South Australian state election, 2014
Encyclopedia
The 2014 South Australian state election will elect members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia
on 15 March 2014. All seats in the House of Assembly
or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2010 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council
or upper house, last filled at the 2006 election, will become vacant. The 12-year incumbent Australian Labor Party
, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill
, will be challenged by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia
, currently led by Opposition Leader
Isobel Redmond
.
Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting
, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting
in the lower house and single transferable vote
group voting ticket
s in the proportionally represented
upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.
and half of the members in the Legislative Council
. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.
The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days. Between 7 and 10 days after the writs are issued, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of South Australia of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.
Labor Party
, led by Premier Jay Weatherill
, and the centre-right
Liberal Party
, led by Leader of the Opposition
Isobel Redmond
, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such
(Fisher
), Geoff Brock
(Frome
), and Don Pegler
(Mount Gambier
). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party
. In the upper house, the Labor Party holds eight seats, the Liberal Party holds seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies
all hold two seats each, and Dignity for Disabled
holds one seat.
A Port Adelaide by-election
and a Ramsay by-election
is expected to occur in early February 2012.
works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point
margin on a two candidate preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
To produce 'fair' boundaries, the Electoral Commission of South Australia since 1989 has been required to re-draw boundaries after each election with two-party electoral outcomes in mind. The coming redistribution will "effectively wipe out the Labor government's majority".
and published in The Australian
is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
usually consist of just over 1000 electors. The declared margin of error
at this sample size is ±3 percent. Two-party preferred figures are calculated based on preference flows at the previous state election.
Parliament of South Australia
The Parliament of South Australia is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of South Australia. It consists of the Legislative Council and the House of Assembly. It follows a Westminster system of parliamentary government....
on 15 March 2014. All seats in the House of Assembly
South Australian House of Assembly
The House of Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia. The other is the Legislative Council. It sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Adelaide.- Overview :...
or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2010 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council
South Australian Legislative Council
The Legislative Council, or upper house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia. Its central purpose is to act as a house of review for legislation passed through the lower house, the House of Assembly...
or upper house, last filled at the 2006 election, will become vacant. The 12-year incumbent Australian Labor Party
Australian Labor Party
The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia...
, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill
Jay Weatherill
Jay Wilson Weatherill is an Australian politician and current Premier of South Australia. He has represented the electoral district of Cheltenham in the South Australian House of Assembly as a member of the Australian Labor Party since the 2002 election.-Early life:Born in the western suburbs of...
, will be challenged by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia
Liberal Party of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office...
, currently led by Opposition Leader
Leader of the Opposition (South Australia)
The Leader of the Opposition in South Australia is the leader of the largest minority political party or coalition of parties, known as the Opposition, in the House of Assembly of the Parliament of South Australia. By convention, he or she is generally a member of the House of Assembly...
Isobel Redmond
Isobel Redmond
Isobel Mary Redmond is the current parliamentary leader of the South Australian division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament of South Australia since 2009. The Redmond Liberals won 18 of 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly at the 2010...
.
Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting
Compulsory voting
Compulsory voting is a system in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day. If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines, community service, or perhaps imprisonment if fines are unpaid...
, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting
Instant-runoff voting
Instant-runoff voting , also known as preferential voting, the alternative vote and ranked choice voting, is a voting system used to elect one winner. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, and their ballots are counted as one vote for their first choice candidate. If a candidate secures a...
in the lower house and single transferable vote
Single transferable vote
The single transferable vote is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through preferential voting. Under STV, an elector's vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate, and then, after candidates have been either elected or eliminated, any surplus or...
group voting ticket
Group voting ticket
Group voting tickets are a way to simplify preferential voting, usually in an election held under the single transferable vote or the alternative vote system....
s in the proportionally represented
Proportional representation
Proportional representation is a concept in voting systems used to elect an assembly or council. PR means that the number of seats won by a party or group of candidates is proportionate to the number of votes received. For example, under a PR voting system if 30% of voters support a particular...
upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Date
The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of AssemblySouth Australian House of Assembly
The House of Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia. The other is the Legislative Council. It sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Adelaide.- Overview :...
and half of the members in the Legislative Council
South Australian Legislative Council
The Legislative Council, or upper house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia. Its central purpose is to act as a house of review for legislation passed through the lower house, the House of Assembly...
. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.
The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days. Between 7 and 10 days after the writs are issued, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of South Australia of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.
Current parliament
The centre-leftCentre-left
Centre-left is a political term that describes individuals, political parties or organisations such as think tanks whose ideology lies between the centre and the left on the left-right spectrum...
Labor Party
Australian Labor Party
The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia...
, led by Premier Jay Weatherill
Jay Weatherill
Jay Wilson Weatherill is an Australian politician and current Premier of South Australia. He has represented the electoral district of Cheltenham in the South Australian House of Assembly as a member of the Australian Labor Party since the 2002 election.-Early life:Born in the western suburbs of...
, and the centre-right
Centre-right
The centre-right or center-right is a political term commonly used to describe or denote individuals, political parties, or organizations whose views stretch from the centre to the right on the left-right spectrum, excluding far right stances. Centre-right can also describe a coalition of centrist...
Liberal Party
Liberal Party of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office...
, led by Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Opposition (South Australia)
The Leader of the Opposition in South Australia is the leader of the largest minority political party or coalition of parties, known as the Opposition, in the House of Assembly of the Parliament of South Australia. By convention, he or she is generally a member of the House of Assembly...
Isobel Redmond
Isobel Redmond
Isobel Mary Redmond is the current parliamentary leader of the South Australian division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament of South Australia since 2009. The Redmond Liberals won 18 of 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly at the 2010...
, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such
Bob Such
Robert Bruce "Bob" Such , Australian politician, is the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly, as an independent since 2000, and as member of the Liberal Party member from the 1989 election to 2000....
(Fisher
Electoral district of Fisher
Fisher is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after James Fisher, a colonial politician and the first mayor of Adelaide...
), Geoff Brock
Geoff Brock
Geoffrey Graeme "Geoff" Brock is a South Australian politician, representing the seat of Frome in the South Australian House of Assembly as an Independent, after a shock win at the 2009 Frome state by-election, defeating the Liberal candidate Terry Boylan. He had a high local profile prior to the...
(Frome
Electoral district of Frome
Frome is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Edward Charles Frome, the third surveyor-general of South Australia. The electorate is based around the industrial city of Port Pirie and the agriculture areas of Clare and Gilbert...
), and Don Pegler
Don Pegler
Donald William "Don" Pegler is an Australian politician. He has been an independent member of the South Australian House of Assembly since the March 2010 election, representing the electorate of Mount Gambier....
(Mount Gambier
Electoral district of Mount Gambier
Mount Gambier is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers the southeast part of the state centered on the city and extinct volcano of Mount Gambier....
). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party
Family First Party
The Family First Party is a socially conservative minor political party in Australia. It has two members in the South Australian Legislative Council...
. In the upper house, the Labor Party holds eight seats, the Liberal Party holds seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies
No Pokies
No Pokies is an independent South Australian Legislative Council ticket that contested the 1997, 2002, and 2006 statewide legislative council elections...
all hold two seats each, and Dignity for Disabled
Dignity for Disabled
Dignity for Disability or Dignity 4 Disability is a minority political party in the Australian state of South Australia...
holds one seat.
A Port Adelaide by-election
Port Adelaide state by-election, 2012
A by-election will be held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Port Adelaide, likely to occur in early February 2012. This will be triggered by the resignation of former Deputy Premier, Treasurer and state Labor MHA Kevin Foley....
and a Ramsay by-election
Ramsay state by-election, 2012
A by-election will be held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Ramsay, likely to occur in early February 2012. This will be triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Labor MHA Mike Rann.-Background:...
is expected to occur in early February 2012.
