Victorian state election, 2010
Encyclopedia
The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November. The incumbent centre-left
Australian Labor Party
government, led by John Brumby
, was defeated by the centre-right
Liberal
/National
Coalition
opposition, led by Ted Baillieu
.
Victoria has compulsory voting
and uses preferential ballot
in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly
, and single transferable vote
in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented
Legislative Council
. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission
(VEC).
The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010. Daniel Andrews
replaced Brumby as Labor leader on 3 December.
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority with 21 seats, 16 seats to Labor and 3 to the Greens.
¶ In 2006
, the final Gippsland East
2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals
, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East
, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition
. They had not done so since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000. The Liberal Party departed from tradition and preferenced the Greens last instead of above Labor. Without Liberal preferences, the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor were decreased.
came to power as a minority government
at the 1999 election, defeating the incumbent Jeff Kennett
Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government
after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election
with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats up for election, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-election
s were held; in Bracks' seat of Williamstown and former Deputy Premier
John Thwaites
' seat of Albert Park
in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer
's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky
's seat of Altona
in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon
resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe
in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.
Key dates for the election were:
and published in The Australian
is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error
at ±3 percent.
Sky News
exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.
Centre-left
Centre-left is a political term that describes individuals, political parties or organisations such as think tanks whose ideology lies between the centre and the left on the left-right spectrum...
Australian Labor Party
Australian Labor Party
The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia...
government, led by John Brumby
John Brumby
John Mansfield Brumby , is an Australian Labor Party politician who was Premier of Victoria from 2007 to 2010. He became Premier after the resignation of Steve Bracks. He also served as the Minister for Veterans' Affairs and the Minister for Multicultural Affairs. He contested his first election...
, was defeated by the centre-right
Centre-right
The centre-right or center-right is a political term commonly used to describe or denote individuals, political parties, or organizations whose views stretch from the centre to the right on the left-right spectrum, excluding far right stances. Centre-right can also describe a coalition of centrist...
Liberal
Liberal Party of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office...
/National
National Party of Australia
The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Traditionally representing graziers, farmers and rural voters generally, it began as the The Country Party, but adopted the name The National Country Party in 1975, changed to The National Party of Australia in 1982. The party is...
Coalition
Coalition (Australia)
The Coalition in Australian politics refers to a group of centre-right parties that has existed in the form of a coalition agreement since 1922...
opposition, led by Ted Baillieu
Ted Baillieu
Edward Norman "Ted" Baillieu MLA is an Australian politician. He is currently the Premier of Victoria and the member for the Legislative Assembly seat of Hawthorn...
.
Victoria has compulsory voting
Compulsory voting
Compulsory voting is a system in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day. If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines, community service, or perhaps imprisonment if fines are unpaid...
and uses preferential ballot
Instant-runoff voting
Instant-runoff voting , also known as preferential voting, the alternative vote and ranked choice voting, is a voting system used to elect one winner. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, and their ballots are counted as one vote for their first choice candidate. If a candidate secures a...
in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly
Victorian Legislative Assembly
The Victorian Legislative Assembly is the lower house of the Parliament of Victoria in Australia. Together with the Victorian Legislative Council, the upper house, it sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Melbourne.-History:...
, and single transferable vote
Single transferable vote
The single transferable vote is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through preferential voting. Under STV, an elector's vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate, and then, after candidates have been either elected or eliminated, any surplus or...
in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented
Proportional representation
Proportional representation is a concept in voting systems used to elect an assembly or council. PR means that the number of seats won by a party or group of candidates is proportionate to the number of votes received. For example, under a PR voting system if 30% of voters support a particular...
Legislative Council
Victorian Legislative Council
The Victorian Legislative Council, is the upper of the two houses of the Parliament of Victoria, Australia; the lower house being the Legislative Assembly. Both houses sit in Parliament House in Spring Street, Melbourne. The Legislative Council serves as a house of review, in a similar fashion to...
. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission
Victorian Electoral Commission
The Victorian Electoral Commission , or VEC, is the government agency responsible for the running of state, municipal and various non-government elections in Victoria.-An Independent Agency:...
(VEC).
Legislative Assembly
|}The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010. Daniel Andrews
Daniel Andrews
Daniel Michael Andrews is an Australian politician. He is the current state Australian Labor Party leader and Leader of the Opposition in Victoria...
replaced Brumby as Labor leader on 3 December.
Legislative Council
| Votes Cast | 3,328,866 | Turnout | 92.93 | |
| Informal Votes | 112,052 | Informal | 3.37 | |
| Party | Primary Votes | % | Seats | |
| Liberal/National Coalition Coalition (Australia) The Coalition in Australian politics refers to a group of centre-right parties that has existed in the form of a coalition agreement since 1922... |
1,388,083 | 43.15 | 21 | |
| Australian Labor Party Australian Labor Party The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia... |
1,137,629 | 35.37 | 16 | |
| Australian Greens Australian Greens The Australian Greens, commonly known as The Greens, is an Australian green political party.The party was formed in 1992; however, its origins can be traced to the early environmental movement in Australia and the formation of the United Tasmania Group , the first Green party in the world, which... |
386,241 | 12.01 | 3 | |
| Other | 304,861 | 9.47 | 0 | |
| Total | 3,216,814 | 40 | ||
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority with 21 seats, 16 seats to Labor and 3 to the Greens.
Seats changing hands
| Seat | Pre-2010 | Swing | Post-2010 | ||||||
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bentleigh Electoral district of Bentleigh The Electoral district of Bentleigh is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is an inner-suburban seat based around the suburbs of Bentleigh, McKinnon and most of Moorabbin south east of Melbourne.... |
Labor | Rob Hudson Rob Hudson Rob Hudson is a former Australian politician, and was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Australian Labor Party. He holds honours degrees in Social Work and Law. Hudson is a supporter of the Hawthorn Hawks football club.Hudson was elected to the Bentleigh electorate in the 2002... |
6.3 | -7.1 | 0.8 | Elizabeth Miller Elizabeth Miller (politician) Elizabeth Miller is an Australian state politician who was elected in the Victorian state election, 2010 for the Electoral district of Bentleigh, defeating the Labor MP Rob Hudson. She is a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.... |
Liberal | ||
| Burwood Electoral district of Burwood The electoral district of Burwood is an electorate for the Victorian Legislative Assembly in Australia. It is located approximately 13 kilometres east of Melbourne, and covers an area of 24 km². It includes the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood, Box Hill South, and parts of Burwood, Camberwell,... |
Labor | Bob Stensholt Bob Stensholt Robert Einar "Bob" Stensholt was an Australian politician in the Victorian Parliament.He was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2010, representing the electorate of Burwood. From 2007 he was the Chair, Public Accounts and Estimates Committee... |
3.7 | -9.6 | 5.9 | Graham Watt Graham Watt Graham Travis Watt is an Australian politician, he is currently the member for the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Electoral district of Burwood... |
Liberal | ||
| Carrum Electoral district of Carrum The Electoral district of Carrum is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It lies in the south eastern suburbs of Melbourne, covering Aspendale, Carrum, Chelsea, Edithvale and Patterson Lakes.... |
Labor | Jenny Lindell Jenny Lindell Jennifer Margaret "Jenny" Lindell is an Australian politician and former Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.... |
6.7 | -8.7 | 2.0 | Donna Bauer Donna Bauer Donna Jane Bauer is an Australian politician, and has been the member for Carrum in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010... |
Liberal | ||
| Forest Hill Electoral district of Forest Hill Forest Hill is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 22km² electorate located in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of Blackburn South, Burwood East and Vermont South and parts of Forest Hill and Vermont... |
Labor | Kirstie Marshall Kirstie Marshall Kirstie Marshall is a notable Australian aerial skier and Victorian state politician.Marshall was an ex-gymnast who became an aerial skier at Mount Buller, Victoria. During her skiing career Marshall won over 40 World Cup medals, including 17 World Cup gold medals... |
0.8 | -3.9 | 3.2 | Neil Angus Neil Angus Neil Andrew Warwick Angus is an Victorian state politician. Angus was elected as a Member of Parliament in the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Forest Hill... |
Liberal | ||
| Frankston Electoral district of Frankston The Electoral district of Frankston is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is currently based around the suburbs of Frankston and Frankston South south east of Melbourne.... |
