democracy within a unitary constitutional republic in Southeast Europe. The country borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east... |
2009 | 7,300,000 Demographics of Bulgaria This article is about the demographic features of the population of Bulgaria, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.79 | low birth rate, high death rate, high rate of abortions, a relatively high level of emigration of young people and a low level of immigration |
 CroatiaCroatia Croatia , officially the Republic of Croatia , is a unitary democratic parliamentary republic in Europe at the crossroads of the Mitteleuropa, the Balkans, and the Mediterranean. Its capital and largest city is Zagreb. The country is divided into 20 counties and the city of Zagreb. Croatia covers ... |
2009 | 4,489,409 Demographics of Croatia The demographic features of the population of Croatia include statistical data collected through censuses, normally conducted in ten-year intervals and analysed by various statistical bureaus since the 1850s. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics performs this task since the 1990s. The latest census in... |
0.052 | low birth rate |
 Czech RepublicCzech Republic The Czech Republic is a landlocked country in Central Europe. The country is bordered by Poland to the northeast, Slovakia to the east, Austria to the south, and Germany to the west and northwest.... |
2009 | 10,211,904 | 0.094 | low birth rate |
 CubaCuba The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city... |
2009 | 11,239,363 Demographics of Cuba This article is about the demographic features of the population of Cuba, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.04 | emigration, low birth rate |
 EstoniaEstonia Estonia , officially the Republic of Estonia , is a state in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by the Gulf of Finland, to the west by the Baltic Sea, to the south by Latvia , and to the east by Lake Peipsi and the Russian Federation . Across the Baltic Sea lies... |
2009 | 1,299,371 Demographics of Estonia The demographics of Estonia in the twenty-first century are the result of historical trends over more than a thousand years, just as for most European countries, but have been disproportionately affected by events in the last half of the twentieth century... |
0.632 | low birth rate |
 GeorgiaGeorgia (country) Georgia is a sovereign state in the Caucasus region of Eurasia. Located at the crossroads of Western Asia and Eastern Europe, it is bounded to the west by the Black Sea, to the north by Russia, to the southwest by Turkey, to the south by Armenia, and to the southeast by Azerbaijan. The capital of... |
2009 | 4,615,807 Demographics of Georgia The Demographics of Georgia is about the demographic features of the population of Georgia, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population.... |
0.325 | emigration |
 GermanyGermany Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate... |
2009 | 82,329,758 Demographics of Germany The Demographics of Germany were determined also by a series of full Census in Germany, with the most recent held in 1987. Since reunification, German authorities rely on a micro census.... |
0.053 | low birth rate |
 GreenlandGreenland Greenland is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of Denmark, located between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe for... |
2009 | 56,000 Demographics of Greenland This article is about the demographic features of the population of Greenland, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
low birth rate | |
 ItalyItaly Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and... |
2009 | 58,126,212 Demographics of Italy This article is about the demographic features of the population of Italy, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Population:... |
0.047 | low birth rate |
 HungaryHungary Hungary , officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in Central Europe. It is situated in the Carpathian Basin and is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine and Romania to the east, Serbia and Croatia to the south, Slovenia to the southwest and Austria to the west. The... |
2009 | 10,031,000 Demographics of Hungary This article is about the demographic features of the population of Hungary, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Historical:... |
0.257 | low birth rate |
 JapanJapan Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south... |
2009 | 127,078,679 Demographics of Japan The demographic features of the population of Japan include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.191 | low birth rate and a low level of immigration |
 LatviaLatvia Latvia , officially the Republic of Latvia , is a country in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. It is bordered to the north by Estonia , to the south by Lithuania , to the east by the Russian Federation , to the southeast by Belarus and shares maritime borders to the west with Sweden... |
2009 | 2,231,503 Demographics of Latvia This article is about the demographic features of the population of the historical territory of Latvia, including population density, ethnic background, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Background:Latvia was... |
0.614 | low birth rate |
 LithuaniaLithuania Lithuania , officially the Republic of Lithuania is a country in Northern Europe, the biggest of the three Baltic states. It is situated along the southeastern shore of the Baltic Sea, whereby to the west lie Sweden and Denmark... |
2009 | 3,555,179 Demographics of Lithuania This article is about the demographic features of the population of Lithuania, including population density, ethnicity, level of education, health, economic status, and religious affiliations.-Prehistory:... |
0.279 | low birth rate |
 Federated States of MicronesiaFederated States of Micronesia The Federated States of Micronesia or FSM is an independent, sovereign island nation, made up of four states from west to east: Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae. It comprises approximately 607 islands with c... |
2009 | 111,000 | 0.238 | emigration |