Current pendulum
The following Mackerras PendulumMackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras Pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of...
works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point
Percentage point
Percentage points are the unit for the arithmetic difference of two percentages.Consider the following hypothetical example: in 1980, 40 percent of the population smoked, and in 1990 only 30 percent smoked...
margin on a two candidate preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
To produce 'fair' boundaries, the Electoral Commission of South Australia since 1989 has been required to re-draw boundaries after each election with two-party electoral outcomes in mind. The coming redistribution will "effectively wipe out the Labor government's majority".
| LABOR SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Bright Electoral district of Bright Bright is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers southern coastal suburbs of Adelaide including Hove, Brighton, Seacliff, Seacliff Park, Marino, Hallett Cove, Somerton Park, South Brighton, North Brighton and Kingston Park.... |
Chloe Fox Chloe Fox Chloë Catienne Fox is an Australian politician, and MP for the seat of Bright in the South Australian House of Assembly since the 2006 election, representing the Australian Labor Party... |
ALP | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Electoral district of Mitchell (South Australia) Mitchell is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the state of South Australia. It was first created in 1969 and is named after philosopher Sir William Mitchell... |
Alan Sibbons Alan Sibbons Alan John Sibbons is an Australian politician elected to the seat of Mitchell as the Labor Party candidate in the South Australian House of Assembly at the March 2010 election, defeating Independent incumbent Kris Hanna.... |
ALP | 2.1% |
| Newland Electoral district of Newland Newland is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after pioneer Simpson Newland, a prominent figure in nineteenth-century South Australia... |
Tom Kenyon Tom Kenyon Thomas Richard "Tom" Kenyon is an Australian politician. He is the Australian Labor Party member for the electoral district of Newland in the South Australian House of Assembly, having won the seat at the 2006 state election and returned at the 2010 state election.Kenyon was appointed as Minister... |
ALP | 2.2% |
| Hartley Electoral district of Hartley Hartley is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after John Hartley, a public servant responsible for creating much of South Australia's public education system... |
Grace Portolesi Grace Portolesi Grace Portolesi is a South Australian politician and Labor member for the electoral district of Hartley, having won the seat at the 2006 state election... |
ALP | 2.3% |
| Florey Electoral district of Florey Florey is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after scientist Howard Florey, who was responsible for the development of penicillin... |
Frances Bedford Frances Bedford Frances Ellen Bedford , Australian politician, is a member of the South Australian House of Assembly. She represents the electoral district of Florey and is a member of the Australian Labor Party.... |
ALP | 3.6% |
| Elder Electoral district of Elder Elder is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after nineteenth-century businessman and philanthropist Thomas Elder... |
Pat Conlon Patrick Conlon (politician) Patrick Frederick "Pat" Conlon is a South Australian politician. Since 1997 he has represented the Electoral district of Elder in the South Australian House of Assembly as a member of the Australian Labor Party. He is Minister for Transport, Minister for Infrastructure, and Minister for Energy,... |
ALP | 3.6% |
| Colton Electoral district of Colton Colton is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is a 14.2 km² urban electorate on Adelaide's western beaches, taking in the suburbs of Fulham, Fulham Gardens, Grange, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kidman Park as well as parts of... |
Paul Caica Paul Caica Paul Caica BA JP MP, , Australian politician, is a member of the South Australian House of Assembly. He represents the electoral district of Colton and is a member of the Australian Labor Party. A member of the Rann government cabinet since 2006, he is the current Minister for Environment and... |
ALP | 4.0% |
| Mawson Electoral district of Mawson The Electoral district of Mawson is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers the outer southern suburbs of Woodcroft, Hackham, Hackham West, Huntfield Heights and Noarlunga Downs, as well as the regional shopping centre at Noarlunga as well as the southern wine region... |