Labor | Alistair Harkness Alistair Harkness Dr Alistair Harkness is an Australian politician, and was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Australian Labor Party.- Early life :... |
3.2 | -5.3 | 2.1 | Geoff Shaw | Liberal | ||
| Gembrook Electoral district of Gembrook The Electoral district of Gembrook is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is situated just outside metropolitan Melbourne... |
Labor | Tammy Lobato Tammy Lobato Tamara "Tammy" Lobato is an Australian politician for the Labor Party in the state of Victoria. She was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, representing the electoral district of Gembrook.... |
0.7 | -7.5 | 6.8 | Brad Battin Brad Battin Bradley William Battin is an Australian politician, and has been the member for Gembrook in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010. He was formerly a police officer.-References:... |
Liberal | ||
| Gippsland East Electoral district of Gippsland East The Electoral district of Gippsland East is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers most of eastern Victoria and includes the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield.... ¶ |
Independent | Craig Ingram Craig Ingram Craig Ingram is a former Australian politician, and was the Independent Member of Parliament for Gippsland East in the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2010.-Personal life:... |
9.1 | -21.1 | 12.0 | Tim Bull Tim Bull Tim Bull is an Australian politician. He has been a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly representing the electorate of Gippsland East for the National Party of Australia since the 2010 Victorian election.-Biography:... |
National | ||
| Mitcham Electoral district of Mitcham The Electoral district of Mitcham is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is centered around Mitcham and Blackburn in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne.... |
Labor | Tony Robinson Tony Robinson (politician) Anthony Gerard Peter Robinson is a former Australian politician who served as the member for Mitcham in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. He represented the Australian Labor Party.Robinson was first elected at the 1997 Mitcham by-election... |
2.0 | -4.7 | 2.8 | Dee Ryall Dee Ryall Deanne Sharon "Dee" Ryall is an Australian politician and current member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly representing the electorate of Mitcham for the Liberal Party of Australia since the 2010 Victorian election.-Personal life:... |
Liberal | ||
| Mordialloc Electoral district of Mordialloc The Electoral district of Mordialloc is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly including the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Mordialloc and Parkdale; and parts of Cheltenham, Heatherton, Highett, Mentone and Springvale South... |
Labor | Janice Munt Janice Munt Janice Munt is an Australian politician. A member of the Australian Labor Party, she represented the Electoral district of Mordialloc in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. She was elected in 2002 and held the seat until her defeat in 2010... |
3.5 | -5.6 | 2.1 | Lorraine Wreford Lorraine Wreford Lorraine Joan Wreford is an Australian politician, and has been the member of Mordialloc in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010... |
Liberal | ||
| Mount Waverley Electoral district of Mount Waverley The Electoral District of Mount Waverley is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is located in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne and contains the suburbs of Glen Waverley, Mount Waverley and Syndal.... |
Labor | Maxine Morand Maxine Morand Maxine Morand is an Australian politician. She was Minister for Children and Early Childhood Development and Minister for Women's Affairs in the Brumby Ministry, and held the electoral seat of Mount Waverley.... |
0.3 | -7.8 | 7.4 | Michael Gidley Michael Gidley Michael Xavier Charles Gidley is an Australian politician, and has been the member for Mount Waverley in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010.... |
Liberal | ||
| Prahran Electoral district of Prahran Prahran is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 12km² electorate in the inner south-east of Melbourne, taking in the suburbs of South Yarra, Prahran and Windsor, as well as parts of Balaclava, St Kilda, St Kilda East and Toorak... |
Labor | Tony Lupton Tony Lupton Anthony Gerard "Tony" Lupton , Australian politician, was the Australian Labor Party member for Prahran in the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2002 to 2010.-Early life:... |
3.6 | -7.8 | 4.3 | Clem Newton-Brown Clem Newton-Brown Clement Arundel "Clem" Newton-Brown , Australian politician, is the member for Prahran in the Victorian Legislative Assembly.... |
Liberal | ||
| Seymour Electoral district of Seymour The Electoral district of Seymour is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers rural territory just north of Melbourne, including the towns of Alexandra, Healesville, Kinglake, Marysville, Seymour and Yea.... |
