Current sea level rise
Encyclopedia
Effects of global warming
This article is about the effects of global warming and climate change. The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the...
human populations (e.g., those living in coastal regions and on islands) and the wider natural environment (e.g., marine ecosystem
Marine ecosystem
Marine ecosystems are among the largest of Earth's aquatic ecosystems. They include oceans, salt marsh and intertidal ecology, estuaries and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs, the deep sea and the sea floor. They can be contrasted with freshwater ecosystems, which have a lower salt content. Marine...
s). Global average sea level rose at an average rate of around 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003. It is unclear whether or not the increased rate observed between 1993 and 2003 reflects an increase in the underlying long-term trend.
There are two main factors that have contributed to observed sea level rise. The first is thermal expansion
Thermal expansion
Thermal expansion is the tendency of matter to change in volume in response to a change in temperature.When a substance is heated, its particles begin moving more and thus usually maintain a greater average separation. Materials which contract with increasing temperature are rare; this effect is...
: as ocean water warms, it expands. The second is from the contribution of land-based ice due to increased melting. The major store of water on land is found in glaciers and ice sheets.
Sea level rise is one of several lines of evidence that strongly support the view that the climate has recently warmed. It is very likely that human-induced (anthropogenic)
Attribution of recent climate change
Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate...
warming contributed to the sea level rise observed in the latter half of the 20th century.
There is a widespread consensus that substantial long-term sea level rise will continue for centuries to come. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body which provides comprehensive assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change caused by human activity, its potential environmental and...
projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century relative to global average sea level at the end of the 20th century. Their projection for this time period is for an increase in sea level of between 18 and 59 cm (7.1 and 23.2 in), but IPCC explicitly refrained from assessing the likelihood of this much rise, providing an upper limit, or projecting whether ice sheet flow from Antarctica and Greenland might change. For this century, one meter of sea level rise is well within the range of more recent projections.
On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheet
Ice sheet
An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km² , thus also known as continental glacier...
s could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet
Greenland ice sheet
The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering , roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its...
, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains which lies in the Western Hemisphere. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well...
, could contribute 4–6 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise.
Local and eustatic sea level
Ocean surface wave
In fluid dynamics, wind waves or, more precisely, wind-generated waves are surface waves that occur on the free surface of oceans, seas, lakes, rivers, and canals or even on small puddles and ponds. They usually result from the wind blowing over a vast enough stretch of fluid surface. Waves in the...
and tide
Tide
Tides are the rise and fall of sea levels caused by the combined effects of the gravitational forces exerted by the moon and the sun and the rotation of the Earth....
s are smoothed out. One must adjust perceived changes in LMSL to account for vertical movements of the land, which can be of the same order (mm/yr) as sea level changes. Some land movements occur because of isostatic
Isostasy
Isostasy is a term used in geology to refer to the state of gravitational equilibrium between the earth's lithosphere and asthenosphere such that the tectonic plates "float" at an elevation which depends on their thickness and density. This concept is invoked to explain how different topographic...
adjustment of the mantle
Mantle (geology)
The mantle is a part of a terrestrial planet or other rocky body large enough to have differentiation by density. The interior of the Earth, similar to the other terrestrial planets, is chemically divided into layers. The mantle is a highly viscous layer between the crust and the outer core....
to the melting of ice sheet
Ice sheet
An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km² , thus also known as continental glacier...
s at the end of the last ice age
Ice age
An ice age or, more precisely, glacial age, is a generic geological period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers...
. The weight of the ice sheet depresses the underlying land, and when the ice melts away the land slowly rebounds
Post-glacial rebound
Post-glacial rebound is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostasy...
. Atmospheric pressure
Atmospheric pressure
Atmospheric pressure is the force per unit area exerted into a surface by the weight of air above that surface in the atmosphere of Earth . In most circumstances atmospheric pressure is closely approximated by the hydrostatic pressure caused by the weight of air above the measurement point...
, ocean current
Ocean current
An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of ocean water generated by the forces acting upon this mean flow, such as breaking waves, wind, Coriolis effect, cabbeling, temperature and salinity differences and tides caused by the gravitational pull of the Moon and the Sun...
s and local ocean temperature
Temperature
Temperature is a physical property of matter that quantitatively expresses the common notions of hot and cold. Objects of low temperature are cold, while various degrees of higher temperatures are referred to as warm or hot...
changes also can affect LMSL.
“Eustatic” change (as opposed to local change) results in an alteration to the global sea levels, such as changes in the volume of water in the world oceans or changes in the volume of an ocean basin.
Short term and periodic changes
There are many factors which can produce short-term (a few minutes to 18.6 years) changes in sea level.| Short-term (periodic) causes | Time scale (P = period) |
Vertical effect |
|---|---|---|
| Periodic sea level changes | ||
| Diurnal and semidiurnal astronomical tides Earth tide Earth tide is the sub-meter motion of the Earth of about 12 hours or longer caused by Moon and Sun gravitation, also called body tide which is the largest contribution globally. The largest body tide contribution is from the semidiurnal constituents, but there are also significant diurnal... |
12–24 h P | 0.2–10+ m |
| Long-period tides | ||
| Rotational variations (Chandler wobble Chandler wobble The Chandler wobble is a small motion in the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the Earth's surface, which was discovered by American astronomer Seth Carlo Chandler in 1891. It amounts to on the Earth's surface and has a period of 433 days... ) |
14 month P | |
| Lunar Node astronomical tides Earth tide Earth tide is the sub-meter motion of the Earth of about 12 hours or longer caused by Moon and Sun gravitation, also called body tide which is the largest contribution globally. The largest body tide contribution is from the semidiurnal constituents, but there are also significant diurnal... |
18.613 year | |
| Meteorological and oceanographic fluctuations | ||
| Atmospheric pressure | Hours to months | −0.7 to 1.3 m |
| Winds (storm surge Storm surge A storm surge is an offshore rise of water associated with a low pressure weather system, typically tropical cyclones and strong extratropical cyclones. Storm surges are caused primarily by high winds pushing on the ocean's surface. The wind causes the water to pile up higher than the ordinary sea... s) |
1–5 days | Up to 5 m |
| Evaporation Evaporation Evaporation is a type of vaporization of a liquid that occurs only on the surface of a liquid. The other type of vaporization is boiling, which, instead, occurs on the entire mass of the liquid.... and precipitation Precipitation (meteorology) In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation In meteorology, precipitation (also known as one of the classes of hydrometeors, which are atmospheric water phenomena is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravity. The main forms of precipitation... (may also follow long-term pattern) |
Days to weeks | |
| Ocean surface topography Topography Topography is the study of Earth's surface shape and features or those ofplanets, moons, and asteroids... (changes in water density Density The mass density or density of a material is defined as its mass per unit volume. The symbol most often used for density is ρ . In some cases , density is also defined as its weight per unit volume; although, this quantity is more properly called specific weight... and currents) |
Days to weeks | Up to 1 m |
| El Niño/southern oscillation | 6 mo every 5–10 yr | Up to 0.6 m |
| Seasonal variations | ||
| Season Season A season is a division of the year, marked by changes in weather, ecology, and hours of daylight.Seasons result from the yearly revolution of the Earth around the Sun and the tilt of the Earth's axis relative to the plane of revolution... al water balance among oceans (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian) |
||
| Seasonal variations in slope of water surface | ||
| River River A river is a natural watercourse, usually freshwater, flowing towards an ocean, a lake, a sea, or another river. In a few cases, a river simply flows into the ground or dries up completely before reaching another body of water. Small rivers may also be called by several other names, including... runoff/flood Flood A flood is an overflow of an expanse of water that submerges land. The EU Floods directive defines a flood as a temporary covering by water of land not normally covered by water... s |
2 months | 1 m |
| Seasonal water density changes (temperature and salinity Salinity Salinity is the saltiness or dissolved salt content of a body of water. It is a general term used to describe the levels of different salts such as sodium chloride, magnesium and calcium sulfates, and bicarbonates... ) |
6 months | 0.2 m |
| Seiches | ||
| Seiche Seiche A seiche is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water. Seiches and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, swimming pools, bays, harbors and seas... s (standing waves) |
Minutes to hours | Up to 2 m |
| Earthquake Earthquake An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. The seismicity, seismism or seismic activity of an area refers to the frequency, type and size of earthquakes experienced over a period of time... s |
||
| Tsunami Tsunami A tsunami is a series of water waves caused by the displacement of a large volume of a body of water, typically an ocean or a large lake... s (generate catastrophic long-period waves) |
Hours | Up to 10 m |
| Abrupt change in land level | Minutes | Up to 10 m |
Longer term changes
Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, leading to long-term changes in eustatic sea level. The two primary influences are temperature (because the density of waterWater
Water is a chemical substance with the chemical formula H2O. A water molecule contains one oxygen and two hydrogen atoms connected by covalent bonds. Water is a liquid at ambient conditions, but it often co-exists on Earth with its solid state, ice, and gaseous state . Water also exists in a...