Leon Bignell Leon Bignell Leon William Kennedy Bignell , Australian politician, is the member for Mawson for the Australian Labor Party. He finished ahead of incumbent Liberal member Robert Brokenshire by 3.9% on first preference and 2.2% of two party preferred in the 2006 state election, delivering the seat to Labor for... |
ALP | 4.4% |
| Wright Electoral district of Wright Wright is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the 19th century South Australian architect Edmund Wright, it is a 21.2 km² urban electorate in Adelaide's outer north-eastern suburbs, taking in the suburb of Salisbury East and... |
Jennifer Rankine Jennifer Rankine Jennifer Mary Rankine is the sitting Labor member for the electoral district of Wright, first won in 1997. She is also the current Minister for Families and Communities, Minister for the Northern Suburbs, Minister for Housing, Minister for Ageing, and Minister for Disability.The 2006 election saw... |
ALP | 4.6% |
| Ashford Electoral district of Ashford Ashford is an electorate for the South Australian Legislative Assembly which includes many of Adelaide's inner south western suburbs. The district forms part of three federal electorates: the Division of Hindmarsh, the Division of Boothby, and the Division of Adelaide.The electorate's name dervives... |
Stephanie Key Stephanie Key Stephanie Wendy Key served as South Australia's Minister for Social Justice, Minister for Employment, Training & Further Education, Minister for Youth, and Minister for the Status of Women in the first Rann Labor government... |
ALP | 4.8% |
| Light Electoral district of Light Light is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Colonel William Light who was the first Surveyor-General of South Australia. The electorate was created in 1857, abolished in 1902 and reinstated in 1936... |
Tony Piccolo Tony Piccolo Tony Piccolo is an Australian politician, currently the Labor member for the electoral district of Light. He managed to win this seat in the 2006 state election with 52.1% on two party preference, a swing of 4.9% against the incumbent Liberal member, Malcolm Buckby... |
ALP | 5.3% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Little Para Electoral district of Little Para Little Para is an electorate for the South Australian Legislative Assembly in the northern suburbs of the Adelaide metropolitan area in South Australia.... |
Lee Odenwalder Lee Odenwalder Lee Kenny Odenwalder is an Australian politician elected to the seat of Little Para as the Labor Party candidate in the South Australian House of Assembly at the March 2010 election, after the resignation of the previous Labor Party incumbent Lea Stevens.... |
ALP | 6.7% |
| West Torrens Electoral district of West Torrens West Torrens is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the City of West Torrens because of its location on the River Torrens, it is a 26.7 km² urban electorate on Adelaide's western suburbs... |
Tom Koutsantonis Tom Koutsantonis Anastasios "Tom" Koutsantonis is a South Australian politician and a member of the Australian Labor Party, representing the seat of West Torrens in the South Australian House of Assembly... |
ALP | 6.7% |
| Lee Electoral district of Lee Lee is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the women's suffrage campaigner Mary Lee, it is a 17.6 km² urban electorate on Adelaide's north-western beaches, taking in the suburbs of Birkenhead, Ethelton, Exeter, Glanville,... |
Michael Wright Michael Wright (Australian politician) Michael John Wright is an Australian politician. He has been an Australian Labor Party member of the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Lee since 1997.... |
ALP | 7.1% |
| Torrens Electoral district of Torrens Torrens is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Located along the River Torrens, and named after Robert Richard Torrens, a 19th century Premier of South Australia, and also the founder of the "Torrens title" land registration system. Torrens is... |
Robyn Geraghty Robyn Geraghty Robyn Kathryn Geraghty has been the sitting Labor member for the electoral district of Torrens in South Australia since 1994.Geraghty has been heavily involved in community issues, as well as introducing various acts in to parliament... |
ALP | 7.7% |
| Kaurna Electoral district of Kaurna Kaurna is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the Kaurna aboriginal tribe which originally inhabited the Adelaide plains, it is a 67.2 km² semi-urban electorate on Adelaide's far-southern beaches, taking in the suburbs of... |
John Hill John Hill (Australian politician) John David Hill , Australian politician, is the current South Australian Minister for Health, Minister for the Southern Suburbs, Minister Assisting the Premier in the Arts in the Rann Government... |