 MoldovaMoldova Moldova , officially the Republic of Moldova is a landlocked state in Eastern Europe, located between Romania to the West and Ukraine to the North, East and South. It declared itself an independent state with the same boundaries as the preceding Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991, as part... |
2009 | 4,320,748 Demographics of Moldova This article is about the demographic features of the population of Moldova, including distribution, ethnicity, languages, religious affiliation and other statistical data.- Overview of the demographic statistics :... |
0.079 | low birth rate |
 MontenegroMontenegro Montenegro Montenegrin: Crna Gora Црна Гора , meaning "Black Mountain") is a country located in Southeastern Europe. It has a coast on the Adriatic Sea to the south-west and is bordered by Croatia to the west, Bosnia and Herzegovina to the northwest, Serbia to the northeast and Albania to the... |
2009 | 672,180 Demographics of Montenegro This article is about the demographic features of the population of Montenegro, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.- Total population:... |
0.851 | |
 PolandPoland Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north... |
2009 | 38,482,919 Demographics of Poland The Demographics of Poland is about the demographic features of the population of Poland, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.047 | low birth rate |
 South AfricaSouth Africa The Republic of South Africa is a country in southern Africa. Located at the southern tip of Africa, it is divided into nine provinces, with of coastline on the Atlantic and Indian oceans... |
2009 | 50,586,757 Demographics of South Africa The demographics of South Africa encompasses about 50 million people of diverse origins, cultures, languages, and religions. The last census was held in 2001 and the next will be in 2011.... |
0.0401 | "white flight White flight White flight has been a term that originated in the United States, starting in the mid-20th century, and applied to the large-scale migration of whites of various European ancestries from racially mixed urban regions to more racially homogeneous suburban or exurban regions. It was first seen as... ", high incidence of disease (HIV/AIDS) |
 RomaniaRomania Romania is a country located at the crossroads of Central and Southeastern Europe, on the Lower Danube, within and outside the Carpathian arch, bordering on the Black Sea... |
2009 | 22,215,421 Demographics of Romania This article is about the demographic features of the population of Romania, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.147 | low birth rate |
 RussiaRussia Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects... |
2009 | 141,927,297 Demographics of Russia The demographics of Russia is about the demographic features of the population of the Russian Federation, including population growth, population density, ethnic composition, education level, health, economic status, and other aspects of the population.... |
0.177 | high death rate, low birth rate, high rate of abortions, and a low level of immigration |
 SloveniaSlovenia Slovenia , officially the Republic of Slovenia , is a country in Central and Southeastern Europe touching the Alps and bordering the Mediterranean. Slovenia borders Italy to the west, Croatia to the south and east, Hungary to the northeast, and Austria to the north, and also has a small portion of... |
2009 | 2,005,692 Demographics of Slovenia This article is about the demographic features of the population of Slovenia, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Vital statistics :... |
0.113 | |
 SwazilandSwaziland Swaziland, officially the Kingdom of Swaziland , and sometimes called Ngwane or Swatini, is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, bordered to the north, south and west by South Africa, and to the east by Mozambique... |
2009 | 1,123,913 Demographics of Swaziland This article is about the demographic features of the population of Swaziland, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.... |
0.459 | high incidence of disease (HIV AIDS) |
 Trinidad & Tobago |
2009 | 1,229,953 Demographics of Trinidad and Tobago This article is about the demographic features of the population of Trinidad and Tobago, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Ethnic groups:... |
0.102 | emigration |
 UkraineUkraine Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It has an area of 603,628 km², making it the second largest contiguous country on the European continent, after Russia... |
2009 | 45,700,395 Demographics of Ukraine The Demographics of Ukraine is about the demographic features of the population of Ukraine, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population.... |
0.632 | declining births |
 ZimbabweZimbabwe Zimbabwe is a landlocked country located in the southern part of the African continent, between the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers. It is bordered by South Africa to the south, Botswana to the southwest, Zambia and a tip of Namibia to the northwest and Mozambique to the east. Zimbabwe has three... |
2008 | 12,521,000 Demographics of Zimbabwe This article is about the demographic features of the population of Zimbabwe, including population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.-Population:... |
0.787 | high incidence of disease (HIV-AIDS) and emigration due to political oppression |
Long term decline situation
A long-term population decline is typically caused by sub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertility
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate the excess of deaths over births. A long-term decline is accompanied by population aging and creates an increase in the ratio of retirees
Pensioner
In common parlance, a pensioner is a person who has retired, and now collects a pension. This is a term typically used in the United Kingdom and Australia where someone of pensionable age may also be referred to as an 'old age pensioner', or OAP. In the United States, the term retiree is more...
to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over time.
Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Republics
Population is falling due to health factors and low replacement, as well as emigration of ethnic Russians to Russia. Exceptions to this rule is in those ex-Soviet states which have a Muslim majority (UzbekistanUzbekistan
Uzbekistan , officially the Republic of Uzbekistan is a doubly landlocked country in Central Asia and one of the six independent Turkic states. It shares borders with Kazakhstan to the west and to the north, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the east, and Afghanistan and Turkmenistan to the south....
, Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan , formerly also known as Turkmenia is one of the Turkic states in Central Asia. Until 1991, it was a constituent republic of the Soviet Union, the Turkmen Soviet Socialist Republic . Turkmenistan is one of the six independent Turkic states...
, Tajikistan
Tajikistan
Tajikistan , officially the Republic of Tajikistan , is a mountainous landlocked country in Central Asia. Afghanistan borders it to the south, Uzbekistan to the west, Kyrgyzstan to the north, and China to the east....
, Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan , officially the Kyrgyz Republic is one of the world's six independent Turkic states . Located in Central Asia, landlocked and mountainous, Kyrgyzstan is bordered by Kazakhstan to the north, Uzbekistan to the west, Tajikistan to the southwest and China to the east...
, Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan , officially the Republic of Azerbaijan is the largest country in the Caucasus region of Eurasia. Located at the crossroads of Western Asia and Eastern Europe, it is bounded by the Caspian Sea to the east, Russia to the north, Georgia to the northwest, Armenia to the west, and Iran to...
) as high birth rates are traditional. Much of Eastern Europe has lost population due to migration to Western Europe. In Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe is the eastern part of Europe. The term has widely disparate geopolitical, geographical, cultural and socioeconomic readings, which makes it highly context-dependent and even volatile, and there are "almost as many definitions of Eastern Europe as there are scholars of the region"...
and Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
, natality fell abruptly after the end of the Soviet Union
History of post-Soviet Russia
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union on 29 May 1991, the Russian Federation became an independent country.Russia was the largest of the fifteen republics that made up the Soviet Union, accounting for over 60% of the gross domestic product and over 50% of the Soviet population. Russians also...
, and death rates generally rose. Together these nations occupy over 8000000 square miles (20,719,904.9 km²) and are home to over 400 million people (less than six percent of the world population), but if current trends continue, more of the developed world and some of the developing world could join this trend.
Armenia
Armenia's population peaked at 3,604,000 in 1991 and has continued its decline to 3,260,000 estimated in 4Q 2010. This represents a 10.5% decrease in total population since the peak.Belarus
Belarus' population peaked at 10,151,806 in 1989 Census, and then has declined to 9,467,300 in August 1, 2011. This represents a 7.2% decline since the peak.Bulgaria
Bulgaria's population has declined from a peak of 9,009,018 in 1989 and since 2001, has lost yet another 600,000 people, according to 2011 census preliminary figures to no more than 7.3 million. This represents a 23.4% decrease in total population since the peak, and a -0.82% rate in the last 10 years.Greece
Greece's latest census reported its population fell to 10,787,690 from 10,934,097 in 2001 census.Japan
Though Japan has been forecast to decline in population for years, and its monthly and even annual estimates have shown a decline in the past, the 2010 census result figure was slightly higher at just above 128 million than the 2005 census and its population has yet to register a decline between census periods though shorter periods may show declines. The 2010 census figure is expected to be the long term census peak. One factor in higher figures was more Japanese returnees than expected.Hungary
Hungary's population peaked in 1980 at 10,709,000, far earlier than its Soviet cousins, and has continued its decline to under 10 million as of August 2010. This represents a decline of 7.1% since its peak, compared to neighbors to the East the rate has been far more modest averaging -0.23% a year over the period.Ireland
Regarding the current area of the Republic of IrelandRepublic of Ireland
Ireland , described as the Republic of Ireland , is a sovereign state in Europe occupying approximately five-sixths of the island of the same name. Its capital is Dublin. Ireland, which had a population of 4.58 million in 2011, is a constitutional republic governed as a parliamentary democracy,...