depends on temperature), and the mass
Mass
Mass can be defined as a quantitive measure of the resistance an object has to change in its velocity.In physics, mass commonly refers to any of the following three properties of matter, which have been shown experimentally to be equivalent:...
of water locked up on land and sea as fresh water
Fresh Water
Fresh Water is the debut album by Australian rock and blues singer Alison McCallum, released in 1972. Rare for an Australian artist at the time, it came in a gatefold sleeve...
in rivers, lake
Lake
A lake is a body of relatively still fresh or salt water of considerable size, localized in a basin, that is surrounded by land. Lakes are inland and not part of the ocean and therefore are distinct from lagoons, and are larger and deeper than ponds. Lakes can be contrasted with rivers or streams,...
s, glaciers, polar ice cap
Polar ice cap
A polar ice cap is a high latitude region of a planet or natural satellite that is covered in ice. There are no requirements with respect to size or composition for a body of ice to be termed a polar ice cap, nor any geological requirement for it to be over land; only that it must be a body of...
s, and sea ice
Sea ice
Sea ice is largely formed from seawater that freezes. Because the oceans consist of saltwater, this occurs below the freezing point of pure water, at about -1.8 °C ....
. Over much longer geological timescales, changes in the shape of the oceanic basins and in land/sea distribution will affect sea level.
Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps
Retreat of glaciers since 1850
The retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects the availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use, mountain recreation, animals and plants that depend on glacier-melt, and in the longer term, the level of the oceans...
indicate a contribution to sea-level rise of 0.2 to 0.4 mm/yr averaged over the 20th century.
Glaciers and ice caps
Each year about 8 mm (0.3 inch) of water from the entire surface of the oceans falls into the Antarctica and GreenlandGeography of Greenland
Greenland is located between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean, northeast of Canada and northwest of Iceland. Greenland has no land boundaries and 44,087 km of coastline. A sparse population is confined to small settlements along the coast. Greenland possesses the world's second...
ice sheets as snowfall. If no ice returned to the oceans, sea level would drop 8 mm every year. To a first approximation, the same amount of water appeared to return to the ocean in iceberg
Iceberg
An iceberg is a large piece of ice from freshwater that has broken off from a snow-formed glacier or ice shelf and is floating in open water. It may subsequently become frozen into pack ice...
s and from ice melting at the edges. Scientists previously had estimated which is greater, ice going in or coming out, called the mass balance
Glacier mass balance
Crucial to the survival of a glacier is its mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation . Climate change may cause variations in both temperature and snowfall, causing changes in mass balance. Changes in mass balance control a glacier's long term behavior and is the most...
, important because it causes changes in global sea level. High-precision gravimetry
Gravimetry
Gravimetry is the measurement of the strength of a gravitational field. Gravimetry may be used when either the magnitude of gravitational field or the properties of matter responsible for its creation are of interest...
from satellites
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment , a joint mission of NASA and the German Space Agency, has been making detailed measurements of Earth's gravity field since its launch in March 2002....
in low-noise flight has since determined Greenland is losing more than 200 billion tons of ice per year, in accordance with loss estimates from ground measurement. The rate of ice loss is accelerating, having grown from 137 gigatons in 2002–2003.
Ice shelves
Ice shelf
An ice shelf is a thick, floating platform of ice that forms where a glacier or ice sheet flows down to a coastline and onto the ocean surface. Ice shelves are only found in Antarctica, Greenland and Canada. The boundary between the floating ice shelf and the grounded ice that feeds it is called...
float on the surface of the sea and, if they melt, to first order they do not change sea level. Likewise, the melting of the northern polar
North Pole
The North Pole, also known as the Geographic North Pole or Terrestrial North Pole, is, subject to the caveats explained below, defined as the point in the northern hemisphere where the Earth's axis of rotation meets its surface...
ice cap
Ice cap
An ice cap is an ice mass that covers less than 50 000 km² of land area . Masses of ice covering more than 50 000 km² are termed an ice sheet....
which is composed of floating pack ice would not significantly contribute to rising sea levels. Because they are fresh, however, their melting would cause a very small increase in sea levels, so small that it is generally neglected. It can however be argued that if ice shelves melt it is a precursor to the melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.
- If small glacierGlacierA glacier is a large persistent body of ice that forms where the accumulation of snow exceeds its ablation over many years, often centuries. At least 0.1 km² in area and 50 m thick, but often much larger, a glacier slowly deforms and flows due to stresses induced by its weight...
s and polarPolar regionEarth's polar regions are the areas of the globe surrounding the poles also known as frigid zones. The North Pole and South Pole being the centers, these regions are dominated by the polar ice caps, resting respectively on the Arctic Ocean and the continent of Antarctica...
ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic PeninsulaAntarctic PeninsulaThe Antarctic Peninsula is the northernmost part of the mainland of Antarctica. It extends from a line between Cape Adams and a point on the mainland south of Eklund Islands....
melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheetGreenland ice sheetThe Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering , roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its...
would produce 7.2 m of sea-level rise, and melting of the Antarctic ice sheetAntarctic ice sheetThe Antarctic ice sheet is one of the two polar ice caps of the Earth. It covers about 98% of the Antarctic continent and is the largest single mass of ice on Earth. It covers an area of almost 14 million square km and contains 30 million cubic km of ice...
would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise. The collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice SheetWest Antarctic Ice SheetThe West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains which lies in the Western Hemisphere. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well...
would raise sea level by 5–6 m. - The interior of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has been (as of 2009) sufficiently high (and therefore cold) enough that direct melt there cannot cause them to melt in a time-frame less than several millennia; therefore it is likely that they will not, through melting of the interior, contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century. They can, however, do so through acceleration in flow and enhanced iceberg calvingIce calvingIce calving, also known as glacier calving or iceberg calving, is a form of ice ablation or ice disruption. It is the sudden release and breaking away of a mass of ice from a glacier, iceberg, ice front, ice shelf, or crevasse...