Labor | Ben Hardman Ben Hardman Benedict Paul Hardman is an Australian politician. He was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2010, representing the electorate of Seymour.... |
6.7 | -7.9 | 1.2 | Cindy McLeish Cindy McLeish Cindy McLeish is an Australian politician, and has been the member for Seymour in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010.McLeish was born and raised in Yea, in the north of the electorate, growing up on the family farm... |
Liberal | ||
| South Barwon Electoral district of South Barwon South Barwon is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. Located in a mixed urban and rural area south of the Barwon River, it covers an area of 621km², including the Geelong suburbs of Belmont and Grovedale, Waurn Ponds and part of Highton, the coastal... |
Labor | Michael Crutchfield Michael Crutchfield Michael Crutchfield is an Australian politician. He was formerly the member for South Barwon in the Victorian Legislative Assembly.-Early life:... |
4.1 | -6.2 | 3.9 | Andrew Katos Andrew Katos Andrew Katos is an Australian politician, and has been the member for South Barwon in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2010.-References:... |
Liberal | ||
¶ In 2006
Victorian state election, 2006
An election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system...
, the final Gippsland East
Electoral district of Gippsland East
The Electoral district of Gippsland East is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers most of eastern Victoria and includes the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield....
2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals
Campaign
The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of MelbourneElectoral district of Melbourne
The Electoral district of Melbourne is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is currently based around the localities of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne...
, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East
Electoral district of Bendigo East
Bendigo East is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 2,086 km² electorate based around the city of Bendigo, encompassing the localities of Axedale, Bendigo, Bendigo East, Bridgewater, Epsom, Flora Hill, Goornong, Huntly, Kennington,...
, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition
Coalition (Australia)
The Coalition in Australian politics refers to a group of centre-right parties that has existed in the form of a coalition agreement since 1922...
. They had not done so since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000. The Liberal Party departed from tradition and preferenced the Greens last instead of above Labor. Without Liberal preferences, the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor were decreased.
Background
Labor led by Steve BracksSteve Bracks
Stephen Philip Bracks AC is a former Australian politician and the 44th Premier of Victoria. He first won the electoral district of Williamstown in 1994 for the Australian Labor Party, and was party leader and Premier from 1999 to 2007....
came to power as a minority government
Minority government
A minority government or a minority cabinet is a cabinet of a parliamentary system formed when a political party or coalition of parties does not have a majority of overall seats in the parliament but is sworn into government to break a Hung Parliament election result. It is also known as a...
at the 1999 election, defeating the incumbent Jeff Kennett
Jeff Kennett
Jeffrey Gibb Kennett AC , a former Australian politician, was the Premier of Victoria between 1992 and 1999. He is currently the President of Hawthorn Football Club. He is the founding Chairman of beyondblue, a national depression initiative.- Early life :Kennett was born in Melbourne on 2 March...
Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government
Majority government
A majority government is when the governing party has an absolute majority of seats in the legislature or parliament in a parliamentary system. This is as opposed to a minority government, where even the largest party wins only a plurality of seats and thus must constantly bargain for support from...
after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election
Victorian state election, 2006
An election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system...
with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats up for election, a decrease of 7, and 54.4 percent of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4 percent. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-election
By-election
A by-election is an election held to fill a political office that has become vacant between regularly scheduled elections....
s were held; in Bracks' seat of Williamstown and former Deputy Premier
Deputy Premier of Victoria
The Deputy Premier of Victoria is the second-most senior officer in the Government of Victoria. The Deputy Premiership has been a ministerial portfolio since , and the Deputy Premier is appointed by the Governor on the advice of the Premier....