, the population has fluctuated dramatically. The population was 6.53 million in 1841, and dropped due to the Irish famine to under 3 million by the 1930s, and began rising, in 2011 to 4.58 million.
Lithuania
When Lithuania split from the Soviet Union, it had a population of 3.7 million, which was close to its peak population. The latest censusrecorded a population of 3.05 million in 2011, down from 3.4 million in 2001.
This represents a 21.3% decline since the peak, and some 11.5% since 2001.
Russia
Russia's total population is no longer declining (thus slowly increasing) due to efforts of the government. Such statistics are subject to change as new information comes in, any increase is very modest. Its peak was 148,689,000 in 1991, and its own estimate was 141,927,297 for January 1, 2011. This represents a 4.7% decrease in total population since the peak.Ukraine
Ukraine census in 1989 resulted in 51,452,034 people, the closest known data to the peak, however than number has plummeted to 45,687,000 as of June 1, 2011. This represents a 12.6% decrease in total population since the peak.Declines within race or ethnicity
Some large and even majority groups within a population have shown an overall decline in numbers while the total population increases. Such is the case in California, where the Non-Hispanic WhitesNon-Hispanic Whites
Non-Hispanic Whites or White, Not Hispanic or Latino are people in the United States, as defined by the Census Bureau, who are of the White race and are not of Hispanic or Latino origin/ethnicity. Hence the designation is exclusive in the sense that it defines who is not included as opposed to who is...
population declined from 15.8 million to 14.95 million, meanwhile the total population increased from 33 million to over 37 million from 2000 to 2010 censuses. In Western Europe, the population of people of local origins have been in absolute decline for a number of years while total populations have shown increases.
Populations of certain ethnic groups worldwide has slowed down considerably while others have marched on. In particular, 5 groups:
North American Whites (~230 million), Europeans in Europe (~700 million), Japanese (~128 million), Chinese (~1380 million), and Koreans (~73 million) population growth rates have declined sharply to very modest growth, and all these groups are expected to see population declines in the next 20–30 years, if they aren't seeing them already. Ethnic Thais (~65 million) are also expected to follow not far behind, although their cousins the ethnic Lao birth rates still in the high range.
Economic consequences
The effects of a declining population can be adverse for an economyEconomy
An economy consists of the economic system of a country or other area; the labor, capital and land resources; and the manufacturing, trade, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area...
which has borrowed extensively for repayment by younger generations.
Economically declining populations are thought to lead to deflation
Deflation (economics)
In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0% . This should not be confused with disinflation, a slow-down in the inflation rate...
, which has a number of effects. However, Russia, whose economy has been rapidly growing (8.1% in 2007) even as its population is shrinking, currently has high inflation (12% as of late 2007). For an agricultural or mining economy the average standard of living
Standard of living
Standard of living is generally measured by standards such as real income per person and poverty rate. Other measures such as access and quality of health care, income growth inequality and educational standards are also used. Examples are access to certain goods , or measures of health such as...
in a declining population, at least in terms of material possessions, will tend to rise as the amount of land and resources per person will be higher.
But for many industrial economies, the opposite might be true as those economies often thrive on mortgaging the future by way of debt
Debt
A debt is an obligation owed by one party to a second party, the creditor; usually this refers to assets granted by the creditor to the debtor, but the term can also be used metaphorically to cover moral obligations and other interactions not based on economic value.A debt is created when a...
and retirement transfer payments that originally assumed rising tax revenues from a continually expanding population base (i.e. there would be fewer taxpayers in a declining population). However, standard of living
Standard of living
Standard of living is generally measured by standards such as real income per person and poverty rate. Other measures such as access and quality of health care, income growth inequality and educational standards are also used. Examples are access to certain goods , or measures of health such as...
does not necessarily correlate with quality of life
Quality of life
The term quality of life is used to evaluate the general well-being of individuals and societies. The term is used in a wide range of contexts, including the fields of international development, healthcare, and politics. Quality of life should not be confused with the concept of standard of...