. Also, melt of the fringes of the ice caps could be significant, as could be sub-ice-shelf melting in Antarctica. - Climate changeClimate changeClimate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
s during the 20th century are estimated from modelling studies to have led to contributions of between −0.2 and 0.0 mm/yr from Antarctica (the results of increasing precipitation) and 0.0 to 0.1 mm/yr from Greenland (from changes in both precipitation and runoffSurface runoffSurface runoff is the water flow that occurs when soil is infiltrated to full capacity and excess water from rain, meltwater, or other sources flows over the land. This is a major component of the water cycle. Runoff that occurs on surfaces before reaching a channel is also called a nonpoint source...
). - Estimates suggest that Greenland and Antarctica have contributed 0.0 to 0.5 mm/yr over the 20th century as a result of long-term adjustment to the end of the last ice age.
The current rise in sea level observed from tide gauges, of about 1.8 mm/yr, is within the estimate range from the combination of factors above but active research continues in this field. The terrestrial storage term, thought to be highly uncertain, is no longer positive, and shown to be quite large.
Since 1992, a number of satellites have been recording the change in sea level; they display an acceleration in the rate of sea level change, but they have not been operating for long enough to work out whether this is a real signal, or just an artefact of short-term variation.
Short term variability and long-term trends
On the timescale of several years and decades, sea level records contain a considerable amount of variability. For example, approximately a 10 mm rise and fall of global mean sea level accompanied the 1997–1998 El Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation
El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years...
(ENSO) event. Interannual or longer variability is a major reason why no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th century data alone. However, a range of evidence clearly shows that the rate of sea level rise increased between the mid-19th and mid-20th centuries. Evidence for this includes geological observations, the longest instrumental records, and the observed rate of sea level rise for the 20th century. For example, geological observations indicate that during the last 2,000 years, sea level change was small, with an average rate of only 0.0 to 0.2 mm per year. This compares to an average rate of 1.7 mm per year for the 20th century, with a range of plus or minus 0.5 mm per year.
Past changes in sea level
The sedimentary record
For generations, geologists have been trying to explain the obvious cyclicity of sedimentSediment
Sediment is naturally occurring material that is broken down by processes of weathering and erosion, and is subsequently transported by the action of fluids such as wind, water, or ice, and/or by the force of gravity acting on the particle itself....
ary deposits observed everywhere we look. The prevailing theories hold that this cyclicity primarily represents the response of depositional processes to the rise and fall of sea level. In the rock record, geologists see times when sea level was much lower than today alternating with times when sea level was much higher than today, and these anomalies often appear worldwide. For instance, during the depths of the last ice age
Ice age
An ice age or, more precisely, glacial age, is a generic geological period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers...
18,000 years ago when hundreds of thousands of cubic miles of ice were stacked up on the continents as glaciers, sea level was 120 m (390 ft) lower, locations that today support coral reefs were left high and dry, and coast
Coast
A coastline or seashore is the area where land meets the sea or ocean. A precise line that can be called a coastline cannot be determined due to the dynamic nature of tides. The term "coastal zone" can be used instead, which is a spatial zone where interaction of the sea and land processes occurs...
lines were miles farther basinward from the present-day coastline. It was during this time of very low sea level that there was a dry land connection between Asia and Alaska over which humans are believed to have migrated to North America (see Bering Land Bridge
Bering land bridge
The Bering land bridge was a land bridge roughly 1,000 miles wide at its greatest extent, which joined present-day Alaska and eastern Siberia at various times during the Pleistocene ice ages. Like most of Siberia and all of Manchuria, Beringia was not glaciated because snowfall was extremely light...
).
However, for the past 6,000 years (many centuries before the first known written records
History of writing
The history of writing records the development of expressing language by letters or other marks. In the history of how systems of representation of language through graphic means have evolved in different human civilizations, more complete writing systems were preceded by proto-writing, systems of...
), the world's sea level has been gradually approaching the level we see today. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6 m higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reef
Coral reef
Coral reefs are underwater structures made from calcium carbonate secreted by corals. Coral reefs are colonies of tiny living animals found in marine waters that contain few nutrients. Most coral reefs are built from stony corals, which in turn consist of polyps that cluster in groups. The polyps...
s left stranded about 3 metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s above today's sea level along the southwestern coastline of West Caicos
West Caicos
West Caicos is an island in the Turks and Caicos Islands. West Caicos has an area of , and has been uninhabited for over a century. The island is home to the 500 acre Lake Catherine, a protected wildlife reserve, filled with pink roseate flamingoes, manta rays, sea turtles and other indigenous...
Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby paleo-beach deposits are silent testimony that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow the reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world.
Estimates of past changes
See figure 11.4 in the Third Assessment ReportIPCC Third Assessment Report
The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by the IPCC. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the UN's World Meteorological Organization ".....
for a graph of sea level changes
Sea-level curve
The sea-level curve is the representation of the changes of the sea level throughout the geological history.The first such curve is the Vail curve or Exxon curve. The names of the curve refer to the fact that in 1977 a team of Exxon geologists from Esso Production Research headed by Peter Vail...
over the past 140,000 years.
- Sea level rise estimates from satellite altimetry since 1993 are in the range of 2.9–3.4 mm/yr.
- Church and White (2006) report an acceleration of SLR since 1870. This is a revision since 2001, when the TAR stated that measurements have detected no significant acceleration in the recent rate of sea level rise.
- Based on tide gaugeTide gaugeA tide gauge is a device for measuring sea level and detecting tsunamis.Sensors continuously record the height of the water level with respect to a height reference surface close to the geoid...
data, the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century lies in the range 0.8 to 3.3 mm/yr, with an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr. - Recent studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of Roman piscinaPiscinaA piscina is a shallow basin placed near the altar of a church, used for washing the communion vessels. The sacrarium is the drain itself. Anglicans usually refer to the basin, calling it a piscina. Roman Catholics usually refer to the drain, and by extension, the basin, as the sacrarium...
e in Italy indicate that sea level stayed fairly constant from a few hundred years AD to a few hundred years ago. - Based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of about 0.5 mm/yr over the last 6,000 years and at an average rate of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years.
- Since the Last Glacial MaximumLast Glacial MaximumThe Last Glacial Maximum refers to a period in the Earth's climate history when ice sheets were at their maximum extension, between 26,500 and 19,000–20,000 years ago, marking the peak of the last glacial period. During this time, vast ice sheets covered much of North America, northern Europe and...
about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120 m (averaging 6 mm/yr) as a result of melting of major ice sheets. A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP (excluding the rapid rise from 15–6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr. - A significant event was Meltwater pulse 1AMeltwater pulse 1AMeltwater pulse 1A was an instance in the sea level rise of about 20 m in less than 500 years, perhaps just 200 years. The meltwater event occurred in a period of rapid climate change when the Holocene glacial retreat was going on during the end of the last ice age...
(mwp-1A), when sea level rose approximately 20 m over a 500 year period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Recent studies suggest the primary source was meltwater from the AntarcticAntarcticThe Antarctic is the region around the Earth's South Pole, opposite the Arctic region around the North Pole. The Antarctic comprises the continent of Antarctica and the ice shelves, waters and island territories in the Southern Ocean situated south of the Antarctic Convergence...
, perhaps causing the south-to-north cold pulse marked by the Southern HemisphereSouthern HemisphereThe Southern Hemisphere is the part of Earth that lies south of the equator. The word hemisphere literally means 'half ball' or "half sphere"...
Huelmo/Mascardi Cold ReversalHuelmo/Mascardi Cold ReversalThe Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal is the name given to a cooling event in South America between 11,400 and 10,200 14C years BP. This cooling began about 550 years before the Younger Dryas cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, and both periods ended at about the same time.The event was given its...