ALP | 8.6% |
| Safe | |||
| Reynell Electoral district of Reynell Reynell is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after John Reynell, a leading force in the founding of the Agricultural and Horticultural Society of South Australia and noted 19th century grape farmer and vineyard owner in the area... |
Gay Thompson Gay Thompson Mary Gabrielle Thompson has been the Labor member for the South Australian House of Assembly electoral district of Reynell since 1997.... |
ALP | 10.4% |
| Enfield Electoral district of Enfield Enfield is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the suburb of the same name, it is a 20 km² urban electorate in Adelaide's inner northern suburbs, taking in the suburbs of Angle Park, Broadview, Clearview, Enfield, Ferryden... |
John Rau John Rau John Robert Rau , Australian politician, is the current South Australian Deputy Premier and Attorney-General. He has been an Australian Labor Party member of the House of Assembly seat of Enfield since 2002.-Legal career:... |
ALP | 10.5% |
| Taylor Electoral district of Taylor Taylor is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. This district is named after Doris Irene Taylor MBE, a leading force in the founding of Meals on Wheels, and Australian Labor Party activist. Taylor is a 549.8 km² semi-urban electorate in... |
Leesa Vlahos Leesa Vlahos Leesa Anne Vlahos is an Australian politician elected to the seat of Taylor as the Labor Party candidate in the South Australian House of Assembly at the March 2010 election, after the resignation of the previous Labor Party incumbent Trish White.-References:... |
ALP | 11.1% |
| Giles Electoral district of Giles Giles is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. The electorate, named after explorer Ernest Giles, is the largest in South Australia, covering a 500,738.0km² swathe of outback South Australia... |
Lyn Breuer Lyn Breuer Lynette Ruth "Lyn" Breuer , Australian politician, represents the electoral district of Giles in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Australian Labor Party... |
ALP | 11.9% |
| Port Adelaide Electoral district of Port Adelaide Port Adelaide is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after Port Adelaide because of its geographical location, it is a 113.4 km² urban electorate on Adelaide's Lefevre Peninsula and stretches east to cove some of Adelaide's northern... |
Kevin Foley Kevin Foley Kevin Owen Foley , Australian politician, is the current Minister for Industry and Trade and Minister for Federal/State Relations in the Rann Labor government. He previously served as Treasurer of South Australia and Deputy Premier of South Australia from 2002 until his resignation in 2011... |
ALP | 12.8% |
| Croydon | Michael Atkinson Michael Atkinson Michael John Atkinson , an Australian politician, was the South Australian Attorney-General, Minister for Justice, Minister for Veterans' Affairs, and Minister for Multicultural Affairs in the Rann Labor Government. A day after the 2010 election, he stepped down as Attorney-General and resigned... |
ALP | 14.1% |
| Napier Electoral district of Napier Napier is an electorate created in 1976 for the South Australian Legislative Assembly in the northern suburbs of the Adelaide metropolitan area of South Australia.... |
Michael O'Brien Michael O'Brien (Australian politician) Michael O'Brien is the Labor member for Napier in the South Australian House of Assembly. He was first elected in 2002, replacing Annette Hurley... |
ALP | 15.8% |
| Cheltenham Electoral district of Cheltenham Cheltenham is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the suburb of the same name, it is a 17.3km² urban rectangular-shaped electorate in Adelaide's north-west, taking in the suburbs of Alberton, Albert Park, Athol Park, Cheltenham,... |
Jay Weatherill Jay Weatherill Jay Wilson Weatherill is an Australian politician and current Premier of South Australia. He has represented the electoral district of Cheltenham in the South Australian House of Assembly as a member of the Australian Labor Party since the 2002 election.-Early life:Born in the western suburbs of... |
ALP | 16.1% |
| Playford Electoral district of Playford Playford is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the long serving South Australian premier Tom Playford, it is a 21.4 km² urban electorate in Adelaide's northern suburbs, taking in the suburb of Ingle Farm, Para Hills West,... |
Jack Snelling Jack Snelling John James "Jack" Snelling is an Australian politician who has been the sitting Labor member for the electoral district of Playford in the South Australian House of Assembly since the 1997 election.... |