John Thwaites
John Thwaites (Australian politician)
Johnstone William "John" Thwaites , Australian politician, was Deputy Premier of the state of Victoria from 1999 to 2007.-Early life :...
' seat of Albert Park
Albert Park state by-election, 2007
The Albert Park state by-election, 2007 was a by-election held on 15 September 2007 for the Victorian Legislative Assembly seat of Albert Park, immediately to the south of Melbourne's central business district....
in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer
Andre Haermeyer
Andre Haermeyer is an Australian politician. He was the Australian Labor Party member for Kororoit in the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2002, prior to that representing the Yan Yean electorate in Melbourne's north from 1992.Before being elected to Parliament, Haermeyer worked for the...
's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky
Lynne Kosky
Lynne Janice Kosky is a former Australian politician and senior minister in the Parliament of Victoria. She represented the electoral district of Altona in the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the Australian Labor Party from 1996 to 2010...
's seat of Altona
Altona state by-election, 2010
A by-election was held for the Victorian Legislative Assembly seat of Altona on 13 February 2010, following the sudden resignation of state Transport Minister Lynne Kosky on 18 January, who cited a family member's health as the reason for her decision to leave politics...
in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon
Craig Langdon
Craig Anthony Cuffe Langdon was an Australian politician. He was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1996 until 2010...
resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe
Electoral district of Ivanhoe (Victoria)
The Electoral district of Ivanhoe is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is located in the north-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and is based around the suburbs of Heidelberg, Ivanhoe and Rosanna....
in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.
Key dates
Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.Key dates for the election were:
- 2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and lodgement of election writs
- 9 November: Close of rolls
- 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
- 12 November: Close of nominations for independents
- 15 November: Early voting commences
- 25 November: Close of postal voting
- 26 November: Early voting closes
- 27 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
Labor
- Peter BatchelorPeter BatchelorPeter Batchelor was an Australian politician before retiring at the Victorian State Election on 27 November 2010. He was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1990, representing the electorate of Thomastown. He served most recently as Minister for Energy and...
MLA (ThomastownElectoral district of ThomastownThe Electoral district of Thomastown is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is currently based around the suburbs of Fawkner and Reservoir and has been in existence since 1985.The seat is extremely safe for the Australian Labor Party...
) - Bob Cameron MLA (Bendigo WestElectoral district of Bendigo WestBendigo West is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 2,633 km² electorate based around the city of Bendigo and surrounding rural towns. It encompasses the localities of Bendigo City, California Gully, Castlemaine, Harcourt, Long Gully,...
) - Carlo CarliCarlo CarliCarlo Carli is an Australian politician. He was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1994 to 2010, representing the electorate of Brunswick. He is chair of the Scrutiny of Acts and Regulations Committee of the Victorian Parliament.-Early life:Carlo was born...
MLA (BrunswickElectoral district of BrunswickThe Electoral district of Brunswick is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is located in the northern suburbs of Melbourne and is based around the suburb of Brunswick....
) - Judy MaddiganJudy MaddiganJudith Marilyn Maddigan , Australian politician, was Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2003-2005. She was the member for the seat of Essendon from 1996 to 2010, representing the Australian Labor Party....
MLA (EssendonElectoral district of EssendonThe Electoral district of Essendon is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It lies just north of Melbourne and covers the suburbs of Essendon, Moonee Ponds and Ascot Vale...
) - Karen OveringtonKaren OveringtonKaren Marie Overington was an Australian politician. She was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2010, representing the electorate of Ballarat West....
MLA (Ballarat WestElectoral district of Ballarat West-See also:*Parliaments of the Australian states and territories*List of members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly-External links:*...