, which preceded the Northern HemisphereNorthern HemisphereThe Northern Hemisphere is the half of a planet that is north of its equator—the word hemisphere literally means “half sphere”. It is also that half of the celestial sphere north of the celestial equator...
Younger DryasYounger DryasThe Younger Dryas stadial, also referred to as the Big Freeze, was a geologically brief period of cold climatic conditions and drought between approximately 12.8 and 11.5 ka BP, or 12,800 and 11,500 years before present... - Relative sea level rise at specific locations is often 1–2 mm/yr greater or less than the global average. Along the US mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, for example, sea level is rising approximately 3 mm/yr
U. S. Tide Gauge Measurements
Post-glacial rebound
Post-glacial rebound is the rise of land masses that were depressed by the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period, through a process known as isostasy...
). The rate of sea level rise increased during the 1993–2003 period compared with the longer-term average (1961–2003), although it is unclear whether the faster rate reflects a short-term variation or an increase in the long-term trend.
One study shows there has been no acceleration in sea level rise in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. However, another study shows that the rate of rise for the US Atlantic coast during the 20th Century was far higher than during the past two thousand years.
Amsterdam Sea Level Measurements
The longest running sea-level measurements are recorded at AmsterdamAmsterdam
Amsterdam is the largest city and the capital of the Netherlands. The current position of Amsterdam as capital city of the Kingdom of the Netherlands is governed by the constitution of August 24, 1815 and its successors. Amsterdam has a population of 783,364 within city limits, an urban population...
, in the Netherlands—part of which (about 25%) lies beneath sea level. Records from 1700 onwards can be found at http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/longrecords/longrecords.html. Since 1850, a rise of approx 1.5 mm/year is shown here.
Australian Sea Level Change
A 2003 study published in the International Hydrological Review used 160 year-old records in the archives of the Royal Society, London, to establish a rate of sea level rise of about 1mm a year. The study compared records taken by an amateur meteorologist at the Port Arthur convict settlement 160 years ago with data recorded by modern tide gauges.The National Tidal Centre of the Bureau of Meteorology manages 32 tide gauges, some with records since 1880, for the entire coastline.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is the national government body for scientific research in Australia, their data shows the current sea level trend to be 3.2 mm/yr and the historical increase since 1870 to have been an average of 1.7mm/year
21st century
In their Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for...
, published in 2007, the IPCC projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the "SRES" greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios was prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2000, based on data developed at the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The emissions scenarios described in the Report have been used to make projections of possible future climate...
. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) gives emissions scenarios used to project climate change impacts.
The projections based on these scenarios are not predictions, but reflect different plausible estimates of future social
Social change
Social change refers to an alteration in the social order of a society. It may refer to the notion of social progress or sociocultural evolution, the philosophical idea that society moves forward by dialectical or evolutionary means. It may refer to a paradigmatic change in the socio-economic...
and economic development
Economic development
Economic development generally refers to the sustained, concerted actions of policymakers and communities that promote the standard of living and economic health of a specific area...
(e.g., economic growth
Economic growth
In economics, economic growth is defined as the increasing capacity of the economy to satisfy the wants of goods and services of the members of society. Economic growth is enabled by increases in productivity, which lowers the inputs for a given amount of output. Lowered costs increase demand...
, population level
Population projection
Population projection, in the field of demography, is an estimate of a future population. In contrast with intercensal estimates and censuses, which usually involve some sort of field data gathering, projections usually involve mathematical models based only on pre-existing data. A projection may...
).
Across the six SRES "marker" scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm
Centimetre
A centimetre is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one hundredth of a metre, which is the SI base unit of length. Centi is the SI prefix for a factor of . Hence a centimetre can be written as or — meaning or respectively...
(7.1 to 23.2 in
Inch
An inch is the name of a unit of length in a number of different systems, including Imperial units, and United States customary units. There are 36 inches in a yard and 12 inches in a foot...
).
This projection is for the time period 2090–99, with the increase in level relative to average sea level over the 1980–99 period. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets.
More recent research from 2008 observed rapid declines in ice mass balance from both Greenland and Antarctica, and concluded that sea-level rise by 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of about two meters.
A literature assessment published in 2010 by the US National Research Council described the above IPCC projections as "conservative," and summarized the results of more recent studies.
Cited studies suggested a great deal of uncertainty in projections. A range of projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st century of between 0.56 and 2 m. These projections are based on the same measurement range as that used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, with the increase in sea level by 2090–99 measured against average global sea level over the 1980–99 time period.
In 2011, Rignot and others projected that sea level rise would reach 32 centimeters (12.6 inches) by 2050 alone. Their projection includes increased contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Use of two completely different approaches lends strength to the Rignot projection.
After 2100
There is a widespread consensus that substantial long-term sea level rise will continue for centuries to come. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that at least a partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheetGreenland ice sheet
The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering , roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its...
, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains which lies in the Western Hemisphere. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well...
, would occur for a global average temperature increase of 1–4 °C (relative to temperatures over the years 1990–2000). Based on expert judgement, this estimate was thought to have about a 50% chance of being correct. The estimated timescale for partial deglaciation was centuries to millennia, and would contribute 4 to 6 metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise over this period.
Abrupt changes in sea level
There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea level.Predictions of such a change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientific understanding. Modeling of the processes associated with a rapid ice sheet and glacier change could potentially increase future projections of sea level rise.
Projected impacts
Future sea level rise could lead to potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based communities in the next centuries: for example, many major cities such as London and New Orleans already need storm-surge defenses, and would need more if sea level rose, though they also face issues such as sinking land. Sea level rise could also displace many shore-based populations: for example it is estimated that a sea level rise of just 200 mm could create 740,000 homeless people in Nigeria. MaldivesMaldives
The Maldives , , officially Republic of Maldives , also referred to as the Maldive Islands, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean formed by a double chain of twenty-six atolls oriented north-south off India's Lakshadweep islands, between Minicoy Island and...
, Tuvalu
Tuvalu
Tuvalu , formerly known as the Ellice Islands, is a Polynesian island nation located in the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and Australia. Its nearest neighbours are Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa and Fiji. It comprises four reef islands and five true atolls...
, and other low-lying countries are among the areas that are at the highest level of risk. The UN's environmental panel has warned that, at current rates, sea level would be high enough to make the Maldives uninhabitable by 2100.
Future sea level rise, like the recent rise, is not expected to be globally uniform (details below). Some regions show a sea-level rise substantially more than the global average (in many cases of more than twice the average), and others a sea level fall. However, models disagree as to the likely pattern of sea level change.
In September 2008, the Delta Commission (Deltacommissie (2007)) presided by Dutch politician Cees Veerman
Cees Veerman
Cornelis Pieter Veerman is a Dutch politician of the Christian Democratic Appeal. He served as Minister of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality from July 22, 2002 until February 22, 2007.-Early life:...
advised in a report that The Netherlands would need a massive new building program to strengthen the country's water defenses against the anticipated effects of global warming
Effects of global warming
This article is about the effects of global warming and climate change. The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the...
for the next 190 years. This commission was created in September 2007, after the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was a powerful Atlantic hurricane. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall...
prompted reflection and preparations. Those included drawing up worst-case plans for evacuations. The plan included more than €100 billion, or $144 billion, in new spending through the year 2100 to take measures, such as broadening coastal dunes and strengthening sea and river dikes.
The commission said the country must plan for a rise in the North Sea up to 4.25 feet (1.3 meters) by 2100, rather than the previously projected 30 inches (0.80 meters), and plan for a 6.5–13 foot rise by 2200.