, which may increase as the population declines due to presumably reduced pollution and consumption of natural resources, and the decline of social pressures and overutilization of resources that can be linked to overpopulation. There may also be reduced pressure on infrastructure
Infrastructure
Infrastructure is basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an economy to function...
, education, and other services as well.
The period immediately after the Black Death, for instance, was one of great prosperity, as people had inheritances from many different family members. However, that situation was not comparable, as it did not have a continually declining population, but rather a sudden shock, followed by population increase. Predictions of the net economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one.
A declining population due to low fertility rates will also be accompanied by population ageing
Population ageing
Population ageing or population aging occurs when the median age of a country or region rises. This happens because of rising life expectancy or declining birth rates. Excepting 18 countries termed 'demographic outliers' by the UN) this process is taking place in every country and region across...
which can contribute problems for a society. This can adversely affect the quality of life for the young is an increased social and economic pressure in the sense that they have to increase per-capita output in order to support an infrastructure with costly, intensive care for the oldest among their population, removing focus from the planning of elder and future families and therefore further degrading rates of procreation. The decade-long economic malaise of Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
and Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
in the 1990s and early 2000s is often linked to these demographic problems, though there were also several other causes. The worst case scenario is a situation where the population falls too low a level to support a current social welfare economic system, which is more likely to occur with a rapid decline than with a more gradual one.
The economies of both Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
and Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
both went into recovery around the time their populations just began to decline (2003–2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before. Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
's economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population has been shrinking since 1992-93 (the decline is now decelerating). In addition, many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline. However, it may be argued that this renewed growth is in spite of population decline rather than because of it, and economic growth in these countries would potentially be greater if they were not undergoing such demographic decline. For example, Russia has become quite wealthy selling fossil fuels such as oil, which are now high-priced, and in addition, its economy has expanded from a very low nadir due to the economic crisis of the late 1990s. And although Japan and Germany have recovered somewhat from having been in a deflationary recession and stagnation, respectively, for the past decade, their recoveries seem to have been quite tepid. Both countries fell into the global recession of 2008-2009, but are now recovering once again, being among the first countries to recover.
In a country with a declining population, the growth of GDP per capita is higher than the growth of GDP. For example, Japan has a higher growth per capita than the United States, even though the US GDP growth is higher than Japan's. Even when GDP growth is zero or negative, the GDP growth per capita can still be positive (by definition) if the population is shrinking faster than the GDP.
A declining population (regardless of the cause) can also create a labor shortage
Labor shortage
In its narrowest definition, a labor shortage is an economic condition in which there are insufficient qualified candidates to fill the market-place demands for employment at any price...
, which can have a number of positive and negative effects. While some labor-intensive sectors of the economy may be hurt if the shortage is severe enough, others may adequately compensate by increased outsourcing and/or automation. Initially, the labor participation rates (which are low in many countries) can also be increased to temporarily reduce or delay the shortage. On the positive side, such a shortage increases the demand for labor, which can potentially result in a reduced unemployment rate as well as higher wages. Conversely, a high population means labour is in plentiful supply, which usually means wages will be lower. This is seen in countries like China and India.
A smaller national population can also have geo-strategic effects, but the correlation between population and power is a tenuous one, especially in today's world.
National efforts to reverse declining populations
Former RussianRussians
The Russian people are an East Slavic ethnic group native to Russia, speaking the Russian language and primarily living in Russia and neighboring countries....
President Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin served as the second President of the Russian Federation and is the current Prime Minister of Russia, as well as chairman of United Russia and Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union of Russia and Belarus. He became acting President on 31 December 1999, when...
directed Parliament to adopt a 10-year program to stop the sharp decline in Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
's population, principally by offering financial incentives and subsidies to encourage women to have children. Australia
Australia
Australia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is the world's sixth-largest country by total area...
currently offers a $5,000 bonus
Baby Bonus
The Baby Bonus is a government payment to parents of a newborn baby or adopted child to assist with the costs of childrearing.- Australia :The government of Andrew Fisher introduced a baby bonus of £5 per child in late 1912. The bonus was available irrespective of marital status and could also be...
for every baby plus additional fortnightly payments, a free immunization scheme and recently proposed to pay all child care costs for women who want to work. Many European countries, including France
France
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
, Italy
Italy
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
, Germany
Elterngeld
Elterngeld , is a tax-financed payment for couples to encourage them to become parents, which pays an amount of money to support the costs of bringing up a child. Elterngeld schemes exists in Germany, France, and Scandinavia.It generally does not provide full support of the costs of bringing up a...
and Poland
Poland
Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north...