) - George SeitzGeorge SeitzGeorge Seitz is a Labor Member of the Legislative Assembly in Victoria, Australia....
MLA (KeilorElectoral district of KeilorThe Electoral district of Keilor is a metropolitan electorate approximately 15 kilometres north-west of Melbourne, Australia in Victoria's Legislative Assembly....
)
Liberal
- Helen ShardeyHelen ShardeyHelen Jean Shardey is a state politician for the Liberal Party of Australia who held the seat of Caulfield from 1996 to 2010...
MLA (CaulfieldElectoral district of Caulfield-See also:* Parliaments of the Australian states and territories* List of members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly-External links:*...
) - John VogelsJohn VogelsJohn Adrian Vogels is an Australian politician. He was a Liberal member of the Victorian Parliament from 1999 to 2010, serving in both the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council....
MLC (Western Victoria Region)
Polling
Polling conducted by NewspollNewspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....
and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
Sample size
Sample size determination is the act of choosing the number of observations to include in a statistical sample. The sample size is an important feature of any empirical study in which the goal is to make inferences about a population from a sample...
usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
at ±3 percent.
| Labor Brumby |
Liberal Baillieu |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2010 election Victorian state election, 2010 The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu.... |
– | – |
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 48% | 38% |
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 50% | 36% |
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 49% | 31% |
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2010 | 47% | 31% |
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 49% | 29% |
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 51% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 54% | 26% |
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 54% | 21% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 54% | 22% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 49% | 27% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 45% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 48% | 26% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 51% | 28% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 49% | 23% |
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 48% | 25% |
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 22% |
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 51% | 25% |
| 2006 election Victorian state election, 2006 An election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system... |
– | – |
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 53%1 | 30% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . 1 Steve Bracks Steve Bracks Stephen Philip Bracks AC is a former Australian politician and the 44th Premier of Victoria. He first won the electoral district of Williamstown in 1994 for the Australian Labor Party, and was party leader and Premier from 1999 to 2007.... . ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
||
| Primary vote | 2PP vote Two-party-preferred vote In politics, the two-party-preferred vote , or two-candidate-preferred vote , in an election or opinion poll uses preferential voting to express the electoral result after the distribution of preferences... |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||||
| 2010 election Victorian state election, 2010 The 2010 Victorian state election was held on 27 November. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu.... |
36.3% | 38.1% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 48.4% | 51.6% | |||
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 48.9% | 51.1% | |||
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 37% | 39% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 38% | 32% | 4% | 17% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| May – Jun 2010 | 34% | 36% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 37% | 38% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 41% | 32% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 43% | 32% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 43% | 35% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 42% | 34% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 46% | 31% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 45% | 34% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 37% | 37% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 41% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 44% | 33% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 43% | 34% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 31% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 49% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 2006 election Victorian state election, 2006 An election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system... |
43.1% | 34.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 54.4% | 45.6% | |||
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . |
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Sky News
Sky News
Sky News is a 24-hour British and international satellite television news broadcaster with an emphasis on UK and international news stories.The service places emphasis on rolling news, including the latest breaking news. Sky News also hosts localised versions of the channel in Australia and in New...
exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.
Newspaper endorsements
| Dailies | Sundays | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Newspaper | Endorsement | |||
| The Age The Age The Age is a daily broadsheet newspaper, which has been published in Melbourne, Australia since 1854. Owned and published by Fairfax Media, The Age primarily serves Victoria, but is also available for purchase in Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and border regions of South Australia and... |
The Sunday Age The Age The Age is a daily broadsheet newspaper, which has been published in Melbourne, Australia since 1854. Owned and published by Fairfax Media, The Age primarily serves Victoria, but is also available for purchase in Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and border regions of South Australia and... |
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| The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... |
The Weekend Australian | |||||
| The Australian Financial Review The Australian Financial Review The Australian Financial Review is a leading business and finance newspaper in Australia.Fairfax Media publishes it in a compact format six days a week, Monday to Saturday.... |
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| The Herald Sun |
Sunday Herald Sun |
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