IPCC Third Assessment
The results from the IPCC Third Assessment ReportIPCC Third Assessment Report
The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by the IPCC. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the UN's World Meteorological Organization ".....
(TAR) sea level chapter are given below.
| IPCC change factors 1990–2100 | IS92a prediction Prediction A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge... |
SRES projection/ |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal expansion | 110 to 430 mm | |
| Glaciers | 10 to 230 mm (or 50 to 110 mm) |
|
| Greenland ice | −20 to 90 mm | |
| Antarctic ice | −170 to 20 mm | |
| Terrestrial storage | −83 to 30 mm | |
| Ongoing contributions from ice sheets in response to past climate change | 0 to 55 mm | |
| Thawing of permafrost | 0 to 5 mm | |
| Deposition of sediment | not specified | |
| Total global-average sea level rise (IPCC result, not sum of above) | 110 to 770 mm | 90 to 880 mm (central value of 480 mm) |
The sum of these components indicates a rate of eustatic sea level rise (corresponding to a change in ocean volume) from 1910 to 1990 ranging from −0.8 to 2.2 mm/yr, with a central value of 0.7 mm/yr. The upper bound is close to the observational upper bound (2.0 mm/yr), but the central value is less than the observational lower bound (1.0 mm/yr), i.e., the sum of components is biased low compared to the observational estimates. The sum of components indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from −1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century. The estimated rate of sea-level rise from anthropogenic climate change from 1910 to 1990 (from modeling studies of thermal expansion, glaciers and ice sheets) ranges from 0.3 to 0.8 mm/yr. It is very likely that 20th century warming has contributed significantly to the observed sea-level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice.
A common perception is that the rate of sea-level rise should have accelerated during the latter half of the 20th century, but tide gauge
Tide gauge
A tide gauge is a device for measuring sea level and detecting tsunamis.Sensors continuously record the height of the water level with respect to a height reference surface close to the geoid...
data for the 20th century show no significant acceleration. Estimates obtained are based on atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (abbreviated AOGCMs) for the terms directly related to anthropogenic climate change in the 20th century, i.e., thermal expansion, ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps... The total computed rise indicates an acceleration of only 0.2 (mm/yr)/century, with a range from −1.1 to +0.7 (mm/yr)/century, consistent with observational finding of no acceleration in sea-level rise during the 20th century. The sum of terms not related to recent climate change is −1.1 to +0.9 mm/yr (i.e., excluding thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the ice sheets due to 20th century climate change). This range is less than the observational lower bound of sea level rise. Hence it is very likely that these terms alone are an insufficient explanation, implying that 20th century climate change has made a contribution to 20th century sea level rise. Recent figures of human, terrestrial impoundment came too late for the 3rd Report, and would revise levels upward for much of the 20th century.
Uncertainty in TAR sea level projections
The different SRES emissions scenarios used for the TAR sea level projections were not assigned probabilities, and no scenario is assumed by the IPCC to be more probable than another. For the first part of the 21st century, the variation between the different SRES scenarios is relatively small. The range spanned by the SRES scenarios by 2040 is only 0.02 m or less. By 2100, this range increases to 0.18 m. Of the six illustrative SRES scenarios, A1FI gives the largest sea level rise and B1 the smallest (see the SRES articleSpecial Report on Emissions Scenarios
The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios was prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2000, based on data developed at the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The emissions scenarios described in the Report have been used to make projections of possible future climate...
for a description of the different scenarios).
For the TAR sea level projections, uncertainty in the climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity is a measure of how responsive the temperature of the climate system is to a change in the radiative forcing. It is usually expressed as the temperature change associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.The equilibrium climate...
and heat uptake of the oceans, as represented by the spread of models (specifically, atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, or AOGCMs), is more important than the uncertainty from the choice of emissions scenario. This differs from the TAR's projections of global warming (i.e., the future increase in global mean temperature), where the uncertainty in emissions scenario and climate sensitivity are comparable in size.
Minority uncertainties and criticisms regarding IPCC results
- Tide records with a rate of 180 mm/century going back to the 19th century show no measurable acceleration throughout the late 19th and first half of the 20th century. The IPCC attributes about 60 mm/century to melting and other eustatic processes, leaving a residual of 120 mm of 20th century rise to be accounted for. Global ocean temperatures by Levitus et al. are in accord with coupled ocean/atmosphere modelling of greenhouseGreenhouse effectThe greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere...
warming, with heat-related change of 30 mm. Melting of polar ice sheets at the upper limit of the IPCC estimates could close the gap, but severe limits are imposed by the observed perturbations in Earth rotation. (Munk 2002) - By the time of the IPCC TAR, attribution of sea-level changes had a large unexplained gap between direct and indirect estimates of global sea-level rise. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5–2.0 mm/yr, whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea-level rise, namely mass and volume change, are significantly below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm/yr and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. One study confirmed tide gauge data is correct, and concluded there must be a continental source of 1.4 mm/yr of fresh water. (Miller 2004)
- From (Douglas 2002): "In the last dozen years, published values of 20th century GSL rise have ranged from 1.0 to 2.4 mm/yr. In its Third Assessment Report, the IPCC discusses this lack of consensus at length and is careful not to present a best estimate of 20th century GSL rise. By design, the panel presents a snapshot of published analysis over the previous decade or so and interprets the broad range of estimates as reflecting the uncertainty of our knowledge of GSL rise. We disagree with the IPCC interpretation. In our view, values much below 2 mm/yr are inconsistent with regional observations of sea-level rise and with the continuing physical response of Earth to the most recent episode of deglaciation."
- The strong 1997–1998 El Niño caused regional and global sea level variations, including a temporary global increase of perhaps 20 mm. The IPCC TAR's examination of satellite trends says the major 1997/98 El Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years...
(ENSO) event could bias the above estimates of sea-level rise and also indicate the difficulty of separating long-term trends from climatic variability.
Glacier contribution
It is well known that glacierGlacier
A glacier is a large persistent body of ice that forms where the accumulation of snow exceeds its ablation over many years, often centuries. At least 0.1 km² in area and 50 m thick, but often much larger, a glacier slowly deforms and flows due to stresses induced by its weight...
s are subject to surges in their rate of movement with consequent melting when they reach lower altitudes and/or the sea. The contributors to Annals of Glaciology http://www.igsoc.org/annals/, Volume 36 http://www.igsoc.org/annals/36/ (2003) discussed this phenomenon extensively and it appears that slow advance and rapid retreat have persisted throughout the mid to late Holocene in nearly all of Alaska's glaciers. Historical reports of surge occurrences in Iceland's glaciers go back several centuries. Thus rapid retreat can have several other causes than CO2 increase in the atmosphere.
The results from Dyurgerov show a sharp increase in the contribution of mountain and subpolar glaciers to sea level rise since 1996 (0.5 mm/yr) to 1998 (2 mm/yr) with an average of approx. 0.35 mm/yr since 1960.
Of interest also is Arendt et al., who estimate the contribution of Alaskan glaciers of 0.14±0.04 mm/yr between the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s increasing to 0.27 mm/yr in the middle and late 1990s.
Greenland contribution
Krabill et al. estimate a net contribution from GreenlandGreenland
Greenland is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of Denmark, located between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe for...
to be at least 0.13 mm/yr in the 1990s. Joughin et al. have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ
Jakobshavn Isbræ
Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq is a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. It is located near the Greenlandic town of Ilulissat and ends at the sea in the Ilulissat Icefjord....
between 1997 and 2003. This is Greenland's largest outlet glacier; it drains 6.5% of the ice sheet, and is thought to be responsible for increasing the rate of sea level rise by about 0.06 millimetre
Millimetre
The millimetre is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one thousandth of a metre, which is the SI base unit of length....
s per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th century rate of sea level increase. In 2004, Rignot et al. estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from southeast Greenland.