, have offered some combination of bonuses and monthly payments to families. Some Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
ese localities, facing significant population loss, are offering economic incentives. Yamatsuri, a town of 7,000 just north of Tokyo
Tokyo
, ; officially , is one of the 47 prefectures of Japan. Tokyo is the capital of Japan, the center of the Greater Tokyo Area, and the largest metropolitan area of Japan. It is the seat of the Japanese government and the Imperial Palace, and the home of the Japanese Imperial Family...
, offers parents $4,600 for the birth of a child and $460 a year for 10 years. The Republic of Singapore has a particularly lavish plan: $3,000 for the first child, $9,000 in cash and savings for the second; and up to $18,000 each for the third and fourth. The effectiveness of these policies is currently the subject of debate.
Paid maternity and paternity leave policies
Parental leave
Parental leave is an employee benefit that provides paid or unpaid time off work to care for a child or make arrangements for the child's welfare. Often, the term parental leave includes maternity, paternity, and adoption leave...
can also be used as an incentive. Sweden built up an extensive welfare state
Welfare state
A welfare state is a "concept of government in which the state plays a key role in the protection and promotion of the economic and social well-being of its citizens. It is based on the principles of equality of opportunity, equitable distribution of wealth, and public responsibility for those...
from the 1930s and onward, partly as a consequence of the debate following Crisis in the Population Question
Crisis in the Population Question
Crisis in the Population Question is a 1934 book by Alva and Gunnar Myrdal. It discussed the declining birthrate in Sweden and proposed possible solutions...
, published in 1934. Today, Sweden has generous parental leave where parents are entitled to share 16 months paid leave per child, the cost divided between both employer and State.
Alternative concept relative to skills
Sometimes the concept of population decline is applied where there has been considerable ex-migration of skilled professionals. In such a case, the government may have ceased to reward or value certain skills (e.g. science, medicine and engineering), and sectors of the economy such as health care and technology may go into decline. Such characterizations have been made of ItalyItaly
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
, Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a parliamentary democracy within a unitary constitutional republic in Southeast Europe. The country borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east...
and Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
in the period starting about 1990.
See also
- Societal collapseSocietal collapseSocietal collapse broadly includes both quite abrupt societal failures typified by collapses , as well as more extended gradual declines of superpowers...
- Negative Population GrowthNegative Population GrowthNegative Population Growth is a membership organization in the United States, founded in 1972.NPG works on overpopulation issues and advocates a gradual reduction in U.S. and world population. NPG believes the optimal population for the United States is 150 to 200 million and that the optimal...
- OverpopulationOverpopulationOverpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth...
- Population controlPopulation controlHuman population control is the practice of artificially altering the rate of growth of a human population.Historically, human population control has been implemented by limiting the population's birth rate, usually by government mandate, and has been undertaken as a response to factors including...
- Rural flightRural flightRural flight is a term used to describe the migratory patterns of peoples from rural areas into urban areas.In modern times, it often occurs in a region following the industrialization of agriculture when fewer people are needed to bring the same amount of agricultural output to market and related...
- Sub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertilitySub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate that leads to each new generation being less populous than the previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4...
- Zero population growthZero population growthZero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG , is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines, considered as a social aim....
- Church of EuthanasiaChurch of EuthanasiaThe Church of Euthanasia , is a political organization started by the Reverend Chris Korda in the Boston, Massachusetts area of the United States....
- Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared DiamondJared DiamondJared Mason Diamond is an American scientist and author whose work draws from a variety of fields. He is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA...
Case studies:
- Russian CrossRussian CrossRussian Cross ENG.jpgRussian Cross refers to a demographic trend in Russia. Since 1988 birth rates among native Russians have been declining, while since 1991 the death rates have been climbing...
- Aging of EuropeAging of EuropeThe Ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterized by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among Europeans.-Overall trends:...
- Aging of JapanAging of JapanThe ageing of Japan outweighs all other nations with the highest proportion of elderly citizens, 21% over the age of 65. In 1989, only 11.6% of the population was 65 years or older, but projections were that 25.6% would be in that age category by 2030...
- List of countries and territories by fertility rate