ALP | 16.2% |
| Ramsay Electoral district of Ramsay Ramsay is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Alexander Ramsay , who was General Manager of the South Australian Housing Trust for 25 years and devoted to the improvement of South Australian life... |
Mike Rann Mike Rann Michael David Rann MHA, CNZM , Australian politician, served as the 44th Premier of South Australia. He led the South Australian branch of the Australian Labor Party to minority government at the 2002 election, before attaining a landslide win at the 2006 election... |
ALP | 18.0% |
| Very safe | |||
| LIBERAL SEATS | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Chaffey Electoral district of Chaffey Chaffey, created in 1936, is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers the Riverland region of South Australia and is named after brothers George and William Chaffey who established the irrigation area along the Murray River from 1886... |
Tim Whetstone Tim Whetstone Timothy John "Tim" Whetstone is an Australian politician representing the seat of Chaffey in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party since the 2010 election.... |
LIB | 3.8% v NAT |
| Morialta Electoral district of Morialta Morialta is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Morialta is derived from a Kaurna Aboriginal word "mariyatala", with "mari" meaning east and "yertala" meaning water... |
John Gardner John Gardner (Australian politician) John Anthony William Gardner is an Australian politician representing the seat of Morialta in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party since the 2010 election.... |
LIB | 4.1% |
| Adelaide Electoral district of Adelaide Adelaide is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly which includes Adelaide's central business district and suburbs in the inner north and inner north east... |
Rachel Sanderson Rachel Sanderson Rachel Sanderson is an Australian politician representing the seat of Adelaide in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party since the 2010 election.-Early life:... |
LIB | 4.2% |
| Norwood Electoral district of Norwood Norwood is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after its surrounding geographical area, Norwood, South Australia. Norwood is a 14.2 km² urban electorate in Adelaide's inner eastern suburbs... |
Steven Marshall Steven Marshall Steven Spence Marshall is an Australian politician representing the seat of Norwood in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party since the 2010 election.... |
LIB | 4.9% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Stuart Electoral district of Stuart Stuart is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers the northeast part of the state extending from just north of the Barossa Valley all the way to the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales borders, and extending west to include Port Augusta... |
Dan van Holst Pellekaan Dan van Holst Pellekaan Daniel Cornelis "Dan" van Holst Pellekaan is an Australian politician elected to the seat of Stuart as the Liberal Party candidate in the South Australian House of Assembly at the March 2010 election, after the resignation of the previous Liberal Party incumbent Graham Gunn.-References:... |
LIB | 7.6% |
| Safe | |||
| Morphett Electoral district of Morphett Morphett is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the state of South Australia.Created in 1976 following an electoral redistribution, the seat of Morphett was named after Sir John Morphett who lived in the Morphettville area and was speaker of the enlarged Legislative Council in 1851... |
Duncan McFetridge Duncan McFetridge Duncan McFetridge is an Australian politician representing the seat of Morphett in the South Australian House of Assembly for the Liberal Party since the 2002 election. He was re-elected at the 2006 and 2010 elections.... |
LIB | 11.1% |
| Finniss Electoral district of Finniss Finniss is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Boyle Finniss, the first Premier of South Australia... |
Michael Pengilly Michael Pengilly Michael Redding Pengilly is an Australian politician who took over from retiring sitting member and former Premier Dean Brown for the safe Liberal seat of Finniss at the 2006 election.... |
LIB | 11.2% |
| Davenport Electoral district of Davenport Davenport is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after nineteenth-century pioneer and politician Sir Samuel Davenport. Davenport is a 37.4 km² electorate covering part of outer suburban Adelaide and the southern foothills of... |
Iain Evans Iain Evans Iain Frederick Evans is a South Australian Liberal Party politician. He studied at Heathfield High School and gained a Bachelor Degree for Building Technology from the SA Institute of Technology . Prior to entering politics he managed a family-owned building and retailing business... |