Rignot and Kanagaratnam produced a comprehensive study and map of the outlet glaciers and basins of Greenland. They found widespread glacial acceleration below 66 N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and that the ice sheet loss rate in that decade increased from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra 0.25 to 0.55 mm/yr of sea level rise.
In July 2005 it was reported that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland's east coast, was moving towards the sea three times faster than a decade earlier. Kangerdlugssuaq is around 1,000 m thick, 7.2 km (4.5 miles) wide, and drains about 4% of the ice from the Greenland ice sheet. Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in 1988 and 1996 showed it moving at between 5 and 6 km/yr (3.1 to 3.7 miles/yr) (in 2005 it was moving at 14 km/yr [8.7 miles/yr]).
According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment is a study describing the ongoing climate change in the Arctic and its consequences: rising temperatures, loss of sea ice, unprecedented melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and many impacts on ecosystems, animals, and people...
, climate models project that local warming in Greenland will exceed 3° Celsius
Celsius
Celsius is a scale and unit of measurement for temperature. It is named after the Swedish astronomer Anders Celsius , who developed a similar temperature scale two years before his death...
during this century. Also, ice sheet model
Ice sheet model
Ice sheet models use quantitative methods to simulate the evolution, dynamics and thermodynamics of ice sheets, such as the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet or the large ice sheets on the northern hemisphere during the last glacial period...
s project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet
Greenland ice sheet
The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering , roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its...
over several millennia, resulting in a global sea level rise of about seven metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s.
Antarctic contribution
On the Antarctic continent itself, the large volume of ice present stores around 70 % of the world's fresh water. This ice sheetIce sheet
An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km² , thus also known as continental glacier...
is constantly gaining ice from snowfall and losing ice through outflow to the sea. West Antarctica is currently experiencing a net outflow of glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. A review of the scientific studies looking at data from 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around 50 Gigatonnes of ice per year was a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm of sea level rise), although significant acceleration of outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment could have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.
East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
East Antarctic Ice Sheet
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of two large ice sheets in Antarctica, and the largest on the entire planet. The EAIS lies between 45° West and 168° East longitudinally....
as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance. However, increased ice outflow has been suggested in some regions.
In 2011 ice-penetrating radar led to the creation of the first high- resolution topographic map of one of the last uncharted regions of Earth: the Aurora Subglacial Basin, an immense ice-buried lowland in East Antarctica larger than Texas. The map reveals some of the largest fjords or ice cut channels on Earth. Because the basin lies kilometers below sea level, seawater could penetrate beneath the ice, causing portions of the ice sheet to collapse and float off to sea. The map is expected to improve models of ice sheet dynamics.
Effects of snowline and permafrost
The snowline altitude is the altitude of the lowest elevation interval in which minimum annual snow cover exceeds 50%. This ranges from about 5,500 metreMetre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s above sea-level at the equator down to sea-level at about 65° N&S latitude, depending on regional temperature amelioration effects. Permafrost then appears at sea-level and extends deeper below sea-level pole-wards. The depth of permafrost and the height of the ice-fields in both Greenland and Antarctica means that they are largely invulnerable to rapid melting. Greenland Summit is at 3,200 metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s, where the average annual temperature is minus 32 °C. So even a projected 4 °C rise in temperature leaves it well below the melting point
Melting point
The melting point of a solid is the temperature at which it changes state from solid to liquid. At the melting point the solid and liquid phase exist in equilibrium. The melting point of a substance depends on pressure and is usually specified at standard atmospheric pressure...
of ice. Frozen Ground 28, December 2004, has a very significant map of permafrost affected areas in the Arctic. The continuous permafrost zone includes all of Greenland, the North of Labrador, NW Territories, Alaska north of Fairbanks, and most of NE Siberia north of Mongolia and Kamchatka. Continental ice above permafrost is very unlikely to melt quickly. As most of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lie above the snowline and/or base of the permafrost zone, they cannot melt in a timeframe much less than several millennia; therefore they are unlikely to contribute significantly to sea-level rise in the coming century.
Polar ice
The sea level will rise above its current level if more polar ice melts. However, compared to the heights of the ice ages, today there are very few continental ice sheets remaining to be melted. It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully melted, would contribute more than 60 metreMetre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s of sea level rise, and Greenland would contribute more than 7 metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s. Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula might contribute about 0.5 metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s. While the latter figure is much smaller than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly (within the coming century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1,500 years to fully deglaciate at the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower. However, this calculation does not account for the possibility that as meltwater flows under and lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly towards the sea.
In 2002, Rignot and Thomas found that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets were losing mass, while the East Antarctic ice sheet was probably in balance (although they could not determine the sign of the mass balance for The East Antarctic ice sheet). Kwok and Comiso (J. Climate, v15, 487–501, 2002) also discovered that temperature and pressure anomalies around West Antarctica and on the other side of the Antarctic Peninsula correlate with recent Southern Oscillation events.
In 2004 Rignot et al. estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from South East Greenland. In the same year, Thomas et al. found evidence of an accelerated contribution to sea level rise from West Antarctica. The data showed that the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains which lies in the Western Hemisphere. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well...
was discharging 250 cubic kilometre
Kilometre
The kilometre is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one thousand metres and is therefore exactly equal to the distance travelled by light in free space in of a second...
s of ice every year, which was 60% more than precipitation accumulation in the catchment
Drainage basin
A drainage basin is an extent or an area of land where surface water from rain and melting snow or ice converges to a single point, usually the exit of the basin, where the waters join another waterbody, such as a river, lake, reservoir, estuary, wetland, sea, or ocean...
areas. This alone was sufficient to raise sea level at 0.24 mm/yr. Further, thinning rates for the glaciers studied in 2002–2003 had increased over the values measured in the early 1990s. The bedrock
Bedrock
In stratigraphy, bedrock is the native consolidated rock underlying the surface of a terrestrial planet, usually the Earth. Above the bedrock is usually an area of broken and weathered unconsolidated rock in the basal subsoil...
underlying the glaciers was found to be hundreds of metre
Metre
The metre , symbol m, is the base unit of length in the International System of Units . Originally intended to be one ten-millionth of the distance from the Earth's equator to the North Pole , its definition has been periodically refined to reflect growing knowledge of metrology...
s deeper than previously known, indicating exit routes for ice from further inland in the Byrd Subpolar Basin. Thus the West Antarctic ice sheet may not be as stable as has been supposed.
In 2005 it was reported that during 1992–2003, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 18 mm/yr while West Antarctica showed an overall thinning of 9 mm/yr. associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12±0.02 mm/yr.
Effects of sea level rise
Based on the projected increases stated above, the IPCC TAR WGII report (Impacts, Adaptation Vulnerability) notes that current and future climate change would be expected to have a number of impacts, particularly on coastal systems. Such impacts may include increased coastal erosionCoastal erosion
Coastal erosion is the wearing away of land and the removal of beach or dune sediments by wave action, tidal currents, wave currents, or drainage...