LIB | 11.8% |
| Unley Electoral district of Unley Unley is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after the suburb of the same name, it is a 12.2 km² urban electorate in Adelaide's inner southern suburbs, taking in the suburbs of Eastwood, Frewville, Fullarton, Glenunga, Highgate, Hyde... |
David Pisoni David Pisoni David Gregory Pisoni is a South Australian politician. He has been a Liberal Party of Australia member of the South Australian House of Assembly since 2006, representing the electorate of Unley.... |
LIB | 12.2% |
| Waite Electoral district of Waite Waite is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named after Peter Waite, a 19th entrepreneur and philanthropist in the current area of the electorate, it is a 30.6km² urban electorate in Adelaide's inner south-eastern suburbs, taking in the... |
Martin Hamilton-Smith Martin Hamilton-Smith Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith is the member for the electoral district of Waite in the South Australian House of Assembly since 1997... |
LIB | 12.9% |
| Kavel Electoral district of Kavel Kavel, created in 1969, is an electorate for the South Australian Legislative Assembly in the Adelaide Hills region of South Australia.Kavel is named after Lutheran pastor August Kavel who migrated to South Australia from Germany in 1838 with approximately 250 people seeking freedom from religious... |
Mark Goldsworthy Mark Goldsworthy Roger Mark Goldsworthy is an Australian politician who has been the sitting Liberal member for the electoral district of Kavel since 2002.... |
LIB | 15.8% |
| Heysen Electoral district of Heysen Heysen is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Sir Hans Heysen, a prominent South Australian landscape artist. It is a 616 km² electoral district stretching from residential suburbs in the east and southeast of Adelaide... |
Isobel Redmond Isobel Redmond Isobel Mary Redmond is the current parliamentary leader of the South Australian division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament of South Australia since 2009. The Redmond Liberals won 18 of 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly at the 2010... |
LIB | 16.5% |
| Schubert Electoral district of Schubert Schubert is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Max Schubert, the winemaker of Grange Hermitage... |
Ivan Venning Ivan Venning Ivan Howard Venning is an Australian politician and Liberal Party member of the South Australian House of Assembly since 1990.... |
LIB | 17.8% |
| Goyder Electoral district of Goyder Goyder is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is a 10,406.4 km² rural electorate based around the Yorke Peninsula and taking in the towns of Ardrossan, Bute, Corny Point, Edithburgh, Maitland, Minlaton, Moonta, Owen, Port Wakefield,... |
Steven Griffiths Steven Griffiths Steven Paul Griffiths is a former parliamentary deputy leader of the South Australian division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the deputy Leader of the Opposition in South Australia since 2009, and member for the electoral district of Goyder in the House of Assembly since 2006.Griffiths was... |
LIB | 18.3% |
| Hammond Electoral district of Hammond Hammond is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Ruby Hammond, the first indigenous woman to stand for the South Australian parliament... |
Adrian Pederick Adrian Pederick Adrian Stephen Pederick is an Australian politician who won the safe Liberal seat of Hammond for the Liberal party, re-claiming it back from Liberal-turned-independent Peter Lewis who left to contest a seat in the Upper House.... |
LIB | 19.0% |
| Very safe | |||
| MacKillop Electoral district of MacKillop MacKillop is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. Named in 1991 after Mary MacKillop , who served the local area, it is a 24,358.3 km² rural electorate in the south-east of the state, stretching from the mouth of the Murray River... |
Mitch Williams Mitch Williams (Australian politician) Michael Richard "Mitch" Williams is a South Australian Liberal politician and farmer. He is currently the deputy opposition leader in the South Australian parliament. He resigned from the Liberal Party and was elected to the safe Liberal seat of MacKillop in the state's south east at the 1997... |
LIB | 20.1% v IND |
| Bragg Electoral district of Bragg Bragg is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. The seat of Bragg is named after the eminent physicists Bragg – William Henry and his son, William Lawrence. The electorate is largely urban and encompasses a significant portion of the City of... |