, higher storm-surge flooding, inhibition of primary production
Primary production
400px|thumb|Global oceanic and terrestrial photoautotroph abundance, from September [[1997]] to August 2000. As an estimate of autotroph biomass, it is only a rough indicator of primary production potential, and not an actual estimate of it...
processes, more extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality
Water quality
Water quality is the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water. It is a measure of the condition of water relative to the requirements of one or more biotic species and or to any human need or purpose. It is most frequently used by reference to a set of standards against which...
and groundwater characteristics, increased loss of property and coastal habitat
Habitat
* Habitat , a place where a species lives and grows*Human habitat, a place where humans live, work or play** Space habitat, a space station intended as a permanent settlement...
s, increased flood risk and potential loss of life, loss of nonmonetary cultural
Culture
Culture is a term that has many different inter-related meanings. For example, in 1952, Alfred Kroeber and Clyde Kluckhohn compiled a list of 164 definitions of "culture" in Culture: A Critical Review of Concepts and Definitions...
resources and values, impacts on agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture is the cultivation of animals, plants, fungi and other life forms for food, fiber, and other products used to sustain life. Agriculture was the key implement in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created food surpluses that nurtured the...
and aquaculture
Aquaculture
Aquaculture, also known as aquafarming, is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants. Aquaculture involves cultivating freshwater and saltwater populations under controlled conditions, and can be contrasted with commercial fishing, which is the...
through decline in soil
Soil
Soil is a natural body consisting of layers of mineral constituents of variable thicknesses, which differ from the parent materials in their morphological, physical, chemical, and mineralogical characteristics...
and water quality, and loss of tourism
Tourism
Tourism is travel for recreational, leisure or business purposes. The World Tourism Organization defines tourists as people "traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes".Tourism has become a...
, recreation
Recreation
Recreation is an activity of leisure, leisure being discretionary time. The "need to do something for recreation" is an essential element of human biology and psychology. Recreational activities are often done for enjoyment, amusement, or pleasure and are considered to be "fun"...
, and transportation functions.
There is an implication that many of these impacts will be detrimental—especially for the three-quarters of the world's poor who depend on agriculture systems. The report does, however, note that owing to the great diversity of coastal environments; regional and local differences in projected relative sea level and climate changes; and differences in the resilience and adaptive capacity of ecosystem
Ecosystem
An ecosystem is a biological environment consisting of all the organisms living in a particular area, as well as all the nonliving , physical components of the environment with which the organisms interact, such as air, soil, water and sunlight....
s, sectors, and countries, the impacts will be highly variable in time and space.
Statistical data on the human impact of sea level rise is scarce. A study in the April, 2007 issue of Environment and Urbanization reports that 634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9.1 m) of sea level. The study also reported that about two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas. The IPCC report of 2007 estimated that accelerated melting of the Himalayan ice caps and the resulting rise in sea levels would likely increase the severity of flooding in the short term during the rainy season and greatly magnify the impact of tidal storm surges during the cyclone season. A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal would put 11 percent of the Bangladesh's coastal land underwater, creating 7 to 10 million climate refugee
Climate refugee
Environmental migrant refers to the people who are purportedly forced to migrate from or flee their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment, which is held to include increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and disruption of seasonal weather patterns...
s.
Island nations
IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small islandIsland
An island or isle is any piece of sub-continental land that is surrounded by water. Very small islands such as emergent land features on atolls can be called islets, cays or keys. An island in a river or lake may be called an eyot , or holm...
states are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise caused by both thermal expansion and ocean volume. Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven to have directly resulted in environmental, humanitarian, or economic losses to small island states, but the IPCC and other bodies have found this a serious risk scenario in coming decades.
Many media reports have focused the island nations of the Pacific, notably the Polynesian islands of Tuvalu
Tuvalu
Tuvalu , formerly known as the Ellice Islands, is a Polynesian island nation located in the Pacific Ocean, midway between Hawaii and Australia. Its nearest neighbours are Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa and Fiji. It comprises four reef islands and five true atolls...
, which based on more severe flooding events in recent years, was thought to be "sinking" due to sea level rise. A scientific review in 2000 reported that based on University of Hawaii
University of Hawaii
The University of Hawaii System, formally the University of Hawaii and popularly known as UH, is a public, co-educational college and university system that confers associate, bachelor, master, and doctoral degrees through three university campuses, seven community college campuses, an employment...
gauge data, Tuvalu had experienced a negligible increase in sea-level of 0.07 mm a year over the past two decades, and that ENSO
Enso
Ensō is a Japanese word meaning "circle" and a concept strongly associated with Zen. Ensō is one of the most common subjects of Japanese calligraphy even though it is a symbol and not a character. It symbolizes the Absolute enlightenment, strength, elegance, the Universe, and the void; it can...
had been a larger factor in Tuvalu's higher tides in recent years. A subsequent study by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania, however, adjusted for ENSO
Enso
Ensō is a Japanese word meaning "circle" and a concept strongly associated with Zen. Ensō is one of the most common subjects of Japanese calligraphy even though it is a symbol and not a character. It symbolizes the Absolute enlightenment, strength, elegance, the Universe, and the void; it can...
effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking). Hunter concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of about 1.2 mm per year. The recent more frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to an erosion
Erosion
Erosion is when materials are removed from the surface and changed into something else. It only works by hydraulic actions and transport of solids in the natural environment, and leads to the deposition of these materials elsewhere...
al loss of land during and following the actions of 1997 cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli.
Numerous options have been proposed that would assist island nations to adapt
Adaptation to global warming
Adaptation to global warming and climate change is a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, climate change and its effects will last many years, and adaptation will...
to rising sea level.
Satellite sea level measurement
Current rates of sea level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated in the range of 2.9–3.4 ± 0.4–0.6 mm per year for 1993–2010. This exceeds those from tide gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an increase over the last decades; variability; true differences between satellites and tide gauges; or problems with satellite calibrationCalibration
Calibration is a comparison between measurements – one of known magnitude or correctness made or set with one device and another measurement made in as similar a way as possible with a second device....
. Knowing the current altitude of a satellite which can measure sea level to a precision of about 20 millimetre
Millimetre
The millimetre is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one thousandth of a metre, which is the SI base unit of length....
s (e.g. the Topex/Poseidon
TOPEX/Poseidon
Launched in 1992, TOPEX/Poseidon was a joint satellite mission between NASA, the U.S. space agency, and CNES, the French space agency, to map ocean surface topography. The first major oceanographic research vessel to sail into space, TOPEX/Poseidon helped revolutionize oceanography by proving the...
system) is primarily complicated by orbital decay
Orbital decay
Orbital decay is the process of prolonged reduction in the altitude of a satellite's orbit.This can be due to drag produced by an atmosphere due to frequent collisions between the satellite and surrounding air molecules. The drag experienced by the object is larger in the case of increased solar...
and the difference between the assumed orbit and the earth geoid
Geoid
The geoid is that equipotential surface which would coincide exactly with the mean ocean surface of the Earth, if the oceans were in equilibrium, at rest , and extended through the continents . According to C.F...
. This problem is partially corrected by regular re-calibration of satellite altimeters from land stations whose height from MSL is known by surveying
Surveying
See Also: Public Land Survey SystemSurveying or land surveying is the technique, profession, and science of accurately determining the terrestrial or three-dimensional position of points and the distances and angles between them...
. Over water, the height is calibrated from tide gauge data which is needed to correct for tides and atmospheric effects on sea level.