Vickie Chapman Vickie Chapman Vickie Ann Chapman is an Australian politician, representing the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Bragg for the Liberal Party since 2002. She was Deputy Leader of the South Australian Opposition from 30 March 2006 until 4 July 2009.-Early life:Chapman was born in Kangaroo Island... |
LIB | 21.1% |
| Flinders Electoral district of Flinders Flinders is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after explorer Matthew Flinders, who was responsible for charting most of the state's coastline. It is a 55,260.6 km² coastal rural electorate encompassing the Eyre Peninsula and... |
Peter Treloar Peter Treloar Peter Andrew Treloar is an Australian politician elected to the seat of Flinders as the Liberal Party candidate in the South Australian House of Assembly at the March 2010 election, after the resignation of the previous Liberal Party incumbent Liz Penfold.... |
LIB | 26.2% |
| INDEPENDENT SEATS | |||
| Mt Gambier Electoral district of Mount Gambier Mount Gambier is an electorate for the South Australian House of Assembly. It covers the southeast part of the state centered on the city and extinct volcano of Mount Gambier.... |
Don Pegler Don Pegler Donald William "Don" Pegler is an Australian politician. He has been an independent member of the South Australian House of Assembly since the March 2010 election, representing the electorate of Mount Gambier.... |
IND | 0.4% v LIB |
| Frome Electoral district of Frome Frome is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after Edward Charles Frome, the third surveyor-general of South Australia. The electorate is based around the industrial city of Port Pirie and the agriculture areas of Clare and Gilbert... |
Geoff Brock Geoff Brock Geoffrey Graeme "Geoff" Brock is a South Australian politician, representing the seat of Frome in the South Australian House of Assembly as an Independent, after a shock win at the 2009 Frome state by-election, defeating the Liberal candidate Terry Boylan. He had a high local profile prior to the... |
IND | 7.5% v LIB |
| Fisher Electoral district of Fisher Fisher is an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It is named after James Fisher, a colonial politician and the first mayor of Adelaide... |
Bob Such Bob Such Robert Bruce "Bob" Such , Australian politician, is the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly, as an independent since 2000, and as member of the Liberal Party member from the 1989 election to 2000.... |
IND | 16.6% v LIB |
Polling
Polling conducted by NewspollNewspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....
and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
Sample size
Sample size determination is the act of choosing the number of observations to include in a statistical sample. The sample size is an important feature of any empirical study in which the goal is to make inferences about a population from a sample...
usually consist of just over 1000 electors. The declared margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
at this sample size is ±3 percent. Two-party preferred figures are calculated based on preference flows at the previous state election.
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib | ||||
| Apr–Jun 2011 | 30% | 40% | 1% | 14% | 15% | 46% | 54% | |||
| 25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 29% | 42% | 1% | 14% | 14% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Mar 2010 election | 37.5% | 41.7% | 1.0% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 48.4% | 51.6% | |||
| 14–18 Mar 2010 | 35.3% | 42.5% | < .5% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 48% | 52% | |||
| Jan–Mar 2010 | 36% | 39% | 1% | 10% | 14% | 50% | 50% | |||
| Oct–Dec 2009 | 37% | 35% | 1% | 12% | 15% | 53% | 47% | |||
| Jul–Aug 2009 | 41% | 33% | 1% | 11% | 14% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . |
||||||||||
| Rann | Redmond | |
|---|---|---|
| Apr–Jun 2011 | 34% | 45% |
| 25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 32% | 50% |
| Mar 2010 election | – | – |
| 14–18 Mar 2010 | 43% | 45% |
| Jan–Mar 2010 | 44% | 41% |
| Oct–Dec 2009 | 48% | 31% |
| Jul–Aug 2009 | 46% | 27% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
||
| Rann | Redmond | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |
| Apr–Jun 2011 | 31% | 59% | 51% | 29% |
| 25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 30% | 59% | 52% | 25% |
| Mar 2010 election | – | – | – | – |
| 14–18 Mar 2010 | 43% | 48% | 59% | 23% |
| Jan–Mar 2010 | 45% | 48% | 58% | 20% |
| Oct–Dec 2009 | 50% | 38% | 51% | 18% |
| Jul–Aug 2009 | 51% | 40% | 43% | 10% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
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