Individual studies
Ablain et al. (2008) looked at trends in mean sea level (MSL). A global MSL curve was plotted using data for the 1993 to 2008 time period. Their estimates for mean rate of sea level rise over this time period was 3.11 mm per year. A correction was applied to this resulting in a higher estimate of 3.4 mm per year. Over the 2005 to 2008 time period, the MSL rate was estimated to be 1.09 mm per year. This is a reduction of 60% on the rate observed between 1993–2005.MSL was also plotted using data between the years 1994 and 2007. Their data for this time period show two peaks (maxima
Maxima and minima
In mathematics, the maximum and minimum of a function, known collectively as extrema , are the largest and smallest value that the function takes at a point either within a given neighborhood or on the function domain in its entirety .More generally, the...
) in MSL rates for the years 1997 and 2002. These maxima very likely reflected the influence of the ENSO on MSL. Using the 1994–2007 MSL data, they estimated MSL rates using moving windows of 3 years and 5 years. Lower rates were observed during La Niña
La Niña
La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C...
events in 1999 and 2007. They concluded that the recently observed reduction in the MSL rate was likely to be real, since it concided with an exceptionally strong La Niña event. Preliminary analyses suggested that an acceleration of the MSL trend would likely occur in relationship with the end of the 2007–2008 La Niña event.
White (2011) reported measurements of near-global sea level made using satellite altimeters. Over the time period January 1993 to April 2011, these data show a steady increase in global mean sea level (GMSL) of around 3.2 mm per year, with a range of plus or minus 0.4 mm per year. This is 50% larger than the average rate observed over the 20th century. White (2011) was, however, unsure of whether or not this represented a long-term increase in the rate.
The Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales/Collecte Localisation Satellites (CNES/CLS, 2011) reported on the estimated increase in GMSL between 1993 and 2011. Their estimate was an increase of 3.22 mm per year, with an error range in this trend
Trend estimation
Trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as a time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data...
(i.e., the slope over the 1993 to 2011 time period) of approximately 0.6 mm per year.
The CU Sea Level Research Group (CUSLRG, 2011) estimated the rate of GMSL between 1993 and 2011. The rate was estimated at 3.2 mm per year, with a range of plus or minus 0.4 mm per year.
The Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry (LSA, 2011) estimated the trend in GMSL over the time period 1992 to 2011. Their estimate was a trend of 2.9 mm per year, with a range of plus or minus 0.4 mm per year. According to the LSA (2011): "[the] estimates of sea level rise do not include glacial isostatic adjustment effects on the geoid, which are modeled to be +0.2 to +0.5 mm/year when globally averaged."
See also
- 8.2 kiloyear event8.2 kiloyear eventThe 8.2 kiloyear event is the term that climatologists have adopted for a sudden decrease in global temperatures that occurred approximately 8,200 years before the present, or c. 6,200 BCE, and which lasted for the next two to four centuries...
- Antarctic Cold ReversalAntarctic Cold ReversalThe Antarctic Cold Reversal was an important episode of cooling in the climate history of the Earth, during the deglaciation at the close of the last ice age. It illustrates the complexity of the climate changes at the transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene Epoch.The Last Glacial Maximum...
- Islands FirstIslands FirstIslands First is a recently founded non-governmental organization working on behalf of the Small Island Developing States to confront the challenges of climate change, the depletion of ocean resources , and ocean level's rise.- Background and Mission :Small island countries have been the first to...
- Transgression (geology)Transgression (geology)A marine transgression is a geologic event during which sea level rises relative to the land and the shoreline moves toward higher ground, resulting in flooding. Transgressions can be caused either by the land sinking or the ocean basins filling with water...
- Older Peron transgressionOlder PeronThe Older Peron transgression was a period of unusually warm climate during the Holocene Epoch. It began in the 5000 BCE to 4900 BCE era, and lasted to about 4100 BCE...
- Retreat of glaciers since 1850Retreat of glaciers since 1850The retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects the availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use, mountain recreation, animals and plants that depend on glacier-melt, and in the longer term, the level of the oceans...
- Standard sea levelStandard sea levelStandard Sea Level defines a set of conditions for physical calculations.The term standard sea level is used to indicate that values of properties are to be taken to be the same as those standard at sea level, and is done to define values for use in general calculations.-Atmospheric properties:At...
- Coastal DevelopmentCoastal development hazardsA coastal development hazard can be defined as the likelihood of an event or incident occurring multiplied by the seriousness of the event or incident if it occurred. The seriousness is controlled by how vulnerable the adversely affected party was to the hazard...
- Coastal sediment supplyCoastal sediment supplyCoastal sediment supply is the transport of sediment to the beach environment by both fluvial and aeolian transport. While aeolian transport plays a role in the overall sedimentary budget for the coastal environment, it is paled in comparison to the fluvial supply which makes up 95% of sediment...
Further reading
- Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, "Mean Sea Level" Accessed December 19, 2005
- Fahnestock, Mark (December 4, 2004), "Report shows movement of glacier has doubled speed", University of New HampshireUniversity of New HampshireThe University of New Hampshire is a public university in the University System of New Hampshire , United States. The main campus is in Durham, New Hampshire. An additional campus is located in Manchester. With over 15,000 students, UNH is the largest university in New Hampshire. The university is...
press release. Accessed December 19, 2005 - National Snow and Ice Data Center (March 14, 2005), "Is Global Sea Level Rising?". Accessed December 19, 2005
- Pilkey, Orrin and Robert Young, The Rising Sea, Shearwater, July 2009 ISBN 978-1597261913
External links
- Technical Considerations for Use of Geospatial Data in Sea Level Change Mapping and Assessment NOAA Technical Report NOS 2010–01
- Sea Level Rise:Understanding the past – Improving projections for the future
- Providing new homes for climate exiles Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, 2006
- Sea Level Rise – Cluster of Excellence "Future Ocean", University of KielUniversity of KielThe University of Kiel is a university in the city of Kiel, Germany. It was founded in 1665 as the Academia Holsatorum Chiloniensis by Christian Albert, Duke of Holstein-Gottorp and has approximately 23,000 students today...
- New perspectives for the future of the Maldives Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Göran Possnert, 2004
- Changes in the Earth's shorelines during the past 20 kyr caused by the deglaciation of the Late Pleistocene ice sheets, from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea LevelPermanent Service for Mean Sea LevelThe Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level , established in 1933, is a repository for tide gauge data used in the measurement of long-term sea level change...
- Indigenous Aboriginal Australian Perspective on Sea Level Changes: Video
- Includes picture of sea level for past 20 kyr based on barbados coral record
- Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation
- Sea level rise FAQ (1997)
- The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
- The GLOSS Station Handbook
- The Sinking of Tuvalu
- Sea level rise Center for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets – Maps, Animations, GIS Layers
- Tides and Sea Level Rise Model
Maps that show a Rise in Sea Levels:
- Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer Displays potential future sea levels, provides simulations of sea level rise at local landmarks, communicates the spatial uncertainty of mapped sea levels, models potential marsh migration due to sea level rise, overlays social and economic data onto potential sea level rise, and examines how tidal flooding will become more frequent with sea level rise NOAA Coastal Services Center.
- Sea Level Rise of up to 14m – meltdown of Greenlandic ice shield
- World Maps for a sea level rise in 60m – meltdown of the antarctic ice shield
- Hazard map showing variable sea level rise and earthquake impacts, developed by CyArkCyArkCyArk is a 501 nonprofit organization located in Oakland, California, United States. The company's website refers to it as a "digital archive of the world’s heritage sites for preservation and education"...
to demonstrate potential impact of climate change (and earthquakes) on World Heritage Sites - Sea Levels Online: National Ocean Service (CO-OPS), displays local sea level rise and sea level trends via a map interface
- Sea Level Rise Planning Maps County and state scale maps showing which lands below 5 meters are likely and unlikely to be protected from a rising sea, according to study funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.